(Imagine the above as the voice of shaggy from Scooby Doo)

Today I’d like to take every to a different time.

It was a simplier time. A time when there was no quaterback controversy. A time when the defense was better than bending. A time when Tedford was still above reproach and everything he touched turned to gold… with one exception: Joseph Ayoob.

What… did you think I was talking about 2004?

No, I’m talking about 2005. A team that may just have been Cal’s best team ever if one projects that Longshore would have played as well in 2005 as he did in 2006. That team had everything. It had a great defense (Mebane, Hughes, Mixon, Bishop, Tafisi, McCluskey, Foltz… man they were ALL good). It had the same wide receiver core as today, albeit a little less polished. It had probably the best offensive line in the Pac-10 in over a decade (Merz, O’Callaghan, Phillip, et. al.). It even had a mostly injury free Marshawn Lynch. Yup, it had everything EXCEPT a quarterback.

After going 5-0 against a pretty weak set of opponents, the lack of a quarterback sacked Cal in two consecutive games against UCLA and Oregon State. Everyone was crushed. The Bears had fallen out of the top-25, something they’d been in every week for more than a year. Was it time to sit the QB, the ONLY QB the Bears really had? Washington State was coming to town and everyone feared that the once great Bears were going to lose, that the Bears would turn into an absolute disgrace.

Sound familiar?

Yes, 2007 has a surprisingly 2005 feel to it. Of course the big difference is that Ayoob was completely healthy and unable to perform whereas Longshore has been hampered by injury adding a lot of questions marks as to whether a turn around is in the making as his injuries heal without going to the level of benching him in favor of the backup.

No matter what the cause of the 2005/2007 collapses, I’m confident about one thing: WSU is the perfect team to undo the odd year blues. This is a pretty weak team and one that if the Bears come to play at all, will win with ease. Don’t even bother with the “they beat UCLA” comments or the “their run defense seems pretty stout”… that’s all garbage thinking. They’re beating UCLA has more to do with UCLA’s inconsistency and Cal’s inability to beat a remarkably mediocre team than it has anything to do with WSU. The run defense isn’t stout, just the worse of the two alternatives for opponents who are able to light them up in the air. Also, this is a team that hasn’t won on the road yet (that’s the counter to the “they took ASU to the brink” argument as well). Average score of their road games you ask? Try 15-47 including a humiliating 20-48 loss to Arizona.

Add in that the Bears are hungry and there is nothing better than WSU to end an odd year hibernation. Bears win this in a walk: 31-10 (sticking with my preseason prediction)

After last weeks performance against UCLA I’m feeling a little gun-shy. I mean, with the OSU game I predicted a victory, heck even a big victory, but I did have the appropriate caveats in there to not feel horrible about the end result. I also did that preview with the assumption that Longshore was back and healthy. As a result, I felt pretty comfortable with the mis-call. Last week however, I couldn’t have been more wrong:

The lone area of risk for the Bears is whether their running game can get the job done against the supposedly stout UCLA run defense. While I’m not as confident about this as I am about the above topics, I’m still not worried much about it. I’ve been through too many “this run defense is going to be tough” games where Forsett put up his usually terrific numbers to be concerned about it. Forsett is on track for a 1500 yard season plus whatever he could do in a bowl game. Forsett had 60 yards on 11 carries last year in relief of Lynch in the UCLA game, against what is basically the same defensive personel.

So call me Mr. Confident: 35-13 (revised up Cal offensive score from 24-13 beginning of season prediction)

Can I say “OUCH” one more time?

So what are we to make of the Bears? Are they just a team and a coaching staff that’s been out of sync for two games because of quarterback issues? I mean, it seems to me that Tedford’s play-calling issues could easily be attributed to him trying to game plan around Longshore’s injury. Also, Longshore hadn’t taken many snaps in practice in the last 3 weeks, perhaps that affected things as well. Whatever the case, there is an argument that could be made that once everyone is back to full strength the players and coaches will get back to their winning ways.

Or will they?

Perhaps Oregon laid an egg against a mediocre Cal team. I mean, they laid an egg against Cal the preceeding season. Maybe the difference was that a laid egg made the game close instead of a blowout in Oregon’s favor. Outside of Oregon, there’s not much on the Cal resume that is all that impressive. Tennessee is the lone candidate for impressive, but they’re not ranked anymore and have lost to just about everyone besides Georgia that is any good. The other teams on Cal’s schedule have been really stinking it up.

So I don’t know what to think. It seems to me that this offense should be every bit as good as last year. They’ve got too many weapons and too many of the same players, a couple of linemen being the exception, not to be. So it seems to me that they’ve got the potential to be as great as everyone has assumed they were before the last two losses. However, people had forgotten just how young and inexperienced our defense is. When you lose Mebane, Bishop and Hughes, it’s going to make a dent. Let’s not forget that all three of our linebackers, despite being very talented, are still first year starters. 3 of our defensive linemen are also new to the starting lineup and a couple are even new to significant playing time as well.

So it seems to me that this year’s team can only be counted on to score consistently, not shut them down defensively. If their is a hitch in the offense, like losing your quarterback, the team is very vulnerable. My perspective is that I think/hope the offense will get back on track tomorrow and the bend but don’t break defense will do well enough to give our offense plenty of opportunities to win, even win handily.

My prediction: 31-17 Bears… and I hope the Bears don’t make me look foolish.

For the first time since the Colorado State game I won’t be in person to watch the Bears… something I loath. TV coverage is designed for the ‘lay watcher’ not for someone who actually wants to understand what’s going on in the game. It’s REALLY frustrating to me to watch pass plays because I’m forced into this artificial suspense because I can’t see the coverage. All I can see is whether a sack may be coming, an unlikely occurance with the two pass-rushes matched up on Saturday. This was supposed to be the year I went to a bunch of away games but my wife’s pregnancy and her master’s thesis have taken presidence, as they should. Nevertheless it is frustrating to see my brother go on the road to the Rose Bowl while I get to watch at home. I’ll make sure to text message him during important plays with “important” info that’ll keep him distracted just to spite him (Hey Bro: your roommate called me… is there supposed to be a big scratch on the side of your car?).

Luckily, I don’t think I’m going to miss an exciting game. Either the Bears are going to win this one in a walk or it is going to be one of the most boring upsets in Cal/UCLA history.

Perhaps I just don’t have enough confidence in UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell’s ability to manage injuries, but I’m 95% confident that Pat Cowan, the announced starter for UCLA will be a non-factor in this game. Yeah, at the post-Thursday practice Dorrell was all grins and giggles saying that Cowan did a “tremendous job” at practice this weeek, but call me skeptical for one of three reasons:

1. He won’t play at all because the injury isn’t healed
2. He’ll play but be hobbling around because the injury isn’t healed
3. He’ll get re-injured because the injury isn’t healed and/or their offensive line stinks

I mean, something is up at UCLA with their quarterbacks. They have WAY too many injuries and it seems to happen every year. Heck, they make Stanford look like the safe place to play QB. I mean in that same post practice interview Dorrell also went so far as to name a backup to the backup saying “Osaar Rasshan will be our third if need be.” What kind of confidence is that!?! When one puts that all together my gut says that Cowan’s backup Bethel-Thompson, otherwise known as “the lawfirm of McLeod, Bethel and Thompson” will be playing the majority of the game. For those of you who didn’t see the UCLA vs. Notre Dame game (remember this was Notre Dame’s ONLY victory), Bethel-Thompson was HORRIBLE. I’m not talking about a put my brother back there and see how bad it is… no this is far worse… this is I sure hope that lawfirm pays the bills awful.

Add in that their starting running back, Chris Markey is injured putting junior Kahlil Bell in the starting role against Cal’s stout run defense (Markey may get some playing time) and I’m pretty confident that Cal will win this one with either Riley or Longshore behind center. Heck, even if Cowan plays and plays his best, I still think either Riley or Longshore will out duel him. Cowan has only played in one game this season and wasn’t exactly brilliant in either that game or his playing time last season.

The lone area of risk for the Bears is whether their running game can get the job done against the supposedly stout UCLA run defense. While I’m not as confident about this as I am about the above topics, I’m still not worried much about it. I’ve been through too many “this run defense is going to be tough” games where Forsett put up his usually terrific numbers to be concerned about it. Forsett is on track for a 1500 yard season plus whatever he could do in a bowl game. Forsett had 60 yards on 11 carries last year in relief of Lynch in the UCLA game, against what is basically the same defensive personel.

So call me Mr. Confident: 35-13 (revised up Cal offensive score from 24-13 beginning of season prediction)

It’s that time of the week where I can let loose and give my prediction for the Bears upcoming game.

But first, and I’m sure you all needed reminding of this, let’s look at Cal’s last game and whether my prediction was accurate. While I’m sure you’re all willing to grant me a moment of crowing about that, I feel obligated to remind everyone that I not only picked that score in my pre-game prediction, but also in my August season predictions AND also all the way back in my post Spring practice predictions on May 10th. Put that in your pipe and smoke it! 🙂

OK, down to business…

OSU is a hard team to predict because you never know which OSU is going to show up. Is it going to be the OSU that upsets a pretty good USC last October, or the one that got crushed by both Boise St. and Cal earlier in the same year? The same trend continues this year with them laying down a woodshed beating of Utah, the same team that took UCLA to their own woodshed out back, as well as Arizona and a 61-10 beat down of Idaho State but also getting creamed by UCLA 14-40 (if one ever needed a proof of the ridiculousness of A>B>C arguments, there’s an ideal candidate OSU>Utah>UCLA>OSU, and each of the games were blowouts) and a 3-34 loss to Cincinnati that would be very troubling if Cincinnati wasn’t 6-0 with a victory over Big East darling Rutgers and ranked 15th.

I mostly stand behind what I said in my Rivals article, that all of OSU’s hopes rest on a dominating run defense and playing a mistake and turnover free game, with two additions/clarifiers (as a quick aside, writing an article is a much more difficult proposition than a blog post because it needs to be concise with only two or three themes at the most and must tell a “story”… none of these asides or anything… so I often have to leave out aspects that I would include in a blog post):

1. OSU will have to successfully defend the passing game of Cal. Last year Cal demolished OSU by going over the top and beating them through the air. They didn’t have to beat their run defense. OSU needs to not only have a dominating run defense but they can’t have a repeat of last year’s pass defense. If for some reason Longshore doesn’t start that may be just what OSU needs, or it may turn out that they get burned just as bad by Riley. In either case, Cal is too balanced to be beat by OSU’s usual strategy of loading the box like it’s a telephone booth outside a frat house and challenging the offense to beat them with all of the heat coming. OSU will have to do better than that, particularly with Longshore behind center.
2. OSU’s run defense isn’t as good as the numbers indicate. While I think they are a good run defense, perhaps the best Cal has seen so far, there’s two big pieces of misleading info in OSU’s impressive 43.3 yards per game allowed. First, the offenses they’ve faced are only rushing for 125 yards per game themselves. While that’s not horrible, it’s kind of mediocre and a good run defense should be able to shut them down. Second, OSU has gotten a ton of sack yardage which subtracts from the run total. The worst example is that Arizona had 84 yards of rushing that shows up statistically as 9 yards because of the 75 yards off of sacks. Without the sacks, OSU would be giving up 80 yards per game, which although still good, isn’t nearly as impressive considering they did it against teams rushing for 125 yards per game. Said another way, if OSU holds Cal to the same 2/3rds of their average rushing total that they held their other opponents, Cal will still get 140 yards on the ground. So, while I still think this is a key to OSU having a shot at the upset, what I’m saying is that I don’t think it is as likely as both my article and the numbers suggest.

So, yes, I’m predicting a Cal victory but I’m going to revise my pre-season prediction (21-16) and predict a 31-16 victory.

I don’t know anything beyond what other reporters are reporting (I haven’t been going to the press-conferences this year), but it seems from what I’ve read that Longshore is going to start. In fact, I think the only reason there is any doubt is because Tedford loves playing mind games with his opponents. But just to be comprehensive here are the various words on the street:

Jonathan Okanes – CC Times:

Tedford said he may have quarterback Nate Longshore do a little more in practice today. Longshore has just been participating in the mental side of practice since suffering a sprained ankle against Oregon. I asked Tedford how much Longshore would have to test out the ankle before Saturday’s game against Oregon State.

“It’s getting better every day,” Tedford said. “We just don’t want to have a setback. He’s taken every mental rep. He’s calling every play. He’s staying ready.”

Chris Nguon – Rivals:

Longshore took a handful of reps early in practice and seemed to step into throws just fine.

Despite his ankle still being a little sore though, Tedford mentioned that he expects Longshore to be ready come Saturday.

“His ankle is getting better everyday,” Tedford said. “We just don’t want to do something stupid to set him back again.”

Rusty Simmons – SF Chronicle:

coach Jeff Tedford still isn’t sure whether he’ll be able to play against Oregon State on Saturday.

“He’s making progress,” Tedford said. “It’ll go right up to game time. We’ll see; I really have no idea.”

Tedford said pain and mobility will both be taken into account. The biggest problem the iffy right ankle can cause a right-handed quarterback is planting and pushing off the foot on throws.

Longshore, who maintains he’ll be ready, appeared to handle all of those aspects OK. After gingerly walking down the stadium steps to get to practice, Longshore showed off his footwork to Tedford while the rest of the team stretched.

Longshore was a little hesitant on some of his drops, but he threw crisp passes. He had been throwing regularly, but he got his first five snaps with the first-team offense in nearly two weeks.

My guess is that not only will Longshore start, but that we’ll have no idea he was ever injured once he takes the first snap. Tedford has been really conservative with injured players the last couple years after too many players were hampered by injuries for the whole season when rushing back too quick in his first few seasons as head coach. As such, he spends a lot of time telling everyone how unlikely it is that players will be playing when they’re pretty likely to be starting. I will say this, if Cal opens up a sizeable lead and Longshore is experiencing any pain, we may get our first real glimpse of Riley. Let’s hope he looks better than he did in his VERY limited action to date (and I want to be clear that it is unfair to judge him on so few throws).

Most of you will understand the mind set of long-time Cal fans. Those who have been riding this horse only since Tedford arrived, you won’t understand. Those of you who are Cubs fans (or, let’s face it, Giants fans like me) will understand it.

We are always waiting for the other shoe to drop. For the inevitable disappointment that comes with being a Cal fan. This is a mental illness that really can only be cured by one of two events occurring. First, a Cal appearance in the Rose Bowl. Or second, death.

This is why I don’t pick the results of Cal games beforehand.

Scenario #1: Cal is favored by a huge margin against an overmatched team.

Who I think will win: Cal.

Who I hope will win: Cal.

In this scenario, I can pick a Cal victory, but I’m just telling you things you already know. And I risk jinxing it for all those who are stitious, or even superstitious. (Little Office reference there.)

Scenario #2: Cal is favored by a little, or the underdog.

Who I think will win: Not Cal.

Who I hope will win: Cal.

In this scenario, which covers almost every game Cal plays, this is what I’m left with. I’m convinced that things are going to go wrong and that Cal is going to be handed a loss. At the same time, I’m desperately hopeful that nobody will wake me from this wonderful dream and Cal will actually continue winning.

Again, though, my pick-analysis is entirely meaningless, crippled as it is by my pathological belief that Cal is finding the cruelest, most horrible way to disappoint me. And trust me, you don’t want to see that, and I don’t want to do that in public.

Though blogging about Cal seems an odd choice for me to make, given all that, don’t you think?

CAL VERSUS OREGON: WHO WILL WIN?

The I’ve-been-here-since-the-days-of-Kapp pick: Oregon 37, Cal 35. (Tiny voice in my head says: Oregon 45, Cal 17. Shut up, tiny voice!)

The oh-god-oh-god-don’t-jinx-it pick: Cal 35, Oregon 34.

It’s late in the game. Cal leads by one. Oregon lines up for a field goal from a moderate distance. There’s the snap, the hold, the kick… it’s up, and…

Your guess is as good as mine.

Obviously with the Cal vs Oregon game being so huge every commentator and their brother has had something to say. Some are saying that nothing has changed from last year. Some are saying Oregon is miles better than last year. Others think Cal just doesn’t have the consistency this year to put Oregon away like they did last year. Still others think it is all about home field advantage.

Put me in the “nothing has changed” group with one glaring exception: I think that last year’s game, had it been played multiple times, wouldn’t have been a blowout and wouldn’t necessarily have gone Cals way every time. That game turned on that first interception. Dixon never got his confidence back after that. While I still suspect that Dixon is easily rattled when he makes a mistake, I’m not so confident to suggest that he’s going to make a similarly high profile, confidence killing mistake this year. In fact, I’m confident that at home, without the crowd noise, I think it is a lot less likely he’ll make that kind of a mistake. Without that blow, I think the teams are more equally matched.

The other thing that most pundits are getting wrong in my humble opinion is the score. I don’t think Cal scored 45 points last year because it was a dominating offensive performace. No, while it was a good offensive performance, Oregon’s offensive mistakes gave Cal far more scoring opportunities than it deserved. The Oregon defense was on the field A LOT last year with too many short fields to defend. When facing a good offense, a defense just isn’t going to be able to hold up forever without some support on offense to give the defense some time to rest and a long field to defend.

At the same time, I think Cal’s defense is up to the challenge of Oregon, just like it was last year. People keep quoting Oregon’s offensive numbers… frankly, one of two things are true: Either Oregon has the most prolific offense in the history of college football or Oregon has played some very suspect defenses. Remember that Bellotti doesn’t have Tedford’s “let’s just grind out this easy win” mindset. He’s a “stick a dagger in them one more time” coach. I’m not being critical, I’m just pointing to the facts. Oregon will continue to put in their starters and be running aggressive plays long after Tedford has re-geared to a conservative offense. As a result of this different, forgive me for not being tremendously impressed with Oregon’s numbers. I think the Cal defense has what it takes to keep them to a sub 30 point score.

Finally, we need to remember that last year is the anomaly of the Tedford vs. Bellotti matchup. Here’s a question for everyone: What’s the highest score outside of last year’s 45? Try 28. That’s the HIGHEST score. For those who doubt me: 2003 -> 17-21, 2004: 28-27, 2005: 20-27 (tied 20-20 before overtime) and 2006: 45-24. This matchup traditionally has been a defensive struggle. Tedford and Bellotti know each other too well to be blown out by the other. Despite the fact that during that time both Cal and Oregon had some of the most potent offenses that the Pac-10 has seen in recent history, neither Tedford nor Bellotti have been able to outwit the other enough to blow out their old friend. That’s what made last years debacle so bad.

So, while nothing has changed since last year, I think last year’s game didn’t reflect the actual talent and Cal fans shouldn’t be too smug about the superiority of the 2006 Bears over the 2006 Ducks. What I will say is that Tedford is likely going to try his hardest to make sure that Dixon loses his confidence again. Expect to see large doses of blitzing and loaded defensive plays to induce Dixon into a confidence killing mistake.

Cal 31, Oregon 24.

It’s been a long time since I’ve gone to a rainy Cal game, but I think we’re going to get one today. When I missed a game in 2001 after my daughter was born, it rained, and the winless Bears got thumped by USC. Not sorry I missed that one. I recall a game a few years back when, sadly, it was sunny in Marin when we left to go to the game, but that metaphorical black cloud that hung over Cal Football for so many years turned out to be non-metaphorical and full of rain. That was a bad day.

But today? I’ll be prepared with my nice blue raincoat (I kind of wanted the green one, but what if it rains when we play Oregon? So blue it is — this explains why everything I own is blue.) and my nice blue rain pants that keep my pants warm but make me squeak when I walk. Such is the price of comfort.

Rain aside, I’m feeling pretty good about today’s matchup. Go Bears!

Are you ready for a beat-down?

I think there’s no other way to say this than that. I had more concerns about both Colorado State and Louisiana Tech than I do about Arizona. I feel that way because I know that the team isn’t taking Arizona that lightly after last year’s debacle. Let’s look at some of the factors that point to a Cal beat-down victory:

• Arizona is only averaging 26.3 points per game, and only 17 points per game if you take out their hollow victory over I-AA Northern Arizona.
• Their loses are to 1-2 BYU and 2-1 New Mexico. Said another way, between Arizona and their opponents, the only I-A victory outside of the 3 is New Mexico over New Mexico State
• Their defense gave up 24 points to Northern Arizona.
• Their offense is only rushing for 75.7 yards per game.

I could go on and on.

This is one horrible team. I mean, just look at my head to head stats page. The supposed strength of their team has turned out to be their weakness, if that’s at all possible. Their new spread offense isn’t working, and they’re throwing the ball so much it’ll be easy for the Bears to sit back in zone coverage and keep them under control all day. Add in that my gut says that the Cal offense will hit its stride this week and I’m thinking 50 points may be a conservative number, not so much because they’ll deserve that many points, but because they’ll be a lot of 3 and outs on the other side of the ball. Finally add in that Arizona is clearly demoralized after starting the season with mildly high expectations and all Cal has to do is put up a couple of easy scores early and this game is over.

Nope, no repeat this year. Arizona is going down and going down hard.

Cal 45, Arizona 10 (revised up from my Pick’Em pick of 24-10 now that it’s clear the Arizona defense isn’t going to measure up)

Now that the stats section is up and running, I can link to the comparison stats for Cal and Louisiana Tech. Go take a look. Unfortunately, the statistics are misleading because they only include one game: Hawaii. Since their other opponent was a I-AA team, the stats available to me (at least the ones I’m grabbing) aren’t comprehensive enough to be easily usable.

What seems to be impressive about LT is their offense. They’ve put up a ton of points and they’ve done it against a team that is more stingy, at least by the numbers, than Cal’s opponents. Their offense is also balanced, rushing for slightly more yards per game than they pass for. What is not so impressive is their yards per play, across the board. Theyr’e in the middling 4 1/2 yards per play range for all three categories (overall, passing, rushing), which isn’t that good. The final qualifier is their opponents, particularly defensively. Central Arkansas is, well, Central Arkansas, but Hawaii is the more deceptive one. This is a team that is ranked 20th and has been on fire for the last couple years. The caveat is they’ve been doing it by putting up tons of points, not by doing anything meaningful on defense. Theyr’e the classic WAC “win the shootout” team.

So, while it appears that LT may be able to compete offensively, there are also reasons to be suspicious of that conclusion.

Things get worse for LT on defense, although the qualifiers from above are reversed. It’s hard to be too concerned about a defense that yields 45 points to anyone, but we have to remember that Hawaii routinely posts 45 on their opponents. Hawaii put up 63 on Northern Colorado. So just how bad is the LT defense? One really doesn’t know. They held Central Arkansas to 7 points and gave up 45 to Hawaii. How does one quantify the implications of that?

I think the answer is that we don’t. We’re left with guesses and qualitative analysis.

Overall, I think the LT offense is potent enough to ensure the final score doesn’t look like a huge blowout unless the Cal offense puts up ridiculously big numbers. While I think this game will be an easy one for Cal, it’ll also look closer on the scoreboard than it should, particularly because of Tedford’s conservative play calling in low-risk games. Expect to see a game similar to Colorado State, minus the end of game secondary breakdowns and the slow start. Also expect to see Tedford take his foot off the accelerator in the mid-3rd quarter once the game is locked up.

Cal 35, LT 17

It’s hard to get too excited about the Colorado State game, particularly after last week’s game versus Tennessee. This is not like last year where the game versus Portland State had some intrigue because we didn’t know if the Bears were going to be able to continue their rebound from the Tennessee game. Was Minnesota a fluke? Just how good a I-AA team was Portland State?

This year we get none of that. Cal stomped Tennessee and is set for a great run if it can play up to its potential. Add in that Cal has ZERO history of falling for non-conference trap games, and it’s easy to see why there’s not much talk about Colorado State.

Here’s what we know about Colorado State:

• They’ve lost 8 in a row.
• They collapsed last week versus Colorado, one of the weakest Big 12 teams ever since the scandals of a number of years back.
• Colorado State can’t fill their statium of 34k, even for Cal which is a big enough deal that they’re having some kinda parade in town.
• They play in the Mountain West and aren’t even very good in that conference

That’s about it.

OK, that’s all we know about them that makes them unenviable. We also know this:

• They seem to be a run heavy team, with 55 rush attempts and 27 pass attempts in their last game
• They have a small offensive line with only one guy over 300.
• Their defensive line isn’t so small.
• Their QB was last years starter and had a 61% completion ratio.
• And finally, They won the last meeting versus the Bears 23-21 less than a month before the Bears upset USC in 2003.

Many are predicting a big blowout for this one. Me, while I don’t think this game will ever be in doubt, I suspect that Tedford will call this game very conservatively once he builds a lead. I expect to see a lot of Montgomery in this one. I also expect to see some defensive line rotations to get the young guys some time. Generally, once this one is in the bag, which I expect to happen before halftime, we’re going to see a lot of experience building.

I also expect to see a lot of the run game, even early in the game. The passing game is so much more risky. How often do you see a running back fumble and the ball taken back for a TD? A lot less often than a interception for a TD. Tedford has always been a run first guy and I expect that to continue even if Colorado State loads the box. Until they can prove to Tedford that it’s not going to work, which I doubt they can even by loading the box, Tedford’s going to ram it down their throats.

Call it a conservative blowout: 38-13.

It will be interesting to see how the game day experience this year compares to the one that Phil and I had last year in Knoxville. Note I said game day experience. I don’t think the actual game experience could get much worse, unless Longshore breaks two bones, Forsett is abducted by aliens, and DeSean Jackson suits up for the Vols in a bizarre laundry accident.

I found the disparaging comments about Memorial Stadium by a Tennessee fan in the Chronicle this morning to be, well, comical.

Allen Sitzler, also of Knoxville, said Tennessee fans would be protesting to build a sports facility, not block one.

He also said he was shocked at the dilapidated state of 84-year-old Memorial Stadium, which has not had a face-lift or major repairs in decades.

“From what we’re used to, this place ranks very low in its facilities, and that’s putting it very, very nicely,” he said. “I don’t even know how they can recruit.”

Okay, Neyland Stadium (see below) is very nice. It’s gigantic, designed like a layer cake with a layer cake on top of it. And yes, Memorial Stadium is old and crumbling. But the setting can’t be beat. On a sunny, clear September day, there is no place I’d rather be than in Strawberry Canyon.

Still, I join everyone else in imploring you to be nice to our visitors from Tennessee. As someone who was in Knoxville last year, let me tell you that those folks were extremely friendly, gracious hosts. The worst-behaved person I saw in Tennessee by far was a Cal fan. So if you meet a confused Tennessee fan wandering the streets of Berkeley, give ’em a hand. They’re good people.

Now let’s hope that Cal can go out there and give the Vols a taste of their own medicine.

I don’t know what happened in mid-July but the seemingly interminable off-season that refused to go quietly into the desert night (can anyone guess the movie reference for that one?) suddenly turned into a mad-rush for opening day. I went from thinking I needed to come up with some good blog content to tide me over from when the 2006 lookback series ended until when the season started to finding myself barely able to keep up with all of the breaking news amidst a very personally busy August. It’s unbelievable to me that it’s already time for my Tennessee game preview.

I don’t know how it is possible but I think there is more emotion surrounding this game than there was last year. Last year I feel that us Cal fans overlooked Tennessee. This was a team that was 5-6 the previous year and past its prime. We all know what happened.

If anything, the tables are almost perfectly turned around this year. Tennessee is the team on the road. Tennessee is the team with the new cornerback to break in. Tennessee is the team that may be over-confident thinking that no Pac-10 team can compete with the SEC competition they deal with week-in and week out. About the only thing that isn’t reversed from last year is the betting spread and the team rankings which are surprisingly similar to last year with the lone exception of Tennessee being a handful of spots higher in the polls, although still trailing Cal.

I’ve repeated over and over my contention that last year’s game was tighter than everyone remembers. My opinion on that has only gotten stronger in the build up to this year’s game. I’ve heard statements that can’t possibly be justified. Things like there are supposedly Cal players who can’t even get through watching the 1st quarter of last year’s game (um… the score was only 7-0 at the end of the first). It seems that every reporter is besides themselves trying to come up with new and more colorful ways to state that the game was a ridiculous blowout “despite the final score”. What continues to boggle my mind is that these same reporters go on to predict that Cal will win this year. I’m sorry, that’s just not logically consistent. These teams have just not changed that much to justify saying last year was a horrific blowout where Tennessee displayed its vastly superior talent but this year Cal is going to win.

So we’re left with two possibilities. One, this year is going to be another painful reminder that Cal, although very good, just isn’t where the elite programs are. Or two, Cal is going to impress a lot of people, even if they lose. I don’t know why, but I get the distinct feeling that these same reporters who remember the… I need a new qualifier… um… DISASTEROUS blowout and at the same time are predicting Cal to win this year don’t really in their heart of hearts expect Cal to be able to compete with Tennessee. They’ll actually be surprised if Cal wins in the fashion they’re stating that Cal will in their articles. It’s odd, really odd.

Personally, I think Cal has the talent to win this game in a blowout fashion particularly with good use of misdirection to keep the Tennessee defense off balance, particularly if Tennessee comes in over-confident. That said, I don’t think that it’s going to go down that way. I think that this game is going to be a grudge match for the ages. Tennessee will likely come into the game a little flat and a little rattled by how hard Cal is playing them and how loud the crowd is. Cal on the other hand will come in looking to prove themselves and get… it’s time to play pick that ‘R’ word… redemption, revenge, retribution, retaliation, reprisal, repayment, etc., for last year’s HUMILIATING blowout. And while that’ll set the tone for the first couple of drives, I expect Tennessee to rebound and play some of the toughest football they’ve ever played.

Things I expect to see tomorrow:

• Tennessee will get beat deep once: I don’t expect this to happen early. Tennessee is going to keep a safety on DeSean all game. But as Forsett establishes the run attack, that 2nd safety will get pulled in too far and either Hawkins or Jorden will get behind their corner for an easy TD. I expect those safeties to make at least one mistake.
• Ainge’s broken finger will be meaningless: Unless he re-injures it worse, it won’t affect him. He’s too experienced and has too much composure to let a small issue like that bug him
• >Forsett will shine late in the game: Every time he’s started he’s worn down defenses with his speed. I expect a tired Tennessee defense to be unable to slow our run attack late in the game.
• Tennessee’s running game won’t miss a beat: All the controversy surrounding the player suspensions will amount to nothing.
• Tennessee’s no-huddle will be a think of the past by the 2nd quarter: It’ll be a fun experiment for us Cal fans to “explain” why it doesn’t work on the road.
• Cal will have difficulty getting pressure on the QB: While I feel pretty good about the Cal defense’s ability slow Tennessee’s offense both in the secondary and in the run game, the secondary’s job will not be made easier by the D-Line.

OK, to sumerize: Cal will come out strong early and get a lead. Tennessee will make in-roads on that lead in the 2nd half but the Cal defense will step up and play some very physical football and Forsett will run out the clock effectively after wearing the Tennessee defense down to help Cal hold on to their lead. Final score – Cal: 23, Tennessee: 20.

After spring practice I made my predictions for the Cal season. Now that the season is upon us, I think it is time to update those predictions:

Cal 23, Tennesse 20: In a game that was not as close as the final score, Cal is able to rebound from a couple of painful defensive mistakes. Unlike last year, not all of those mistakes go for touchdowns, but do result in about 10 unearned points. Cal will come out of the tunnel pumped and ready to play while Tennessee will come out flat and over-confident. The crowd will be a huge factor both in getting the Cal players pumped up, getting Tennessee rattled in their no-huddle early in the game. Those defensive mistakes will open the door back up, but Cal will stop them flat. Change from Spring: Adjusted score down based on Tennessee’s defense seeming to gel.

Cal 38, Colorado St. 13: In a game that is reminiscent of the mid-2006 season, Cal wipes the floor with a Mountain West team that continues in its struggling ways. Change from Spring: Dropped score slightly because… well… I felt like it.

Cal 35, Louisiana Tech 17: In a game that is never in doubt, but one where Cal looks surprisingly vulnerable, Cal manages to win despite looking shakey. This one feels like the 2006 win over UCLA, somehow not inspiring despite the good outcome/score. Even though there was no reason to think Louisiana Tech would put up any more of a fight than Colorado St., Cal looks like they may have taken them for granted and was looking forward to their revenge game against Arizona the following week. Change from Spring: Increased winning margin a bit based on Cal’s strong play in fall ball on both sides.

Cal 24, Arizona 10: In a generally low scoring game, Cal manages to get their revenge for the 2006 upset over the now 2-2 Arizona Wildcats (their other loss to BYU). Generally, the Cal defense looks the best it has all year as the Arizona offense continues to struggle in Berkeley. On the downside, the Arizona defense continues to keep the Bears in check and the game is closer than Cal fans feel comfortable with. Change from Spring: Lowered Arizona score based on better feeling about Cal defense.

Cal 31, Oregon 24: Cal will similarly demoralize the Oregon Ducks like it did in 2006 and will lead this game 28-10 going into the 4th quarter. Unlike 2006, Oregon who already has one loss to Michigan and a tight game versus Fresno St., with its fans behind it, manage a strong 4th quarter with two TDs to end with a respectable score. Nevertheless, the game will have a “Cal-Tennessee blowout” feel to it and Cal will get lots of props for the big win and will be rising in to the polls, into the middle of the top 10. Change from Spring: No change.

Cal 21, OSU 16: In a highly billed and nationally televised Pac-10 showdown of undefeated teams, a defensive struggle that is frustrating to Cal fans for it’s lack of offensive fire-power, results in Cal squeeking out a victory in a game where it scores fewer times than its opposition. Despite the fact that OSU came into the game undefeated because of upset wins over ASU on the road and an over-rated UCLA at home, Cal’s defense proves too confusing for OSU’s young QB. On the plus side, the victory can be given to the stout defense that kept OSU out of the endzone including an important mid-4th quarter goal-line stand that will have OSU fans questioning why their beloved Beavers didn’t go for it on 4th down with that little time left and the potential to tie with a touchdown and two-point conversion. Cal’s ability to beat an undefeated team catapults it into the Top-5. Change from Spring: Increased score for OSU after their strong performance last night and probably over-rating their defense in the spring.

Cal 24, UCLA 13: Cal FINALLY wins one at the Rose Bowl upsetting the biggest home-field advantage for a Pac-10 matchup (neither road team has won this game since 1999, a 17-0 Cal/Holmoe (go figure) win in LA). The game ends up being the death-noll for a UCLA team with high expectations, it being their 3rd loss of the season (BYU and Oregon St. being the other two), as they sink into mediocrity despite having beaten Notre Dame at home the week before in a revenge game for them after the 2006 collapse in South Bend. Change from Spring: Adjusted score way down. This isn’t going to be a shootout… I don’t know what I was thinking.

Cal 31, ASU 17: Cal gets through the last of its troublesome road games in a dominating win over a highly billed ASU team. ASU turns out to be a fraud yet again despite rising in the polls on their run to 7-1 (lost was to OSU). The problem wa that ASU hadn’t played anyone worth mentioning until the played Cal. ASU then goes into a tail spin losing at least 3 of their last for games (@Oregon, @UCLA, USC and Arizona). Cal maintains its spot in the top-5 and the Cal-USC matchup starts to get the kind of billing that the Ohio State-Michigan game got last year on ABC/ESPN. Change from Spring: Changed to a win and lowered ASU’s score dramatically. The rumors from ASU’s training camp seem to suggest that it is going to take Erickson more than a year to turn around ASU into the team they have the talent to be.

Cal 31, WSU 10: Cal doesn’t overlook WSU and wins this one in a game where the score is never all that close, WSU continues their downward spiral into the Pac-10 basement at 2-7, only above Stanford. Their offense just can’t get the job done against an improving every week Cal defense. The younger Mixon brother, Terry, regrets the decision to go north instead of playing for his older brother’s school. Change from Spring: Adjusted Cal’s score up slightly.

Cal 20, USC 21: In one of the biggest heart-breakers in Cal football history, undefeated USC comes into Berkeley and beats the Bears in a very, very tight game. Cal will make one too many mistakes in a game where it was clear that Cal could have won, similar to 2004 down at the Coliseum, but just didn’t play consistently enough to get the job done. USC continues on as the #1 school in the country on their way to a national championship. Nevertheless, Cal holds onto a top-10 poll spot because of the tight game that has pundits around the country saying good things about Cal, despite the loss. After the pain of the loss subsides just a bit, Cal fans keep their vomit down as they root for USC to finish out undefeated clearing the way for a Cal Rose Bowl. Change from Spring: No changes.

Cal 31, UW 13: Poor UW. They’re wallowing in misery late in a disappointing season with very little talent. They’re very much like the 2005 Stanford team that managed more wins than anyone expected through discipline and good coaching. Nevertheless, although they’ve managed 4 wins (Syracuse, Oregon, Arizona, Stanford) and still had a shot at a bowl game coming into their home game against Cal, there is just too much talent on the visitor’s sideline and they go down fast and easy in the first half, ending their bid at bowl eligibility. Change from Spring: Adjusted Cal score down because of increased weather concerns.

Cal 37, Stanford 6: Stanford gives up their last shot at a Pac-10 win early in this blowout of epic proportions giving Cal its 6th Big Game victory in a row. In the end, Cal’s desire to impress the Rose Bowl committee combined with their superior coaching and talent were too much for Stanford despite their determination to get a conference win before their season comes to an end. They end the season 1-11, their only win being an uncomfortably close home game against San Jose St. in week 2. Change from Spring: No changes.

Cal 31, Michigan 17: In their first Rose Bowl since 1959, Cal crushes a vastly inferrior Michigan from the quickly losing respect Big-10, despite “sneaking” into the spot via USC going to and winning the National Championship game. The victory over Michigan, not Wisconson as many pundits suggest because, just like many overhyped “alternative” Big-10 teams, they couldn’t beat either Ohio State or Michigan, finishing the season 10-2. Ohio St. loses a couple of painful games to Penn State and Michigan to put them out of the running despite their powder puff non-conference schedule with Youngstown St., Akron, Kent, and their only non-conference opponent with anything resembling teeth, Washington. With the big Pac-10 wins over the SEC (Cal over Tennessee, USC over Florida or LSU) the SEC, who should have been forced to eat their words, instead complain about how beat up they get and how hard it is to bring their ‘A’ game each week. Change from Spring: Turned into a win after looking at how weak both Michigan and Big-10 look.

While I feel like my predictions got more homer-ish from the spring, I think that there are lots of reason to be VERY optimistic about this season. I think we’ll know everything we need to know by tomorrow at 6:00 PM.