(Written by kencraw)

I don’t know what happened in mid-July but the seemingly interminable off-season that refused to go quietly into the desert night (can anyone guess the movie reference for that one?) suddenly turned into a mad-rush for opening day. I went from thinking I needed to come up with some good blog content to tide me over from when the 2006 lookback series ended until when the season started to finding myself barely able to keep up with all of the breaking news amidst a very personally busy August. It’s unbelievable to me that it’s already time for my Tennessee game preview.

I don’t know how it is possible but I think there is more emotion surrounding this game than there was last year. Last year I feel that us Cal fans overlooked Tennessee. This was a team that was 5-6 the previous year and past its prime. We all know what happened.

If anything, the tables are almost perfectly turned around this year. Tennessee is the team on the road. Tennessee is the team with the new cornerback to break in. Tennessee is the team that may be over-confident thinking that no Pac-10 team can compete with the SEC competition they deal with week-in and week out. About the only thing that isn’t reversed from last year is the betting spread and the team rankings which are surprisingly similar to last year with the lone exception of Tennessee being a handful of spots higher in the polls, although still trailing Cal.

I’ve repeated over and over my contention that last year’s game was tighter than everyone remembers. My opinion on that has only gotten stronger in the build up to this year’s game. I’ve heard statements that can’t possibly be justified. Things like there are supposedly Cal players who can’t even get through watching the 1st quarter of last year’s game (um… the score was only 7-0 at the end of the first). It seems that every reporter is besides themselves trying to come up with new and more colorful ways to state that the game was a ridiculous blowout “despite the final score”. What continues to boggle my mind is that these same reporters go on to predict that Cal will win this year. I’m sorry, that’s just not logically consistent. These teams have just not changed that much to justify saying last year was a horrific blowout where Tennessee displayed its vastly superior talent but this year Cal is going to win.

So we’re left with two possibilities. One, this year is going to be another painful reminder that Cal, although very good, just isn’t where the elite programs are. Or two, Cal is going to impress a lot of people, even if they lose. I don’t know why, but I get the distinct feeling that these same reporters who remember the… I need a new qualifier… um… DISASTEROUS blowout and at the same time are predicting Cal to win this year don’t really in their heart of hearts expect Cal to be able to compete with Tennessee. They’ll actually be surprised if Cal wins in the fashion they’re stating that Cal will in their articles. It’s odd, really odd.

Personally, I think Cal has the talent to win this game in a blowout fashion particularly with good use of misdirection to keep the Tennessee defense off balance, particularly if Tennessee comes in over-confident. That said, I don’t think that it’s going to go down that way. I think that this game is going to be a grudge match for the ages. Tennessee will likely come into the game a little flat and a little rattled by how hard Cal is playing them and how loud the crowd is. Cal on the other hand will come in looking to prove themselves and get… it’s time to play pick that ‘R’ word… redemption, revenge, retribution, retaliation, reprisal, repayment, etc., for last year’s HUMILIATING blowout. And while that’ll set the tone for the first couple of drives, I expect Tennessee to rebound and play some of the toughest football they’ve ever played.

Things I expect to see tomorrow:

• Tennessee will get beat deep once: I don’t expect this to happen early. Tennessee is going to keep a safety on DeSean all game. But as Forsett establishes the run attack, that 2nd safety will get pulled in too far and either Hawkins or Jorden will get behind their corner for an easy TD. I expect those safeties to make at least one mistake.
• Ainge’s broken finger will be meaningless: Unless he re-injures it worse, it won’t affect him. He’s too experienced and has too much composure to let a small issue like that bug him
• >Forsett will shine late in the game: Every time he’s started he’s worn down defenses with his speed. I expect a tired Tennessee defense to be unable to slow our run attack late in the game.
• Tennessee’s running game won’t miss a beat: All the controversy surrounding the player suspensions will amount to nothing.
• Tennessee’s no-huddle will be a think of the past by the 2nd quarter: It’ll be a fun experiment for us Cal fans to “explain” why it doesn’t work on the road.
• Cal will have difficulty getting pressure on the QB: While I feel pretty good about the Cal defense’s ability slow Tennessee’s offense both in the secondary and in the run game, the secondary’s job will not be made easier by the D-Line.

OK, to sumerize: Cal will come out strong early and get a lead. Tennessee will make in-roads on that lead in the 2nd half but the Cal defense will step up and play some very physical football and Forsett will run out the clock effectively after wearing the Tennessee defense down to help Cal hold on to their lead. Final score – Cal: 23, Tennessee: 20.