Oregon game preview
(Written by kencraw)
Obviously with the Cal vs Oregon game being so huge every commentator and their brother has had something to say. Some are saying that nothing has changed from last year. Some are saying Oregon is miles better than last year. Others think Cal just doesn’t have the consistency this year to put Oregon away like they did last year. Still others think it is all about home field advantage.
Put me in the “nothing has changed” group with one glaring exception: I think that last year’s game, had it been played multiple times, wouldn’t have been a blowout and wouldn’t necessarily have gone Cals way every time. That game turned on that first interception. Dixon never got his confidence back after that. While I still suspect that Dixon is easily rattled when he makes a mistake, I’m not so confident to suggest that he’s going to make a similarly high profile, confidence killing mistake this year. In fact, I’m confident that at home, without the crowd noise, I think it is a lot less likely he’ll make that kind of a mistake. Without that blow, I think the teams are more equally matched.
The other thing that most pundits are getting wrong in my humble opinion is the score. I don’t think Cal scored 45 points last year because it was a dominating offensive performace. No, while it was a good offensive performance, Oregon’s offensive mistakes gave Cal far more scoring opportunities than it deserved. The Oregon defense was on the field A LOT last year with too many short fields to defend. When facing a good offense, a defense just isn’t going to be able to hold up forever without some support on offense to give the defense some time to rest and a long field to defend.
At the same time, I think Cal’s defense is up to the challenge of Oregon, just like it was last year. People keep quoting Oregon’s offensive numbers… frankly, one of two things are true: Either Oregon has the most prolific offense in the history of college football or Oregon has played some very suspect defenses. Remember that Bellotti doesn’t have Tedford’s “let’s just grind out this easy win” mindset. He’s a “stick a dagger in them one more time” coach. I’m not being critical, I’m just pointing to the facts. Oregon will continue to put in their starters and be running aggressive plays long after Tedford has re-geared to a conservative offense. As a result of this different, forgive me for not being tremendously impressed with Oregon’s numbers. I think the Cal defense has what it takes to keep them to a sub 30 point score.
Finally, we need to remember that last year is the anomaly of the Tedford vs. Bellotti matchup. Here’s a question for everyone: What’s the highest score outside of last year’s 45? Try 28. That’s the HIGHEST score. For those who doubt me: 2003 -> 17-21, 2004: 28-27, 2005: 20-27 (tied 20-20 before overtime) and 2006: 45-24. This matchup traditionally has been a defensive struggle. Tedford and Bellotti know each other too well to be blown out by the other. Despite the fact that during that time both Cal and Oregon had some of the most potent offenses that the Pac-10 has seen in recent history, neither Tedford nor Bellotti have been able to outwit the other enough to blow out their old friend. That’s what made last years debacle so bad.
So, while nothing has changed since last year, I think last year’s game didn’t reflect the actual talent and Cal fans shouldn’t be too smug about the superiority of the 2006 Bears over the 2006 Ducks. What I will say is that Tedford is likely going to try his hardest to make sure that Dixon loses his confidence again. Expect to see large doses of blitzing and loaded defensive plays to induce Dixon into a confidence killing mistake.
Cal 31, Oregon 24.
September 28th, 2007 at 11:04 am
Well articulated. You may have me coming around to the “hope” side that this game won’t be “the one” that ruins the season.
I do think it will be closer than a touchdown.
September 28th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Good preview, Ken.
I’m amazed how confident the Duck fans seem to be about this one. At best these teams are pretty much equal on paper. Nobody can deny that Oregon is a good-to-great team: the O is firing on all cylinders, Dixon seems to have turned a corner, and they are playing at Autzen. All of those things certainly go in Oregon’s favor, but that does not negate the fact that they are playing a good-to-great team in Cal. But if they are indeed better than Cal, they aren’t that much better, not as much as the Duck blogosphere is playing it out to be. With Cal’s key injuries on D and at kicker, and the fact that the game is being played at Autzen, I think the spread is just about right at 6. I think it’s going to be a slugfest, perhaps not as high-scoring as everyone thinks. But it will be close. That much is certain.
If we can establish and maintain the run, I feel a stressful but ultimately satisfying win is in the cards for the Bears.
GO BEARS!
September 28th, 2007 at 4:01 pm
Don’t disagree with much except the score Ducks 27 Bears 20. Also, I haven’t seen the “run it up” approach you attribute to Belotti. Ducks could have scored a lot more on all opponents this year.
September 28th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
Pretty good observations I must say. However, I think our offense is going to be way too much for the bears to handle. I mean really, Jon Stewart, Jerimiah Johnson, Dixon, Colvin, and Williams. All of our skill position players run sub 4.4’s. Not to mention Ed dickson at tight end who is really looking good. Sorry Cal, I think we win by 10.
September 28th, 2007 at 6:18 pm
I appreciate your hard work to put together a good assessment. At the Michigan game, I met a lot of Michigan fans who predicted similar scores. I will say to you what I said to them: If you think Oregon is going to score only 24 points over the coarse of the entire game, you don’t know anything about Oregon. They will score 24 points in the first quarter.
September 28th, 2007 at 10:29 pm
OK Duck fans, or at least the arrogant ones amongst you (florida duck, you’re fine, James… I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt because of the 10 point end margin prediction despite the text of your note). It’s not “respectful” to say arrogant crap like “they will score 24 points in the 1st quarter.” Really!?! Kinda like how they haven’t scored 24 points in ANY 1st quarter this season. Or the lineage of Oregon players who will be too much for Cal too handle. Yeah, none of these guys were on the field last year, good point.
Here’s a tip for people who are going to disrespect meaningful opponents by predicting blowouts: it’s not respectful and it makes everyone think you’re arrogant jerks. Try using some terms that reflect some humility like: hopefully, suspect, seems reasonable, one could argue, heck, even use the word probably. That way, people may not hate the week they play you because they have to deal with your sophomoric crud.
September 28th, 2007 at 10:38 pm
Great observations Ken. I agree we CAL fans shouldn’t be so quick to count the Oregon ducks out. They are highly skillful and talented…when they want to be. I think Dixon’s inconsistency is going to be a major factor in tomorrow’s game. But our offense, although good, hasn’t been great. Longshore has overthrown a couple of key passes and the defense could be more aggressive. This should be a great game tomorrow.
September 29th, 2007 at 7:15 am
Give me a break, Ken. Everybody is talking about how arrogant and confident the Duck fans are…read your own board, mate. And Oregon’s for that matter. Half the Cal fans are talking blowout. It’s the nature of message boards. You always have crazies on there predicting 20+ wins in games that look to be pretty evenly matched. Your side is doing the same exact thing, so get off your high horse.
I think this one is a good one and the winner comes out a single-digit point winner. Hopefully it’s the good guys in Green.
September 29th, 2007 at 10:13 am
PazzoDuck, where do you mean by “my” board. You won’t find me on the Rivals board or the Scout board or even any Duck blogs criticizing Duck fans. Why? Because it’s not “mine”. But THIS is my site and just as I treat others with respect on their sites, I expect the same from those who visit me. Notice you didn’t hear a peep from me about Duck fans until they came here with their arrogant comments.
I won’t hold all Duck fans accountable for particular fans comments and you shouldn’t hold me accountable for other stupid Cal fans. But THIS site is one that treats others with respect and I expect the same from those who comment here, whatever their loyalties may be.
And feel perfectly comfortable being on my high horse about that.
September 29th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
[…] Ken’s prediction: Cal 31, Oregon 24. […]
September 29th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
hahaha. I couldn’t help but smile to myself at the end of the game today cause I remembered your prediction. And Ken, after today’s game, I don’t think we have to worry about DUCK fans on this board…at least for another year. I’d stay on my high horse too.
September 29th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
I wish we had “Respectful[‘s]” e-mail address so we could send him a copy of his oh-so-predictive comment (#5 above)…
I’m all for being a good winner and keeping mum on a Duck blog, but it’s comments like that–and the snide way in which they are delivered–that make you want to shove a grapefruit in their face!!
September 29th, 2007 at 5:59 pm
I hear you TrumanHugh. Unfortunately taking the high road means avoiding such temptation. So be thankful that he didn’t leave his e-mail address so that you can be saved from that temptation.
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