We’re back! For another weekly(ish) podcast about Cal football. This week Ken and Jason talk about the off-season, how the team is shaping up, what’s up with Jeff Tedford’s evolution (or de-evolution?) as a head coach, where we’re sitting at AT&T Park, and more. Plus: A walkthrough of Cal’s 2011 schedule, complete with Ken’s detailed predictions for every game. Except Presbyterian.

You can also subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.

There is no secret word this week. We forgot that we used to do that. We’ll bring it back next week.

Warm with high clouds (EMFMV 2011 #1) [ 55:19 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Jason and I will be recording our first regular mid-week podcast shortly, but I’m debating this year whether to continue my On The Road Home podcasts. For those of you who listen, you know I record them on the way home from the game. It started back when I was traveling to all the road games for Rivals, so I had lots of time in the car. It also gave me an opportunity to make available audio from the post-game interviews with the players and coaches.

Now that I’m no longer doing that, I’m wondering if they still have value. I’ve still got plenty of time in the car, coming from the Sacramento area, so that’s not the issue. But they take a lot of work once I get home as well. Because I’m driving while I record them, the post-processing of editing out the pauses (and the “what in God’s name is your problem!?! stay in your lane butt-wad” comments) and the such take over an hour. With a beautiful wife, 4 kids, a more than full time job, and lots of commitments at Church, my time is limited. That’s time that could be spent doing additional blogging instead, above and beyond what I already do. So please answer the poll on the sidebar with your thoughts of how you’d like me to spend my time for EMFMV:

1. Keep them the same: Pick this if you like the Podcasts and wouldn’t want them to change.
2. Go shorter: Pick this if you’d like me to continue, but with a shorter format (which would also reduce my editing time), probably in the 5-10 minute range.
3. Go unedited: Because I know I’m going to edit them later, I speak differently than I would otherwise. The reason that you hear no “ums and ahs” is because when I’ve got nothing to say, I’ll just shut-up for a minute or two until I gather my thoughts. I could instead just do a true stream of consciousness with no editing. The quality of the comments would be a bit lower and I’m sure there will be more stuttering/ums, but I think I could do OK.
4. Shorter and unedited: Pick this if you kinda like the podcasts but think they’re too long and want me to spend as little time on them as possible while still having reasonable content.
5. No OTRH podcast: Pick this if you’d prefer I focus my time/energy on blogging and perhaps doing a video review of the game (something I’ve thought of doing instead of a podcast).

Thank you for your feedback to help us make EMFMV a better site. I’ll decide whether to record one for the Fresno State game on Saturday around 10 AM before I head down, so get in your vote before then.

Sorry I got a slow start on this, but the Pick’Em league is ready for everyone to sign-up. Do it quick because the first game (UC Davis @ ASU) is on Thursday, just two days away!

Either click on the link on the header bar or go to:
http://excusemeformyvoice.com/pickem/

Yet again we’ll have the Betting Line and Ted Miller to compete against. Mr. Miller has been exposed as being nothing special when it comes to predictions… the Betting Line on the other hand, he’s pretty unstoppable.

It’s time for my annual act in futility of doing game-by-game predictions. Here are last year’s predictions. Other than missing the Nevada game (I seem to have a soft spot in my crystal ball in regards to non-conference road games), I was perfect, at least as far as the winner was concerned, until the Oregon game, when the wheels fell off the prediction bus and cracked my crystal ball. Frankly I underestimated how good Oregon would be last year (remember, they were short Masoli and nobody knew how good Thomas was going to be). The same goes for Stanford who I thought would stink without Gerhardt. And we just won’t mention The Game That Should Not Be Named to end the season.

Here goes my shot at this year:

Fresno State @ Cal => 13-24: I was pretty nervous about this game when the schedule first came out, and while I still feel there’s a lot of risk here, my confidence level is growing. Fresno State is not the team they were a decade ago. Although I think the neutral site will work to FSU’s advantage, I think Cal’s defense will be too much for the Bulldogs and Cal’s offense will get just enough done to win without there being too much doubt.

Cal @ Colorado => 24-27: As indicated above, my crystal ball stinks when it comes to non-conference road games. Therefore, as much as I’d like to believe we’re going to win this game, I mean, we CRUSHED them last year, I think their new head coach, playing at altitude and buffaloes desire to prove that they belong in the new Pac-12 will have Cal fans boiling over when we lose this one in as frustrating fashion as @Maryland and @Nevada.

Presbyterian @ Cal => 3-52: OK, there’s not much to doubt here and I can’t even think of a good/tasteful joke as a Catholic to relate how this historically protestant school will lose… so I’ll just leave it as “Cal wins”.

Cal @ Washington => 27-17: You can call me a Washington naysayer because I just don’t see anything in them that scares me. They *barely* beat us last year and we were a crippled shell of a team on offense. Yeah, yeah, I know they beat a supposedly good Nebraska team in the bowl game, but that was a letdown game if I’ve ever seen one. Yes, I also remember they’ve beat us both times that we’ve played them since Sark took over, but the 2009 game was a case of a letdown game for Cal in UW’s AND Locker’s best game of the season. This year the game is early, they’re short Locker and I think Cal comes out strong and wins this one.

Cal @ Oregon => 17-42: There’s a part of me that would like to believe that Cal can put together another defensive performance like last year. There’s a part of me that thinks Oregon is over-rated this year. There’s a part of me that thinks Cal’s revamped offense will get it done. But after that part of me is done talking to the Easter Bunny, I come back to reality. This one is going to be ugly and I only hope it doesn’t kill our chances for the following week.

USC @ Cal => 24-17: How is a Thursday night game at AT&T against a not-bowl eligible USC going to go? Your guess is as good as mine. USC will have had a bye week, so they won’t be coming into this on 4-days practice (sadly for us). Cal will have had an odd full week, playing the 2nd of back-to-back Thursday night games. Additionally, the sheep-skins should be undefeated at that point, with the teams on the schedule to that point being either over-rated or weak. I’m going to go with the pessimist in me and say the Bears lose this one in what will have a defensive struggle feel to it.

Utah @ Cal => 20-31: If Ted Miller has us winning this game in his best and worst case scenarios for both Utah and Cal, that’s good enough for me. Seriously though, I think Cal will be hungry after two tough losses to get back on track and they’ll be in no mood to let the new kid on the block push them around. The two extra days of practice won’t hurt either. Utah should be showing the signs of how a Pac-12 conference will wear on you and will have just come back from an oddly schedule cross-country non-conference game at Pittsburgh. Finally, I’m sure the bowl loss in 2009 will keep the older Bears on the intense side, not wanting a repeat of that debacle.

Cal @ UCLA => 42-21: Can you believe that Herb Herbstreet picked UCLA to win the Pac-12 South (minus USC)? Neither can I. Cal has owned this series ever since 2008 and Neuheisel hasn’t done anything to get UCLA back on track and I don’t see anything that would make me think this is his year for anything other than collecting an unemployment check. Bears win this one easily, particularly if UCLA can’t win some of their push games leading up to the Cal game (I could see them being as good as 3-4 and as bad as 1-6).

WSU @ Cal => 17-27: If you’ve been counting, the Bears will be 5-3 coming into this game. They’ll be very hungry for that 6th win this year. At the same time, WSU will be just as hungry and still be hoping to reach bowl eligibility having started out 3-0 but having lost the last 5. Needing to win 3 of their last 4 against Cal, ASU, Utah and UW (something they’ll believe they can do), they’ll come to play. Nevertheless hunger can only make up for so much of a talent differential and while this one will start close, Cal will win this one going away.

Oregon State @ Cal => 13-31: Oregon State’s stock has been plummeting faster this summer than my stock options in HP and I think for good reason (sadly, on both counts). Riley has made miracles happen in Corvalis, but last year he ran out of magic. Things look even more dire this year with injuries galore over the off-season. The Bears are sick of losing to this team (yes, it has been since 2006) and I think with bowl eligibility out of the way, the Bears play loose and fast in this one. Buy your tickets now: this will be the most cathartic win of the season.

Cal @ Stanford => 24-34: It pains me to say anything other than the Bears will bring back the Ax in 2011, but despite the Bears feeling much better about themselves at 7-3 at this point, I think the former-Harbaughs will still win this one. Sorry Bears.

Cal @ ASU => 28-31: This might be the hardest game of the season to predict. It’s after the rivalry game for both teams. Being a ASU naysayer, ASU will be long out of Pac-12 south contention by this point. The Bears generally have had ASU’s number, but that’s been a lot more iffy when the game is in the desert. ASU should already be bowl eligible, but Erickson might be playing for his job. Seeing as how I think I might have been a bit too optimistic, having the Bears win at UW, and beating both Utah and Oregon State, I’ll even things out by having a loss here.

That puts our final record at 7-5, which feels about right to me. But at the same time, I only see 3 games where the Bears are pretty likely to lose: Oregon, Stanford and USC. If this team was 9-3, it wouldn’t shock me. On the negative side, the risk is if UW and Oregon State don’t go our way. The ASU game could be pretty important to save us from two consecutive years of lacking bowl eligibility.

Go Bears!

I did both my analysis posts based on reports from the press and not an actual depth chart released by the team, so I knew up front they wouldn’t be perfect (I even said as much in the first post). Now, the official depth chart for the Fresno State game has been published. You can find it here.

I got the entire set of starters correct, but there were a few changes for the backups. I’ll list them with the most egregious mistakes first:

1. Backups for inside linebacker: Somehow JP Hurrell completely escaped my radar, despite being someone who’s seen the field in the past. I had the younger Fauna as the 2nd backup and even thought Forbes would be ahead of Hurrell. Instead it is Hurrell who will join Mullins as the backup.
2. Backups for cornerback: I had Avery Walls penciled in as a backup along with Michael Coley. There had been so many good things said about Walls in camp, I had to assume he had passed Moncrease. But in fact, he had not and Moncrease gets the #2 spot behind Cattouse.
3. Backups for offensive line: I didn’t even make a stab at listing them, although I did mention Rigsbee, Tyndall and Brazinski in the text. Those three are official backups now (at tackle, tackle and center, respectively), with the addition of Chris Adcock, a redshirt freshman who has had some good things said about him and Justin Gates, a senior who has seen some backup playing time in the past, having done better than terrible.
4. Backups for nose guard: Tipoti had been injured enough I thought true freshman standout Moala would get the nod, but indicating it was probably Tipoti’s job when he was healthy. Not sure how healthy Tipoti is, but he’s apparently healthy enough to get the #2 slot.
5. Backups for defensive end: Getting into the nit-picking category, Mustafa Jalil has played strong enough as a true freshman to get the “or” listing next to Gabe King for the #2 spot behind Trevor Guyton. Seeing as I mentioned him as coming on strong behind King, I don’t feel to bad about this miss.
6. Backups for wide receiver: I listed Edmond and Clay as the backups to the top 3 wide receivers, but with only two receivers listed on the depth chart, Michael Calvin who I had listed as the #3 guy, is ‘demoted’ to a backup and only Edmond gets the mention as a #2 guy. Clay is mostly recovered from his minor knee surgery, which is what is likely keeping him off the depth chart, but will likely see his name on there in the weeks to come.
7. Backups for outside linebacker: Finally, I listed Ryan Davis and Cecil Whiteside as the “or” backups for the surprise Camporeale. Only Ryan Davis is listed.

All in all, while there were more minor errors than I would have liked, only two were cases where my judgment was truly incorrect. Considering both were backups, that’s not bad if I don’t say so myself. The rest were merely cases where the situation wasn’t clear and I said as much in my preview, so I have a hard time holding that against my previous analysis.

As for what any of this does for my overall analysis of the depth… I can only answer: not much. There’s no revelations that change much of anything.

We move to the defensive side of the ball in our depth chart analysis…

NG – Kendrick Payne with Moala as backup (or Tipoti, who’s been injured): Payne has shown flashes of greatness in his backup time behind Derrick Hill, but he’s also shown inconsistency. Here’s to thinking he may pull a Cameron Jordan this year… or perhaps next year when he’s a senior. That said, he’d better do it right away if he wants to keep his starting spot, because true freshman Viliami Moala has the frame, the size and the talent to possibly become the best Nose Guard in the Pac-12. One assumes all he needs is the experience and time in the program to deliver on that, if he’s even half as hungry to succeed as the articles have suggested. Having Tipoti as a 3rd backup is of great comfort because while I never see greatness from him, he’s definitely serviceable if Payne goes down and Moala isn’t ready.

DE – Trevor Guyton and Ernest Owusu with Deandre Coleman and Gabe King as backups: I won’t lie, I’ve had a thing for Owusu ever since I saw him at the Spring game 3 years ago. For some reason he hasn’t been quite able to live up to the hype. Part of that is he’s always been behind Cameron Jordan. So will he come of age this year? Hard to tell, but there’s no doubt he has potential and is at a minimum capable from what we’ve seen of him in the past. Guyton on the other hand has been the guy who continually over-delivers and gets more playing time and has more success than his press clippings would indicate. I feel pretty comfortable with him as a starter. But just like last year, the best thing about our DE’s is our depth. There won’t be any exhausted players out there this year. Both Coleman and King are ready to make an impact and the word on the street is Mustafa Jalil and Brennan Scarlett are coming along nicely as well.

OLB – Dan Camporeale and Dave Wilkerson with Cecil Whiteside/Ryan Davis and Chris McCain as backups: With Mychael Kendricks moving to the inside, the intrigue on defense was always at outside LB. And “intrigue” it provided. Dan Camporeale? WHO!?! This guy is either the next Alex Mack of the team (remember he was an unheralded 2-star who was fairly unknown when he was named a starter) or none of our outside Linebackers are quite where they need to be and the walk-on is getting the starts until someone emerges. Wilkerson is of course a more known quantity, but still not someone who we’re ready to jump up and down about. Here’s guessing that OLB will be running a lot of blitzes this year, something that even the less refined guys can do as opposed to being involved in lots of complex scheming. If there’s good news, it’s that depth won’t be a problem and there’s lots of young talent, Whiteside and McCain in particular, who by the end of the season may have turned the corner.

ILB – DJ Holt and Mychael Kendricks with Robert Mullins and Steven Fauna as backups: Unlike a number of the other positions on defense, it’s depth that is the issue at inside linebacker. The starters are solid and I have every reason to believe that both Kendricks and Holt are set to have breakout years. They’re going to be the heart and soul of the defense. Luckily injuries at linebacker seem less common than on the line because what’s behind them is a bit scary. Mullins has never quite made the jump, although I have more confidence in him not being a detriment. The others are young, which is a positive (they will improve), a negative (lack of experience) and a question mark (is there greatness there? are they a flop?). Fauna and Forbes (another who has been mentioned) fit in that category. If there’s good depth news, it’s that there are lots of candidates so one would hope at at least a couple of them will step up.

SA – DJ Campbell and Sean Cattouse with Avery Walls and Michael Coley as backups: Cattouse is another who’s shown signs of brilliance but also inconsistency. He’s also another I’m optimistic will turn the corner this year, and frankly by the 2nd half of last year in many ways already had. Campbell is consistent and more than capable, so those two give me a great deal of confidence as starters. If it weren’t for true freshman Avery Walls, who’s getting so many props from Tedford in the post-practice reports one thinks he’s got a bit of a man-crush on him, I’d be more concerned with depth. But with the semi-serviceable Moncrease and the supposedly talented redshirt Freshman Michael Coley back there as well, one has to think the depth at safety is more than acceptable.

CB – Marc Anthony and Steve Williams with Josh Hill and Stefan McClure as backups: There’s been little in the way of reports for the cornerbacks, which I see as a good thing. Anthony and Williams should do just fine and Josh Hill has had a lot of experience. He’s one who could also jump to the head of the pack, but Hill’s academic problems has significantly impacted his playing performance, having missed practice numerous times to get his studies back on track (and this is as good a time as any to praise Tedford for continuing to be a standup guy in this area). I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hill in a starting spot come the end of the season. Not to be overlooked Williams has impressed with his abilities and stealing the starting job mid-season last year was no small feat. He didn’t disappoint. As for downsides, the depth here is not as great as other positions, particularly considering how often Cal likes to put a 5th DB on the field, and that 5th usually comes from the cornerbacks, not the safeties for whatever reason (although some indications have Walls and Coley as leaders for that spot).

Overall, there’s no position on the defense that is in trouble or even a big question-mark. Thus, there’s every reason to believe this will be a solid unit this year. But what’s encouraging is that there is a LOT of upside with this group. Frankly, of our 3 defensive guys lost to the NFL (Jordan, Mohammed and Conte) only Jordan was a particularly impressively talented player. The other two were exceptional because of their technique and their heart. I see MORE talent this year than I saw in last year with those three. But will that talent make the leap? Will the leadership be there to come up with the critical and decisive play when it is needed, the sack, forced fumble or interception that will be a game changer? If not, this will still be a solid group, more than good enough to keep Cal in games and allow the offense plenty of chances to succeed. If so, this unit could be scary good.

Well, the word on the street is that ticket sales for the Fresno State game are going slowly. So far they’ve sold about 7500 tickets and they need to sell about 1500 more through the Cal Bears ticket office (the ATO) to break even.

And my thought is “DUH! Of COURSE ticket sales are going slowly.”

The increase in ticket prices is a real problem that the ATO needs to understand. The ticket prices for the season tickets, for only 5 games, were about the same as last year with 7 games, including the Big Game. So if I had gotten the same seats I usually get (regular reserved with no donor money), and got the Big Game tickets I’d pay on the high end of what I usually pay (somewhere between $2k-$2.4k):

6 season tickets: $300 x 6: $1800 (avg ticket: $60)
6 big game tickets: $75 x 6: $600
Total $2400

And now to add to that another game, where equivalent seats would be ANOTHER $75 each, and we’ve got a budget buster of a situation.

For me it’s even worse as with a new baby in the house and my insurance continually whittled away so that my percentage of the birthing cost going up significantly over previous kids (honey, are you SURE you want that epidural?), we had to cutback and get the cheap seats at AT&T. I still got the Big Game tickets because tradition is tradition, but I’m just not feeling like paying out for all my usual tickets.

Knowing me, I might end up forking over for two tickets or something at the last minute, but, sorry, I just don’t have it in me to pay more than in the past particularly for what is a pretty mundane/weak lineup of games.

It’s not officially released, but we seem to have the majority of it from many different quotes from Tedford.

QB – Maynard with Bridgeford as backup: I think Bridgeford looked great when I saw him play in the spring and Maynard had potential. I have confidence that Maynard has come a long way or Tedford wouldn’t have put him above Bridgeford. So overall I feel really good here, even if Maynard doesn’t deliver or gets injured, I feel like we’ve got a good crew.

RB – Sofele with Deboskie-Johnson as backup: Sofele is the one that worries me. I think I’m more positive about him than many people are, but there’s no doubt he doesn’t have the punch of any of our recent starting RB’s. Seriously, like Seseme Street, which one of these is not like the others: Arrington, Lynch, Forsett, Best, Vereen, Sofele. Now, in a lot of respects, we’ve been VERY spoiled for the last 7 years, and I think this is why I’m not as low on Sofele as others. I think if the offensive line gets its act together, he’ll do just fine, but I don’t see him as an above and beyond back who can be successful even when the other pieces aren’t working, like our previous backs. In better news, I feel like the depth behind Sofele is good and I have higher hopes for Debo than most and there’s lots of talent waiting behind him. It could be by season end, Sofele is a starter in name only.

FB – Will Kapp with John Tyndall as backup: When Eric Stevens was in the mix (he’s out of the season with a torn ACL) I thought this was a pretty strong unit, but without him, it’s in shambles. Kapp has great heart, but he just doesn’t have the size or the speed needed to be a strong fullback. Our best hope is that Tyndall, who has the physical gifts needed, will improve enough to take over the spot by mid-season. That he hasn’t done it already, says something about his development. I hate saying it, because I really like Kapp (he makes everyone else better with his commitment, energy and focus on technique), if we can’t find someone who’s better than him, we’re in pretty bad shape.

WR – Allen and Jones with Calvin as the 3rd and Clay and Edmond as backups This is a strong group, the starters being contenders for being the best pair in the conference. If Calvin stays as improved as he was in spring and Clay can keep away from his recent injury problems and show the moments of greatness from the spring, this could not only be the best offensive unit but also the deepest.

TE – Anthony Miller with Hagan as backup: Anthony Miller is the real deal and seeing Hagan move forward over Ladner says to me we have two quality backups. The one thing I don’t think we have is the talent for a lot of two tight end formations, although Ladner when healthy may give us that and perhaps Hagan will show us more than I’m thinking for his converted WR frame.

OL – Schwartz, Schwenke, Galas, Cheadle and MSG with the backups being unclear: The starting group looks pretty strong, but the depth behind them is REALLY thin. Rigsbee has been injured. Tyndall has potential but never seems to actually get there. Brazinski is still very young. Heralded recruit Matt Williams didn’t get much press at all, so assumably is still learning the ropes. Maybe there’s some gems there that under Michalszik will come a long way (and FAST, before anyone gets hurt), but if there’s one position that’ll have me cringing if someone goes down, it’ll be the offensive line. But not to overlook the positives, the starters look like a pretty good unit that has a lot of experience with each other. Strap on those knee braces tight boys!

Overall, that’s not a bad situation to be in. I think this years offense is going to be a lot better than what finished up the season last year. (It better be, because that was as sorry an offense I’ve seen on the field since “Way to go Hol-moe” was a popular cheer.) I suspect we’ll see fewer plays with a fullback in the formation to compensate for that weakness, leaving only the O-Line depth as the truly concerning thing. All in all, it feels like a move in the right direction.

OK, this Bear Fan is finally coming out of hibernation…

Not that I haven’t been busy. We’ve got another new Crawford in the house as of July 5th. This time it’s a girl, so apparently I only have girls when the Bears have a losing season. 🙂 In any case, the last two months have gone by in a flash, so sorry for the even slower than usual off-season.

I’ll be posting pretty regularly from here on out. I hope to get in a few looking back posts before the season starts (I need to clear some space off the Tivo before I can put more games on it, after all). And of course I’ll have my game-by-game predictions and general thoughts. Plus I’m sure Jason and I will do our regular podcasts.

But until then, I’ll start with this:

I don’t think there’s been a year since 2002 where there have been as widely different expectations between fans. It’s no surprise really. Last year was a huge letdown. We lost a lot of key players. But yet somehow in the middle of that, there’s a lot of reasons for hope. With, two new QB’s in the hopper (one coming of age (Bridgeford), one transferring in (Maynard)), and with our young defense has a lot of returners back and our offensive line looking pretty experienced, it’s not outrageous to think that this year has most of the pieces needed to be something special.

And if that weren’t enough, you’ve got the external factors. The “neutral” site game against Fresno State. Home games in San Francisco. The 1st year of the Pac-12 which includes and playing new teams, not playing other teams, and compressing the schedule by one week (to make room for the conference championship game). It all makes for a lot of wildcards.

But amongst all those wildcards you can call me cautiously optimistic. I’m fairly confident this will be a bowl eligible team, particularly if the Bears get through the non-conference games unscathed (something I expect).

I also expect more consistent play. The defense isn’t going to have games like the USC or Nevada games this year. The offense won’t fall off a cliff if any one person gets injured (not like last year with Riley).

But consistent play and bowl eligible might look a lot more like 7-5 mediocrity than challenging for that Rose Bowl berth we’ve all been dying for.

A few years ago I realized that no Cal football players have ever been inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. And so immediately my attention turned to Tony Gonzalez, who seemed to be a lock to become Cal’s first Hall of Famer. He’s one of the best tight ends ever, and I saw him play. That’s cool.

Since that initial revelation, I’ve realized that Aaron Rodgers now stands a decent chance to get to the Hall too, given his strong numbers so far and the fact that once a quarterback wins a Super Bowl, the threshhold for hall induction is a lot lower. (Not Trent Dilfer low, but low.) A-Rodg just needs to keep doing what he’s been doing and he’ll probably make it.

But it’s all academic now, because as of this weekend, Cal has its first Pro Football Hall of Famer: Les Richter.

Richter played for Cal during the Pappy Waldorf era, specifically as a linebacker for Cal’s 1949-51 squads. During those three seasons he played on two Rose Bowl teams, which says a lot about how good Cal was back then and how bad it’s been since. Yes: Les Richter played on Cal’s second-to-most recent Rose Bowl team.

Richter went on to play in the NFL for the L.A. Rams from 1954-1962, then retired and got into motor sports and motor sports venues, becoming a NASCAR executive. He died in June 2010, and his son Jon was on hand to pose with his father’s bust at the enshrinement over the weekend in Canton, Ohio.

Congratulations to the Richter family and to every Cal fan out there—there is now a Golden Bear player in the Hall of Fame! Now we’re only two behind Stanford.