UCLA debacle 5 of 5: Reasons to hope
(Written by kencraw)
As much as we’re all sick about this game, in the end, I’ve got to return to being optimistic. I see two angles for optimism… #1: The Rose Bowl is not dead… yet. #2: Tedford always strives to improve and is very perceptive.
Let’s take them one at a time…
#1 The Rose Bowl is not dead… yet
It really bugs me how negative the press was about the Bears chances. The Bears aren’t even close to dead if they win out. Now, of course what is really bothersome is that it doesn’t look like Cal has it in them to win out, but leaving that aside for the moment (and remembering just how much talent there is on this team) Cal is very much still in the hunt. Here’s what needs to happen assuming Cal wins out:
- Oregon must lose 1 (still have ASU, UCLA, OSU and USC on their schedule)… tell me it’s unlikely they’ll lose at least one of those?
- ASU must lose 1 beyond their loss to Cal (still have Oregon, UCLA and USC on their schedule)… this is the most untested team in the Pac.
- UCLA must lose 3 (still have ASU, Oregon and USC as well as WSU and Arizona on their schedule)… and this is one weak team in my opinion.
- OSU must lose 1 (still have Oregon and USC as well as WSU and Washington on their schedule)… I just can’t see them winning out.
That’s it!
Yeah, it’s not exactly a lock, particularly considering that the prerequisite is Cal wining out. But let’s not start carving the tombstone just yet. I fully expect both UCLA and ASU to fall apart down the stretch because their schedules are VERY back-loaded. The biggest risk in my opinion is Oregon and I’m pretty hopeful that either USC or OSU (remember, rivalry game) will help Cal out.
But let’s assume it doesn’t happen for the Bears, which is a reasonable assumption. That still leaves the 2nd reason to hold out a longer term hope.
#2 Tedford always strives to improve
I still have a lot of hope for Tedford’s Bears even as soon as 2008, although 2009/10 is looking really strong at this point with the recruits who are just coming in. What has always impressed me about Tedford is his ability to learn. He’s not a natural at just about anything, and I mean that as a compliment. He wasn’t a natural at QB… but he managed to lead Fresno State and Canadian football teams with authority. He isn’t a natural coach… but he managed to work his way up and find a way to relate to his players. He’s not a natural recruiter… but he’s learned that too.
How has he managed that? He’s managed it by being willing to learn. Tedford’s greatest asset is his perceptiveness and his ability to learn. Why do you think it is that so much of what Cal does today echo’s the best of what Oregon has been doing for the last decade? It’s because Tedford was there to learn and to see what was successful about their program. He’s got no pride/super-ego and is willing to take whatever works and put it to use for him.
I bring this up because the position the Bears are in right now is something entirely new to Tedford. Just like going to Tennessee last season to open the season was a new experience for him, and he completely missed the boat as the best way to prepare for a matchup like that, being a top-rated team with a bulls-eye on his back is new for Tedford too. I don’t think Tedford knows how to lead a team that knows they’re considered one of the best in the country. I don’t think Tedford knows how to play-call against teams that come in with a nothing-to-lose attitude because they’re expected to get blown out.
Did Tedford blow the play-calling against UCLA? Absolutely… but I have complete confidence in Tedford’s ability to learn and grow from this experience. Next year and every year after this, Tedford will have the experience of this year under his belt. And just watch… Tedford will make the adjustments, just like he did in his 2nd shot at the Holiday Bowl and against Oregon in Eugene and Tennessee and every other hurdle that the Bears have cleared in the last 6 years.
Tedford has not topped out. Give the man more time. I have high hopes that he will lead Cal to the promised land and a Rose Bowl berth long before any of us, God willing, die.
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:45 am
I think most of the negative press about our chances is not so much because it’s logically more difficult now (but definitely nowhere near out of the question), but because it seems as though the wheels have come off this team. I just don’t think anyone expects Cal to rebound after two brutal heartbreakers like that. I mean, how many teams that you can remember have had back to back losses in a fashion remotely similar to those? It’s unfortunate that we’re playing on the road this week, cause the team could really use some hometown lovin’. It’s important to remember that as quickly as we lost momentum, it can also be recovered. With a victory this weekend, you can be sure that we’ll all be excited again about the USC match-up, bowl possibilities, etc.
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:11 am
You’re absolutely right bub, it’s the expectations of more losses, not the math that has people so negative.
I seem to remember a Cal team that bounced back from a tough opening game loss and back-to-back, actually Rose Bowl eliminating, loses last year… this team rebounds well.
October 22nd, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Unfortunately, that rebound game was against hapless Stanford, and we were pretty iffy for three quarters. Our ‘rebound game’ this year will be much more difficult.
October 22nd, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Hmm… I didn’t give much thought to our Rose Bowl chances. I just figured that they were pretty much shot. Thanks for laying that out. Seems like we still have a chance.
October 22nd, 2007 at 1:53 pm
Hold on a second there Avinash… this is the reason to HOPE thread! Take your negativity to the “I’m disgusted” post. 🙂
There will be no looking at reality here….
October 22nd, 2007 at 6:07 pm
Reasons for hope?
Even if Rose Bowl requires a lot of things to break our way, a BCS bid (say, Orange Bowl) is still entirely possible. And Miami is a fun place for New Years from what I hear.
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:18 pm
Rishi’s right. No matter how the Pac-10 race breaks, a 10-2 Cal team riding a 5-game win streak with a number of signature wins to its credit, as well as a number of nationally-known playmakers, would be a very strong candidate for an at-large BCS berth. I’m still clinging to hope of Cal in the Rose Bowl, but going to the Orange Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl instead wouldn’t exactly suck. Especially if it involved USC being relegated to the Holiday Bowl–or worse.
Here’s hoping that we see a rejuvenated Bears team on Saturday (and beyond) now that a giant BCS target is no longer pinned squarely on their backs. Perhaps everyone will loosen up and just go back to havin’ fun, something I’m not sure they’ve done all season long. Step one: how about Jackson actually fields a punt this week, and without calling for a fair catch? And isn’t it about time Jahvid Best finds his way into the end zone again?
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:26 pm
You guys who still think we are going to the Rose Bowl and a possible at large berth make me angry. Get over it, that’s not going to happen this year. The sooner you learn to live with that the better off you will be in the long run. This Cal team is hurting this year, hurting very badly. Our sensational rise to prominence in such a fast manner left many of the players, and yes indeed the coaches, believing they were something they are not. A trip to the Las Vegas Bowl would be a blessing, wishing for anything more is twisted and cruel. For all you so called ‘Young Blue’s’ out there this is your cue to grow up, and fast. Soon you will feel you are going through very dark days that will test your loyalty and commitment to this team. Learn to accept what it is and be thankful for small moral victories, such as beating Stanfurd. Stop acting like spoiled babies crying for coaching/player changes every time we lose. We are going to lose at least two more games this year — so preparing yourself mentally — ahead of time — would be very wise.
October 23rd, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Jarod, if you look at the results of the poll, very few people here think we are “going” to the Rose Bowl or an at-large BCS bowl. But that doesn’t mean we can’t look at the standings and HOPE. In fact, I would go so far as to say hope in the face of every blindingly obvious reality is a prerequisite for long term Cal-fanhood.
The Pac-10 championship is still a possibility, admittedly an outside one. Trust me, nobody is going to be as upset as they were last Saturday if Cal loses one or two more, but we are going to hold out hope when there is still hope to be found.
One comment on the at-large bowl berth, I think that it’s effectively impossible that a 2-loss Cal will get an at-large bid to anything but the Rose Bowl and maybe… and I mean VERY outside chance maybe… the Fiesta Bowl. No bowl outside of Pac-10 territory is going to take a 2-loss Pac-10 team, a 1-loss Pac-10 team probably, but not a 2-loss Pac-10 team.
October 23rd, 2007 at 7:59 pm
The Rose Bowl scenario does not require UCLA to lose 3.
UCLA can lose 2 and have the tiebreaker over Cal, but lack the tiebreaker over USC or Oregon (or both, if USC beats Oregon but loses to Cal). In a 3 or 4 way tie, when no one team has beaten all others in the tie, the team with the worst W-L record against the other teams in the tie is dropped, then the tie is re-evaluated. UCLA could very well end up the victim of this rule.
As I see it, if Cal gets back to playing how they did early in this season, they will run the table and have a decent chance of going to the Rose Bowl (the largest “help” Cal needs is for someone to beat Oregon). If they lose again, they won’t have earned the Rose Bowl. In that case, I’d actually hope for the Emerald Bowl so I can go.
October 23rd, 2007 at 10:24 pm
Absolutely right MikeD (and well/sucinctly stated). I didn’t go into that because of the details of the other matchups that would have to play out a certain way for those tie-breakers to go Cal’s way (it gets complicated fast particularly with a 3-way tie that likely has all players with a 1-1 record in the tie). Easier to state 3 losses, both because it will for sure be enough and I fully expect that to happen. If things get tight down the road (particularly after the USC game), I’ll make sure to have a post with specific scenarios.
October 23rd, 2007 at 10:32 pm
Ken, I think you underestimate how nationally appealing a 10-2 Cal team would be. One benefit of the early season hype is becoming established–at least for this year–as one of the high-profile teams in 2007. Also, there will be no Notre Dame in the BCS mix and (quite probably) no non-BCS-conference party crasher. Add in the fact that our hypothetically 10-2 Bears would be riding a 5-game win streak with victories over ranked teams from ASU and USC, plus the earlier victories over Oregon and Tennessee, and the Fiesta Bowl would snatch that Cal team up in a second.
In response to Jarod, none of this is a prediction. It’s merely speculative hope of what could be. I’m the first to say all this talk of bowl possibilities is premature–very premature. Only after the ‘SC game can we begin to realistically consider potential scenarios. Still, this hope is not quite the pipe dream you seem to suggest. I’m no young Blue myself, and my current hopes for Cal playing on New Year’s Day 2008 are on a far more realistic plane than my naive hopes back in 1985 that Marc Hicks would lead Joe Kapp to the tequila-soaked promised land of Pasadena. This is a good Bears team that is legitimately just a “couple of plays” away from being ranked #1 in the country. That doesn’t make it a great team, and that doesn’t guarantee that they won’t finish 7-5. But it’s premature to write them off now.
And I agree with Ken: irrationally holding out hope–all the while knowing in the back of your mind that you’re desperately clinging to a raisin in the sun–is the very epitome of being a Cal fan. Go Bears! Cynicism is what they specialize in down in Westwood.
October 26th, 2007 at 9:20 am
Found it. The UCLA Torrent, for those of you with the strength to watch it.
http://www.torrentportal.com/details/1471203/Cal%40UCLA.iso.html
October 27th, 2007 at 8:14 pm
1.Asu loses to cal,oregon, and usc for three losses
2. Ucla loses to oregon and usc for three losses
3. Usc loses to cal for three losses
4. Oregon state loses to Usc and oregon for four losses
5. Oregon wins out and makes national championship?
not impossible
6. Cal wins out and makes rose bowl
I dont see anybody beating Oregon and I dont see a two loss team in a different BCS game the system loves one loss teams like west virginia way too much.