(Written by kencraw)

For the first time since the Colorado State game I won’t be in person to watch the Bears… something I loath. TV coverage is designed for the ‘lay watcher’ not for someone who actually wants to understand what’s going on in the game. It’s REALLY frustrating to me to watch pass plays because I’m forced into this artificial suspense because I can’t see the coverage. All I can see is whether a sack may be coming, an unlikely occurance with the two pass-rushes matched up on Saturday. This was supposed to be the year I went to a bunch of away games but my wife’s pregnancy and her master’s thesis have taken presidence, as they should. Nevertheless it is frustrating to see my brother go on the road to the Rose Bowl while I get to watch at home. I’ll make sure to text message him during important plays with “important” info that’ll keep him distracted just to spite him (Hey Bro: your roommate called me… is there supposed to be a big scratch on the side of your car?).

Luckily, I don’t think I’m going to miss an exciting game. Either the Bears are going to win this one in a walk or it is going to be one of the most boring upsets in Cal/UCLA history.

Perhaps I just don’t have enough confidence in UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell’s ability to manage injuries, but I’m 95% confident that Pat Cowan, the announced starter for UCLA will be a non-factor in this game. Yeah, at the post-Thursday practice Dorrell was all grins and giggles saying that Cowan did a “tremendous job” at practice this weeek, but call me skeptical for one of three reasons:

1. He won’t play at all because the injury isn’t healed
2. He’ll play but be hobbling around because the injury isn’t healed
3. He’ll get re-injured because the injury isn’t healed and/or their offensive line stinks

I mean, something is up at UCLA with their quarterbacks. They have WAY too many injuries and it seems to happen every year. Heck, they make Stanford look like the safe place to play QB. I mean in that same post practice interview Dorrell also went so far as to name a backup to the backup saying “Osaar Rasshan will be our third if need be.” What kind of confidence is that!?! When one puts that all together my gut says that Cowan’s backup Bethel-Thompson, otherwise known as “the lawfirm of McLeod, Bethel and Thompson” will be playing the majority of the game. For those of you who didn’t see the UCLA vs. Notre Dame game (remember this was Notre Dame’s ONLY victory), Bethel-Thompson was HORRIBLE. I’m not talking about a put my brother back there and see how bad it is… no this is far worse… this is I sure hope that lawfirm pays the bills awful.

Add in that their starting running back, Chris Markey is injured putting junior Kahlil Bell in the starting role against Cal’s stout run defense (Markey may get some playing time) and I’m pretty confident that Cal will win this one with either Riley or Longshore behind center. Heck, even if Cowan plays and plays his best, I still think either Riley or Longshore will out duel him. Cowan has only played in one game this season and wasn’t exactly brilliant in either that game or his playing time last season.

The lone area of risk for the Bears is whether their running game can get the job done against the supposedly stout UCLA run defense. While I’m not as confident about this as I am about the above topics, I’m still not worried much about it. I’ve been through too many “this run defense is going to be tough” games where Forsett put up his usually terrific numbers to be concerned about it. Forsett is on track for a 1500 yard season plus whatever he could do in a bowl game. Forsett had 60 yards on 11 carries last year in relief of Lynch in the UCLA game, against what is basically the same defensive personel.

So call me Mr. Confident: 35-13 (revised up Cal offensive score from 24-13 beginning of season prediction)