There’s a lot of different ways to look at the WSU game.

The first is our recent history with them. There’s no team in the Pac-12 that the Bears have more dominated than WSU. Tedford lost to them in his first year (when WSU was just coming off a Rose Bowl appearance), but after a two year hiatus in 2003 and 2004 (remember when we only played 8 conference games and 11 games over all, and had to skip one team every year?), the Bears haven’t lost since.

And the reason is simple… Tedford’s run-first, expose our personnel advantages strategy always worked against a less talented WSU team. There’s been no one team except WSU that Cal has held a significant talent advantage each of the last 7 years. Add to that, that WSU wasn’t doing anything truly creative or unique to overcome that talent gap, and the Bears were perfectly positioned for their current run.

As proof of this, when one looks back at the scores, there are a lot that are closer looking than they felt at the time. 2008 at home: 20-17. 2010 on the road: 20-13. 2005 at home: 42-38. The reason? Tedford played it conservative and got just what he needed against an inferior team.

A very different way to look at this game is to look at the last time we faced their new head coach, Mike Leach… the 2004 Holiday bowl. Texas Tech’s air-raid offense gave the #5 ranked Bears fits and they won 45-31.

There are of course a number of mitigating factors as to why that game is not alone the best indicator of what is going to happen this evening. For one, our defense is an entirely different style. Gone is Bob Gregory’s ‘Bend But Don’t Break’ and in is Pendergast’s much more aggressive scheme. Another is that Leach’s 2004 team was one of his best, with players perfectly tuned to his offensive strategy. It will be years before Leach can recruit and develop the players needed to get his scheme back to the level it was in 2004.

Yet another way to look at this game is team trajectories and the motivation factor. Cal finally rebounded from a soul-crushing 3 game losing streak by laying the wood to UCLA. WSU started 2-1 but has themselves just had a soul-crushing 3 game losing streak, complete with a couple of close-but-no-cigar loses.

So, does Cal make it a 4-loss streak for the Wougs? Or said a different way, does Cal make it a 8-season winning streak? On the other side, does WSU seize the opportunity to do what Cal did to UCLA and right the ship? Does Cal have a let-up game after the strong effort against UCLA? Or was the UCLA game a season-turning game and the Bears play with the sort of precision and intensity that marked the UCLA game?

My gut says that it is somewhere in between all of that. The Bears won’t have everything go quite as well as it did against UCLA, but it will be a much stronger effort than ASU. WSU will play with heart, seeing this as a winnable game, to get them back on track. Their new offense will deliver a couple blows that past WSU teams wouldn’t have, but Tedford will work the talent advantage like he always does and the Bears will come out on top with a score a bit closer than the game would have had you think.

Bears win: 31-24

I’m still a firm believer in the talent on this Cal Bear team. Other than Oregon, I don’t think there’s a team left on Cal’s schedule that Cal can not beat, talent wise. I even think that Tedford’s and Pendergast’s offensive and defensive strategies, if executed properly, could win all of those games.

Yet at the same time, only a fool could look at the last couple games and say that the team execution is there to deliver on those things, other than perhaps against WSU and Utah.

Execution is one of those very fickle things. The best teams have it in 11 out of 12 games and hope to survive that one game where they don’t. The teams in the middle have it some of the time and other times don’t. Some teams have it more often than not but don’t have the talent. Then there are the teams on the bottom that struggle to find it every game, but usually a couple times a year they put it together.

So when one puts that all together, I firmly stand my prediction from earlier in the week that the Bears are going to win a game or two that they shouldn’t. This team is too talented and has too many of the pieces to be as bad as they are, and they’ll rise to the occasion at some point.

But is it tonight?

My gut says no. My gut says that the Bears don’t have it in them. This UCLA team is not the UCLA team of the past that came up to Berkeley and was outclassed on a semi-annual basis for the last 15 years. They’ve got unfinished business, to prove that their rebound is real and to make a run at the Pac-12 south title, for real this time (unlike last year’s debacle). My gut says they’ll be intimidating the Bears from the first kick to the last whistle.

Bears lose big: 13-30

A friend of mine at work and I have played around with the idea of a software program that identifies games to bet on where the odds are poorly set. We both believe that buried in the statistics are the keys to make money.

However, we disagree as to what part of the season is most ripe for making money. He thinks there is lots of money to be made in the first couple weeks of the season. People put way too much emphasis on things like returning “starters” when what really matters is playing time. (He’s an Oregon fan and has seen how their aggressive player rotations have netted players with lots of experience but who aren’t officially “starters”.)

While I see what he’s after, I think there are just too many unknowns in the first couple weeks. Instead I think the best time is late September and early October. By this point in the season there is enough real data to start making meaningful conclusions. At the same time, teams have had such VASTLY different schedules, the ability to make the right conclusions from the data requires a lot of work to adjust the statistics based on the competition.

Which brings us to Arizona State…

What would Cal’s record be right now if they had played the teams that Arizona State has played? Of course the Bears would have beat Northern Arizona, but frankly the other 3 are a bit harder to judge. Cal probably beats Illinois too, as they look pretty bad. Missouri is the tough one. They could be pretty dang good and be similar to Cal and having played a tough schedule. But since ASU lost to them, let’s assume the Bears do too. That leaves only Utah, which I won’t comment on yet.

Point being, it’s not unreasonable to expect the Bears to have fared similarly, at least record wise as ASU with their schedule.

Flipping the table, how would ASU have done against Cal’s schedule? This has a fair amount of question marks in it too. Would they have beat Nevada? Well, there’s a good reason to believe they might have. At the same time, Nevada is good enough that it’s possible they could have lost. What about Ohio State and USC? Frankly, I have every reason to believe they would have lost those games just as Cal did.

The point of this exercise, is that it is not out of the question to think that had ASU faced Cal’s schedule they’d be 1-3 as well and if Cal had faced ASU’s schedule they’d be 3-1. That would of course include Utah, which is a harder team to judge at this point, but they most definitely look very beatable right now.

Vegas, by the way, is unsure of itself. Most of the lines started with ASU as a 1-2 point favorite and it switched to being a Cal 2-2.5 point favorite.

All of the above was a long way of saying the basic statistics point to this game being even, based on the limited and very divergent information we have.

That’s when it really is all about one’s opinion.

My opinion is that the Bears are a team with a lot of potential and their 1-3 record is the result of playing below potential against Nevada, the Ohio State game having been a tough one with some breaks not going the Bears way and USC, well, they’ve just got our number.

I think they’ve got enough potential that if they play up to that potential against ASU, I think they win it somewhat easily. ASU has looked great against pretty weak opposition, but I think they’re a team with lots of weaknesses to exploit. They won’t dominate in the trenches like they have in all of their 3 victories and their skill players aren’t so good that they will find a way to be successful without that sort of domination. Missouri demonstrated that. ASU became mistake prone and sputtered when they no longer had the talent advantage.

Despite that, I’m not sitting on a lot of confidence in my opinion, because I’m not so sure the Bears will play up to their potential today.

Part of me thinks this could be a VERY big breakout game for the Bears. They know they’re much better than their record and their going to go out there and avenge the loss to Nevada and rise above the last two tough games. They’ve got something to prove and frankly, when a Tedford team has felt that way against a beatable foe, the team has generally rose to the occasion. (It’s when the Bears are true underdogs that they seem not to rise to the occasion.) Add that to being at home and wanting to get back on the right track and the Bears could play the way we wanted them to versus Nevada. Call this re-opening Memorial Stadium – take II.

At the same time, I’m a bit worried that the USC loss took something out of this team. That loss was clearly a tough blow for the team and it would not entirely surprise me if that game was the one that will doom the season and the Bears will never come out sharp and confident again.

So which is it?

Call me an optimist: Bears 38, ASU 24

Here are my thoughts on our remaining opponents and our chances against them:

Arizona State:

Arizona State has been getting a lot of hype for their turn-around and generally with good reason. However, I think it’s been a little TOO glowing. Who have they beat? 2-2 Illinois who have “epic” wins over Western Michigan and Charleston Southern, 2-2 Utah who actually has a somewhat interesting nail-biter win over BYU and Northern Arizona. Their loss was to Missouri who’s had a rough schedule and is 2-2 themselves.

This ASU team reminds me a bit of when Erickson took over and went off on a good run. They had an easy early season giving them too much hype. With the game in Berkeley, I think the Bears have a good shot at this:

Outcome: Marginal win

UCLA:

Which UCLA is the “real” UCLA? The team that beat Nebraska or the team that lost to Oregon State? It’s worth noting that Nebraska hasn’t won a meaningful game yet, with wins over Southern Miss, Arkansas State and Idaho State. OK, that’s not the worst lineup, but it’s also not great and it’s hard to tell how much of Nebraska’s 16 ranking was due to their reputation or their play. In a related fashion, how good is Oregon State? More on that later, but in summary, with only two games so far, both against teams with question marks, it’s hard to tell.

Nevertheless, I think UCLA is the #2 team in a weak South division and will provide a formidable challenge. The Bears have had their number in Berkeley for too long to ignore across multiple coaches.

Outcome: Marginal win

Washington State:

I still believe WSU is on the right track as a program, but it’s clear that Leach’s system won’t take hold over night. Furthermore, they’re VERY susceptible to the comeback as they have NO way to run down the clock (and seem to refuse to try) and their defense is easily beat for big gains. The loss to Colorado last night was embarrassing and will be a real confidence hit for them, particularly considering they’re going to lose the next two, to Oregon and Oregon State before facing Cal.

Outcome: Likely win

Stanford:

It’s hard not to look at the back-to-back USC games and assume this is a loss. And while it may very well be, let’s remember that Stanford has USC’s number and Cal clearly doesn’t. Let’s also remember that USC had huge injury problems against Stanford which were resolved against Cal. Let’s remember who played at home and who played at the Coliseum. Let’s remember the outcome of last year’s USC games and how the Bears played Stanford tight anyway. Plus, this year’s Big Game is in Berkeley.

As for Stanford on their own merits, they started off shaky against a worse-than-Nevada San Jose State, and have improved dramatically since. Yet other than the USC game, they haven’t really been tested. We’ll know more after their next 3 games against UW, Arizona and Notre Dame. It doesn’t hurt that they’ll be finishing a 3 of 4 on the road stretch when they come to Berkeley. All that said, hard to ignore the USC games.

Outcome: Marginal loss

Utah:

If this game was in Berkeley, it would be an easy call. The question is how the Bears play on the road at altitude. Utah looked terrible last night against Arizona State and frankly other than BYU haven’t played well. On paper I think the Bears win this one.

Outcome: Marginal win

Washington:

Even more so than Oregon State, not a lot on their resume to judge them by, either good or bad. A middling win over San Diego State, blown out by LSU and an easy win over Portland State. What can you take from that? Not much really. The game is in Berkeley and the Bears have played UW close here. Yet we’ve lost 3 in a row to the Huskies. The Friday night game helps the home team as well.

Outcome: Toss-up

Oregon:

Oregon looks incredible. By far the best team in the conference. Their dominance of an over-ranked Arizona last night was impressive. Particularly notable is the defense, which will stifle the Bears. I’d love to believe we could repeat our 2010 performance, but there’s no way.

Outcome: Assured loss

Oregon State:

Riley has the Beavers hungry again, that’s for sure. Yet they’ve only played two games both against teams that were thought highly of yet were untested. But no matter what level of spin you want to put around it, Oregon State is undefeated and their defense looks reminiscent of the ones that stifled Cal over the last decade. With the game on the road, hard to be too optimistic.

Outcome: Somewhere between marginal and likely loss

Summary:

What’s notable is that there is only one likely win on my list. So for the pessimistic amongst us, this season could go really, really, poorly. However, there’s plenty of marginal wins, 3, that put the Bears at 5 wins overall if they win all the ones I think they’re supposed to. Win the toss-up against UW and the Bears are bowl eligible and pull the upset over Stanford and the Bears are 7-5.

Again, it’s all about what your perspective is. Are you just looking at this season and the trending? If so, then there is reason to be optimistic. But if you’re looking for a team that truly gives us something to be happy about, that shows Cal is pushing back into the upper echelons of the conference, then you’re guaranteed to be disappointed.

I will say this: With so many winnable games coming up, the Bears better play well and win them, or Tedford won’t be here in January. They also better get to 6 wins before the Oregon game if they truly hope to be bowl eligible. I’d hate to be headed to Corvallis needing a win.

It’s no secret that the Bears have been a disappointment so far this season. As such, the poll on the right side reflects just how lacking we all are in optimism for today’s game.

You won’t find me blowing any smoke up you saying that the Bears are better than they’ve looked nor that they have a good shot at beating Ohio State. I don’t think the Bears have a good shot at it.

However, what I will say is that I think we’re over-estimating how good Ohio State is. Their performance to date has not been all that strong. They haven’t been tested at all. If there’s a reason for a glimmer of hope, this is it.

The problem is that their offensive style is exactly what Cal’s defense has proven most susceptible to. To make matters worse, it appears that Urban Meyer isn’t going to do a massive overhaul of the scheme of Ohio State, so the hopes we had of a team that was still working out the kinks turns out to be unfounded. It also means the scheme doesn’t change to one the Bears have a better shot at defending.

If those things had broke Cal’s way, considering how untested Ohio State is, I might be willing to consider the upset. But they didn’t and so I’m not:

Ohio State: 31, Cal: 17

Trying to save myself time by writing this post once and saving it for future years

The Bears are playing Southern [state] today, in the [week] of the season. It’s interesting how these games never seem to be on the first week of the season.

There’s not much to say about this game. The Bears should win easily. And unless the game is close, we won’t be able to tell anything about whether the Bears have improved over their disappointing performance over [non-conference team we shouldn’t have lost to] the previous week.

I expect to see a heavy dose of [running back name] today. I also expect to see a very vanilla offensive and defense today. I also expect we’ll get to see a lot of backups playing in the second half. This might be the [only or last] time this year we get to see [backup quarterback] playing. That might be the most interesting thing we’ll see today.

Final score: Cal: [random number between 50 and 59], Southern : [random number between 6 and 17]

(Side note: Sorry that my nice plan for a post-a-day of the 4-part series didn’t quite go as planned. My plan was Monday-Thursday on that and Friday would be for previews and the such. Unfortunately, both of the first two posts took a LONG time to put together, researching all the facts that I wanted to make sure were accurate and finding all the links I wanted.)

There’s two very different ways to look at the Nevada game:

The Old Blues are quaking in their boots right now. We got “destroyed” by the Pistol in 2010 and it was a blowout. Nevada has a QB who lit up the 2nd half of last year and if UCLA’s game last year showed anything, we haven’t figured out how to prepare for the pistol yet.

The less pessimistic know just how special the 2010 Nevada team was. Colin Kaepernick is currently the #2 QB at the 49ers and was the core of that team. Yeah, the new guy looks more than capable, but he’s no Kaepernick. That 2010 team went 11-1, beating unbeaten Boise State and upsetting their national title/BCS hopes in the process. All around, it was a special year for Nevada. 2011, was a return to what is normally considered good for Nevada, 7-5, with wins over Fresno State (much tighter than Cal’s win over them) and Hawaii and losses at the end of the season to Louisiana Tech and Utah State.

What’s also worth remembering was that the 2010 game was a lot closer than people remember it. Cal had pulled to within 3 points midway through the 3rd quarter and had all the momentum when Riley threw a really stupid interception for a touchdown. Cal still managed to kick a field goal later in the 3rd quarter to make it a 7 point game, but as the altitude wore on the defense Nevada put the game away midway through the 4th quarter and added a late TD to make the score worse than it was.

I feel confident that if that game was played at sea level, the Bears had better than a 50/50 shot at winning, even with a home Nevada crowd. Much better than that in Berkeley. Heck, even just moving the game to Saturday to give the Bears an extra night to acclimate might have made the difference.

Thus, I predict 3 things for this afternoon’s game:

1. Cal’s defense will stifle Nevada. Any thoughts that Cal hasn’t figured out the Pistol will permanently be put to rest as Pendergast has had all off-season to clean up any remnants of problems.
2. Cal’s offense will move the ball with easy. Heck, even in 2010 they put up 31 points, and that was with Nevada holding on to the ball a lot.
3. The magnitude of the potential blowout will be covered up by a heavy dose of Isi and CJ. They’re going to wear down Nevada much like they did against WSU and OSU last season.

Final score: Cal 38, Nevada 16

One of the things that has made it easy to be a Bear fan over the years (I’m becoming a borderline Old Blue) is that low expectations coupled with winning a fair number of games at home made things liveable. But it was the occasional great game, the upset that we could all hang our collective hats on, that made the liveable, not just enjoyable, but addicting.

To some degree 2004-2006 “ruined” that with high expectations. There was hardly a game that could legitimately be called an upset in recent years. We were expected to be contenders in all games. While there were games we were worried about losing, we had reasons to think that every game on the schedule was not only winnable, but it would be a stretch to call that win an upset. It was all downside and very little upside.

Last year changed that by significantly lowing expectations for 2011. We all just wanted to get back to bowl eligibility. 7-5 would be a VERY positive sign. We all wrote off three games in our minds: Oregon, Stanford, USC. They were loses. It would be a BIG upset to win any of them.

It’s time for that big upset.

I need it. My Bear-fandom is starting to feel stagnant and predictable. I need that feeling like 2000 UCLA and 2003 USC (I still don’t forgive myself for missing that one in person). The last time we had something resembling that was the 2009 Big Game. Remember how great that was? Remember the glow afterwards?

It’s time to have that feeling again. USC has had our number since 2005 (they won in 2004, but it’s hard to look at that game as if USC dominated). We’ve gotten roughed up more times than I care to remember. Last year, just when it looked like there was hope, that the Carroll Juggernaut was broken, that USC was vulnerable, we got destroyed in one of the worst loses in recent memory. It was terrifyingly bad to watch on TV.

Really, I can’t come up with many reasons why the Bears should win this year. Oregon removed any doubt that our offense is going to be stellar. It’s pretty clear the offense is going to have inconsistency problems for a while. It also put the nail in the coffin that the defense, particularly the secondary, will return to last year’s form. If there was any hope left, it faded with Marc Anthony’s separated shoulder that has him doubtful for tomorrow’s game.

As for USC, their offense is beginning to gel despite inconsistency to date. The bye gives them time to rest and time to solve the problems they have on defense. Considering the team is loaded with talent, solving those problems is easier for them than others.

But you know what, inconsistent offenses occasionally have games that are stellar (what we need from the Bears tomorrow night) and some games that are horrific (what we need from USC). Defenses with lots of young talent occasionally have games where everything just clicks (what we need from the Bears) and games where they look horribly out of position (what we need from USC). There’s no reason we SHOULD win the game, but there’s no doubt we COULD see the big upset.

It’s time Bears. This borderline Old Blue would be thrilled to have my Old Blue experience “ruined” again and to see the team return to being a perennial Rose Bowl contender (and for the love of all that is Holy, an eventual trip to the Rose Bowl before I die). But for right now, all I want is that upset that keeps the Old Blues coming back game after game, year after year. It’s time.

GO BEARS!

OK, I know we’re all still in somewhat smarting from last year’s loss to Oregon. I know most of us have blocked the 2009 game out of our minds (but I’ll bring back the pain with a looking back posts in the next couple days). But it’s important to remember that this has been one VERY balanced series since the Tedford took over the helm in Berkeley:

2002: Didn’t play
2003: Cal loses a tough one in Eugene, 17-21, when some prankster… er… “computer glitch” turned off the lights in the stadium giving Oregon a 2nd halftime to regroup just as the Bears were sticking it to the Ducks.
2004: Cal wins 28-27 in an otherwise equal game that came down to a missed extra point by Oregon (and Oregon’s extra emphasis on 2-point conversions in future years had absolutely NOTHING to do with this game) and the inability of a wide open tight end to catch a perfectly thrown ball on 4th down that would have put the Ducks in easy field goal range at the end of the game.
2005: Cal loses 20-27 in the first overtime after a hurried field goal attempt by the Bears falls inches short at the end of regulation and would have won the game for the Bears.
2006: Cal lays the wood to Oregon, 45-24 in the one lopsided Cal victory where mistakes by Dennis Dixon doomed the Ducks from their first possession
2007: Cal comes away with their one road victory, 31-24, where Oregon was in position to tie in the final seconds of the game but an jarring Ezeff hit on the wide receiver forces a fumble through the endzone for a Cal touchback.
2008: Cal continues their winning streak to 3 games, winning 26-16 in a defensive struggle most memorable for the Cal turfs inability to drain water in a downpour (you think a team named the Ducks would do better on a flooded field).
2009: Cal gives up their one blowout loss 3-42, in a game where Cal recovered a fumble on the initial kickoff and never scored again in what might just be the most painful game I’ve personally witnessed.
2010: Cal loses for the first time at home in this series, a tight 13-15 loss where Oregon’s preemptive 2-point conversions (see earlier note) and Cal’s successive failed attempt to make up the difference was the difference in scoring, although a missed late field goal by Tavecchio will not soon be forgotten by Bear fans despite the fact that Oregon drove inside the Cal redzone in their last drive to run out the clock.

For those counting, the Bears and Ducks are 4-4 against each other, with one blowout to each team’s name and one road victory to each team’s name. Both times the road team won, they were the higher ranked team. However both times there was a blowout, it was the lower ranked team doing the damage. Of course both blowouts were in favor of the home team.

What does all this mean for Thursday night? NOTHING! ABSOLUTELY NOTHING! Really… what could those teams possibly have to do with this year’s matchup? Nevertheless we all know that it does matter, right? Just like some teams play the Bears well (Washington, Oregon State), the Bears, with one exception, have played Oregon tough even when they were expected to lose.

Food for thought.

Some random thoughts I had late this week and this morning:

• This is the first game the Bears will be playing on artificial turf. Candlestick was grass. Colorado was grass (ruining the perfect north-south split of who has turf/grass in the conference). AT&T is grass (and dirt). So despite the fact that we practice on turf, even on our home away from home practice facility, the Bears get their first chance to show off their speed today. Not sure if this matters much, but worth mentioning.
• One thing that has been clear watching the matchups of the last few years is how much the story was the UW defense. Sark/Holt has had the Bears number and has shut down the Cal offense. Once that resulted in a defensive struggle (last year) and once it resulted in a tuckered out defense that couldn’t keep up with an on-fire Locker. This is probably the key to the game. If the Cal offense is able to score points, expect the Bears to win.
• The other big question is how good is the Cal defense. Against our weaker opponents, it looked like last year’s defense. At altitude against a Pac-12 foe, it looked pretty exposed in the passing game. Was that just the lack of speed while gasping for air? How much did that have to do with the lack of pressure the D-Line was able to get on the QB? Was it just a bad game? I think it’s hard to tell. It’s possible this game is a shootout. It’s possible this game is a defensive struggle.
• The more I think about it, the more I like that this is an early season, early afternoon game in Husky stadium. We’ve gotten the shaft the last few years, playing UW after the Big Game and late in the season. It was our own doing, wanting that bye mid-season, but it still was bad news. The reports are that Husky stadium will not be full, that’ll help as well. The Bears will do well to score early and keep the crowd out of it.

So where does that leave us? The more I think about it, the more I think the Bears are in position to really stick it to UW. They’re hungry for a big win. All the intangibles are on the Cal side. In fact, I’ve got to temper my optimism when predicting a final score, because I don’t want to look foolish.

Final score: Bears 31 – UW 24

Just some various things from around the web:

• CRITICAL UNIFORM UPDATE: This is for co-blogger Jason, who’s always interested in uniform stuff: The Bears will be wearing blue-on-blue (see the bottom of the article). It’s my favorite combo.
• Field layout at AT&T: From the same article linked above:
  

  The Bears will be on the sideline that runs along the third base line. The biggest change is the fact that there is room for teams to be on opposite sidelines. … The football configuration was moved eight feet toward the third base line, giving more room to the sideline in right field. It also made it safer for players to run through the end zone that is in left field because the left side of the end zone now leads to the open part of the fence where it meets the third base grandstand.

  Is it just me or is that a little confusing? If the two sidelines are the 3rd base side and the right field side, both teams were on the right field side in the Emerald Bowl. How can moving the field towards the shorter 3rd base side give it more room? Perhaps they mean just the opposite?

• Pay for play cost: The Blue Hose will receive $400K to come play the Bears. Considering that they’re coming all the way across the country it doesn’t seem like all that much in today’s era of nearly million dollar pay-for-play payouts. Still a lot of money compared to what was paid 10 years ago.
• West of Pittsburgh: From the same (2nd) article, the farthest west Presbyterian has ever played is against Pittsburgh. I’d say ‘they’re not in Kansas anymore’, but Kansas would be farther from home than they’ve ever played before too. To put this in perspective, every time Cal plays UW, WSU, ASU or UA, i.e. twice a year, they travel further from home than Presbyterian ever has. WOW!

In my pre-season predictions, I predicted Cal would lose the Colorado game 24-27. I mostly referenced that the Bears have a hard time on the road, particularly in non-conference games. While I didn’t spend a lot of time on it, I also felt that Colorado would be significantly improved over the team that lost in Berkeley. Heck, last year that was their worst game, so even last year’s Colorado team was better than the one that lost in Berkeley. They did beat Georgia last year after all.

However, another telling game is Hawaii. Last year Colorado handled Hawaii fairly easily, 31-13, at home. This year in their trip to Oahu, Colorado lost pretty big 17-34. Now, one possible explanation is the whole ‘Colorado sucks on the road’ factor. But to me, that just doesn’t seem like enough to justify that backwards step, particularly to the degree it happened.

Add to that, the particular problems they saw. The offensive line troubles which manifested itself in only 17 yards of rushing and 7 sacks on Tyler Hansen was quite troubling for Buff fans. Their inability to stop the running game of Hawaii, particularly their QB who ran for 91 yards was similarly troubling.

So, I just don’t see it yet for Colorado. I think the team is getting better, but not that much better. Their project is closer to WSU’s, i.e. a multi-year program overhaul, than UW’s, something that results in real meaningful changes the first year.

On the other side, as we all saw last Saturday, the Bears are ready to play even better than they did last year. Maynard is a definite improvement at quarterback (and by the way, that was quite clear after re-watching last years Nevada and Colorado games, back when Riley was healthy and supposedly at his best). Since he adds the scrambling QB factor that hurt Colorado last week, it’s even more promising. The defense looks to be every bit as good as last year and will be giving Colorado’s offensive line fits all day.

So the only question in my mind is the external factors: the altitude, the home-field for Colorado, the non-conference road game for Cal, Colorado’s desire for revenge. And the more I think about it, and perhaps it’s just the pre-game glow, I just don’t think that the differences in talent and coaching can be over-powered by these factors.

People seem to forget that our three examples of losing on the road were to fairly good teams. 2006 Tennessee was a 9 win team. They were much better than the team Oregon saw a year or two ago. 2008 Maryland was one of their better teams as well, beating #20 Clemson, #21 Wake Forest and #17 North Carolina. We were ranked 23 when we lost to them. Last year’s Nevada team was a 12 win team, beating Boise St to end their national title hopes on the same field they beat Cal.

Are we really going to compare Colorado to those teams? Maybe one could make an argument for Maryland being of the same quality, but I think even that’s a stretch. And even is one is willing to make that stretch, it’s not even close with the other two, and one game does not a trend make.

So that’s what we’re left with. The intangibles just don’t seem to be enough to overcome teams in very different places.

Bears win: 31-17

It’s time for my annual act in futility of doing game-by-game predictions. Here are last year’s predictions. Other than missing the Nevada game (I seem to have a soft spot in my crystal ball in regards to non-conference road games), I was perfect, at least as far as the winner was concerned, until the Oregon game, when the wheels fell off the prediction bus and cracked my crystal ball. Frankly I underestimated how good Oregon would be last year (remember, they were short Masoli and nobody knew how good Thomas was going to be). The same goes for Stanford who I thought would stink without Gerhardt. And we just won’t mention The Game That Should Not Be Named to end the season.

Here goes my shot at this year:

Fresno State @ Cal => 13-24: I was pretty nervous about this game when the schedule first came out, and while I still feel there’s a lot of risk here, my confidence level is growing. Fresno State is not the team they were a decade ago. Although I think the neutral site will work to FSU’s advantage, I think Cal’s defense will be too much for the Bulldogs and Cal’s offense will get just enough done to win without there being too much doubt.

Cal @ Colorado => 24-27: As indicated above, my crystal ball stinks when it comes to non-conference road games. Therefore, as much as I’d like to believe we’re going to win this game, I mean, we CRUSHED them last year, I think their new head coach, playing at altitude and buffaloes desire to prove that they belong in the new Pac-12 will have Cal fans boiling over when we lose this one in as frustrating fashion as @Maryland and @Nevada.

Presbyterian @ Cal => 3-52: OK, there’s not much to doubt here and I can’t even think of a good/tasteful joke as a Catholic to relate how this historically protestant school will lose… so I’ll just leave it as “Cal wins”.

Cal @ Washington => 27-17: You can call me a Washington naysayer because I just don’t see anything in them that scares me. They *barely* beat us last year and we were a crippled shell of a team on offense. Yeah, yeah, I know they beat a supposedly good Nebraska team in the bowl game, but that was a letdown game if I’ve ever seen one. Yes, I also remember they’ve beat us both times that we’ve played them since Sark took over, but the 2009 game was a case of a letdown game for Cal in UW’s AND Locker’s best game of the season. This year the game is early, they’re short Locker and I think Cal comes out strong and wins this one.

Cal @ Oregon => 17-42: There’s a part of me that would like to believe that Cal can put together another defensive performance like last year. There’s a part of me that thinks Oregon is over-rated this year. There’s a part of me that thinks Cal’s revamped offense will get it done. But after that part of me is done talking to the Easter Bunny, I come back to reality. This one is going to be ugly and I only hope it doesn’t kill our chances for the following week.

USC @ Cal => 24-17: How is a Thursday night game at AT&T against a not-bowl eligible USC going to go? Your guess is as good as mine. USC will have had a bye week, so they won’t be coming into this on 4-days practice (sadly for us). Cal will have had an odd full week, playing the 2nd of back-to-back Thursday night games. Additionally, the sheep-skins should be undefeated at that point, with the teams on the schedule to that point being either over-rated or weak. I’m going to go with the pessimist in me and say the Bears lose this one in what will have a defensive struggle feel to it.

Utah @ Cal => 20-31: If Ted Miller has us winning this game in his best and worst case scenarios for both Utah and Cal, that’s good enough for me. Seriously though, I think Cal will be hungry after two tough losses to get back on track and they’ll be in no mood to let the new kid on the block push them around. The two extra days of practice won’t hurt either. Utah should be showing the signs of how a Pac-12 conference will wear on you and will have just come back from an oddly schedule cross-country non-conference game at Pittsburgh. Finally, I’m sure the bowl loss in 2009 will keep the older Bears on the intense side, not wanting a repeat of that debacle.

Cal @ UCLA => 42-21: Can you believe that Herb Herbstreet picked UCLA to win the Pac-12 South (minus USC)? Neither can I. Cal has owned this series ever since 2008 and Neuheisel hasn’t done anything to get UCLA back on track and I don’t see anything that would make me think this is his year for anything other than collecting an unemployment check. Bears win this one easily, particularly if UCLA can’t win some of their push games leading up to the Cal game (I could see them being as good as 3-4 and as bad as 1-6).

WSU @ Cal => 17-27: If you’ve been counting, the Bears will be 5-3 coming into this game. They’ll be very hungry for that 6th win this year. At the same time, WSU will be just as hungry and still be hoping to reach bowl eligibility having started out 3-0 but having lost the last 5. Needing to win 3 of their last 4 against Cal, ASU, Utah and UW (something they’ll believe they can do), they’ll come to play. Nevertheless hunger can only make up for so much of a talent differential and while this one will start close, Cal will win this one going away.

Oregon State @ Cal => 13-31: Oregon State’s stock has been plummeting faster this summer than my stock options in HP and I think for good reason (sadly, on both counts). Riley has made miracles happen in Corvalis, but last year he ran out of magic. Things look even more dire this year with injuries galore over the off-season. The Bears are sick of losing to this team (yes, it has been since 2006) and I think with bowl eligibility out of the way, the Bears play loose and fast in this one. Buy your tickets now: this will be the most cathartic win of the season.

Cal @ Stanford => 24-34: It pains me to say anything other than the Bears will bring back the Ax in 2011, but despite the Bears feeling much better about themselves at 7-3 at this point, I think the former-Harbaughs will still win this one. Sorry Bears.

Cal @ ASU => 28-31: This might be the hardest game of the season to predict. It’s after the rivalry game for both teams. Being a ASU naysayer, ASU will be long out of Pac-12 south contention by this point. The Bears generally have had ASU’s number, but that’s been a lot more iffy when the game is in the desert. ASU should already be bowl eligible, but Erickson might be playing for his job. Seeing as how I think I might have been a bit too optimistic, having the Bears win at UW, and beating both Utah and Oregon State, I’ll even things out by having a loss here.

That puts our final record at 7-5, which feels about right to me. But at the same time, I only see 3 games where the Bears are pretty likely to lose: Oregon, Stanford and USC. If this team was 9-3, it wouldn’t shock me. On the negative side, the risk is if UW and Oregon State don’t go our way. The ASU game could be pretty important to save us from two consecutive years of lacking bowl eligibility.

Go Bears!

Question (that most good Bear fans more or less know the answer to):

When’s the last time the Bears lost at home to a team not named Oregon State or USC?

September 6th, 2003 (to Colorado State of all teams).

Yes, SEVEN and a half seasons ago. Two THOUSAND, six hundred and four days ago on Saturday. 224973000 seconds when the games starts (plus or minus a thousand or so).

Wait, there’s more! Because we only play USC and Oregon State in odd numbered years there are really two streaks:

1. The above mentioned streak
2. Not losing at home at all in even numbered years since November 16th 2002 (in a shootout to Arizona)

And it’s not like no good teams have come to play during that time. ASU was ranked twice (20th both times), Oregon also twice (11th and 23rd), Tennessee was ranked 15th, and last year Arizona was ranked 18th.

Those streaks may end this season when Oregon, currently ranked #1, comes to town on November 13th (although call me an optimist because I think Cal still has a shot at that one if the defense comes to play), but here’s what I can tell you with a fair amount of confidence:

These streaks will not end tomorrow. There’s no way ASU breaks the streaks. No way; No how. Not this unranked, 3-3 team with a mistake prone quarterback and penalty gobbling team that Tedford only lost once to (in the disaster in the desert in 2007) and hasn’t beat the Bears in Berkeley since 1997. Nope, not going to happen. It’s not even going to be close:

Bears win 30-13

(PS. Just in case, bring your vocal A-Game in the rain tomorrow. You’re going to be wet, you might as well have some fun with it. Think Oregon 2008.)

The role of a Cal fan is one generally with the same symptoms as a person with bipolar disorder. What’s different is the frequency with which we can switch back and forth. I’m finding myself stuck in that quickly vacillating rut.

Part of me looks at this Nevada team and is scared… really, really, really scared. Are we going to spend all evening having flashbacks to Oregon 2009? Or perhaps Armed Forces bowl 2007, the first half anyway. Could this Nevada team spread us out, until we hold water as well as a colander? Could the Bear offense not do as well if it’s not getting the ball back repeated after 3 and outs? Do the Bears have what it takes to win a shootout? It all leaves me very nervous.

But then there’s the part of me that wants to give a dogbert “BAH!” to Nevada. Look at their small and mediocre defense. We’re going to crush them with ball control. We’re going to disrupt their offensive line (although the size of their offensive line gives a moment’s pause). Look what Notre Dame, yeah, ND, that Catholic team (Ken makes the sign of the cross) that lost to the Stanford team we manhandled last year… look what they did to Nevada!

So which of my inner personalities wins this one?

Well, it’s a little of both. I think Nevada will put up some points early while their offense slightly confuses the Bears, but the Bears offense wins the day and keeps the ball away from Nevada. Bears win what looks like a shootout in the 1st half and turns into a ball-control win in the 2nd:

Bears 45, Nevada 27

In my preseason prediction I indicated that the Buffaloes were in a free-fall and I expected the Bears to win easily 35-13. But now they’ve played a game and handily beat Colorado State 24-3. You’d think that would make me a bit more hesitant, but it doesn’t.

When you look inside the numbers of their win over Colorado State, they didn’t dominate. 3 turnovers by CSU aided the CU win. CU only had just over 300 yards and they gave up 200 yards passing to an anemic CSU offense. It bears repeating, Colorado State was only 3-9 in 2009, losing to teams like Idaho, Wyoming and New Mexico (yes, the same New Mexico that just got blown out 72-0 by the Oregon Ducks).

I just don’t see Colorado as having performed all that well last week.

So what are the strengths of Colorado? Well, they’ve finally put aside the coach’s son as the starting QB for starters. That definitely had some positive affect for them last week. Their corners are supposedly quite good. They also picked up a USC defector as a wide receiver who seems to have a lot of promise. But otherwise, there’s a lot of mediocre on that team.

Mediocre line play on both sides of the ball. Mediocre running game. Mediocre linebackers.

Add to this that there are few areas where I’m more optimistic about the Bears than before the season. Keenan Allen and good TE play is going to result in a better passing game. Better secondary play is going to keep Colorado’s offense in check. And there was no area I saw where the Bears had clearly taken a step back, although the defensive line might be the one area that could challenge that assertion.

But overall the point is that the Bears look better than I hoped, albeit by a little bit and Colorado looks just as weak as I suspected and in some ways even weaker just based on how impressed they are with themselves for beating Colorado State.

So I’m upping my prediction and inking it in the Pick’Em league. Bears win even bigger: 42-13

Let’s be honest, what does anyone really know about UC Davis? I mean, I live in the Sacramento area and nobody around here cares about their sports programs. If anything, Sac State is the more talked about program, even though at this point UC Davis is the superior program (Sac State is a lot more entrenched as a sports program in the region).

If you go to the Sac Bee sports page and drill down to the college section, there’s not a single article about UC Davis despite their being an article about both Cal and Stanford. You’ve got to go to the archive before you find anything.

Reading through the few articles I could find from fall camp, here’s what we know:

• They’re breaking in a Redshirt Freshman as their starting QB name Randy Wright
• He’s replacing a two-year starter that was supposed to be their senior star who left UC Davis to be a minister this summer.
• Wright is “a threat with his legs.”
• They use a running back by committee approach with 6 RB’s listed as likely playing on Saturday.
• They lost their star receiver to graduation who walked on to the 49ers before being cut last week.
• They were 6-5 last year and won the “Great West” conference. The two preceding years they were 5-7 and 5-6.
• They got a couple votes in the main FCS poll coming in at an unofficial 37.
• Their practices and scrimmages are open to the public. (Apparently they don’t subscribe to the Jeff Tedford school of media relations.)
• Their coach is part time, teaching tennis and racquetball classes for the University.
• They held a scrimmage at 7 PM on August 27th and admission was free.

That’s really just about everything said in the 2 articles and handful of blurbs. No recap of the scrimmage, no position by position notes, I’m sure I could have dug up a depth chart somewhere and it’s 80% likely the link won’t be dead. But that’s about it.

That said, does it really matter? I didn’t know anything about Portland State or Eastern Washington either, two teams that I suspect far more info is available for, and it didn’t stop me from pontificating.

This game is really all about the Bears and seeing how crisp and sharp they look on both sides of the ball. So what are we looking for? Here’s my list of what I’ll be looking for:

• How do the WRs look, particularly Keenan Allen. Are they running sharp routes? Are they finding the holes in the zone? Do they look in sync with Riley? Are they taking plays off?
• How is Edwards doing at tackle? Has his consistency improved? One could generalize this to the whole line. The key is *consistency* not whether they blow people off the line most downs. They should do that just based on their size advantage. The question is whether play after play, they’re executing.
• How much playing time is MSG getting? How healthy does he look?
• How is Eric Stevens progressing?
• How does this new aggressive defensive scheme look? Does it look overly risky? Do the players seem to be playing with their hair on fire or do they look hesitant? How much zone in the secondary? How much 4-3 versus how much 3-4?
• How is Marc Anthony developing at cornerback?
• How deep are Tavecchio’s kickoffs getting?

Of course I’ll be observing things overall to see how the team is developing, but those are the key areas I’ll be looking for.

The long talked about game-by game predictions are here:

UC Davis @ Cal => 13-38: Many will be picking a bigger score here, and if were purely based on talent and coaching, I would as well, but Davis will come out strong under the delusion that they can repeat their upset over Stanford, keeping the score in check early and Tedford will pull off the accelerator in the 4th quarter right when we could have exploded into a very high score.

Colorado @ Cal => 13 – 35: I know Colorado scares some people, but they don’t scare me. This is a team that is in a free-fall. They were 3-9 last year, losing to teams like Toledo and Colorado State. The feeling on campus is that coach Hawkins would have been fired last year if his buyout wasn’t so big. I expect the Bears to win this one easily.

Cal @ Nevada => 42-24: This is another one that has some people nervous and why shouldn’t they be. We’ve struggled on the road in non-conference play, anyone remember 2008 Maryland? I think that just like last year against Minnesota, these Bears are weary of treating road games lightly and will come with all their force to an over-appreciated (and that’s good, in this case) Nevada team that won’t be able to handle the size and speed of Cal. I do expect Nevada’s quirky offense to give the Bears a little bit of trouble, and that’s why they get 24 points, but the game should never be in doubt.

Cal @ Arizona => 20-24: For whatever reason Cal can’t seem to get the job done in Arizona. I expect it to feel very similar to the 2008 contest in that one feels like the Bears could win this game if they could get firing on all cylinders, but for whatever reason they don’t. I also expect a heroic effort by the Bear defense that keeps our hopes alive for way too long. This game will feel bigger than it is because both teams will be ranked and undefeated coming in and Arizona will be able to milk the win for quite a while.

UCLA @ Cal => 17-45: UCLA is to Cal in Berkeley as Cal is to Arizona in Tucson. They just can’t get it done. Plus, this is a UCLA team that couldn’t beat the Bears in their home stadium, the Rose Bowl. This “pistol” offense at UCLA will have long since been exposed after losses to K-State, Stanford and Texas have them at 2-3, maybe even 1-4 if Houston can have some of their 2009 magic back.

Cal @ USC => 24-31: At first I had this as a defensive struggle because there’s something about Tedford and Carroll that generally result in a defensive struggle. But as much as everyone likes to think USC is some uninterrupted set of greatness and it doesn’t matter that Carroll left like a flash as soon as sanctions looked eminent, it DOES matter. Nevertheless, I think the Bears will come up short in this one even though for the first time since 2004, they’ll actually get some offense going.

ASU @ Cal => 12-35: Dennis Erickson is not long for the Pac-10 and the way I’m reading their schedule, they’ll be on a 4 game losing streak and on the back-end of a 3-game road stretch when they come to Cal. That’s going to be a recipe for a team that has given up and gives up the ghost pretty early in this one, scoring only 4 field goals.

Cal @ OSU => 17-20: The Bears have struggled against Oregon State and generally it’s been the OSU defense stifling the Bear offense. I expect that to remain true in 2010 and the Bears are going to come home from Corvallis a frustrating 5-3. There’s a chance that the Bears come away with this win. The defense is going to have to come away with another strong performance and Tedford is going to have to FINALLY beat coach Riley’s press coverage that has given the Bears so much trouble. It also could be that OSU is pretty beat down as well, as it’s conceivable they’re 2-4 after tough road games to Arizona and UW, back up their tough non-conference schedule. At the same time, this is a team that could be undefeated and very highly ranked when the Bears come a knocking. I’d prefer to take a wait-and-see approach to this game, but a game-by-game prediction post doesn’t have much room for that.

Cal @ WSU => 38-17: WSU will look better this year and be 3-6 (wins over Montana St., SMU and ASU), riding high off keeping their bowl hopes alive versus ASU the previous week in Tempe. They’ll end up falling three games short though and Cal will put an end to those dreams. Hope for a 4 PM kickoff on TV. The 7 PM TV slot could be a more dicey game and we’d prefer for the game to be on TV wouldn’t we?

Oregon @ Cal => 20-31: It’s payback time and the Bears will know it. They’ll be playing loose and hard having ensured bowl eligibility the week before and wanting to show every citizen of Oregon how much of a fluke last year’s game was. Oregon will still be struggling to get back to their former selves with Masoli off the team. Plus, expect them to be a little over-confident with their easy early schedule. They’ll be 8-1, the lone loss being to USC who won’t be in Rose Bowl contention and think too little of the Golden Bears. Then we’ll find ourselves in the odd situation of rooting for them to beat Arizona the following week to keep our Rose Bowl hopes alive and then praying for OSU to take them down.

Stanford @ Cal => 17-38: I’ve got only two things to say: Tedford: 7-1 vs. the Trees. Harbaugh: 1-2 and 0-1 on the road. IT. AIN’T. GONNA. HAPPEN. TREES! As the guy from Berkeley Toyota used to say: Nobody Beats Berkeley! They never have and they never will!

Washington @ Cal => 24-35: This has trap game written all over it. The good news is that if things go the way we hope, the Bears, even after these results, will still have a very real shot at the Rose Bowl. We’ll need the above sequence with Oregon and Arizona, but that should be about it. The bad news is that I have UW at 4-6 coming into this game. With WSU after the Bears, they’ll know bowl eligibility is in striking distance if they can win this one. Add in that the stadium should be half empty and it’s a perfect trap game. You can put that out of your mind now because this game is revenge part II. The Bears won’t forget the debacle in Seattle and will keep their high level bowl hopes alive.

So there you have it, 9-3 with 6-3 in conference play. If the conference beats itself up, with USC out of the mix, the Bears could be Rose Bowl bound. But OSU and Arizona will be the trouble-makers who need to lose those key games as will Oregon, albeit two less since a tie with the Ducks is OK and they’ve got the loss from us on the schedule, where a tie with OSU or Arizona won’t do us any good, so they’ll need to lose two others.

Let’s see how it plays out.

There was an interesting set of posts over at CGB about how many games the Bears will win in 2010 and they got feedback from everyone asking what they thought the percentage chance that the Bears win each game from a bunch of people. End result was that the consensus was 8-4 with a likely loss to USC, 50-50 shot at Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona and UW (slightly better than that for UW, but close enough), accounting for 2 losses, and us likely losing to one of ASU, UCLA, Stanford or Nevada (i.e. a 75% chance of beating each). That more or less get’s one 8-4.

That felt about right to me. Then just because I was trying to escape the pile of work in front of me I watched both the Stanford and Arizona highlights that Danzig and crew put together and I think I’m a lot more optimistic on this season. Let me break it down:

I’ll concede the loss to USC and the 50/50 on both Oregon and Arizona. That gets us two losses. But here’s what I can say with confidence is NOT going to happen, in order of my confidence:

1. We’re not going to lose to ASU in Berkeley. No way, no how. That team has nothing of note to build on and things just look ugly for the “getting too tired” Erickson. Looks like 2007 was his last hurrah and even that was a heavily schedule aided hurrah.
2. We’re not going to lose to UCLA in Berkeley. 95% sure of that. We beat them in Pasadena last year to break the curse and they haven’t beat us in Berkeley going back a LONG ways, even including some Holmoe time. Add to that history that they’ve only got slightly more going for them than ASU and it’s just not going to happen.
3. UW is the most over appreciated team in the conference and the reason is that they beat Cal at the end of the season. If they had lost that game, nobody would think them any better than UCLA or ASU. But they beat Cal in a game the Bears never showed up for. That’s there entire resume minus beating a WAY over confident USC who was without their QB early in the season and Arizona having players who’s shoes shoot the ball 15 feet in the air. By the time they get to Berkeley after Thanksgiving having been beaten down with their tough road schedule and still having no hope of bowl eligibility, the Bears will handle them easily, particularly after the cautionary tale of 2009. Call me 90% confident of that win.

So that leaves Stanford, Nevada and Oregon State. To be fair, I could see the Bears losing two of those, but in the end I don’t think it’s going to happen. A loss to OSU is the most likely but something says to me that the OSU run of over-achieving has ended and the Bears will be hungry. Nevada is likely over-feared by Bear fans, which is a good thing, but the Bears notoriously do well during the non-conference games. That leaves only Stanford, which I think 7-1 vs. 1-2 speaks volumes for. Stanford is my #2 for most over-ranked team in the conference. Everyone will be onto their shtick in 2010 and Toby was more important than people realize. Luck won’t be so lucky in 2010.

So from my vantage point, they lose one of those three games, not two, and this is a 9-3 team, with upsides to 10-2 and 8-4 being the floor of acceptability.

Going back to the Stanford and Arizona videos. I really believe that Vereen is a better running back for the Cal system than Best. Best was spectacular, but he didn’t “grind it out”, which is what Tedford wants from his run game. I think the O-Line responded better to Vereen than they did to Best, not because they didn’t like Best (Best was dearly loved by the whole team), but because Vereen was the sort of back that got their testosterone pumping. His style had them hitting harder and playing harder. And that helped Riley too on the passing downs. That’s what I saw in those videos and I think it’s the key to 2010.

Add that to a new defensive scheme that won’t hang our secondary out to dry and a number of the weaker areas of the last couple years having a bit more experience on them, and I’m more optimistic than most.

So if we’re going to do an over/under for the 2010 season and 8-4 is the benchmark, put my money firmly on the over side. I don’t have delusions of a Rose Bowl run (OK, maybe in that part of me that’s truly delusional), but I do think this Cal Bear team is better than people think.

Well, it’s game day and I can’t quite make up my mind how scared I am of Oregon State. My co-worker who’s a relatively fair OSU alum thinks that Canfield is going to be a real problem for the Bears. He thinks the Bears are going to either have to stop the Rodger brothers at the line of scrimmage and risk getting burned by Canfield downfield, or keep everything in front of them and let the Rodgers brother nickle and time them to death with the occasional big play that’ll kill the Bears. In some sense I’m inclined to agree that if the Beavers win, that’s about what it’s going to come down to.

At the same time, this has the makings of a Pac-10 shootout. There’s a reason that the over/under is at 61 (it averages in the low 50’s for most games).

I like the Bears chances in a shootout. The Beavers might have the Rodgers brothers, but we’ve got a much bigger family of explosive players than OSU. At the same time, the Bear defense is more opportunistic than OSU’s and is more likely to come up with the big turnover. They’re also more likely to force a lot of redzone field-goals when things get more dicey for the passing game. The running game is more important in the redzone and the Bears have the edge in that. These edges, both for the Bears and the Beavers, become most obvious when you look at the statistical preview I did over at BearTerritory.net (subscription required).

Finally, don’t think too much about the history of this match up. Yes, the Beavers are undefeated against Tedford in Berkeley and they’re on a 2 game winning streak, but the Bears were on a 3 game winning streak over the Ducks including a recent victory in Eugene and we saw how that worked out for the Bears. Does anyone really think that if Longshore was healthy against OSU in 2007 the Bears wouldn’t have won that game? They nearly won with a redshirt Freshman QB for who the game didn’t start slowing down until the 4th quarter. Add in that in 2005 the Bears were Booya handicapped and all of a sudden the Beavers winning streak in Berkeley makes a lot more sense and isn’t so intimidating. In each game in Berekely going back to 2003 the Bears have been breaking in a new QB for the OSU game (in 2003 it was Aaron Rodger’s 3rd start overall and he had sat most of the 2nd half of the USC game the preceding week) and the Beavers beat the Bears with press coverage and daring the Bears to beat them over the top.

Going to the games in Corvallis, the Bears destroyed the Beavers in 2004 and 2006, so it’s not like the Beavers “have the Bear’s number”. The game last year was competitive and the Corvallis home field advantage was an important factor. Based solely on last years game, I think if you play that same game in Berkeley, Cal likely wins. Add in that OSU has lost far more talent since then than the Bears and it’s not exactly like past history suggests a Beaver victory even though that’s the way it seems.

The “Beaver struggles” are more like the difficulty Cal has had beating UCLA in the Rose Bowl. The sample size is small and there’s lots of extenuating circumstances. We all saw how that worked out this year in the Rose Bowl. In the end they actually play the game instead of just counting on history to determine the outcome. Most of the time, the better team wins despite what history may have to say.

So, take heart. There’s no jinx here. The statistics suggest an even match up. The recent match ups and talent changes suggest Cal should do well. And finally, the game is in Berkeley where the Bears play very well.

Bring your fan A-Game today and expect a good game with the Bears coming out on top: 35-28