(Written by kencraw)

My weekly statistical preview article is posted at Rivals: Crunching the Numbers: USC vs Cal.

As has been the trend, the article is subscription free.

(Written by kencraw)

Many may ask why this site has been so quiet the last few days. Could it be that Ken is following Jason’s example of “if you don’t have anything good to say, don’t say anything at all.” Or perhaps my perpetually upbeat nature can’t find any angle on which to predict a win?

Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Nope. The only thing keeping me from posting is that I’ve been CRAZY busy this week. I’ve had a huge project due at work today and at home I’ve been on kid duty while my wife has been finishing up her Master’s Thesis. I’ve been dying to find time to post, but it just hasn’t been there.

See, there’s lots to feel good about. This Cal team is VERY capable of beating USC. I don’t think this team could beat the 2004-2006 USC teams, in fact I think this team is weaker than either the 2004 and 2006 Bears which both lost to USC (although I do think the 2004 Bears would have been the 2006 Trojans, but I digress). But the 2007 Bears don’t have to play those Trojan teams. They have to play the 2007 Trojans.

The 2007 Trojans are not a team to be scared of. They’ve lost to Stanford… AT HOME! They’ve struggled against Arizona and Washington. They lost to Oregon on the same field that Cal beat the Ducks… and that game was not as close as the score or the final opportunity to tie.

So there is no question that the Bears are capable of beating USC, the question is can they put together the same type of game they put together to beat Oregon. I mean, they haven’t played a game at the level of the Oregon game since Longshore got injured in the 4th quarter of that game.

But to me, that’s the key. I think the Bears struggles start and end at the quarterback position. The Bears are such a balanced team that when they lose that balance they give the opposition an opportunity to hide their defensive weaknesses. When they have balance, there is no way the defense can keep from being exposed. And the Bears haven’t had offensive balance since Longshore got injured.

Don’t get me wrong, I think they had potential to have offensive balance. By putting more trust in Riley in his start or being willing to let Longshore sling the ball around when he first came back I think the Bears could have had the balance they are capable of. But whatever the reason, the Bears haven’t had that balance. So the question remains, can Cal get that balance back?

I think the answer is an unqualified yes. I think between Longshore getting health and Tedford growing more comfortable with his team’s strengths and weaknesses with Longshore less than 100%, I think the Bears will get their mojo back.

Bears win 24-17.

(Written by kencraw)

Here’s my thoughts on the game:

• One thing that I didn’t see mentioned in any of the various analysis out there was how much better the kickoff coverage was. Larson was getting the ball down deep with good hang time and the coverage team was both getting down field quickly and closing down the holes. I don’t think WSU got past the 30 on a single kickoff, which is a huge improvement over past weeks where it seemed every runback was getting up to the 30 and about 1 out of every 3 was getting far too close to midfield.
• The first 3rd down for WSU really worried me because it reminded me so much of the OSU and UCLA games. After stuffing the offense on both 1st and 2nd down, on 3rd down the Bear defense falls back into coverage and gives up a surprisingly easy 10-15 yard completion. Luckily that trended didn’t hold in big part because of the pressure the defense was able to get on the QB.
• While watching the TV coverage I heard for the first time that their punter does that roll-out option punt all the time… and I thought it was just something to keep the ball away from DeSean. After watching him for most of the game I began to wonder why more teams don’t roll the ball down the field more often. There’s no hope of a runback and it’s not hard to get 40+ yards on it.
• Contining in the trend of things I saw early that was troubling was Forsett getting tackled in the backfield on the first play for the Bears.
• The wide receiver screens didn’t work very well for the Bears against WSU. The good news is that they always got positive yardage, unlike some of the previous games. I mean, let’s be honest, a 3-4 yard quick-out is more reliable than an inside run these days.
• The first drive for the Bears is indicative of the change in play-calling in the redzone. Outside the redzone: 8 completion on 9 attempts for 56 yards. 4 Rushes for 11 yards. Inside the redzone: 4 rushes and no passes for 13 yards. The most frustrating to me was the QB sneak on 2nd down. That’s the most predictable play in the play-book, 2nd and 1 from the 1 yard line… you can count on a QB sneak 4 out of 5 times. I even called this one to my peers sitting with me ahead of time. Nevertheless, in this instance the Bears were able to score on 3rd and goal with a sweep run play: 7-0
• Another thing that was improved in this game was the defensive back timing on hitting the recievers. DeCoud and Hicks were particularly good at it with DeCoud breaking up a deep pass in the 1st quarter and Hicks creating that interception late in the 2nd quarter.
• That interception by Longshore is another one that is just terrifying. Is it really his ankle? He seemed healthy for the vast majority of the game. The only thing is that he didn’t seem to step into that throw. Was that just poor form or not wanting to put weight on a sore ankle? Tough to call but it’s critical that Cal find a way to get the ball down-field to keep defenses honest and that’ll mean that Longshore is going to have to get some touch on the deep ball no what the cause of the failure.
• The defense though stepped up again and forced a 3-and-out. A very strong effort and at a very important time, right after the interception. Turned what could have been a momentum turning drive into a meaningless turnover.
• What did Tedford call after the interception? 4 run plays in a row. Unlike at other points in the game, Forsett was able to get big chunks of yards for 2 first downs.
• Interestingly though, although Cal went back to the air after the quarter break, when Cal did run later in the drive, Forsett wasn’t able to get the yards of his first 4. Was that the defense adjusting to a renewed run emphasis by Cal? Whatever the cause, Tedford made the necessary adjustments to go back to the air and continue the drive.
• An intersting note is that both of the big errant throws were to Hawkins and on the 2nd throw Hawkins did an awesome job of making the transition to being the defender and preventing the interception.
• But now comes the baffling part… the redzone. After great balance for the first part of the drive (7 passes, 7 rushes), Cal then runs 5 consecutive run plays in the redzone, finishing with the option. With Longshore!?! That’s 9 plays in the redzone on two drives and ALL of them were rushing plays. Just baffling. At least the field-goal was good: 10-0.
• I was surprised just how many errant throws Brink had. I’ve seen him a number of times now and every time but this time he was very good and was what kept WSU in games where they were completely out-manned. This time he had a number of opportunities to get WSU back in the game and his throws were off the mark.
• Despite the fact that Cal’s last two possession of the 1st half were both 3 and out, I felt like there was balance there and generally good opportunities to move the ball. Of course the last possession was really hindered by that stupid 15 yard personal foul penalty. That was the only “stupid” penalty for the Bears all day thankfully, but it was stupid enough that it stalled the drive. Without the penalty it would have been 2nd and 1 after a great run by Best. After the dead-ball penalty, it was 2nd and 16.
• Not to be forgotten, got to repeat how great the hit Hicks made to knock that ball out for the interception. That interception was key. That was WSU’s only significant drive of the 1st half and if the ball was caught it would have been 1st and goal if not a TD outright. A 10-0 lead is a big difference than 10-7.
• In the 2nd half, I was pretty happy that the Bears got the 1st possession. What a great opportunity to put the game away, right? Well it would have been if Longshore hadn’t treated the snapped football like a greased watermelon. I hate to continue to pile on, but what a way to throw away the opportunity to really distance themselves.
• Of course WSU was able to score their first points, a field-goal that came on the short 34 yard drive that required a 4th down conversion to complete: 10-3
• On Cal’s next drive, they continued to mix it up… but what happens when they get in the redzone? HA! Fooled you!!! This time it was 1 rush and 1 pass, so we can’t harp on the play-calling. But we can harp on Hawkins dropping an easy completion that would have kept the drive alive. While it’s not the same failure mode, it’s still another redzone appearance that ended in less than a TD. The Bears were 1 for 4 in touchdowns in the redzone (the fumble on the 1 yard line yet to come) and 75% for points. That’s got to be 50% plus touchdowns and 90% points to be successful. To be fair, this is the one that it’s understandable that they didn’t get the TD, but the overall point remains: 13-3
• While the previous penalty against Cal was a stupid one, the next one was a bogus one. That was a horrible pass interference call against Syd’Quan. If anything it should have been offensive pass interference for pushing off.
• But you got to give the defense credit. Even though they’d been back on the field a fair amount in the late 3rd quarter with the 3 and out bracketting two WSU drives, they managed to step it up in WSU’s first redzone appearance and hold them to a field-goal: 13-6
• The next Cal drive they managed to get back to the balance to get the ball down close to the redzone. I found it interesting that on both 2nd and 3rd and 3 from 21 yard line Cal took two shots towards the endzone. The 2nd was complete although DeSean didn’t manage to get the ball into the endzone. But what do the Bears do once in the redzone? Two consecutive rushes up the middle from the 1 yard line. To make matters worse, Forsett fumbled the ball on the 2nd attempt. Nevertheless we’ve got a total of 13 plays in the redzone and 12 of them were rushing plays.
• I don’t know what to make of that long pass play WSU converted mid-4th quarter. On the one hand, Hicks did have a beat on the interception if he had just stepped forward and bit. On the other hand, that’s the risk of not going for the hit/tackle instead: a long pass completion. Thanfully DeCoud was able to catch up to the reciever and prevent the touchdown allowing the defense to re-group and hold WSU to a field-goal: 13-9.
• Going back to the field-goal, I was really surprised WSU went for the field-goal. After they’d shown no ability to consistently put up yards until that long pass play, don’t you have to go for it and accept the risk of the big momentum swing that comes based on how the 4th down play would turn out?
• Longshore was stepping into his passes better late in the game. Tedford never called a play that had Longshore passing deep to test that throwing motion, but qualitatively it seemed like Longshore got more comfortable as the game wore on. Hopefully that trend will continue.
• FINALLY Forsett broke a run open. Of course the key to the running game is not the ability to break out the long runs (really it’s to get 4-5 yards each attempt and grind things out) but it is nice when the running game can add to the quick strike ability of the team: 20-9
• While the first big WSU pass play is somewhat excusable, the 2nd is pretty bad. You can’t let up on your coverage because it looks like Cal might get a sack/safety. Let the linemen do their job and you do yours. Speaking of which, I had thought it was Syd who missed the coverage and I said so in my podcast. It was instead Hicks.
• And it was Hicks who blew the coverage on the eventual TD. Let’s not forget that the long pass play didn’t even get WSU down into the redzone, only to the Cal 33. After that Cal was mostly able to hold WSU where they were minus a 4th down conversion that setup the 18 yard TD pass that never should have happened: 20-15
• After thoroughly reviewing the 2-point conversion I think that it was a marginal call and one that the booth shouldn’t have overturned. The reciever was darned lucky he landed on top of the defender for the rollover. But even that said, I think his butt was down before the ball crossed the plane. The key was the angle from the endzone. The view down the line didn’t give a good view of whether his knee or butt hit down first and when that was. Also complicating matters was that the goal line goes out of view right as his butt touches the ground by synthesizing the two views. Nevertheless my extrapolation of those moments suggest that his butt was down mid his attempt to reach over the goal line and before the ball actually crossed the plane:20-17
• Thankfully Cal recovered the onside kick with a perfectly executed reception using a few of the recievers as blockers for Hawkins who caught the ball.

Overall, I think that this Cal team is just some play-calling in the redzone tweaks and an ankle healing (or said differently, the current/former ankle injury no longer affecting Longshore’s throwing motion and touch) from getting back to the team that beat Oregon. Whether those things will happen before the USC game is anyone’s guess, but I very much believe the team is capable of beating USC with a strong performance.

(Written by kencraw)

The podcast is finally posted. I was unable to post it over the weekend because I left the docking cable for my audio recorder in the office. Then yesterday was one of those days at work where I had so little time it was all I could do just to do make sure I brought the cable home… which I forgot. That made today the first day where I could upload it. Sorry about the delay.

Click on the link on the titlebar to go listen to it.

In other administrative news, the plan is to re-watch the game and do my full post-game analysis tonight.

Standard Podcast [ 22:36 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

(Written by kencraw)

My weekly analysis article has been published over at cal.rivals.com: Controlling the clock key in Cal win.

As has been the trend lately and looks like it will generally continue, this article is free to all to read.

(Written by kencraw)

Today’s rankings have Cal back in the top 25 after a single week just outside the limit. The Bears are 24 in the AP and 25 in the Harris. The remained at 27 in the always lagging coaches poll. The combination of 25, 27 and unranked in the computers puts them at 27 in the meaningless at this point BCS rankings.

Don’t under-estimate the importance of being in the AP top-25 however. From an exposure perspective it’s a big deal. For starters, a lot of websites and news services cover the games of the top-25. Many may have noticed nary a mention of the Cal vs. WSU game on ESPN in the last week, in big part because they key on the top-25 and neither Cal nor WSU were in it. Add in all of the pick-em leagues that pick winners of the top-25 games and one can see that being in the top-25 is huge from an exposure perspective.

Let’s hope that Cal shows up in Berkeley next Saturday and makes good on the exposure that comes with a still in the hunt for a BCS game and 14th ranked (AP poll) USC game comes to town.

(Written by kencraw)

I know it’s after the fact, put I wanted to make sure I linked to it from here in any case:

Crunching the Numbers: Cal vs. WSU

(Written by kencraw)

The Bears FINALLY got back in the win column last night… but it was one of the most uninspiring win of the Tedford era. How many times do the Bears have to run it up the gut inside the 5 yard line to know that between the young/weak offensive line and defenses keying on it that it’s just NOT going to happen.

There will be plenty of commentary to come, although most of it is going to have to wait until tonight. Unfortunately the podcast won’t be posted until tomorrow because I left the critical cable to upload the audio in the office. However I do plan to do my full re-watch game analysis tonight. In the mean time, here are a few thoughts:

• The team that played last night WILL NOT beat USC. The good news is that they’re some better redzone play calling and Longshore getting back into rythym from being the team that can pull it off.
• The defense had one of its best performances of the season outside of both those last two big WSU plays and of course their performance against Oregon.
• Longshore looked fairly healthy for the majority of the game. Perhaps 90%. His one big interception was an under-thrown ball that had the feel of the ASU injured Longshore and there were a few other moments where he was moving around a little gimpy, but for the most part this was the old Longshore, mobility wise.
• Despite getting a bit more healthy, you can tell that Longshore and the offense are still suffering from his injury. They felt about as in sync as a 2nd week of the season team, not a 9th week. This injury has completely disrupted the team’s timing and Longshore’s over-the-middle confidence (it seemed he was using the out patterns as a crutch a lot). Hopefully now that he’s closer to full strength a good week of practice and reflection will get them back in sync for the big matchup next week.

More to come…

(Written by kencraw)

(Imagine the above as the voice of shaggy from Scooby Doo)

Today I’d like to take every to a different time.

It was a simplier time. A time when there was no quaterback controversy. A time when the defense was better than bending. A time when Tedford was still above reproach and everything he touched turned to gold… with one exception: Joseph Ayoob.

What… did you think I was talking about 2004?

No, I’m talking about 2005. A team that may just have been Cal’s best team ever if one projects that Longshore would have played as well in 2005 as he did in 2006. That team had everything. It had a great defense (Mebane, Hughes, Mixon, Bishop, Tafisi, McCluskey, Foltz… man they were ALL good). It had the same wide receiver core as today, albeit a little less polished. It had probably the best offensive line in the Pac-10 in over a decade (Merz, O’Callaghan, Phillip, et. al.). It even had a mostly injury free Marshawn Lynch. Yup, it had everything EXCEPT a quarterback.

After going 5-0 against a pretty weak set of opponents, the lack of a quarterback sacked Cal in two consecutive games against UCLA and Oregon State. Everyone was crushed. The Bears had fallen out of the top-25, something they’d been in every week for more than a year. Was it time to sit the QB, the ONLY QB the Bears really had? Washington State was coming to town and everyone feared that the once great Bears were going to lose, that the Bears would turn into an absolute disgrace.

Sound familiar?

Yes, 2007 has a surprisingly 2005 feel to it. Of course the big difference is that Ayoob was completely healthy and unable to perform whereas Longshore has been hampered by injury adding a lot of questions marks as to whether a turn around is in the making as his injuries heal without going to the level of benching him in favor of the backup.

No matter what the cause of the 2005/2007 collapses, I’m confident about one thing: WSU is the perfect team to undo the odd year blues. This is a pretty weak team and one that if the Bears come to play at all, will win with ease. Don’t even bother with the “they beat UCLA” comments or the “their run defense seems pretty stout”… that’s all garbage thinking. They’re beating UCLA has more to do with UCLA’s inconsistency and Cal’s inability to beat a remarkably mediocre team than it has anything to do with WSU. The run defense isn’t stout, just the worse of the two alternatives for opponents who are able to light them up in the air. Also, this is a team that hasn’t won on the road yet (that’s the counter to the “they took ASU to the brink” argument as well). Average score of their road games you ask? Try 15-47 including a humiliating 20-48 loss to Arizona.

Add in that the Bears are hungry and there is nothing better than WSU to end an odd year hibernation. Bears win this in a walk: 31-10 (sticking with my preseason prediction)

(Written by kencraw)

UPDATE at 3:45 PM on October 29th: TwistNHook isn’t going to let me off the hook (snicker, snicker)… see the below corrections in bold.

ARG!?! All this time the problem was under our noses! WeI should have known that the Bears had no hope at the Rose Bowl with it firmly planted on my sidebar schedule on the blog. What was I thinking!?! Thank God TwistNHook found it too late.

All insults and disgust can now be put on me for cursing the Bears. (Including taking additional claims of finding said error.)

(I changed it today… but it was far too late)

(Written by kencraw)

For those who aren’t in a complete loss-induced stupor, they will remember that in parallel to the BIG court case run by Judge Miller that will determine the fate of the SAHPC, the University also requested of another judge that he grant an order to remove the tree-sitters from the trees. Judge Keller agreed and granted the order but he only did it for the individuals the University could name. Unfortunately for Cal fans, the tree sitters look more like terrorists than citizens and are unwilling to give their real names. As such there was only one person affected by the original order. Unaffected by that setback, the University went back to court and asked that all who are perched in the trees, whether they be named or not, be ordered out.

Today Judge Keller granted that order.

Good news for Bears fans. I suspect it won’t make a difference for the WSU or USC games as the University has shown over and over that they have no interest in setting up a 24-hour survellance of the site to prevent the tree-sitters from re-entering the trees (and as such aren’t going to remove the sitters until the trees are about to come down) and somehow I doubt the tree-sitters are going to come down voluntarily. But this is good news nevertheless.

(Written by kencraw)

OK, I guess this is going to have to be a feature after every loss… reasons to hope:

1. Let’s not forget that ASU is a pretty good team. I think that all other things aside, like a 3-game losing streak and the Rose Bowl, Cal fans wouldn’t be as distraught about this game as they currently are.
2. I think we need to remember just how injured Longshore is. I think that once he gets back on his feet he’ll get back most of his game. Yeah we can question the decisions the coaching staff has made to start who they have when they have, but hindsight is 20/20 and it doesn’t change the fact that the coaching staff can make the right decisions in the coming weeks.
3. I know I’ve said this after every loss but this is still one talented team and one that could beat every team left on the schedule. Yes the morale will have to improve and yes the execution will have to improve, but I think this team is still capable of greatness. Yes the bowl game will suck being at least the Sun Bowl or lower, but 10 wins is 10 wins and will still look good for recruiting. Finishing strong makes a big difference.
4. Cal has WSU at home this Saturday. If there was ever a team Cal needed on the schedule, it’s this WSU team. They’re no good at all. Don’t take anything from their beating UCLA. All that proves is that UCLA is every bit as bad as we thought and that loss is every bit as disgraceful as we hate to know.
5. How great would it be to beat USC this year? It’s almost all the better that Cal has 3 losses. That will make it all the more disasterous to the most arrogant fans in college football. If you doubt it, look deep inside. You know in your heart of hearts that Cal has the talent to beat USC if you watched the Oregon vs. USC game.

Let’s not forget to cheer the Bears on Saturday.

(Written by kencraw)

Here are my thoughts after re-watching the game:

• Interesting to hear that Tedford deferred on the initial kickoff. That’s going back to a pre-30 yard line kickoff mindset. Perhaps he’s been unconvinced the extra free yardage has changed things that much.
• I remember thinking after the first play (a false start by ASU) that “yup, same old ASU, not up for the big game.”
• And re-iterated that thought after the sack on 3rd down and the 3 and out (making Tedford look smart for deferring).
• Longshore’s first pass was an over-throw… a sign of things to come.
• After making an easy swing pass, Longshore’s next throw?… a big miss deep where perhaps it was a miscommunication between Jordan and Longshore over the middle.
• And on the back of those two bad throws, Cal had to try 2 consecutive 3rd downs… always bad.
• And it doesn’t help that a false start backed up that 2nd 3rd down from 3rd and 6 to 3rd and 11.
• And those 5 yards were huge as it completely changes the plays that’ll work. The pass to DeSean may have had a hope on 3rd and 6.
• And then the field goal block, which was Kay’s fault… he didn’t get any air under it.
• So what do we have… we have a team that comes out of the gates a little slow and although got fairly deep in ASU territory is stalled by Longshore being off and a false start penalty.
• And then Cal gets a free gift… a fumble for a touchdown. Tell me this didn’t feel like the same old ASU at this point? But remember this later, every time Cal is up by (pick your score) that it’s really 7 points less if you’re just comparing offense to offense.
• The first play after the TD was a perfect example of how the worn down defense killed the Bears later. On that play, Herring nearly slipped the tackle of DeCoud, but DeCoud managed to hold on long enough and slow him enough that the rest of the defense was able to pursue to the ball and keep it to a short gain. Later in the game, that first tackle didn’t have any holding on and Herring was gone.
• And after a weak run and another Carpenter mis-fire, another 3 and out from the pseudo-2006 ASU offense.
• Now to give Longshore credit, his next throw, a 44 yard pass to DeSean was right on the money… to keep the critical aspect though, that was a marginal receiver to throw to. DeSean was pretty well covered and it was somewhat lucky (or based on DeSean’s talent, depending on how you look at it) that DeSean was able to go up and get that one.
• But yet again the drive stalls. This time yet another poorly thrown ball where DeSean was perfectly positioned between the corner and the safety (corner-2 coverage) on 1st down, a weak run out of the shotgun and an out pattern that was thrown well but Jordan didn’t handle well and bounced off his fingers. So not all Longshore’s fault, but he missed a near TD again. Luckily Kay makes the field goal to prevent complete futility. This drive should have been for a TD though.
• ASU goes three and out again on the back of a 1st down holding call, two mediocre runs (considering the down and distance) and Zack Follet getting pressure on the edge and forcing a bad throw while hanging on Carpenter’s hip… tell me again that this isn’t the pseudo-2006 ASU team?
• And Cal quickly marches down the field on the backs of Forsett (including a quick pass from Longshore) and Stevens… in fact both were quick passes. So far Longshore’s only pass with any touch was the long bomb to DeSean. BUT… they can’t punch it in with 1st and goal from the 6 on a stuffed run up the middle on 1st down, a throw away on Longshore’s rollout where DeSean was covered, and a busted up slant on 3rd down to DeSean again… a pretty ineffective set of 3 plays. None of them had a hope.
• So to recap, with 1 minute left in the 1st quarter we’ve had 4 ASU drives all 3 and out or worse (two and fumble for a TD) and Cal got the ball inside the 30 on all three of their drives and came away with 6 points on 3 field goal attempts. That’s just not acceptable against a good team. You’ve got to put them away early when given a chance like that.
• Because what happens after that? Dennis Erickson knows how to get his players back on the right track, unlike his predicessor. Carpenter’s passes all of sudden got on track (including a dropped ball in the endzone on the second set of downs). After a handful of good Carpenter passes, a tough face-mask penalty and a horrible run-stopping play later, ASU has erased their spotted 7 points on the fumble and are only down the measley 6 points the Cal offense could muster in the quarter.
• That was the turning point for the ASU offense getting back on track. They spotted Cal a quarter of bad offense and a fumble for a TD, but after that, they were back on track.
• Cal did their 2nd reverse of the day on their next drive and just like the first, although it got 4 yards, those just aren’t the big gainers they used to be.
• Cal marched it down into the redzone yet again… all the way down to a 1st and goal from the 7. Yes, Cal finally punched this one in on a VERY close to being out of bounds pass to DeSean, a pass interference call on DeSean backed them up to 1st and goal from the 22… that’s not going to work most of the time. Cal got lucky on that one.
• Ah man, I completely forgot about this next play, the first 3rd down of ASU’s next drive. DeCoud was blitzing and got offsides, but the resulting play was a tipped interception (that of course didn’t count). So instead of Cal ball in ASU territory, a 3rd and 6 turns into a easily converted 3rd and 1. At first I didn’t hold that against DeCoud, I figured he’s just trying to make a play. But considering how much of this happened including a pass interference call against Syd’Quan two plays later, all of these penalties were inexcusable. What a missed opportunity that play was.
• This is the same drive where ASU went for it twice on 4th and 1… not sure one can hold that against Cal, 4th and 1 really is a down the offense should convert most of the time, but it shows just how close the Bears were to stiffling ASU yet again, particularly when joined with the penalty undone interception. Looking at it from ASU’s perspective, this was a time to be really agressive. Down 7-20, already on Cal’s side of the field, why not be aggressive?
• Now the 2nd 4th and 1, that was ridiculously horrible with 12 men on the field. How ridiculous is that coming out of a timeout? Again, penalties kill Cal and of course ASU is able to punch it in. ASU within 6 yet again despite Carpenter being only 3 of 8 and ASU only having about 80 total yards of offense compared to the Bears with over 200 yards of offense and actually scoring fewer points with the 7 the defense handed the offense.
• ANOTHER big miss by Longshore. This time to Jordon. How great would it have been to have one last drive by Cal to go up 27-14? Nope, instead Longshore starts missing everyone. The third down play after a timeout didn’t have a chance, Longshore throwing a ball that DeSean didn’t have a chance at both because it was over-thrown and because he was doubled covered (and well double covered at that).
• But the defense holds (or should I say that Carpenter missed some passes again… still reason to believe that this is the same old pseudo-2006 ASU at this point) and gives Cal another chance with a minute and a half left.
• For any lurking ASU fans who want to complain about the refs on the fumbled punt return by DeSean at the end of the 1st half, the refs made the right call and it’s more important than you think that the back judge waved his arms and assumably blew his whistle. A bunch of Cal players were in the area and stopped pursuing the ball, unlike the ASU players. A big part of that was because the ref called it dead. That’s why it’s important that he called it dead. No one knows who would have recovered had he not called it dead.
• But what does the offense do? They blow that opportunity too with a false start, two overthrown balls by Longshore, a holding penalty, a weak inside run play on 2nd and 20, (and then a timeout? for 3rd and 16 with 36 seconds left?) and then a fairly good out pattern for 15 yards (aka 1 yard too short). And then a punt… which is a risky play. Why call the timeout in that instance?… In any case, it was a really weak effort by the Bears and netted zero points.
• So I don’t know about everyone else but at this point I had a huge mixture of optimism and fear. Fear because I saw how close the score was and thought that if ASU could play a more balanced 2nd half, the Bears would be in trouble but also optimistic because there was reason to hope that both the Bears offense and defense could be effective in the 2nd half.
• But this is the difference in ASU with Erickson at the helm. He was able to get his team motivated at halftime and was able to make the adjustments needed.
• And what does Cal do? The get one first down and then Longshore throws two passes off the mark so they have to punt away, blowing their halftime possession advantage.
• While ASU comes out and scores on their first possession. And they’ve got the gusto to go for it on 4th and 1 again inside the redzone. This one again is disgusting because he was hit behind the line of scrimmage and two Bears had a shot at him including Follet who should have nailed him but went head down too early and completely missed Herring. WRAP HIM UP!?!
• To Cal’s credit, they respond on their next drive with a number of 1st downs when they get the most bogus ref penalty call of the whole day. He was off the line by a good 2 yards. Ridiculous nitpicking by the refs. Everything crumbled on the drive from there (and the foul undid a first down). A false start put the Bears back at 2nd and 15 and then Longshore underthrew Hawkins, setting up 3rd and 15 where Longshore WAY overthrew it. This is, in my opinion, where Longshore fell apart and I’m not sure why it was this moment.
• One thing that was disappointing with the Bear defense was there inability to keep ASU backed up in their endzone. Twice ASU had to start a drive around their 5 yard line and twice Cal gave up a mid-depth pass play on 1st down completely undoing the field position advantage.
• I think Cal was playing Worrell Williams WAY too deep as the middle linebacker throughout this game. There were a number of times I saw him 20 yards deep. They almost played him like a 3rd safety at times. When the ASU passing game finally got working, it was because there was a HUGE underneath range to throw into and there were lots of yards to get after the catch because Williams was nowhere to be found.
• There were really only 3 drives in the 3rd quarter. Cal got the ball back with 1:08 left in the 3rd after the field goal by ASU.
• You can tell at this point that Tedford and Longshore were butting heads. They were at each other as the 3rd quarter ended.
• And then Longshore throws the WAY WAY WAY WAY under thrown interception where if he’d got it out there DeSean would have had a free TD. That was a horrible turning point of the game. I think Longshore doesn’t respond well to critcism from Tedford. It seems his effort/heart level drops after those head-butting moments with Tedford.
• After the interception, a series that put the Cal defense back on the field very quickly, the defense looked tired for the first time. An offense just HAS to give the defense more time than that. Those INTs are horrible for defensive rest time.
• Luckily for the Bears, the double pass by Carpenter and the associated penalty killed the drive.
• On the next drive, another reverse that doesn’t work for Cal.
• On the very next play, Longshore throws his second pick in two possessions… and leaves the field limping
• And the defense looks REALLY tired after only getting 4 plays off.
• And ASU takes advantage marching the ball easily into the endzone and to add injury to insult, Cal lost Rulon Davis who was a primary reason the Bears were stopping the run as well as they were.
• ASU had 4 trips into the redzone and scored a TD on all 4… that and Longshore’s poorly throw balls (including the turnovers) were the difference.
• Upon more reflection, I think Tedford made the wrong decision to leave Longshore in there. It wasn’t about creating a QB controversy or having lack of faith in Longshore. It was all about Longshore limping off the field. He was injured. He clearly had trouble throwing the ball. He was more injured than he was letting on. That’s when it is time to put in the backup.
• And what happens? Longshore throws two errant passes on another 3 and out.
• Cal would never get the ball again as ASU ground out the game on the ground against a defense that never got a sustained drive to give them a chance to rest.

And that’s all she wrote. Looking back over the post, I counted 13 errant passes by Longshore. Let me repeat that: THIRTEEN!!!! I think it’s acceptable for a QB to have up to 5 bad throws a game, but there is no way Longshore should be throwing 13 obviously poorly thrown balls on 36 attempts. That’s more than one out of every 3.

While I was very down on Longshore’s heart in my podcast, I think upon further review while there was some lack of heart, I think more and more that it was the injury. This entire season turned on the fateful play in Oregon. I mean Cal was up 7 and had the ball in Oregon with little enough time on the clock that a solid drive with even a field-goal could put the game away. Instead the Bears had to rely on the defense holding Oregon scoreless, which as we all know, they BARELY accomplished. Ever since then, the Bear offense has been off the mark. In the first game against OSU, it took Riley a half to get rolling and Tedford had him on a short leash. In the second game, Longshore was clearly injured and Tedford had him on a short leash. In the third game Tedford let off on the leash and Longshore couldn’t perform. I’m thinking this injury has been causing all kinds of problems and no one is willing to admit it.

So my heart is still broken and I don’t have much more to say. We’re all searching for answers and I don’t think there is just one answer that explains everything. All I know is that this season had so much hope and this team is so talented and it just hasn’t happened.

How sad is that?

(Written by kencraw)

The ASU podcast is posted on the podcast page. Go over and hear me in my distressed state on Saturday night.

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(Written by kencraw)

OK, I needed a day just to de-stress and de-disgust myself. Starting today I’ll do my usual post-game blogging. The podcast was recorded after the game on Saturday and I just need to convert and crop it and the such. It should be up later today. I’ll do a game review/recap this evening. Finally, expect a “all the questions that have gone through my mind” post about reasons I’ve thought may be the underlying cause of the 3 game skid.

After that, on to WSU.

(Written by jsnell)

7:14 PM: Phil will be joining me for today’s action. Phil: “I feel like this game could have started long ago.” No kidding. What’s the delay here? I’m sleepy already.

7:18 PM: Phil: “Well, one less fraudulent team at the top of the Pac-10 standings. Let’s make it two.”

7:18 PM: Get that guy! Three and out on a sack by Rulon Davis.

7:21 PM: I have to say, getting it to Jahvid Best with space to run is generally gonna work out. Roll on you Bears.

7:23 PM: Jordan makes something out of nothing when a screen collapses to the inside by turning outside.

7:24 PM: Justin Tryon, poor sport (see last year’s punt coverage) stops Jackson short of the first down. At least Jackson wasn’t defenseless this time. And they block Jordan Kay’s kick. Of course.

7:29 PM: Cameron Jordan recovers a fumble by Rudy Carpenter — batted out of his hands! — and runs it back for a Bears touchdown! Cal 7, ASU 0.

7:35 PM: Ah, good old enemy QB inaccuracy — our best defensive weapon. ASU must punt.

7:38 PM: Nice first-down pass to Jackson for a long gain on first down. And on the next play a flag is down. Why, it’s a personal foul face mask on Justin Tryon! What a surprise.

7:42 PM: Third down pass right off the hands of Jordan. Should’ve caught it. Now Jordan Kay has to make another fearful appearance. 41-yard kick not blocked, up, and good! Cal 10, ASU 0.

7:44 PM: Well, if you’re going to do a medical cutaway from the sideline reporter, do it now: first quarter. Not like last week, when during the UCLA game they brought out the skeleton on a third down late in the fourth quarter. Advantage FSN. Of course, we missed a holding penalty that makes it first down and 20. Disadvantage FSN. Still, your HD signal is oh so pretty. But I think your sideline reporter is not a trained medical professional.

7:46 PM: Phil: “Now tell me how MRIs work, sideline reporter. What’s the pancreas do? Is this growth on my arm something I should get checked out?”

7:48 PM: ASU forced to punt again, having done zero on offense today thus far.

7:49 PM: Phil: “Every time they cut to Dennis Erickson on the sideline, I expect to see him sipping a martini. I don’t know why I feel that way.”

7:51 PM: Big gain by Forsett on a third-down pass, ASU was offsides on the play — that’s the kind of free play we like to see. First down Bears! Nobody covered Forsett out of the backfield. Phil: “Coach Erickson slams down his martini. ‘Now look what you kids made me do!'”

7:52 PM: Nice gain by Stevens over the middle, with a Sun Devil riding on his back like he was being bucked by a bronco.

7:54 PM: Fourth and goal after a run and two incompletions, and it’s Field Goal time. Lots of missed opportunities early, and you hope they don’t come back to bite the Bears. Four trips deep into ASU territory and all we’ve got to show for it is this: Cal 13, ASU 0.

7:56 PM: First down ASU, and the first completion by Carpenter. The defense has really shut them out for almost the entire first quarter. Although they wouldn’t have shut them out in any sort of way if Jones hadn’t just dropped that deep ball in the end zone. A touchdown taken away by Cal’s very best defensive player, Sir Isaac Newton.

7:59 PM: End of First Quarter. ASU on its first good drive of the game. But it’s Cal 13, ASU 0.

8:04 PM: Touchdown Sun Devils. Nance strolls into the end zone. Cal 13, ASU 7.

8:09 PM: Nice run to the left off tackle by Forsett. Next play? Forsett into the line. That one hasn’t been working so well lately. But it’s enough for a first down.

8:13 PM: Total yardage: 183 for Cal, 47 for ASU. And yet it’s a six-point game. That’s not good.

8:14 PM: Fantastic catch by Jordan inside the 20 on 3rd and long. He stretches out his arms and snags a pass that no defender could have caught. Jordan comes out and might have aggravated his shoulder injury.

8:15 PM: Nice variety on the playcalling. End around, reverse, run off tackle, sweep pitch wide… I like it. First and goal, Bears.

8:16 PM: Longshore to Hawkins, he gets to the end zone for an apparent TD — but there’s a flag down and it’s going to be pass interference on DeSean Jackson for setting a pick in the end zone. Ouch.

8:20 PM: Longshore to Jackson, another apparent touchdown, but he may have not gotten his feet down. However, Fox’s camera angles suck and in the one angle where you see his feet, it’s impossible to tell. Warren Moon, however, lives by a higher standard, and feels that it wasn’t a TD because of some mysterious divination. Warren is wrong. Touchdown, Bears! Cal 20, ASU 7.

8:29 PM: Carpenter hit on the blitz by DeCoud, ball up in the air, picked off by Bandon Hampton. But DeCoud was offside. Well, that’s one way to pressure the QB — jump offside.

8:31 PM: Another penalty, this time PI on Syd’Quan Thompson. ASU back into Cal territory.

8:33 PM: At the risk of watching ASU score instantly, let me say I think this is the best I’ve seen Cal’s defense play all year.

8:35 PM: ASU goes for it on fourth down and gets it, but it’s nullified because ASU called timeout. Phil: “‘I wasn’t calling a timeout — I was signaling for more vermouth!'” And they get it anyway.

8:37 PM: Great hit by Hicks to stop an ASU receiver and force 4th and 1 inside the 10.

8:40 PM: ASU doesn’t have to go for it. Out of a timeout, Cal has 12 menu on the field. Free first and goal! Way to go.

8:41 PM: Phil: “So when Tedford said they concentrated on the little things this week, counting to 12 wasn’t one of them.”

8:41 PM: Nance in for the Sun Devils Touchdown. Cal 20, ASU 14. I will not praise the defense again. I will not praise the defense again. I will not praise the defense again. I will not praise the defense again.

8:47 PM: Cal goes three and out and the Sun Devils will have a chance to go ahead going into halftime. Is it me or has every single Cal game this year been a struggle? They just can’t put it together. It’s really disspiriting.

8:55 PM: On a punt, Jackson is hit as he’s catching the ball. Then he lands on the ball and the ref signals timeout. Then the ball gets kicked out and ASU recovers inside the 10. And yet the “ruling on the field” is that it was recovered by ASU? Oh my god. What a terrible, terrible bit of officiating.

8:56 PM: The reverse angle shows clearly that Jackson’s knee is down before he loses the ball. Clearly. And how is the ruling on the field that the play continued after the back judge blew the ball dead? You’ve got to be kidding me. What a sham.

9:00 PM: “The ruling on the field is that there was an inadvertent signal.” I assume this means that the whistle blew so it’s a dead ball. Wow, Dennis Erickson is mad. Ken, avert your eyes from Dennis Erickson’s lips.

9:04 PM: This is why the refs sprint off the field at the end of the game and are immediately whisked from the stadium in an unmarked van by police escort.

9:10 PM: Oh please take a knee. I really need for it to be halftime. Thank you! Halftime. Cal 20, ASU 14.

9:32 PM: And we’re back from the half. I had a peanut butter sandwich, thanks for asking.

9:34 PM: Jordan catches the ball and gives Tryon the old stiff arm to the face as he goes out of bounds. The crowd is very angry, and I understand why — but that’s legal, folks.

9:36 PM: The drive stalls across the 50 and it’s punt time already. ASU must start inside their own 10.

9:39 PM: “Call the holding!” shouts someone picked up by a crowd microphone. We agree, sir. It’s interesting, Cal seems to be pressuring the QB a bit more often than in past weeks.

9:42 PM: Guess ASU has decided to throw the ball this half. Wow. Goodbye, lead.

9:44 PM: They had Nance behind the line on 4th and 1, stopped him, and he bounced off and ran it in for the Touchdown. ASU 21, Cal 20.

9:51 PM: Nice passes and a couple of nice runs on this drive for Cal. Great comeback catch by Jordan to get near the first-down marker.

9:56 PM: This officiating crew is embarrassing. Not that they’re making calls that favor ASU, but that they’re whistling everything, they’re visibly confused… bad times.

9:58 PM: And thanks to the penalties this once-promising drive comes down to a 3rd and 15. Deep ball, way overthrown. Failure.

10:02 PM: Now Carpenter’s hitting everything. This is going to get really ugly really fast. Cal’s secondary is being picked apart.

10:05 PM: If you’re going to rush the QB, don’t let them complete passes for 30 yards at a shot. Nance is wide open out of the backfield for a huge gain.

10:07 PM: Cal’s defense stops a running back for a 7-yard loss, and on the very next play Carpenter hits a wide-open receiver for a 20-yard game. Carpenter can fire at will right now. This sure doesn’t feel like a one-point game with a quarter and 2:30 to go. This feels like an ASU blow-out. Cal has lost control completely, and they need to reassert themselves rapidly or this one will be over.

10:10 PM: 47-yard ASU field goal good. ASU 24, Cal 20.

10:14 PM: End of third quarter. ASU has scored 17 unanswered points.

10:17 PM: Jackson blows past Tryon, open for the TD, and Longshore (who has been overthrowing people all night) underthrows the pass, giving the ball to Tryon on the interception. Jackson waves his arms in frustration rather than trying to knock the ball away or tackle Tryon right away. Doom.

10:19 PM: Cal has given up on this game, I think. Mail in the third consecutive loss. It’s over. They won the first half but failed to take advantage of it, and now ASU is blowing them away. I wonder if Cal will even be good enough for the Emerald Bowl this year.

10:30 PM: Longshore intercepted again. How does 5-3 feel like, everyone?

10:32 PM: Many different Herring runs.

10:33 PM: Another third down conversion by Carpenter. Those pass rushes don’t help if you get to the QB a second too late and he’s already tossed it downfield for a completion. Horrendous defense.

10:35 PM: Third down again. Time for Carpenter to toss a first-down pass or a touchdown pass. Rulon Davis is down, now, in his first game back… not good.

10:37 PM: There’s the Carpenter TD I just told you would happen. ASU 31, Cal 20.

10:38 PM: Cal hasn’t scored a point in the second half. ASU has sscored 24 unanswered points. I’m headed to the Carribean on Friday. My apologies to those of you who have to watch the rest of this season.

10:45 PM: Like the saying goes, if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. Good night.

(Written by kencraw)

OK, I’m going to give this a try. We’ll see how it goes. I did a test run today for the Boise St. vs. Fresno St. game and technologically speaking it went well. I’m going to have to improve my play-by-play announcing but I think I got into a rythym by the end. I’m hopeful that when I know the players it’ll go a lot better.

In any case, here’s how it’ll work. For those who just want to listen, click on the below object (on the play button once the broadcast has started):

UPDATE: Show has been cancelled due to technical difficulties.

You’ll be able to listen to it from there. For those who want to call in during the comercials, you have two options. You can call a long-distance phone number (724-444-7444) and then when prompted enter the show code (64411). It’ll then ask you for a pin which you’ll have if you’ve registered with TalkShoe (it’ll make it easier for me to recognize you if you call in if you do) or you can bypass that and come in anonymously. The other option is to download the TalkShoe software and use a headset hooked up to your computer to connect in. Either way is fine by me.

(Written by kencraw)

After last weeks performance against UCLA I’m feeling a little gun-shy. I mean, with the OSU game I predicted a victory, heck even a big victory, but I did have the appropriate caveats in there to not feel horrible about the end result. I also did that preview with the assumption that Longshore was back and healthy. As a result, I felt pretty comfortable with the mis-call. Last week however, I couldn’t have been more wrong:

The lone area of risk for the Bears is whether their running game can get the job done against the supposedly stout UCLA run defense. While I’m not as confident about this as I am about the above topics, I’m still not worried much about it. I’ve been through too many “this run defense is going to be tough” games where Forsett put up his usually terrific numbers to be concerned about it. Forsett is on track for a 1500 yard season plus whatever he could do in a bowl game. Forsett had 60 yards on 11 carries last year in relief of Lynch in the UCLA game, against what is basically the same defensive personel.

So call me Mr. Confident: 35-13 (revised up Cal offensive score from 24-13 beginning of season prediction)

Can I say “OUCH” one more time?

So what are we to make of the Bears? Are they just a team and a coaching staff that’s been out of sync for two games because of quarterback issues? I mean, it seems to me that Tedford’s play-calling issues could easily be attributed to him trying to game plan around Longshore’s injury. Also, Longshore hadn’t taken many snaps in practice in the last 3 weeks, perhaps that affected things as well. Whatever the case, there is an argument that could be made that once everyone is back to full strength the players and coaches will get back to their winning ways.

Or will they?

Perhaps Oregon laid an egg against a mediocre Cal team. I mean, they laid an egg against Cal the preceeding season. Maybe the difference was that a laid egg made the game close instead of a blowout in Oregon’s favor. Outside of Oregon, there’s not much on the Cal resume that is all that impressive. Tennessee is the lone candidate for impressive, but they’re not ranked anymore and have lost to just about everyone besides Georgia that is any good. The other teams on Cal’s schedule have been really stinking it up.

So I don’t know what to think. It seems to me that this offense should be every bit as good as last year. They’ve got too many weapons and too many of the same players, a couple of linemen being the exception, not to be. So it seems to me that they’ve got the potential to be as great as everyone has assumed they were before the last two losses. However, people had forgotten just how young and inexperienced our defense is. When you lose Mebane, Bishop and Hughes, it’s going to make a dent. Let’s not forget that all three of our linebackers, despite being very talented, are still first year starters. 3 of our defensive linemen are also new to the starting lineup and a couple are even new to significant playing time as well.

So it seems to me that this year’s team can only be counted on to score consistently, not shut them down defensively. If their is a hitch in the offense, like losing your quarterback, the team is very vulnerable. My perspective is that I think/hope the offense will get back on track tomorrow and the bend but don’t break defense will do well enough to give our offense plenty of opportunities to win, even win handily.

My prediction: 31-17 Bears… and I hope the Bears don’t make me look foolish.

(Written by kencraw)

My preview article for the Arizona State game is up at Rivals: Crunching the Numbers: Cal vs. ASU.

This one looks to be subscription free as well.

(Written by kencraw)

Jason has been doing a great job with the live-blogging on game day (for the away games, we’re all in the stands for home games) and he has seemlessly integrated my comments when I’ve participated. There’s a good chance we’ll stick with that plan moving forward, both because what I’m proposing may not interest people and because Jason may decide to continue doing that even if my proposal flies. (I haven’t discussed this with him yet.)

But I’m mulling over the idea of doing something different. After going on The BruinShow last week I was intrigued about doing something similar. My thought was that a midweek show would be pretty difficult and would require coordination beyond what I’m up for this season. However, I’ve also had a tick in the back of my mind that I might have a talent for being a radio announcer despite the fact that I don’t necessarily have a good radio voice (although I do have a radio face if you know what that is 🙂 ).

So here’s what I’m proposing:

I’ll open up a Live-Podcast session like TalkShoe or NowLive about a half-hour before gametime on Saturday for people to listen to on their computers. I’ll call the game, perhaps with Jason or Phil or my brother or one of the guys at California Golden blogs as a co-host (for those listed, let me know if you’d be interested) but have a feature that Starkey can’t give you: comericial breaks and halftime will be a call-in show (and perhaps there will be moments to take calls during the game depending on how things play out). With services like TalkShoe or NowLive you can either make a phone call to get on the system or connect from your computer with a headset.

There are a few things I’m worried about (beyond that I may suck at announcing):

• I’ll be new to using services like TalkShoe or NowLive so may have technical difficulties
• I’m not sure if I can “mute” those calling in so that I can have an orderly call-in show
• I’m sure that I’ll be coming through to you delayed by at least 10 seconds

For those with a DVR, the last one should be no big deal because you can just watch the game a little bit delayed so that I’m synced up with the game.

In any case, before I invested a bunch of time on this, I wanted to see what the interest might be in this. Would anyone listen and/or participate?