(Written by kencraw)

After last weeks performance against UCLA I’m feeling a little gun-shy. I mean, with the OSU game I predicted a victory, heck even a big victory, but I did have the appropriate caveats in there to not feel horrible about the end result. I also did that preview with the assumption that Longshore was back and healthy. As a result, I felt pretty comfortable with the mis-call. Last week however, I couldn’t have been more wrong:

The lone area of risk for the Bears is whether their running game can get the job done against the supposedly stout UCLA run defense. While I’m not as confident about this as I am about the above topics, I’m still not worried much about it. I’ve been through too many “this run defense is going to be tough” games where Forsett put up his usually terrific numbers to be concerned about it. Forsett is on track for a 1500 yard season plus whatever he could do in a bowl game. Forsett had 60 yards on 11 carries last year in relief of Lynch in the UCLA game, against what is basically the same defensive personel.

So call me Mr. Confident: 35-13 (revised up Cal offensive score from 24-13 beginning of season prediction)

Can I say “OUCH” one more time?

So what are we to make of the Bears? Are they just a team and a coaching staff that’s been out of sync for two games because of quarterback issues? I mean, it seems to me that Tedford’s play-calling issues could easily be attributed to him trying to game plan around Longshore’s injury. Also, Longshore hadn’t taken many snaps in practice in the last 3 weeks, perhaps that affected things as well. Whatever the case, there is an argument that could be made that once everyone is back to full strength the players and coaches will get back to their winning ways.

Or will they?

Perhaps Oregon laid an egg against a mediocre Cal team. I mean, they laid an egg against Cal the preceeding season. Maybe the difference was that a laid egg made the game close instead of a blowout in Oregon’s favor. Outside of Oregon, there’s not much on the Cal resume that is all that impressive. Tennessee is the lone candidate for impressive, but they’re not ranked anymore and have lost to just about everyone besides Georgia that is any good. The other teams on Cal’s schedule have been really stinking it up.

So I don’t know what to think. It seems to me that this offense should be every bit as good as last year. They’ve got too many weapons and too many of the same players, a couple of linemen being the exception, not to be. So it seems to me that they’ve got the potential to be as great as everyone has assumed they were before the last two losses. However, people had forgotten just how young and inexperienced our defense is. When you lose Mebane, Bishop and Hughes, it’s going to make a dent. Let’s not forget that all three of our linebackers, despite being very talented, are still first year starters. 3 of our defensive linemen are also new to the starting lineup and a couple are even new to significant playing time as well.

So it seems to me that this year’s team can only be counted on to score consistently, not shut them down defensively. If their is a hitch in the offense, like losing your quarterback, the team is very vulnerable. My perspective is that I think/hope the offense will get back on track tomorrow and the bend but don’t break defense will do well enough to give our offense plenty of opportunities to win, even win handily.

My prediction: 31-17 Bears… and I hope the Bears don’t make me look foolish.