(Written by kencraw)

Now that the stats section is up and running, I can link to the comparison stats for Cal and Louisiana Tech. Go take a look. Unfortunately, the statistics are misleading because they only include one game: Hawaii. Since their other opponent was a I-AA team, the stats available to me (at least the ones I’m grabbing) aren’t comprehensive enough to be easily usable.

What seems to be impressive about LT is their offense. They’ve put up a ton of points and they’ve done it against a team that is more stingy, at least by the numbers, than Cal’s opponents. Their offense is also balanced, rushing for slightly more yards per game than they pass for. What is not so impressive is their yards per play, across the board. Theyr’e in the middling 4 1/2 yards per play range for all three categories (overall, passing, rushing), which isn’t that good. The final qualifier is their opponents, particularly defensively. Central Arkansas is, well, Central Arkansas, but Hawaii is the more deceptive one. This is a team that is ranked 20th and has been on fire for the last couple years. The caveat is they’ve been doing it by putting up tons of points, not by doing anything meaningful on defense. Theyr’e the classic WAC “win the shootout” team.

So, while it appears that LT may be able to compete offensively, there are also reasons to be suspicious of that conclusion.

Things get worse for LT on defense, although the qualifiers from above are reversed. It’s hard to be too concerned about a defense that yields 45 points to anyone, but we have to remember that Hawaii routinely posts 45 on their opponents. Hawaii put up 63 on Northern Colorado. So just how bad is the LT defense? One really doesn’t know. They held Central Arkansas to 7 points and gave up 45 to Hawaii. How does one quantify the implications of that?

I think the answer is that we don’t. We’re left with guesses and qualitative analysis.

Overall, I think the LT offense is potent enough to ensure the final score doesn’t look like a huge blowout unless the Cal offense puts up ridiculously big numbers. While I think this game will be an easy one for Cal, it’ll also look closer on the scoreboard than it should, particularly because of Tedford’s conservative play calling in low-risk games. Expect to see a game similar to Colorado State, minus the end of game secondary breakdowns and the slow start. Also expect to see Tedford take his foot off the accelerator in the mid-3rd quarter once the game is locked up.

Cal 35, LT 17