(Written by kencraw)

Ragnarok over at The California Golden blogs has a good post about turnovers and winning percentage. Everything he says, minus a portion of his conclusion, is dead on accurate. There’s no better way to lose a game than turning of the ball and no better way to win a game that protecting it well. But Ragnarok makes a conclusion from it that I wouldn’t (the part in bold):

Still, despite the last two games, Cal still leads the Pac-10 with 18 turnovers recovered and a +7 turnover margin, and their 11 turnovers given up is tied for the fewest in the conference with Oregon, Arizona State, and Stanford. (Really? Stanford leads the conference in something?) This should give us hope going forward that Cal remains a team that is both able to take care of the ball on offense and create takeaways on defense. If this is indeed the case, I like the Bears chances to win Pac-10 games down the stretch (especially against USC, which has coughed up the ball 17 times this season and has a -4 turnover margin).

To be clear about what I’m saying, I completely agree that I think Cal has a big upside in that it has a history of taking care of the football and if they can get back to that trend, the Bears have a great shot at absolutely dominanting the majority of their remaining games. What I don’t agree about is that USC is vulnerable because of their past bad turnover performance.

While I completely understand his perspective, the way I see it, the teams with a high turnover ratio are the ones to fear, not the ones to be confident about. In my view of the world turnovers are mistakes more than 90% of the time, instead of being induced by good defenses (although there is no doubt that the best defenses find a way to force them) or even overall weakness of the team making the mistakes. Mistakes can be corrected much easier than an undersized offensive line or poor conditioning. Running backs can be taught to better hold onto the ball. Quarterbacks can be taught to avoid bad throwing situations. It’s much harder to tell a player to “run faster!” As such, a team that has losses because of turnovers is a team that if they clean up their act may have the potential to be VERY strong.

As evidence of this I present to you a quote from my Rivals Oregon State preview:

The other meaningful statistic is the 3.8 turnovers per game the Beavers are giving up. Of course this statistic is a bad one for Oregon State fans, but it should also be a warning to Bears fans that Oregon State could be playing a lot better football without the mistakes. In Oregon State’s other blowout loss outside of UCLA, a non-conference romp by Cincinnati, Oregon State turned the ball over 9 times including 6 interceptions, a fumble and two special teams mistakes including a blocked punt for a touchdown.

There is no question that Oregon State will be unable to win this game if they continue to make mistakes like they did against Cincinnati. However, if they can reduce those mistakes, something that can be more easily fixed in practice than an undersized offensive line or a slow set of defensive backs, the Beavers might just have a shot at upsetting the Bears.

We all know how that turned out…

So for me, when I see that ASU hasn’t turned the ball over much and is winning their games that says to me that they’re more vulnerable than their final results indicate… they’re a few mistakes away from some big upsets but when USC has a horrible turnover ratio it says to me that this a VERY dangerous team if they can get their act together. Said another way, USC is a couple of turnovers away from being undefeated and #1 in the country. That makes me really nervous come November 10th.

(Written by kencraw)

My UCLA analysis article has been posted at cal.rivals.com: Running in to the Ground.

The article does not require a subscription.

(Written by kencraw)

As much as we’re all sick about this game, in the end, I’ve got to return to being optimistic. I see two angles for optimism… #1: The Rose Bowl is not dead… yet. #2: Tedford always strives to improve and is very perceptive.

Let’s take them one at a time…

#1 The Rose Bowl is not dead… yet

It really bugs me how negative the press was about the Bears chances. The Bears aren’t even close to dead if they win out. Now, of course what is really bothersome is that it doesn’t look like Cal has it in them to win out, but leaving that aside for the moment (and remembering just how much talent there is on this team) Cal is very much still in the hunt. Here’s what needs to happen assuming Cal wins out:

• Oregon must lose 1 (still have ASU, UCLA, OSU and USC on their schedule)… tell me it’s unlikely they’ll lose at least one of those?
• ASU must lose 1 beyond their loss to Cal (still have Oregon, UCLA and USC on their schedule)… this is the most untested team in the Pac.
• UCLA must lose 3 (still have ASU, Oregon and USC as well as WSU and Arizona on their schedule)… and this is one weak team in my opinion.
• OSU must lose 1 (still have Oregon and USC as well as WSU and Washington on their schedule)… I just can’t see them winning out.

That’s it!

Yeah, it’s not exactly a lock, particularly considering that the prerequisite is Cal wining out. But let’s not start carving the tombstone just yet. I fully expect both UCLA and ASU to fall apart down the stretch because their schedules are VERY back-loaded. The biggest risk in my opinion is Oregon and I’m pretty hopeful that either USC or OSU (remember, rivalry game) will help Cal out.

But let’s assume it doesn’t happen for the Bears, which is a reasonable assumption. That still leaves the 2nd reason to hold out a longer term hope.

#2 Tedford always strives to improve

I still have a lot of hope for Tedford’s Bears even as soon as 2008, although 2009/10 is looking really strong at this point with the recruits who are just coming in. What has always impressed me about Tedford is his ability to learn. He’s not a natural at just about anything, and I mean that as a compliment. He wasn’t a natural at QB… but he managed to lead Fresno State and Canadian football teams with authority. He isn’t a natural coach… but he managed to work his way up and find a way to relate to his players. He’s not a natural recruiter… but he’s learned that too.

How has he managed that? He’s managed it by being willing to learn. Tedford’s greatest asset is his perceptiveness and his ability to learn. Why do you think it is that so much of what Cal does today echo’s the best of what Oregon has been doing for the last decade? It’s because Tedford was there to learn and to see what was successful about their program. He’s got no pride/super-ego and is willing to take whatever works and put it to use for him.

I bring this up because the position the Bears are in right now is something entirely new to Tedford. Just like going to Tennessee last season to open the season was a new experience for him, and he completely missed the boat as the best way to prepare for a matchup like that, being a top-rated team with a bulls-eye on his back is new for Tedford too. I don’t think Tedford knows how to lead a team that knows they’re considered one of the best in the country. I don’t think Tedford knows how to play-call against teams that come in with a nothing-to-lose attitude because they’re expected to get blown out.

Did Tedford blow the play-calling against UCLA? Absolutely… but I have complete confidence in Tedford’s ability to learn and grow from this experience. Next year and every year after this, Tedford will have the experience of this year under his belt. And just watch… Tedford will make the adjustments, just like he did in his 2nd shot at the Holiday Bowl and against Oregon in Eugene and Tennessee and every other hurdle that the Bears have cleared in the last 6 years.

Tedford has not topped out. Give the man more time. I have high hopes that he will lead Cal to the promised land and a Rose Bowl berth long before any of us, God willing, die.

(Written by kencraw)

I’ll do what nobody in their right mind should do… re-watch the game. Here is my commentary:

• The first series of the game was a bad omen: A forsett run for a loss on 1st down, an underneath and short gain pass, followed by an incomplete (and tipped) pass on third down for the first 3 and out.
• And isn’t the 2nd series ENTIRELY different!… OK, the first set of downs was run, run, pass, but after that pass, rush, pass, pass, pass, rush, pass, pass, pass for TD: 7-0
• Additionally, the UCLA defense is already loading the box… setting up 1-on-1 coverage on the receivers.
• On UCLA’s next drive, the 3rd down completions where infuriating… one of the things I hate about television games. How can they be leaving guys open 15 yards down field on 3rd and 13…
• All of the manhandling and pass-interference penalties that we saw makes me wonder just how physical the game was off-screen. Just about every play that they showed a downfield camera there was a LOT of pushing and shoving. Not sure what that means or the implications of it, but just an observation.
• But got to give the defense credit for stiffening in the redzone. In my mind that’s classic Bend But Don’t Break: Force the offense to be patient and not make mistakes on entire drive and then when on the few times they’re mistake free and worn down after the long drive to the redzone, turn up the head and force the FG once there: 7-3
• Of course, despite the indicators to the contrary, Cal goes right back to the run on first down strategy. One 3rd down conversion saves Cal from a 3 and out, but the 2nd series of downs is the depressing run, run, long incomplete pass series.
• Then we get the long run by UCLA. So much for BBDB. Let me tell you what that was all about: the linebackers over pursuing, particularly Anthony Felder who bit REALLY HARD as if it was a sweep. He actually got on the other side of the middle linebacker (Williams) well before the runningback had made is way through the line. Almost like it was a linebacker stunt, although it doesn’t seem like it was: 7-10
• The next series for the Bears was the perfect example of just how much UCLA was keying on the run. I challenge anyone to give a specific example of where a defense let DeSean get 10 yards behind them (sans slipping or something like that). DeSean was ridiculously wide open: 14-10.
• Another “I thought we had a BBDB defense!?!” moment with the long pass by UCLA on their first play from scrimage. How’d we let a guy get that far behind us. This is another “I wish I was there” moment as well because it sure looked like Conte had the receiver well blanketed as they shot away from the line but when the camera panned with the ball it was as if Conte bit back on some move by the receiver or something because it just didn’t make sense how much Conte was out of position based on how the two of them left the line. In any case, it’s an easy 38 yard pass play, something that shouldn’t be happening with BBDB.
• Something I’ve notice in the last couple weeks, facing these more traditional offenses, the Cal defense has been giving away their blitzes and schemes by creeping in too early. I wonder if playing so many weeks of no-huddle, up tempo teams makes them a little out of cadence with creeping in at the right times.
• In any case, outside of the 38 yard pass, the defense held UCLA to a field-goal:14-13
• You know there hasn’t been much discussion of this in the post-game head-scratching, but that Longshore to Best pitch/fumble was PAINFUL. The Bears were driving and seemed sure to score another TD. How different would this game have been at 21-13 at the half?
• And while we’re on the topic of that drive, it was another great drive (up until the fumble) and why? Passing the ball a lot, of course!
• Got to give props to both Williams and Hampton on that forced fumble and recovery. I don’t know how Williams was able to get such a grip on that ball to rip it out and throw it 15 yards and then how Hampton was able to get there in time to pick it up after the first UCLA guy overshot the ball.
• But before we get too hapy clappy, Cal gets the ball with 1:20 or so, and after two passes (yeah!) that weren’t effective (can’t win them all), they let the clock run down from about a minute to 20 seconds on 3rd down. What the heck!?! Talk about having no confidence in your defense… because the only reason you don’t take a timeout (or do a quick snap) there is because you fear that you’ll end up giving the ball back to UCLA. Instead Kay is stuck attempting (and missing) a 44 yard field goal when the Bears could have had another 30 seconds to drive to the endzone.
• And re-iterating what I’ve said a number of times, I’d much rather be down my one than up by one at halftime. It’s far more easy to motivate a team that is behind than ahead and the 2 point swing is trivial at halftime. In fact, I just realized, 14-13 is the EXACT same score at halftime for the OSU game too.
• I’m starting to re-think my not being so harsh on the defense for this game. The WR pass for a TD was yet another case where they were out of the BBDB philosophy and the safeties bit on the reverse. That’s 17 of their 20 points that came on BBDB breakdowns… it’s not so much a criticism of BBDB but of the defense’s execution of it in this game: 14-20
• And how does Cal respond? A stuffed run on 1st down.
• Now, a couple of series later, Cal starts of the series with an attempted DeSean pass play (as in DeSean is the QB). To some degree, you can’t say that Tedford and Co. didn’t bring their trick plays. That’s why I still think that conservative is the wrong word… stubborn is. To further the example, what’s the call on 2nd down? A stuffed run of course… which sets up the next play:
• An interception! It was really surprising to me to see Hawkins not play that ball more aggressively. He SHOULD have out muscled the UCLA DB for the ball. I mean, it was closer to the QB. But he didn’t play it very aggressively, which is unlike Hawkins.
• The more I watch this game the more I remember how sloppy it was, for both teams. I think that’s part of what makes it so disgusting. I mean… OSU, they played pretty much their best game. UCLA, they turned the ball over, commited lots of penalties, they did everything Cal should have required to pick them apart.
• And what do you know… Cal goes back to the air on their next drive: result… TOUCHDOWN! (Despite going for the inside run on 1st and 2nd and goal… more stubborn play calling): 21-20
• After holding UCLA yet again (way to go D… finally stiffening a bit), what does Cal do: a 5 play, 10 yard drive that was ALL rushing… even on 3rd and 18.
• Another hold by the defense and another run, run, pass three and out.
• This next UCLA drive was the one drive I was disappointed with the run defense of Cal. I think they were getting tired on the defensive line. Earlier in the game there was a number of strong run plays by UCLA but they were never able to string them together to base a score off of it, that one 60+ yard rush aside. But on this drive, UCLA was able to really stuff it in Cal’s face, drive down into field goal range and milk the clock down as much as possible (5 1/2 minute, 42 yard drive): 21-23.
• After repeating this game, after re-validating just how bad the play calling was (by the way, as it was happening live, on 1st down when they handed off to Forsett, even though he got 4 yards I screamed at the top of my lungs: “NO, NO, NO, NO, NO, NOOOOOOOOOO! Jeez!?!” It was that clear to me that running the ball was the wrong strategy, even before the disasterous pick-6.
• I’m feeling sick again.

(Written by kencraw)

I have two long running jokes with my wife to help lighten the mood after a crushing Cal loss:

• The good news is that I guess we can remove the “Rose Bowl tickets” budget line-item
• Looks like we’ll be able to improve our season ticket location next year

The second joke is more true than anyone wants to admit, although we’re not really at that point yet this year. There’s no doubt that during the bad seasons both the number of season tickets goes through the floor and the number of people using their tickets go down. All of a sudden there are a lot less complaints about how much space is allocated for each rear-end on the bench with the empty seats to spread out into.

So it’s gut check time.

Yeah, none of us have to worry about the Old Blues… they’ll be around as long as they’re alive. But there are A LOT of young blues out there who are buying season tickets. I’ve got a question for you: do you see yourself as an Old Blue some day? If so, this program wants you! This University was built by Old Blues, not by flash in the pan Young Blues. You want to become an Old Blue? It’s easy enough. You can complain. You can be disgusted. You can be cynical. But whatever you do, your rear-end better be in the seat for the next home game, and every game after that no matter how bad it gets.

That’s how you become an Old Blue.

(Written by kencraw)

The UCLA podcast is up on the podcast page… go have a listen and hear in my voice just how disgusted I was at 4:30 PM yesterday. 🙁

Standard Podcast [ 14:17 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

(Written by kencraw)

I think I’ve slowly grown the reputation of being the optimistic Cal blogger: always hopeful, always pointing out the upside or the potentials, willing to cut the Bears some slack on their weaker days… and I’ll probably continue to do that, in fact I’ve set that aside as my last post of the day. But there are occasionally games that just disgust me and yesterday was one of them.

There is no excuse for the Bears losing to UCLA. To those who have said they have a newfound respect for UCLA, particularly their defense, one of two things is true. Either you had way too little respect for them or you don’t realize just how poor the Bears play-calling was. If I had to come up with a word for the Bears play-calling in the weak moments of the last two years it would be stubborn. Many pick the word conservative, but I think that is wholly inaccurate.

Conservative is a combination of doing what you do best and taking what the opposition gives you. It’s grinding things out and continuing to do what works, albeit just barely well enough to win, until a slim victory is assured. Notice that in my definition of conservative, there is no explicit reference to the run game. See, in my opinion, it’s not conservative to run the ball against a defense that is loading the box with NINE defenders. I’m not exaggerating. When Cal had a 2 WR set, UCLA was putting all 3 LBs and the 2 safeties in the box along with the 4 linemen. You can rarely see the safeties in the TV screen before a play, I could see them just about every play in the 2nd half.

Unless you’re a corn-fed Oaklahoma team playing a crummy undersided team like Baylor, no one is going to be able to establish a power inside running game against that. Heck, even when the teams are as unbalanced as they were in the above example it’ll be difficult.

UCLA was just DARING Cal to throw the ball. I was a bit sympathetic last week against OSU that Cal didn’t take OSU up on the same offer because Riley was starting his first game and the ground game was inexplicably still somewhat productive despite them loading the box. This week however with Longshore back and the ineffectiveness of the Bear’s running game, there is just no excuse for the play-calling in the 2nd half. Here are the 1st down plays of the Bears last 3 possessions before the fateful interception:

• J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
• J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 7 yard gain
• J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 4 yard gain

And just in case anyone gets the wrong idea about that 7 yard gain on the middle possesion of the 3, Cal was stuffed on 2nd down and then got held short on a Longshore to Best screen play on 3rd down for a 3 and out.

To further the point, let’s compare two drives: The first of these 3 fateful drives and the preceeding drive, Cal’s last touchdown. First the bad drive:

• 1st-10, Cal20 0:24 J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
• 2nd-8, Cal22 15:00 J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 13 yard gain
• 1st-10, Cal35 14:45 J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
• 2nd-8, Cal37 14:05 Cal committed 10 yard penalty
• 2nd-18, Cal27 13:59 J. Forsett rushed up the middle for no gain
• 3rd-18, Cal27 12:57 J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 8 yard gain

And note that the last rush for 8 yards was on 3rd and EIGHTEEN!?!. So to recap, 4 completely ineffective rushes (sorry, 8 yards on 3rd and 18 isn’t effective) and 1 13 yard rush that I only believe happened because the box score insists on it. Now, let’s move on to that touchdown drive that preceeded it:

• 1st-10, Cal33 6:25 N. Longshore passed to L. Hawkins to the left for 11 yard gain
• 1st-10, Cal44 6:05 Cal committed 10 yard penalty
• 1st-20, Cal34 5:40 UCLA committed 15 yard penalty
• 1st-10, Cal49 5:30 N. Longshore incomplete pass to the right
• 2nd-10, Cal49 5:24 J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
• 3rd-8, UCLA49 4:45 N. Longshore passed to D. Jackson to the right for 14 yard gain
• 1st-10, UCLA35 4:10 N. Longshore passed to L. Cunningham to the right for 16 yard gain
• 1st-10, UCLA19 3:45 N. Longshore passed to J. Forsett down the middle for 15 yard gain
• 1st-4, UCLA4 3:25 J. Forsett rushed up the middle for 2 yard gain
• 2nd-2, UCLA2 2:50 J. Forsett rushed up the middle for no gain
• 3rd-2, UCLA2 2:15 N. Longshore passed to D. Jackson to the right for 2 yard touchdown.

On this drive Cal passed 6 times, 5 of them for completions, and not a single completion was less than 10 yards sans the TD pass because the ball was at the 2 yard line. On the same drive, the Bears had 3 rushes for a grand total of 4 yards. I don’t know how much more clear I can make it just how much UCLA was geared to stop the run. They were RIDICULOUSLY DARING the Bears to throw the ball and when the Bears did it they marched down the field with amazingly surprising ease.

The Bears should have won this one in a walk… but our coaches insisted otherwise, not because they were conservative, but because they were stubborn.

Unbelievable. Tragic. Disgusting.

(Written by kencraw)

First an important public service announcement: Me and my Trident are NOT happy.

In any case, it perhaps looks as though after yesterday’s tragedy that ExcuseMeForMyVoice.com has gone into hibernation. Fear not friends! One can expect the following posts throughout the day (Sunday):

1. Just how disgusted I am
2. Podcast posting (already recorded)… aka Just how disgusted I am, part II
3. Who’s leaving? just what makes a good Cal fan
4. Game analysis/review
5. Reasons to hope despite all evidence to the contrary

Got to finish on a high note…

(Written by jsnell)

I know it’s a bit of a stretch, but it’s entirely possible that if Tom Schneider hadn’t destroyed his mystery muscle while warming up for the Tennessee game, Cal would be undefeated.

In two consecutive weeks Cal’s decision-making has been affected, at least a little bit, by the unreliability of Jordan Kay, the plucky backup kicker.

I’m just saying, who’d have thunk that it was even conceivable that the season could break completely differently based on the presence or absence of Tom Schneider.

All hail Schneider! And what you’ve learned about me is, when I’m in pain over a Cal loss, I always turn to classic television.

(Written by jsnell)

12:30 PM: Hello, ABC. You’re not going to show that last play from last week, are you? You wouldn’t do that, would you?

Oh. You would. Well, thanks a bunch.

12:32 PM: Sounds like Longshore’s going to start.

12:35 PM: I would write a paragraph describing just how lousy the broadcast looks because ABC cheaped out and didn’t bother buying enough equipment to air these midday Pac-10 games in HD. But I won’t, because Ken wants this to be a family-friendly site and the only word I can use to describe how my picture looks is not particularly friendly.

12:39 PM: Dan Fouts is giving Troy Taylor advice on how to broadcast. I’m laughing because I remember Fouts when he was the anchor on KPIX. Not good.

12:39 PM: Three and out and Longshore’s not looking so hot with the bad ankle. He was pressured and couldn’t really move or plant or throw. Is Kevin Riley warming up in the Enterprise engine room?

12:42 PM: Three and out for UCLA. If you’re not watching for some reason, here’s the link to ESPN Gamecast.

12:46 PM: Forsett just limped off and was replaced by Montgomery. Can we get some wheelchairs out there, please?

12:49 PM: Forsett back in after two consecutive plays for Jahvid Best out of the backfield. Best sure looks good — he fights for yardage, which your usual track-to-football guy doesn’t do.

12:52 PM: Longshore hits Jackson for a gain of 12. Jackson’s defender fell down, but Longshore threw the ball low, forcing Jackson to basically sit down when catching it. Otherwise that was a huge gain for Jackson.

12:54 PM: Touchdown Bears! 21 yards, Longshore to Stevens over the middle, Stevens catching it just in front of the goal line. Stephens lined up right, broke inside, had nobody covering him, and walked in. The classic TE pass play. Cal 7, UCLA 0.

1:00 PM: Cowan tackled by Alu’alu’s butt. Seriously.

1:03 PM: UCLA putting a pretty nice drive together here.

1:09 PM: 3rd and 6 from the 13 yard line for UCLA. Follett catches Cowan from behind for a slight loss. Kicking time for UCLA. End of First Quarter. Cal 7, UCLA 0.

1:13 PM: UCLA Field Goal good. Cal 7, UCLA 3.

1:21 PM: Great third-down completion for 16 yeards to Jackson near midfield.

1:23 PM: Cal is really struggling to get the running game going. Two straight runs to Forsett for minimal gain. Good pressure on Longshore forces a punt.

1:24 PM: A rare lousy punt for Andrew Larson. 18 yards. Yuck.

1:27 PM: Kahlil Bell with a gigantic run of 64 yards, right up the middle and then gone. Stopped by DeCoud at the 2.

1:28 PM: Touchdown UCLA. UCLA 10, Cal 7.

1:29 PM: Is this the “break and don’t bend” defense I’m seeing here? Wow.

1:32 PM: Apparently Karl Dorrell doesn’t understand the concept of forward progress. He’s on the field asking for a ball to be spotted way back because the Cal receiver allowed UCLA defenders to push him back. Read the rulebook, Karl.

1:35 PM: Longshore to Jackson, touchdown! Beautiful pass, and D-Jax was wide open. Play action, fake end around motion, and Jackson took it in. Cal 14, UCLA 10.

1:40 PM: Huge completion for Cowan, exposing some pretty lame secondary coverage by Cal. The Cal secondary is playing like they’re hopelessly overmatched, including by my count three Pass Interferences so far.

1:45 PM: UCLA Field Goal good from 28. Cal 14, UCLA 13.

1:50 PM: Forsett is down again. Running off now, but he’s banged up.

1:52 PM: Good third-down pass to Jackson for a good gain and a first down. Jackson gets shoved on his way out of bounds and complains, but (unlike the call against Cal last week) the ref wisely decided to let it go. Next play, a long pass to Jackson that was so obviously a touchdown that the UCLA defender had to face-guard and PI in order to prevent the TD.

1:55 PM: Terrible pitch from Longshore, fumbled by Best, kicked around, recovered by UCLA. Terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible. Cal was in the Red Zone, and now it’s UCLA ball. So, Cal, do you want to play in the Emerald Bowl? You’re playing like it.

2:01 PM: Worrell Williams rips the ball out of the hands of a UCLA receiver. Somehow, inexplicably, recovered by Cal.

2:02 PM: Incomplete pass, lame screen pass, and it’s third down just like that. Toss in a false start to boot, and it’s third and long.

2:03 PM: Pass complete for a first down with :03 left. Cal had two time outs left but didn’t take them for fear of, what, giving the ball back to UCLA? As a result, there’s no time left to run more than a single play. Oh well. Kay has to come in instead. 44 yard attempt no good. Halftime. Cal 14, UCLA 13.

2:05 PM: Seriously, UCLA was beaten senseless by Utah and beaten by Notre Dame. If Cal can’t beat UCLA… well, if they can’t beat UCLA they’re not nearly as good as people thought they were.

2:27 PM: And we’re back.

2:30 PM: Backup QB, backup RB… and UCLA keeps moving the ball. They’re almost at the 50.

2:33 PM: Did they listen to the announcers when they suggested that there would be a fake end-around pass later in the game? Obviously the announcers saw them practicing it. It worked. Touchdown UCLA. UCLA 20, Cal 14.

2:37 PM: If this is how Cal plays in the Rose Bowl maybe we don’t ever want to win the Pac-10 championship.

2:39 PM: Three and out for Cal’s offense. Punt almost blocked. But the UCLA player goes for Larson and not the ball, giving Cal five yards and a re-kick. Net result is a 20-yard difference in field position for UCLA. A lot more if you figure he should’ve blocked it.

2:47 PM: UCLA fumble recovered by Alu’alu, Cal ball! Every time I start writing about how disgusted I am with Cal today, something positive happens. I need to do that more often.

2:50 PM: Another failed trick play. DeSean Jackson runs around in the backfield. Hey, DeSean, you’re the QB. Throw it away! Don’t take a loss.

2:53 PM: And now a pitch to Best, can’t get around anyone and gets a tiny gain. The running game is doing nothing and it’s another third and long for Longshore. Third down, UCLA defender pulls it away from Hawkins for the interception.

2:54 PM: I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this before, but because of a prior work-related travel commitment, I’m going to miss the Washington State and USC games, and most likely the Washington road game unless they play it at 7 p.m. It pains me to be far, far away (and without even reliable Internet) during Cal games, but the way they’re playing right now maybe it’s a blessing. If Cal keeps playing as they’re playing right now, it’s time to write off this season. Boo.

3:00 PM: Three and out for UCLA. Good play by the defense there.

3:04 PM: Blatant roughing the passer on UCLA, and called by the officials. Gives Cal the ball at midfield with a first down.

3:05 PM: Draw to Forsett for nothing. The Cal running game today has simply not been there. Third and long yet again.

3:06 PM: Another third-and-long pass completion! This one to Jackson. Can’t say how impressed I am with Longshore’s third-down throws today.

3:07 PM: Nice catch by Cunningham, playing for Jordan today. His second catch of the season. First down at the 20. Screen pass to Forsett, and it works! Forsett to the 5. One of the only plays all day that has worked with the ball going short. So much of Cal’s progress today has been based on 10- or 15-yard passes, often on third down. The run simply has not worked so far.

3:10 PM: Second and Goal, UCLA stacks up in the center and they hand off to Forsett up the middle. Didn’t we learn our lesson last week, Bears?

3:11 PM: Longshore to Jackson in the end zone for an apparent touchdown. UCLA defender bumped into him and then stripped him in the end zone after the TD was clearly made. Official call: defensive PI, stole the dead ball out of Jackson’s hands… which is what it was. Touchdown Bears! Cal 21, UCLA 20.

3:13 PM: Now that’s what you have to do on a third and goal when you’ve got Cal’s receivers and a defense that’s playing the run up the middle.

3:14 PM: Slater runs the kickoff back across the 50 and is tackled by Larson. And did Dan Fouts just refer to the conference as the Pac-8? Wow, Foutsie, welcome to the ’70s.

3:16 PM: Offensive PI on UCLA. Crazy game, crazy officiating.

3:18 PM: On 3rd and 1, Cowan slides a yard short of the first down rather than going head-first and getting the first down. I assume he just didn’t know where he was on the field (since alas, in the real world there is no electronic first-down stripe on the field), but that was the wrong time to do that. Timeout, UCLA, as they consider going for it on 4th down.

3:19 PM: Hey, we’ve been lumped in with talk radio! Talking about Dorrell being criticized “on talk radio and on the blogs.”

3:20 PM: Dorrell tries to draw off Cal, takes the penalty and punts. Dan Fouts is critical of Karl, and really, can you blame him? Boos from the fans. What can you say? Karl Dorrell is a terrible, terrible coach. I weep for the day when he is inevitably fired, because UCLA may replace him with someone competent who will make UCLA into a force to be reckoned with year in and year out, a real contender for the Pac-10 title. Unlike the inconsistent, underachieving team that they’ve had the past few years.

3:22 PM: End of the third quarter. Cal 21, UCLA 20.

3:25 PM: Forsett for a 10-plus yard run. That was the best run of the day.

3:25 PM: For those of you wondering at home, no, my son has not peed on me at all today. That was apparently a one-time Cal game occurrence. My couch and I are both grateful.

3:27 PM: 2nd and 18, and… Forsett runs up the middle? Eh?

3:31 PM: Another run by Forsett, for a gain of 8. Yeah, on 2nd and 18? I don’t like that call at all. Come on. How much success has Cal had on third down passing today?

3:34 PM: On third and 7, Cal doesn’t get much pressure on Cowan but he throws it high and it’s almost picked off on the deflection. UCLA punts, ball down at the 22. Another flag, this one on Cal for holding on the punt. Sigh.

3:40 PM: Another three and out, and a bad Larson punt and it’s first down UCLA at the 50. I’m not liking this.

3:45 PM: 3rd and 3 for UCLA. Huge play, and UCLA makes the conversion. It was easy to miss — this huge play in the game was derailed by a conversation on ABC about the medical condition underlying “turf toe.” Wow, great timing, guys. What this one-point game in the 4th quarter needs is filler! Anyway, a big gain on first down and UCLA has the ball at the 20. Cal is almost certainly going to have to come from behind with less than five minutes to go. Ugh.

3:49 PM: Third down and UCLA passes, to the ten. But really, that’s a terrible call. You’ve got the field goal for the lead. Why are you passing on third down? You risk ending the game on a pick. Bad call, Karl. In any event, the 27-yard field goal is good. UCLA 23, Cal 21. Cal has three timeouts and 3:08 to answer.

3:52 PM: Jahvid Best, huge kick return! Rambling left, rambling right, bringing it back 54 yards. He was hit out of bounds, by the way, but unlike last week (in a very similar situation), no call this time.

3:53 PM: Forsett rushes for four yards on first down. Second down, Forsett runs for basically no gain. Third down.

3:54 PM: Cut to Jordan Kay on the sideline. No, no, no… do not put this on the foot of Jordan Kay.

3:56 PM: Longshore throws for the first down to Jackson and UCLA steps in front and runs it back all the way. That’s two consecutive games where Cal had the game to win with a field goal and gave it away. UCLA 30, Cal 21. That’s the end of this season, as far as I’m concerned. Nowhere to go but down from here. Keep reaching for that Sun Bowl!

4:00 PM: If you lose to a bad team, you are a bad team. Two conference losses in a row, and two games squandered. Lots of good excuses last week. This week? None. Cal can’t even beat this terrible UCLA team, a team coached by a moron.

4:02 PM: Turns out I’ve picked the right year to flee the country during multiple Cal games after all.

4:04 PM: Cal will fall to 5-2. Hey, is Steve Mariucci coaching? It’s got that feeling. Riding high at 5-0, and then… face plant.

4:07 PM: Game over. UCLA 30, Cal 21. Who needs to play in the Rose Bowl in 2008? Maybe the 50th attempt will be the charm.

(Written by kencraw)

For the first time since the Colorado State game I won’t be in person to watch the Bears… something I loath. TV coverage is designed for the ‘lay watcher’ not for someone who actually wants to understand what’s going on in the game. It’s REALLY frustrating to me to watch pass plays because I’m forced into this artificial suspense because I can’t see the coverage. All I can see is whether a sack may be coming, an unlikely occurance with the two pass-rushes matched up on Saturday. This was supposed to be the year I went to a bunch of away games but my wife’s pregnancy and her master’s thesis have taken presidence, as they should. Nevertheless it is frustrating to see my brother go on the road to the Rose Bowl while I get to watch at home. I’ll make sure to text message him during important plays with “important” info that’ll keep him distracted just to spite him (Hey Bro: your roommate called me… is there supposed to be a big scratch on the side of your car?).

Luckily, I don’t think I’m going to miss an exciting game. Either the Bears are going to win this one in a walk or it is going to be one of the most boring upsets in Cal/UCLA history.

Perhaps I just don’t have enough confidence in UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell’s ability to manage injuries, but I’m 95% confident that Pat Cowan, the announced starter for UCLA will be a non-factor in this game. Yeah, at the post-Thursday practice Dorrell was all grins and giggles saying that Cowan did a “tremendous job” at practice this weeek, but call me skeptical for one of three reasons:

1. He won’t play at all because the injury isn’t healed
2. He’ll play but be hobbling around because the injury isn’t healed
3. He’ll get re-injured because the injury isn’t healed and/or their offensive line stinks

I mean, something is up at UCLA with their quarterbacks. They have WAY too many injuries and it seems to happen every year. Heck, they make Stanford look like the safe place to play QB. I mean in that same post practice interview Dorrell also went so far as to name a backup to the backup saying “Osaar Rasshan will be our third if need be.” What kind of confidence is that!?! When one puts that all together my gut says that Cowan’s backup Bethel-Thompson, otherwise known as “the lawfirm of McLeod, Bethel and Thompson” will be playing the majority of the game. For those of you who didn’t see the UCLA vs. Notre Dame game (remember this was Notre Dame’s ONLY victory), Bethel-Thompson was HORRIBLE. I’m not talking about a put my brother back there and see how bad it is… no this is far worse… this is I sure hope that lawfirm pays the bills awful.

Add in that their starting running back, Chris Markey is injured putting junior Kahlil Bell in the starting role against Cal’s stout run defense (Markey may get some playing time) and I’m pretty confident that Cal will win this one with either Riley or Longshore behind center. Heck, even if Cowan plays and plays his best, I still think either Riley or Longshore will out duel him. Cowan has only played in one game this season and wasn’t exactly brilliant in either that game or his playing time last season.

The lone area of risk for the Bears is whether their running game can get the job done against the supposedly stout UCLA run defense. While I’m not as confident about this as I am about the above topics, I’m still not worried much about it. I’ve been through too many “this run defense is going to be tough” games where Forsett put up his usually terrific numbers to be concerned about it. Forsett is on track for a 1500 yard season plus whatever he could do in a bowl game. Forsett had 60 yards on 11 carries last year in relief of Lynch in the UCLA game, against what is basically the same defensive personel.

So call me Mr. Confident: 35-13 (revised up Cal offensive score from 24-13 beginning of season prediction)

(Written by kencraw)

My weekly statistical preview article for the Bears is up at Rivals: Crunching the Numbers: Cal at UCLA

As a bonus, this one is yet again available without a Rivals subscription.

(Written by kencraw)

This one was posted a couple days ago, but I forgot to link to it from here: Bears take one as a team.

(Written by kencraw)

Just an FYI. Both myself and Ragnarok from The California Golden Blogs will be on tonight’s episode of the BruinShow. It airs from 6-7 PM. You can listen to it from here:

http://bruinshow.com/?p=17

I guess we’ll be up in the 2nd half of the hour.

(Written by kencraw)

OK, I’ll admit it, I’d never heard of BleacherBloggers but once I took a look, they seem pretty impressive. Well, guess who gets a mention on today’s show:

Yeah, that’s me alright! And might I add that they zoomed in WAY too much on me and my brother. Nobody should have to see my ugly mug that zoomed in.

For all who are visiting this site through the link at BleacherBloggers, welcome and make yourself at home. I hope you’ll visit often.

(Written by kencraw)

The more I read people’s comments, the more surprised I am about how little so many people know about the Rose Bowl selection process. So here goes:

1. The Rose Bowl selects the winner of Pac-10 and the winner of the Big-10.
2. The Pac-10 champion is determined by whoever has the highest winning percentage in their Pac-10 conference games (or said another way whoever has the most Pac-10 wins (assuming everyone plays their full Pac-10 schedule)).
3. If two teams are tied for the highest winning percentage, the winner of their matchup wins the tie-breaker.
4. If three or more teams are tied, if one team has beat all of the others amongst the tied teams, it wins the tie-breaker.
5. If three or more teams are tied and none of them has beat all of the other tied teams, the team with the best record against the tied teams wins the tie-breaker. If two or more teams are tied for the best record, the lower teams are eliminated and tie-breakers number three and four are re-tried. (BTW, this tie-breaker only really matters if 4 or more teams are tied (assuming everyone plays their full Pac-10 schedule) so it can likely be ignored).
6. If the above tie-breakers still do not break the tie, whoever lost to the highest place team in the Pac-10 is eliminated and the above tie-breakers are re-tried. (This one is best explained by an example: If Cal, USC and Oregon are tied because Oregon beats USC but losses to Washington and Cal loses to USC, whichever of Stanford (USC’s loss), Oregon State (Cal’s loss) and Washington (Oregon’s loss) finished higher in the Pac-10 will determine who is eliminated from the tie-breaker. If Stanford was that team, USC would be eliminated and Cal would go to the Rose Bowl based on the head-to-head tie-breaker over Oregon.)
7. If after all of the above tie-breakers are exhausted, the team with the highest BCS ranking goes to the Rose Bowl.

I have ignored who goes to the Rose Bowl in the case that the Rose Bowl has an at-large berth due to one or both of the Big-10 and Pac-10 champion going to the BCS championship game… perhaps I’ll do that in another post if it looks like it will at all be of issue down the road.

The key things to remember off the top of your head is that it is still the Pac-10 champion who goes irrelevant of low BCS rankings (although a top-2 ranking of course changes things) and the tie-breakers for the Pac-10 representative in the Rose Bowl when there are co-champions are the traditional ones (head to head matchups first). If you don’t remember all the complicated 3-way and beyond tie-breakers, I wouldn’t worry about it, but people need to know the simple stuff.

The final note, and the reason I felt the need to write this, is that assuming no Pac-10 team goes to the BCS title game, it’s very unlikely at this point that the BCS rankings will determine who from the Pac-10 is in the Rose Bowl at this point particularly since the teams expected to be on top at the end of the season have lost to different teams down in the Pac-10 standings.

(For those who are interested, the Pac-10’s document on how the Rose Bowl representative is picked can be found here.)

(Written by kencraw)

Here are my thoughts after having re-watched the game:

• Here’s a beginning of the game statement that nobody would make anything out of until the final play of the game: “It’s game management issues that Tedford wants to protect his young quarterback from.”
• I had completely forgotten that Forsett had ripped off that long run on the 1st play from scrimmage… boy would that have been nice if Kay could have converted on that FG (and man was that close) or if the offense could have kept moving forward because that would have really set a different tone for the game.
• Although OSU “evened” things out with that early fumble. Need I remind everyone that this was OSU’s lone turnover and it was already “pre-evened”?
• The one thing that OSU kept shooting themselves in the foot with was the dropped passes, the first of which really looked like a catch and fumble from the stands but pretty clearly never under control on TV.
• How hilarious was it that Jordan’s first catch of the game, the catch that tied the consecutive games with a catch record, was a 2 yard loss? I mean Jordan had great catches later in the game so it’s not like the record is minimized… but it’s still not a catch you want to be celebrating.
• What a rough fumble for Forsett… that defender had some amazing arm strength to pull that ball out. Notice as well that it was on the first play of the drive, putting the defense right back on the field already in their own redzone. How can anyone hold that against the defense?
• And even still, the defense forced a 4th and goal… OSU just was able to punch it in: 0-7
• As a note, I wasn’t the least bit nervous at this point in the game. The defense had been doing such a good job that I was confident Cal would eventually get their offense working.
• The fullback running plays, which have been so effective this season, really didn’t work against OSU. I couldn’t really see why other than the O-Line wasn’t getting a good push.
• I was WAY under appreciative of Forsett in my podcast. He had a great game, even by the 2nd quarter he was established.
• Notice that the very first drive that Tedford really took the shackles off of Riley in his play-calling Cal marched right down the field for a tying TD: 7-7
• That punt by Larson still amazes me. WOW. 74 yards! Not only did he get it over the returner’s head, he had enough air under it that the gunners caught up to it shortly and would have been there to stop it from rolling into the endzone if for some reason it had another 8 yards on it.
• Not that this takes any guts to say this but I still stand behind my statement that the defensive line was the worst unit on the field yesterday. They got ZERO pressure on Canefield all day and I think a big part of the reason he didn’t throw any interceptions was because he was never rattled by the defense. Getting pummeled tends to lead to mistakes.
• What a rough interception… see a pattern here? About the only thing Riley did wrong was sit in the pocket a little too long.
• That reverse by OSU had SOOOO many blocking in the back penalties… Oregon got away with that crud too two weeks ago. I think Pac-10 refs just aren’t looking for block in the back stuff when on offense.
• This same defense that everyone was criticizing managed to hold OSU to a field goal on that short field. 7-10.
• Just to re-iterate: 10 points so far, all 10 of them on short fields from turnovers.
• One thing I didn’t touch on in my podcast but bugged me all game was how weak our kickoff runbacks were. The worst one of the game was this late 2nd quarter one where it was kind of like a reverse but it had more the feel of a handoff after a huddle and a break for a cup of coffee. It’s no wonder that the defense was able to get down field and stop Cal on that one. It was an incredibly slow developing play.
• This TD drive toward the end of the 2nd quarter was the most impressive of the game for Cal. They established the run game, and pounded OSU over and over and over. Add in a great on the run pass by Riley and this looked to be the turning point for the Bears: 14-10
• And then the squib kick… definitely just poor execution. The goal of that kick was to get it deep but on a bounce. It’s done all the time and it just didn’t happen. Another place where we’re missing Schneider?
• Another missed penalty, one that I could see from my corner seat, was the Canefield throw pass the line of scrimage. He was a FULL 2 yards past the line of scrimage. Those yards (and it’s a loss of down penalty, not that it mattered with the clock) would have killed that field goal attempt.
• In any case, Serna kicks another great field goal: 14-13
• And while we’re at it, we’re up to 13 out of 13 points that shouldn’t be counted against the defense.
• Going into the 2nd half, this first drive for OSU was every bit as bad as it seemed in person. The defense was just getting manhandled by OSU. No intensity what so ever.
• Speaking of which, I’d much rather have Cal down by 1 than up by 1 at halftime of a game like this. When the team is still up, the adjustments and motivation that happens at halftime just isn’t there like it is when the team is down, even if it is just by 1.
• Whatever the situation, there’s no excuse for the defense coming out of the break that flat. They just didn’t bring it on that touchdown drive, OSU’s only full field drive: 14-20
• Yeah, my mediocre feeling about the run game was totally unmerited. They did great. The next drive was a continued dominating performance by Forsett.
• Another thing I forgot in my podcast was it was Stevens who caught that incredible pass from Riley. Riley was practically wrapped up and managed to throw a bullet between two defenders to Stevens and then Stevens managed to drag half the OSU team another 10 yards. I had remembered the great throw by Riley but I forgot about Stevens and was fairly critical of his low impact in the game. Well, that was a huge impact play that he made happen (after Riley gave him the great toss).
• I’d better make sure I’m fair. I went through the 4 goal line runs by Forsett and the refs got it right. None of them crossed the goal line… and I went through 1st and 3rd down frame-by-frame. My seats are on the opposite corner so I don’t get a very good view of the far endzone particularly depth perception wise. For us 2nd down looked like the winner, but it wasn’t even close.
• Nevertheless, there is no excuse for not scoring there. The offensive line had been moving the pile for the last two drives they had the ball and they, along with the tight ends and fullbacks, needed to make a hole for Forsett who was given no chance and did everything in his power to make something out of nothing.
• This was the turning point in the game if you ask me. Yeah Cal would take the lead again later, but this was the moment OSU could look themselves honestly in the face and say: “if we can pull stops like that, we can win this game.” This was also the first point I really got nervous. I was troubled when Cal’s defense crumbled on the previous drive but I held out hope they’d get it back together and the offense would continue to make strides forward. At this point, I wasn’t so sure either side was going to get it done.
• But the defense stepped it up again. The kept the Beavers punting from their endzone (after a 3 and out) and that was huge for allowing the Bears to not only work a very short field (their only one of the game I might add) but also to go back at it against a tired defense.
• And Cal was able to execute on just those grounds: 21-20.
• The first 3rd down of the ensuing OSU drive was the first time I was disappointed with the secondary. There’s no way they should have let that receiver come free and the forced punt would have been huge for momentum.
• Follet missed a pretty important tackle later on that same drive that turned it from a 3rd and 6 to a first and goal. Follett had a good game so I’m not criticizing him, just pointing to the frustrating moments of the game.
• For those who want to beat every decision to death, the 1st Cal timeout was called on 3rd and goal of this drive with the ball at the 1 yard line. The Bears held on 3rd down forcing 4th down.
• Following up on my podcast, the refs explination for the 2 timeouts only counting as one was “Oregon State will now ‘utilitize’ their timeout”. That doesn’t sound right to me, but in fairness to OSU, it looked like they only grudgingly used it. The refs effectively made them take the timeout.
• On that two point conversion, Hampton made a huge mistake the sprung the receiver free. I think it was worried about the QB running so he cut back for just a moment allowing the receiver to sprint away. That was a bad decision for two reasons: 1. There was a line backer in front of him who would be responsible for that and 2. there was no one else to cover the receiver: 21-28
• Best’s fumble on the kickoff run back… they don’t a good angle on what happened. What happened there?
• That personal foul was just ridiculous. Horribly ridiculous. If Bernard was out of bounds, it was only by a millimeter and there was no way the Cal defense could know not to hit him. That was completely unfair and it put the Beavers in field goal range.
• But notice that the defense held. Add 3 more points to the total that doesn’t belong on the defenses shoulders bring us to a grand total of 16 of their 31 points. Heck, even the previous TD was on a medium field because of a long kickoff runback to about mid-field. In any case, OSU up by 2 scores: 21-31
• If there was an offensive possesion that was disappointing it was the 3 and out with 6 minutes left. That series wasn’t even close to converting a 1st down. I must admit that when Cal punted that ball away, I was sure the game was lost and seeing the light stream of people who started leaving, I wasn’t alone… good thing I NEVER leave early.
• But this defense, the one that was supposedly so bad, held OSU to 3 and out. Giving Cal a desperate opportunity for two scores with just under 4 minutes left.
• That crossing route that went for a TD was open WAY too much on Saturday for it not to be used that often. It was a huge mistake for OSU to leave it so open at that point in the game and Hawkins speed made a huge difference in getting to the endzone: 28-31
• I completely agree with the call to go for the on side kick. There’s little value in field position at this point when 1 first down seals the game. So give your team two chances to get the ball back in both the onside kick and the 3 and out using all the timeouts. Oh and by the way, assuming everything else plays out the same (which is unfair) Cal would have had a timeout to forgive Riley his mistake at the 12 yard line.
• And it was a great on side kick. That ball was a complete jump ball which is all Cal could ask for. The bounces in the hand just happened to go OSU’s way.
• And that horrible defense held OSU to another 3 and out. How dare they!?!
• Riley started off the drive again showing off his elusiveness and ability to throw a pretty good ball despite being harassed… it was just barely out of bounds to an open DeSean. (and more importantly avoided the safety)
• Hawkins took the team on his back here late in the 4th. Not only did he get open, he eluded three tacklers to get the extra 4 yards he needed to get to the first down.
• And then Riley throws that SWEET ball to Jordan. This was just an amazing set of downs and anyone who is ready to complain on a bad break… just didn’t appreciate how much good had just happened.
• THROW THE BALL! THROW THE BALL! THROW THE BALL!… ugh that is soooooooooooo painful to watch. Why would I subject myself to watching that again?
• But watch the Cal reaction… there’s your hope. There a very upset Tedford who regains his composure after hucking his headset and refuses to condemn his young QB. There are a bunch of teammates who go up to Riley to let him know that they stand behind him. THAT’s a team I enjoy rooting for. A team with integrity. A team that played a pretty darned hard game but had a lot of bad breaks and some unfortunate errors. Trust me… this is a team that will rebound.

Wrapping up the day, yeah, mistakes were made, but there’s no one unit you can pin this on. It was a tough loss against a team that is a lot better than most people want to give them credit for.

(Written by kencraw)

Check over on the podcast page for my latest podcast.

Standard Podcast [ 17:16 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

(Written by kencraw)

OK, let me make one thing clear. I’m not going to get into a ranking debate with anyone:

• I’m not going to discuss whether our loss is higher quality than other top 10 teams.
• I’m not going to discuss whether our wins are higher quality than other top 10 teams.
• I’m not goint to discuss why Cal is #14 in the computers.
• I’m not going to mention how Cal should be in front of Oregon since we BEAT them and are both 5-1. (OK, maybe that one I’ll make my point just once, but that’s it)

Nope, consider this a ranking debate free zone. All I want to discuss is whether the Bears have what it takes to beat ASU and USC as well as take care of business versus UCLA, Washington, WSU and Stanford… because that’s all that matters for going to the Rose Bowl.

(Written by kencraw)

I’ll have more detailed thoughts later as well as a full review of the game but I just wanted to get some quick thoughts out on the following topics:

• This loss has very little impact on the Bears in the Pac-10 title hunt
• The Beavers are better than we give them credit for
• The Beavers did everything I said they needed to do for the upset
• While it was a tough loss, I’m full of optimism
• Finally, the difference in the blog versus message board content is why I’m a fan of blogs

First of all, ignoring for a moment any concerns that Cal won’t be good enough to win their big games coming up, Cal still controls their own destiny in the Pac-10 and they’ve got their main opponent coming to Berkeley. Yeah, the National Title hopes seem pretty dashed at this point, but did anyone really think that was a shoe-in? I always saw it as a pipe-dream and I’m not too concerned that it seems to over (although with all the losing this year it might not be as over as everyone things… but I digress). The short term goals for Cal have always been a Rose Bowl and upgraded facilities. Both of those hopes are still very much alive, at least by the numbers.

But I think what really bothers soms is not that mathematically things are fine, their fear is that the Bears aren’t a good enough team to win the games they need to win to get to the Rose Bowl. I think that’s just foolish.

As I said in my previews both here and in Rivals, the Beavers are a pretty good team, just a mistake prone one. If you look at how they competed with everyone so far, and they’ve played some very good teams, it was their turnovers and mistakes that killed them, not their lack of talent. They’re not a Stanford or a Washington State or even an Arizona or Washington talent wise. Sure, they don’t have the talent of Cal, but they are well coached and have enough talent that a couple lucky bounces of the ball puts them in the hunt with just about anyone.

And all of those bounces went the Beavers way yesterday. In my previews I said the Beavers needed to do two things to win: 1. slow the Cal rushing game. 2. not make mistakes. Guess what? That’s exactly what they did. They had only 1 turnover, and it came at one of the best spots of the field for a turnover, if there is such a place. It wasn’t deep in their own territory, giving Cal some free points and it wasn’t deep enough in Cal territory to be missing out on some guaranteed points. As for the rushing game, having a new QB for Cal played right into their defensive hands, particulary their load the box philosophy, and Cal wasn’t able to stretch the field like Longshore would have done and as a result they weren’t able to control the flow of the game.

So when one puts together that the Beavers are a pretty good team and that everything went their way, I think we shouldn’t fear that the Bears aren’t any good. In fact, call me full of optimism for the future. Riley showed me a lot of positive stuff yesterday and the young guys who continue to get playing time due to injury continue to impress. Even if this season doesn’t turn out as we hope, the future is bright if you ask me. 2008 and 2009 look even better (lone unproven area: receivers).

But back to 2007, Cal took a dangerous Pac-10 team who got all the bounces and breaks right to the limit… and they did it with a backup QB. Longshore will be back for UCLA, an infinitely beatable team. Cal has proven they can go on the road and win against good teams in the most hostile environment and I give them an 90% chance of returning to Berkeley unscathed after taking down an exposed UCLA and an untested ASU. After a quick romp over WSU at home, the game that will determine the Bears fate will be before us. I’m looking forward to it and thing the Bears have an excellent chance of winning that game. If they do, with the rest of the Pac-10 likely beating up on each other, Cal need only likely win one of the Washington or Big Game to be Rose Bowl bound.

So cheer up campers!

All of that said, I’m frankly proud of all of us bloggers and blog commentors this morning. While there was the ocassional doom and gloom sentiment, for the most part people had perspective enough to not do what the message board freaks are doing. There’s been no stream of deleted comments about literally feeding Riley to the lions, firing Tedford (or one’s favorite scapegoat assistant coach) or denying all belief in the God who has spurned up. Call me proud to be Cal blogger this morning:

Full of optimism despite a very tough and heart breaking loss and proud to call all of you fine gentlemen (and ladies) my compatriots.