(Written by kencraw)

A friend of mine at work and I have played around with the idea of a software program that identifies games to bet on where the odds are poorly set. We both believe that buried in the statistics are the keys to make money.

However, we disagree as to what part of the season is most ripe for making money. He thinks there is lots of money to be made in the first couple weeks of the season. People put way too much emphasis on things like returning “starters” when what really matters is playing time. (He’s an Oregon fan and has seen how their aggressive player rotations have netted players with lots of experience but who aren’t officially “starters”.)

While I see what he’s after, I think there are just too many unknowns in the first couple weeks. Instead I think the best time is late September and early October. By this point in the season there is enough real data to start making meaningful conclusions. At the same time, teams have had such VASTLY different schedules, the ability to make the right conclusions from the data requires a lot of work to adjust the statistics based on the competition.

Which brings us to Arizona State…

What would Cal’s record be right now if they had played the teams that Arizona State has played? Of course the Bears would have beat Northern Arizona, but frankly the other 3 are a bit harder to judge. Cal probably beats Illinois too, as they look pretty bad. Missouri is the tough one. They could be pretty dang good and be similar to Cal and having played a tough schedule. But since ASU lost to them, let’s assume the Bears do too. That leaves only Utah, which I won’t comment on yet.

Point being, it’s not unreasonable to expect the Bears to have fared similarly, at least record wise as ASU with their schedule.

Flipping the table, how would ASU have done against Cal’s schedule? This has a fair amount of question marks in it too. Would they have beat Nevada? Well, there’s a good reason to believe they might have. At the same time, Nevada is good enough that it’s possible they could have lost. What about Ohio State and USC? Frankly, I have every reason to believe they would have lost those games just as Cal did.

The point of this exercise, is that it is not out of the question to think that had ASU faced Cal’s schedule they’d be 1-3 as well and if Cal had faced ASU’s schedule they’d be 3-1. That would of course include Utah, which is a harder team to judge at this point, but they most definitely look very beatable right now.

Vegas, by the way, is unsure of itself. Most of the lines started with ASU as a 1-2 point favorite and it switched to being a Cal 2-2.5 point favorite.

All of the above was a long way of saying the basic statistics point to this game being even, based on the limited and very divergent information we have.

That’s when it really is all about one’s opinion.

My opinion is that the Bears are a team with a lot of potential and their 1-3 record is the result of playing below potential against Nevada, the Ohio State game having been a tough one with some breaks not going the Bears way and USC, well, they’ve just got our number.

I think they’ve got enough potential that if they play up to that potential against ASU, I think they win it somewhat easily. ASU has looked great against pretty weak opposition, but I think they’re a team with lots of weaknesses to exploit. They won’t dominate in the trenches like they have in all of their 3 victories and their skill players aren’t so good that they will find a way to be successful without that sort of domination. Missouri demonstrated that. ASU became mistake prone and sputtered when they no longer had the talent advantage.

Despite that, I’m not sitting on a lot of confidence in my opinion, because I’m not so sure the Bears will play up to their potential today.

Part of me thinks this could be a VERY big breakout game for the Bears. They know they’re much better than their record and their going to go out there and avenge the loss to Nevada and rise above the last two tough games. They’ve got something to prove and frankly, when a Tedford team has felt that way against a beatable foe, the team has generally rose to the occasion. (It’s when the Bears are true underdogs that they seem not to rise to the occasion.) Add that to being at home and wanting to get back on the right track and the Bears could play the way we wanted them to versus Nevada. Call this re-opening Memorial Stadium – take II.

At the same time, I’m a bit worried that the USC loss took something out of this team. That loss was clearly a tough blow for the team and it would not entirely surprise me if that game was the one that will doom the season and the Bears will never come out sharp and confident again.

So which is it?

Call me an optimist: Bears 38, ASU 24