(Written by kencraw)

Here are my thoughts on our remaining opponents and our chances against them:

Arizona State:

Arizona State has been getting a lot of hype for their turn-around and generally with good reason. However, I think it’s been a little TOO glowing. Who have they beat? 2-2 Illinois who have “epic” wins over Western Michigan and Charleston Southern, 2-2 Utah who actually has a somewhat interesting nail-biter win over BYU and Northern Arizona. Their loss was to Missouri who’s had a rough schedule and is 2-2 themselves.

This ASU team reminds me a bit of when Erickson took over and went off on a good run. They had an easy early season giving them too much hype. With the game in Berkeley, I think the Bears have a good shot at this:

Outcome: Marginal win

UCLA:

Which UCLA is the “real” UCLA? The team that beat Nebraska or the team that lost to Oregon State? It’s worth noting that Nebraska hasn’t won a meaningful game yet, with wins over Southern Miss, Arkansas State and Idaho State. OK, that’s not the worst lineup, but it’s also not great and it’s hard to tell how much of Nebraska’s 16 ranking was due to their reputation or their play. In a related fashion, how good is Oregon State? More on that later, but in summary, with only two games so far, both against teams with question marks, it’s hard to tell.

Nevertheless, I think UCLA is the #2 team in a weak South division and will provide a formidable challenge. The Bears have had their number in Berkeley for too long to ignore across multiple coaches.

Outcome: Marginal win

Washington State:

I still believe WSU is on the right track as a program, but it’s clear that Leach’s system won’t take hold over night. Furthermore, they’re VERY susceptible to the comeback as they have NO way to run down the clock (and seem to refuse to try) and their defense is easily beat for big gains. The loss to Colorado last night was embarrassing and will be a real confidence hit for them, particularly considering they’re going to lose the next two, to Oregon and Oregon State before facing Cal.

Outcome: Likely win

Stanford:

It’s hard not to look at the back-to-back USC games and assume this is a loss. And while it may very well be, let’s remember that Stanford has USC’s number and Cal clearly doesn’t. Let’s also remember that USC had huge injury problems against Stanford which were resolved against Cal. Let’s remember who played at home and who played at the Coliseum. Let’s remember the outcome of last year’s USC games and how the Bears played Stanford tight anyway. Plus, this year’s Big Game is in Berkeley.

As for Stanford on their own merits, they started off shaky against a worse-than-Nevada San Jose State, and have improved dramatically since. Yet other than the USC game, they haven’t really been tested. We’ll know more after their next 3 games against UW, Arizona and Notre Dame. It doesn’t hurt that they’ll be finishing a 3 of 4 on the road stretch when they come to Berkeley. All that said, hard to ignore the USC games.

Outcome: Marginal loss

Utah:

If this game was in Berkeley, it would be an easy call. The question is how the Bears play on the road at altitude. Utah looked terrible last night against Arizona State and frankly other than BYU haven’t played well. On paper I think the Bears win this one.

Outcome: Marginal win

Washington:

Even more so than Oregon State, not a lot on their resume to judge them by, either good or bad. A middling win over San Diego State, blown out by LSU and an easy win over Portland State. What can you take from that? Not much really. The game is in Berkeley and the Bears have played UW close here. Yet we’ve lost 3 in a row to the Huskies. The Friday night game helps the home team as well.

Outcome: Toss-up

Oregon:

Oregon looks incredible. By far the best team in the conference. Their dominance of an over-ranked Arizona last night was impressive. Particularly notable is the defense, which will stifle the Bears. I’d love to believe we could repeat our 2010 performance, but there’s no way.

Outcome: Assured loss

Oregon State:

Riley has the Beavers hungry again, that’s for sure. Yet they’ve only played two games both against teams that were thought highly of yet were untested. But no matter what level of spin you want to put around it, Oregon State is undefeated and their defense looks reminiscent of the ones that stifled Cal over the last decade. With the game on the road, hard to be too optimistic.

Outcome: Somewhere between marginal and likely loss

Summary:

What’s notable is that there is only one likely win on my list. So for the pessimistic amongst us, this season could go really, really, poorly. However, there’s plenty of marginal wins, 3, that put the Bears at 5 wins overall if they win all the ones I think they’re supposed to. Win the toss-up against UW and the Bears are bowl eligible and pull the upset over Stanford and the Bears are 7-5.

Again, it’s all about what your perspective is. Are you just looking at this season and the trending? If so, then there is reason to be optimistic. But if you’re looking for a team that truly gives us something to be happy about, that shows Cal is pushing back into the upper echelons of the conference, then you’re guaranteed to be disappointed.

I will say this: With so many winnable games coming up, the Bears better play well and win them, or Tedford won’t be here in January. They also better get to 6 wins before the Oregon game if they truly hope to be bowl eligible. I’d hate to be headed to Corvallis needing a win.