I could really use an upset win right about now
(Written by kencraw)
One of the things that has made it easy to be a Bear fan over the years (I’m becoming a borderline Old Blue) is that low expectations coupled with winning a fair number of games at home made things liveable. But it was the occasional great game, the upset that we could all hang our collective hats on, that made the liveable, not just enjoyable, but addicting.
To some degree 2004-2006 “ruined” that with high expectations. There was hardly a game that could legitimately be called an upset in recent years. We were expected to be contenders in all games. While there were games we were worried about losing, we had reasons to think that every game on the schedule was not only winnable, but it would be a stretch to call that win an upset. It was all downside and very little upside.
Last year changed that by significantly lowing expectations for 2011. We all just wanted to get back to bowl eligibility. 7-5 would be a VERY positive sign. We all wrote off three games in our minds: Oregon, Stanford, USC. They were loses. It would be a BIG upset to win any of them.
It’s time for that big upset.
I need it. My Bear-fandom is starting to feel stagnant and predictable. I need that feeling like 2000 UCLA and 2003 USC (I still don’t forgive myself for missing that one in person). The last time we had something resembling that was the 2009 Big Game. Remember how great that was? Remember the glow afterwards?
It’s time to have that feeling again. USC has had our number since 2005 (they won in 2004, but it’s hard to look at that game as if USC dominated). We’ve gotten roughed up more times than I care to remember. Last year, just when it looked like there was hope, that the Carroll Juggernaut was broken, that USC was vulnerable, we got destroyed in one of the worst loses in recent memory. It was terrifyingly bad to watch on TV.
Really, I can’t come up with many reasons why the Bears should win this year. Oregon removed any doubt that our offense is going to be stellar. It’s pretty clear the offense is going to have inconsistency problems for a while. It also put the nail in the coffin that the defense, particularly the secondary, will return to last year’s form. If there was any hope left, it faded with Marc Anthony’s separated shoulder that has him doubtful for tomorrow’s game.
As for USC, their offense is beginning to gel despite inconsistency to date. The bye gives them time to rest and time to solve the problems they have on defense. Considering the team is loaded with talent, solving those problems is easier for them than others.
But you know what, inconsistent offenses occasionally have games that are stellar (what we need from the Bears tomorrow night) and some games that are horrific (what we need from USC). Defenses with lots of young talent occasionally have games where everything just clicks (what we need from the Bears) and games where they look horribly out of position (what we need from USC). There’s no reason we SHOULD win the game, but there’s no doubt we COULD see the big upset.
It’s time Bears. This borderline Old Blue would be thrilled to have my Old Blue experience “ruined” again and to see the team return to being a perennial Rose Bowl contender (and for the love of all that is Holy, an eventual trip to the Rose Bowl before I die). But for right now, all I want is that upset that keeps the Old Blues coming back game after game, year after year. It’s time.
GO BEARS!
October 12th, 2011 at 10:32 am
The sad thing is, even if we beat SC this is only an upset in our minds. SC is a mediocre shell of its former self. This is SC team is not better than UW, this is an SC team that, not only should we be able to hang with, we should be able to beat at home.
However, like you I have many doubts and a lot of reason as to why we will not only lose but probably lose by two TD’s.
I really hope I am wrong. The team and program needs this win for a lot of reasons: bowl eligibility, confidence moving forward, sending the seniors off with ONE win against SC, fans to see that Cal is moving in the right direction, and Tedford to help keep the heat off of him.
October 12th, 2011 at 10:39 am
I wouldn’t say that 858. If you look at the power rankings of all the people who follow the Pac-12 from Ted Miller to Jon Wilner, they put USC up in the 5 range, competitive with the ASU’s and UW’s and they put us down in the 8 range with UCLA, WSU and now Utah.
While Vegas is only spotting us about 3 points, everyone will see this as an upset if we pull it off.
October 12th, 2011 at 11:53 am
I suppose everyone at Cal and some people in the Pac12 will see this as an upset. However, with the national media and CFB fans across the nation this will hardly register on the CFB radar as an “upset”.
In my opinion and for probably 99% of all Cals fans, fans that follow Cal closely and know our struggles against SC this will be a huge upset for us. SC is currently ranked so high because they play in the weak Pac12.
However, in CFB where perception is reality, the perception is that SC is a mediocre, middle of the Pac12 team that has been crippled for a variety of reason: poor recruiting during the last years of PC, highly touted 4 and 5* recruits who never amounted to much of anything, upper classmen who would have provided depth and a few starters who transfered to other schools, and of course the sanctions/bowl ban that SC is dealing with at the moment.
Here we are in year 10 of the Tedford era, playinig a home game against a SC team that is a shell of its former self, a SC team that has lost to every Pac10 school (some more than once) since 03 with the exception of Cal and WSU and to top it off is coached by Lane Kiffin now rather than PC. Yet, here we are a 3 point underdog when in fact we should have achieved enough to be favored in this game.
Anyways, if we win this will be considered an upset for me and you and all Cal fans but I doubt it is something that will make the media or other people in CFB sit up and say “wow” if we were to win.
Sorry for ranting, it is just the frustration speaking.
October 12th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Great post, Ken. I’m in 100% agreement. I hear what Cal858 is saying, but Cal fans (students especially, but also old-and not-so-old blues) would see this as a HUGE upset, meriting storming the field in reckless abandon if the game were at Memorial. The program needs this sort of win. These players, these coaches, and we the fans need that sort of win.
GO BEARS!
October 12th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Yeah, I was trying to solidify what it was about 858’s thinking that wasn’t quite right in my mind. I agree with him that a Cal win wouldn’t raise many eyebrows across the nation.
But I think you (Joshiemac) bring it into focus by focusing on what matters: We’ll be stoked… and I don’t care if anyone else is.
We’re no longer in a place where national perception means much (of course it matters for recruiting). We’re no where near sniffing a ranking or anything like that nor in competition for a BCS bowl. Who cares what anyone else thinks?
But it does matter what we all think. We’re in a place where WE (the entire Cal Bear nation) need a pick-me-up. So all that really matters is whether from our local perspective it’s a big upset. That’s what matters and it will be.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:19 pm
I do agree with you Ken that it would be a huge upset win for us Cal fans and I don’t really care what other people think about Cal.
Here is a question. By calling it an “upset” game are we saying we don’t expect to win? I know we are three point dogs at home but that isn’t a huge line, which means Vegas expects this to be a close game If we don’t win do we simply shrug it off as “well we weren’t supposed to win that game anyways” and if we get blown out yet again like the last two years how are we supposed to react?
If we get blown out does that show that the gap between us and an average SC team is widening? What does that say about Tedford and this coaching staff? If the past, at least the last two seasons we could lay some blame at Marshall, Ludwig, etc but now that Tedford has his new/old staff back together and we lose badly again what does that mean?
Of course, I would prefer us to just win so that we can celebrate and say that this Cal team, Tedford and his new staff are all going in the right direction.
October 12th, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Win = Upset
Lose by 10 or less = We’re about where we thought
Lose by 11+ = Uh-oh… this is REAL trouble now
Of course that’s the “effective” loss, not the actual score (i.e. a last minute pick-6 while we’re driving to try and close the gap in the last minutes wouldn’t count to the above).
October 12th, 2011 at 1:33 pm
I can agree with that assessment Ken.
Will you be at the game tomorrow?
October 12th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Oh yeah, wouldn’t miss it. Cutting out of work shortly after lunch in the Sac area and heading down. If I were my employer, I wouldn’t expect a very productive Friday out of me. 🙂
October 13th, 2011 at 6:27 am
I’m hoping the Bears get smoked.
Since I’m in the middle of fall wedding season, I’ve got a lot of pictures to edit, and I tend to ignore the game more when they stink.
October 13th, 2011 at 10:56 pm
Blech! Faceplant.
Sigh. Go Bears.