The first thing one sees when one digs in to what is happening at Northwestern is a distracted team, full of controversy. They’re of course the epicenter of the players rights movement, where the players sued for the right to unionize. That’s been a big story all summer and one can’t help but think that it affected their focus and cohesion as a team (coaches included). The 2nd headline on the site I visit for news is “Union talk fades as Northwestern begins”. One thing I’ve grown quite confident about is that if the headline is “Team not distracted by X” you can take it to the bank that they’re distracted.

But it doesn’t end there. First their starting running back is suspended for 2 games for breaking team rules. Then he decides he wants to be closer to home and transfers to Texas A&M. Then their leading receiver from 2013 went down with a season ending knee injury.

This is NOT a team that is coming into the season firing on all cylinders.

So we have a Cal team that could have won the game last year had their true freshman not thrown 3 key interceptions in the 2nd half of the game, and a Northwestern team that appears to be reeling. Plus, last year Northwestern was ranked 22nd and was coming to Berkeley with a lot of confidence. They don’t come into this season with any high expectations.

How much more evidence do I need that this game should go the Bears way?

Well, apparently I need more than that. My gut just can’t shake the idea that the Bears aren’t as good as they need to be. As much as I want the offensive line and the secondary to make the big leap the team needs them to make, what I’m hearing so far isn’t giving me comfort, particularly on the road where offensive lines can struggle with crowd noise. In my mind there’s almost a “they protest too much” factor. I just keeping hearing over and over how improved they are. At some point one can’t help wonder why they’re working so hard to sell us on the idea.

Speaking broadly, my gut is the defense loses this one for the Bears, giving up too many big plays and the exact wrong moments (like last year). The offense, while strong enough to score some points, will not be as mistake prone as last year’s game, but will still be far too one-dimensional to control the game. We’ll see our fair share of points, but not enough to make up for the defensive mistakes and it being an away game takes it’s toll late in the game. As a result, the Bears can’t put together the drives they need to win at the end.

Here’s hoping I’m wrong… Final score: Cal 34, Northwestern 38

It’s that time where I stick my neck out on the line and predict the final score of each game of the season. I used to be pretty good at this, but starting with the 2012 season I’ve had too much optimism. We’ll see where I sit this year…

@Northwestern:
We all saw Cal lose to a very beatable Northwestern team last year. For those who forget, the Bears were only trailing by a field goal midway through the 4th quarter when Goff threw an ill-advised pass that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. The Bears got a field-goal back to pull within a TD but when Goff threw yet another interception on the first play of their next possession, Cal’s tired defense couldn’t stop Northwestern from rushing down the field and scoring another TD and sealing the game. If Goff hadn’t thrown those two INTs, the game very likely would have turned out differently. One has to think that Goff won’t be making those sorts of mistakes (he wasn’t making them later in the season) this year. I also believe that Cal’s offensive line won’t leave the Bears so one dimensional as last year. I firmly believe that this year’s Bears would win last year’s game. The question is whether Northwestern is better than last year and/or whether the home-field advantage will play a role. For the answer to that, you’ll have to wait until my Northwestern preview post on Friday. Final Score: TBA

Sacramento State:
Not that much to say here. Yes, Cal struggled a bit versus Portland State last year. And yes, Sac State has a penchant for upsetting FBS teams (2012 over Colorado, 2011 over Oregon State). But Sac State has not been the team it was a few years ago (they lost to Montana and Cal Poly last year) and the FBS teams they beat were very vulnerable. Plus Cal won’t be taking anyone for granted. Cal goes up big early and wins easily. Final score: Cal 48 – Sac State 10

@Arizona:
Man I wish this game was in Berkeley. I’d be pretty confident of the Bears chances in this one if the game was in Strawberry Canyon. Arizona looks very vulnerable this year. They just picked a starting QB on Monday (a RS freshman) and are without their star RB Ka’Deem Carey (it looks like “RB by committee” is the order of the day). Rodriguez has been vocal in not being pleased with how his team is practicing this fall. And this is from the team the Bears should have beat last year at home. But Arizona also has a penchant for playing MUCH stronger at home. The Zona Zoo is not to be under estimated. The last 3 times Cal has gone into Tucson it arrived as a favorite and came home a frustrated loser (2010, 2008, 2006). (We didn’t play Arizona 2011 and 2012.) And it’s not just Cal. Lots of Pac-12 teams have seen a seemingly strong season get ripped apart with an upset in the desert. Plus Arizona should be 3-0 at that point with their weak non-conference schedule. Nevertheless, I’m going to go with the fundamentals, particularly the rebuilding Arizona team factor. The Cal defense will look good in this one and the offense will take a step back from the prior two games, but will get enough possessions to put up the points needed to win. Final Score: Cal 34 – Arizona 24

Colorado:
Don’t under estimate Colorado. People look at Colorado the same way they look at Cal. And if we’re foolish enough to believe the Bears can change, we’d better give Colorado the same respect. They’re in year 2 of a rebuilding effort under a new coach, just like Cal. It should be noted their new coach is someone who many think should be pacing the sidelines in Berkeley not Boulder. Point being, they could be much improved this year. And lets not forget how things turned out in Boulder last year. The Bears didn’t just get beat, it bordered on a beat-down. However, I think the inverse of Arizona proves true here. Colorado is a tough place to go play. The altitude throws the passing game off and all but the very best conditioned teams suffer. Remember that Cal whipped Colorado 52-7 at home in 2010 but needed overtime in 2011 to win in Boulder. Combine that with my belief that the Bears will improve equally if not more than Colorado this year, and Cal notches their (at least) third win in a game where neither offense looks all that impressive. Final score: Cal 27 – Colorado 23

@Washington State:
I really want to have good things to say about this game. But I think Washington State will be the surprise of the north this year, perhaps as high as 3rd place (yes, ahead of both OSU and UW). And bad things happen when Cal travels north to the frozen potato patch (although if there’s good news, it won’t be frozen yet on the 1st weekend of October). Plus, after watching last year’s game, it’s clear Dykes is powerless against his mentor. Even though the Bears will be sitting on a lot of confidence with the wins they’ve accumulated thus far, they come crashing (and I do mean crashing) down to earth in this one. Final score: Cal 13 – WSU 31

Washington:
I firmly believe the Bears will have one game this season that will be a significant upset. They’re hungry, they’ll take any win they can get and there will be teams that overlook them. (and even though this isn’t going to be what makes it happen, it’s worth noting that a big upset is critical for momentum of the program.) I think the two most likely teams for this to happen with are UW and UCLA. Speaking of UW, call me unconvinced about this team. They’ve got a new coach, one who had great success at Boise State. But there’s a LOOONG lineage of BSU coaches that tried to take their talents to the Pac and failed miserably. Plus, it’s not like the team was on a great trajectory last year. They’re most impressive win was a beat-down of Oregon State on the road. The did a great job of recruiting for the last few years, so there’s talent there, but I’m just not convinced they’re as good as people think. Don’t get me wrong, I expect the Bears to be looking up at them in the standings at the end of the year, but I think the Bears might just shock them. I’m calling it now, the Bears steal one in Berkeley. Final score: Cal 38 – UW 35

UCLA:
Do you know the last time UCLA beat Cal in Berkeley? I’ll give you a clue… I was kid-less, single and without a college degree. 1998. Stinking NINETEEN ninety-eight. For this reason alone I’d love to pick this as Cal’s upset of the year. And if I’m looking for reasons (beyond UCLA not traveling to Berkeley well) why this is the game, we’re the “letdown game” after they play Oregon the prior week. But this UCLA team is for real and frankly I think they’re still upset about losing to us in 2012. They definitely showed no mercy last year. Plus, UCLA is one of a few teams that will eat our 4-3 alive. The only reason Cal won in 2012 was because Pendergast’s 3-4 was finely tuned to contain the UCLA system. Cal will sadly be just as out classed as last year. Final score: Cal 17 – UCLA 38

Oregon:
In 2009, one of the guys who does/did video highlights of Cal games was so disgusted with Cal’s performance that his highlights was every second the TV crew showed the Oregon cheerleaders. This may be another year for that sort of “let’s not try to strain at gnats but turn to sarcasm” video. In homage to that sort of thinking, that’s all I have to say about that. Final score: Cal 16 – Oregon 48

@Oregon State:
If the Bears are as much improved as we’re hoping, this will be the measuring stick game. Oregon State will be good but not great. It is Mannion’s senior season and there’s a number of pieces on this OSU team that look like they’re coming together. There’s a good chance they are 5-2 (losses to Stanford and USC) and could even have pulled off an upset themselves. Nevertheless, this will be a beatable team. If Cal can make the trip to Corvallis and make a strong showing, even in a loss, there’s reason for hope from the Bears. Unfortunately, I think this game has “moral victory” written all over it just because OSU has too much mature talent. (I see them as much weaker next year.) Expect this one to be a classic Pac-12 shootout but one that the Bears don’t end up with the ball at the end. Final Score: Cal 38 – Oregon State 42

@USC:
Nothing good ever happens in the LA Coliseum. Luckily our losing streak there doesn’t quite go back as far as UCLA’s Berkeley streak (we won in 2000). But ever since then, even when the Bears have been close to USC’s equal, they just haven’t been able to get it done. And this year, Cal is no where close to USC’s equal. The Bears best hope is that USC is a talented but not very deep team because of their sanctions. Don’t be surprised to see them struggle a bit down the stretch if the injury bug hits them a bit harder than usual. But even with that, I don’t see the Bears winning this one. They might have a decent showing, and there might be a moment early in the game where there’s hope for a miracle, but by the end of the game, the better team will be clear. Final score: Cal 20 – USC 34

Big Game:
The safe pick here is of course to pick a loss. And I think it’s even safer at the end of the season. A lot of people seem to be overlooking how much Stanford has to replace in the trenches (and in the trenches is where Stanford wins its games). I could see them losing an early game they should win. But by this point in the season I expect to see a Stanford team that is firing on all cylinders. There is always the “anything can happen in the Big Game” factor, but that’s been less and less true in recent years. Unfortunately, the brutal stretch for the Bears continue and they can’t get the offense moving. Final score: Cal 10 – Stanford 27

BYU:
The Bears finish the season with a Thanksgiving weekend game against BYU at home. Thankfully the brutal stretch that started with Washington is over (hopefully with an upset in there somewhere). Last year BYU had some pretty big wins: Texas, Boise State and Georgia Tech. They also played some good teams reasonably tough, albeit in a loss: Notre Dame and Wisconsin. Personally I think too many Bear fans are prematurely putting this game in the win column. I see two important psychological factors in this game. 1. BYU will have a good record due to loading up on cupcakes. 2. Cal having just finished a brutal streak. This will be a big test of Dykes motivational skills. Can he get the team back up to play a strong game, particularly if bowl eligibility is out of the mix? Frankly, I’m not too confident about that. So while on paper I think the Bears can beat BYU, I’m going to call this a loss but I reserve the right to change my mind, particularly if Cal has 5 wins going into this one. Final score: Cal 31 – BYU 34

Pac-12 championship game:
I only put this because if you go to the official Cal website it has it on the schedule. Yeah… I’m pretty sure it’s safe to say we won’t be playing in that. The scandal of course is why isn’t the new playoff game and national championship game on the schedule too. This is an outrage! How DARE they assume we don’t make the championship game!?!

What does everyone think? Too optimistic?

Sorry for the lack of posts this week. Both a busy week for me and I kinda needed a week away from thinking about Cal football. Last week’s loss was pretty depressing to me. It’s not just that they lost. It’s that they lost so thoroughly.

The pundits have completely written off the Bears today. They’re expecting a slaughter. I’m actually inclined to disagree with them.

Here’s a question for you, what is the most points Stanford has scored after the month of September? 31 points. And that was in their first game of October. Since then, they’ve never gotten out of the 20s.

Stanford wins games by controlling the football and grinding it out. They’ve actually responded really poorly to trailing in a game. In fact, they lost the only two games that they trailed in (Correction, they trailed in a 3rd, Army, who just happened to score first, but Stanford had the lead before the 2nd quarter started).

The fundamental problem that Stanford has that they do a very good job of hiding is that Hogan is not that good of a QB. The minute you put some pressure on their passing game and force it to be successful or lose, they start making all sorts of offensive mistakes.

So the key to beating Stanford is to beat their defense early for a few scores and then watch them very slowly implode as the clock moves really fast.

Can Cal do that?

If you said yes… please go sell crazy somewhere else.

I guess there’s some theoretical 5% chance that Cal gets a few lucky scores early by throwing over the top and letting their very good WRs fight for the ball against Stanford’s a bit over-aggressive defense. But Cal has shown no inclination to do it and Goff hasn’t exactly excelled at it.

But the real killer is the Cal defense probably doesn’t have what it takes to keep it together even if the above miracle happens. They’re WAY too tempted to give up the easy score. The trailing trend only works if the defense has a backbone.

So Cal loses this one, although merely because Stanford won’t score that many points, it’s also closer than Vegas thinks.

Final score: Cal 13, Stanford 27

This is a really tough one for me. Part of it is that I’ve had a very good season predicting games. Only got one wrong so far and have nailed 3 to 4 depending on how picky one is for having nailed it. I don’t want to mess this one up. 🙂

The one game I missed was WSU. I thought Cal was going to win in the trenches against a less talented WSU. I was a year behind in understanding where WSU’s talent was. They had gotten a fair bit better. I fear that today I’ll make the same mistake of not appreciating how far Colorado has come.

Thus, I’ve spent a fair amount of time watching Colorado game highlight videos (well, usually the highlight is for the other team) this week. Here’s my assessment:

• Colorado has BCS conference size/speed. Unlike some of the weaker teams out there who struggle in BCS conferences because they just can’t recruit the bodies like the big boys, Colorado has the bodies.
• Overall team speed is mediocre, but they’ve got a few really fast guys.
• Their lines seem OK at getting stalemates in the middle, but aren’t exactly winning. Lot’s of the big plays against them seem to happen when there is just a big heap of guys at the line of scrimmage and the opposition just goes around the big mess.
• Their linebacker and defensive back units are pretty weak, particularly lacking in speed, but their tackling is not horrible.
• They seem to start well (they had a lead on Oregon for crying out loud!?!) but also seem to get discouraged later in the game as the opponent points start piling up.

Of all of those things, it’s the last one that worries me. Cal has been starting HORRIBLY, all season. The last thing this team needs is to get in a 10 point hole to start the game against Colorado. Colorado won’t be discouraged late if they’ve got a sizable lead and as the altitude takes it’s toll on Cal more than Colorado, their ability to make a comeback will be diminished.

Moving on, here’s how I see the pros and cons:
Pros:

• Cal’s offensive scheme can do well when they can be successful on the perimeter, which Colorado is susceptible to.
• Cal is the more talented team overall.
• Cal has shown to be slightly better against the same teams.
• Cal seems better prepared to play 4 quarters.
• Weather is mild today (55 and partly couldy is as good as it gets in mid-November).

Cons:

• Colorado starts the game strong.
• The game is at Colorado which is the best home field advantage in the conference, being at 5000 feet. (Anybody remember how sluggish the Bears were at 4400 feet in SLC last year?)
• Colorado’s defense is statistically stronger across the board

The more I think about it, the big question is, can Cal get the run game working today. Passing over the top is going to be very difficult for Cal at altitude, so Colorado will load up on the short passing game. (This is particularly true since they’re expecting a fair amount of wind today.) But because of the spread nature of the Cal passing game, the way for Cal to neutralize that is to run well between the tackles. And if there is good news, Colorado is by far the weakest team against the run Cal has faced all season. Add to that, that Cal has been getting significantly better running the ball and the offensive line has made real progress, and there’s reason for hope here.

So Cal needs to come out and hit Colorado in the mouth and have success running the ball early and the defense needs to be able to do what it hasn’t all season, get early stops. If Cal can do that, as the game wears on, they have the potential to stretch out a good lead as the game wears on.

If they don’t, if Cal is dependent on the passing game and the defense gives up a couple scores, it’ll still be a tight game, but the attempts at a comeback will fall a bit short. It’ll feel a bit like the Arizona game where the team gets close, but can never quite get over the hump. Every time it looks like the comeback might be real, an exhausted defense will give up something that kills the comeback opportunity.

But I’m going with option A, the Bears come out and hit them in the mouth early and the defense plays what looks like one of their best games of the season (but that will be mostly because of the quality of the competition).

Bears win this key one: 31-20

One of the benefits about late season games is there are often many common opponents to judge. Here’s the Colorado line-up:

Oregon: Cal lost 55-16, Colorado lost 57-16 (odd to share 16 points…)
UCLA: Cal lost 37-10, Colorado lost 45-23
Oregon State: Cal lost 49-17, Colorado lost 44-17 (another common score)
Washington: Cal lost 41-17, Colorado lost 59-7
Arizona: Cal lost 33-28, Colorado lost 44-20

Note, every game had the same home vs. away status except Oregon and Oregon State where they were swapped (Cal played @ Oregon and OSU at home and Colorado played @OSU and Oregon at home).

Overall, the two teams played equivalently in 3 (Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA), Cal had a less horrible blowout vs. Washington (not something to hang one’s hat on) and Cal played Arizona much closer. Slight edge to Cal.

How about based on points:
Cal: 215 against, 88 for
Colorado: 249 against, 83 for
Edge for Cal

Overall conclusion, Cal looks to have a SLIGHT edge in common opponents, but not a whole lot. Definitely not enough to inherently out-weigh the advantage Colorado has playing at home at 5000 feet.

I’m really not looking forward to writing this review. I’m not the type of guy that likes dancing on anyone’s grave and that’s what it would take to be excited about what we’re going to see tomorrow.

Simply put, the Bears are going to get crushed.

USC is and will continue to be the sleeping giant in the conference. They are still hands down the most talented team in the conference, even with the scholarship sanctions. The way the season had been going for the spoiled children, I had hoped I wouldn’t have to focus on the raw talent of USC, because talent is meaningless in football unless it is focused and refined in a team. Kiffin seemed to be doing everything in his power to make sure there was no refining and oddly, despite being very focused personally and seeming to want it for the team, it just seemed they were “focused” like a hyper-active kid on sedatives… can you really call it focus?

Orgeron seems to have been the perfect pick for interim head coach. He’s not going to work miracles, but what he has seemed to do is take the sedative shackles off a very talented bunch and let them go out there and push people around. They seem excited to play and and have a nasty combination of feeling like they have nothing to lose and a take no prisoners attitude.

So here’s how it’s going to go…

The Bears are going to lose BIG in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Expect to see the Bears just looking silly a lot. Big run plays for the Trojans. Tons of time for Kessler to find receivers and big passing plays as coverage breaks down. On the other side, offensive plays for the Bears that are just blown up will be all too frequent and quite cringe worthy. Don’t ever expect the Bears to get in a rhythm.

However, the upside is you’re also going to see a messy game with lots of mistakes. “Duh” would be the response for expecting that of Cal, but USC will make their share of mistakes too. As a result, Cal might get a few big plays to give us hope, perhaps one or two special teams too.. USC might even cough up the ball now and again (I’d call for some easy picks if it weren’t for the fact this Cal secondary is pathetically bad at having a nose for the ball). Cal might get a big sack on a busted assignment or good blitz package. These flashes of hope might even be frequent enough that if the talent differences weren’t so vastly different that it could sway the outcome of the game.

But it won’t be… not even close. It’s just be a couple blips of joy amongst a really tough game to watch. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb: Tomorrow will be the lowest point of the first half of the Dykes era. If you’re a positive person, it means it only gets better from here. If not… well… sorry.

Bears lose big: Cal 13, USC 52

I’ve really toiled in my mind trying to get a sense of how good this Arizona team is. As I mentioned earlier in the week, they are VERY unproven. But unproven doesn’t mean bad.

After looking over a number of things, what scares me is their power running game. If you had asked me before the Washington game, I probably wouldn’t be as scared about that. But the supposed strength of the defense, the run defense, fell apart last week when faced with a tougher running game.

Frankly, this game will be won and lost in the trenches when Cal is on defense. It will also be won and lost based on Cal’s tackling.

If I was the head coach and I had no scrupples, I’d be soaking their Wheaties in testosterone. The more ethical part of me would have been working all week at practice on how to get these guys ready to be nasty in the trenches tomorrow and working on a great speech before the game like Bethea did before the 2003 USC game.

And a big part of why I’d be working my butt off for this one is because this game is REALLY important. Imagine if the Bears lose this one. Then the team isn’t sitting on a lot of confidence going into the following Saturday against a USC that is ripe for a couple more upsets this year. It’s a team that, even if they beat Colorado, will exit the season with no wins to build on. All they could do was beat the doormats.

But let us say that they win tomorrow. Now you’ve got a team that is full of hope. You’ve got a team that believes in itself and has turned a corner. Now you have a team that just might be ready to upset USC the following weekend. And if you pull off that miracle, now we’re looking at a team that could be on a 3-game win streak when they head into the Tin-Bowl on the farm, into the Big Game where anything can happen… particularly to a 2-loss Stanford team that at that point will be locked into the Alamo bowl no matter what (Yes, I’m predicting Oregon beats Stanford). And even if it doesn’t get quite that far, the Bears will have at least one win to feel good about going into the off-season.

As for the other side of the ball, I think the Cal offense has been showing signs of slowly re-working things to get productive again. The offense that was scoring 30+ points a game is still there, hiding between the mistakes and miscues. I also think there might be some hope for the running game to see some improvement. They won’t be great. But they might at least force Arizona to give it a little defensive attention. I think the offensive line configuration is better, but it has taken them a game, and may take them part of tomorrow’s game, to gel. I think Goff will do much better at home.

Yet at the same time, at best I see them giving a performance like the Northwestern game. Still too sloppy and still hurting themselves with mistakes and miscues. I worry that even if the yardage numbers go back up, we’ll still be kicking too many field goals when in the redzone. This team just hasn’t really turned the corner yet.

So to recap:

• This game couldn’t be more important.
• I have a feeling the offense gets better this week.
• It will be won and lost based on Cal’s toughness in the front-seven against Arizona’s power run game.

But through all that, I’m just not ready to call for the upset.

Final score: Cal 27, Arizona 31

The first thing I do when looking at an upcoming opponent is to look at their schedule. But the biggest mistake is to just look at their record. Yeah Arizona is 5-2, but who did they beat? So far Utah at home is their most impressive win.

The one common opponent, both at Washington, at first glance seems to be fairly similar. They lost 13-31. We lost 17-41. Except with 5 minutes left in the 3rd, Arizona scored to make it a 5-point game and the Huskies put down the hammer from there. By that point in the game for Cal it was 7-38. Then we put up some garbage time points. So there’s no doubt Arizona played Washington tougher than Cal did.

Nevertheless, Arizona has fattened up on pretty weak teams, teams that for the most part it is reasonable to think the Bears would have beaten as well, with the possible exception of Utah. Cal obviously beats NAU and UTSA. We mostly seem to believe Cal can beat Colorado. Would a game at UNLV been a win for the Bears? Probably. Particularly early in the season.

Hopefully the Bears can bring one of their better performances this Saturday, because based on their schedule/performance so far, I think Arizona is not nearly as good as their record indicates and the Bears may have a shot at beating them.

I’ve said multiple times that I think the talent on this Bears team is high enough that there’s a good chance they surprise someone this year. That magical game where everything just clicks happens now and again for under-performing teams. Long time Cal fans have seen it many times. Last year against UCLA was a good example. Holmoe had a few. So did Gilby. Joe Kapp made it a Big Game specialty (as a coach).

But the trick is finding the right game to predict it. Wins over Arizona or Colorado wouldn’t be it, in my humble opinion. Those are both games we’d BETTER be competitive in. So that leaves Washington, USC and Stanford.

USC is a mess and figuring them out is nearly impossible. They’re under-performing even worse than the Bears. They could kick the crud out of our beloved Bears or just as easily be the big upset. Stanford is pretty dang good and seems like a long-shot, although anything can happen in the Big Game.

But is it UW?

There are few indicators that suggest it might be. For starters, UW’s offense is not exactly lighting it up. In particular, their passing game has been pretty weak. Price has been OK, but nothing spectacular. Also, it’s an offense that is more traditional, one that is closer to the traditional offense that the traditional 4-3 was designed to beat. (At least when Price doesn’t run the ball.) That they’re towards the top of the conference in rushing yards seems to play right into the one area of the Cal defense that hasn’t been hugely exploited.

Also, confidence on the team can’t be that high. They survived the losses to Stanford and Oregon in tact, but the 24-53 beat down by Arizona State has to have taken it’s toll. As for the Bears, I think they’ve reached that “nothing to lose” point in a disastrous season.

So overall, there are reasons for hope tonight. However, to be balanced, the more troublesome is their defense, which has been pretty good. Their pass defense is their best unit, which will probably keep the Bears in check. If they have a weakness, it’s their rush defense, but considering that is inflated by playing Oregon already and we haven’t exactly been lighting it up on the ground, it doesn’t give me a lot of hope.

So by the numbers, the Bears should lose. Our history in Husky Stadium in recent years only makes hope more dim. But as I’ve said before, throw the trends out the window. This isn’t Tedford’s team that Sarkesian knew like the back of his hand how to beat. Tosh’s inside knowledge is no longer of use.

So this could be it. This could be the game. If the Bears can get their passing attack working and then get the ground game working behind it, the Bears could have a shot.

Final score: Bears 23, Washington 30

I’m not THAT bold.

For most of the season I’ve been preaching how using past trends is a mistake as EVERYTHING is different about this Bears team. However, there is one thing that these Bears have in common with the Tedford Bears: Their passing game is mostly an underneath, high percentage passing game.

While the nature of how the underneath passing worked are different and their strategies for how the run game is integrated into it is different, generally speaking, if the opposition could/can take away the underneath passing game, or even turn it into a lower percentage game, the Bears were/are in trouble. Considering this is the reason that Tedford’s Bears struggled so mightily against Oregon State in years past, it’s a very bad omen for tonight’s game.

See, Oregon State lives and dies by their press coverage. You want to know why Oregon State has a surprising number of embarrassing losses to FCS and other low-end teams while still being very competitive later in the same season? Because they don’t change their defensive philosophy, particularly at the beginning of the season, for their personnel. The stubbornly stick with their press-coverage philosophy. As new DB’s come in, particularly early in the season, they get burned. As the season wears on, the good coaching (and Oregon State has an EXCELLENT technique coaching staff) and sometimes minor adjustments to make up for weak spots, makes them far less vulnerable. And once less vulnerable, their press coverage scheme is very effective.

So, the big question is, can the Bear Raid beat the press coverage. My guess is no. If the Bears put up points today it’ll be by going over the top. And for that to work, three things will have to happen: 1. The offensive line will have to hold up to Oregon State’s relentless press-based pass rush. 2. Goff will have to start throwing over the top with the accuracy we saw against Northwestern and has mostly been absent since. 3. Dykes and company will have to have a game-plan that calls for a fair amount of plays well suited to throwing over the top. I have strong hopes #3 could happen. It wouldn’t be out of the question for #2 to happen. #1 is the weak link in the plan.

Perhaps if the defense could up its game a bit, and keep this a lower scoring affair, there would be just enough big plays out of the offense to make it a game. And actually, if the Bears can stay in their 2 safety zone coverages and disguise well when they aren’t going to be in that formation, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the defense have a better than expected game. Mannion might be having a great season, but what I’ve seen thus far doesn’t overly scare me. Looking at the schedule (EWU, Hawaii, Utah, SDSU, Colorado, WSU) it’s not exactly like he’s come up against a defensive juggernaut yet. Of course the big catch is… let’s see raised hands on who thinks the Bears are/could be a defensive juggernaut…. I didn’t think so.

Thus my overall prediction is that the Bears get a few shots over the top, a few mostly futile trips into the redzone, but the defense can’t keep the Beavers in check in part because Buh refuses to give up the defensive formations that are killing the Bears.

Final score: Bears 24, Beavers 37

As I’ve said before, under Tedford’s regime WSU was the one game a year (outside of any FCS match-up) I always had 100% confidence the Bears would win. Tedford’s philosophical approach to offense was to find ways to create mismatches on the field. He used a number of techniques to do this, but in the end he succeeded and failed based on whether he accomplished his match-up goals. With WSU, the talent differentials, particularly in the trenches, made it EXTREMELY easy for him to get favorable match-ups.

But Dykes does not look at football in the same way.

Don’t get me wrong, every football coach likes having a talent advantage on the field. It’s just that certain schemes are better suited for it than others. And Dykes scheme comes from a school of philosophy where it is assumed you don’t have a talent advantage. Said another way, there’s a reason the USC’s of the world don’t use this sort of offense.

The other big thing we have going today is that we have mentor vs. mentee. Dykes’ father, Spike was Leach’s predecessor at Texas Tech and Dyke’s was Leach’s assistant coach both at Kentucky and at Texas Tech. To say they’ve crossed paths before is a massive understatement.

But who has the advantage? It’s not always the mentor. In fact, often the mentee has the advantage of knowing how the mentor thinks inside and out and then bringing their own thoughts to the table of which the mentor can sometimes be clueless, particularly when they’re very strong-headed (Leach, strong-headed? Now THERE’S an understatement!).

And frankly, I think in the end, this is the thing that has pushed me over the edge as to which way the game will go.

Dykes will be able to well communicate to Buh what the keys to stopping Leach’s system will be and Buh will have the talent to do it, particularly in the trenches. Today the defensive line will be FAR more disruptive than in any game yet this season. The pass coverage won’t be brilliant, but it will contain things overall, and might just get a couple of extra interceptions from being inside the head of Leach. Combined with the Cal win in the trenches, I don’t see WSU putting up a ton of points.

As for the offense, I think Cal looks good today. The Bear Raid includes a lot of ideas that aren’t in the Air Raid. Cal’s offensive line problems won’t look so bad today against WSU’s defensive line. The speed of Bigelow will have an impact. The tempo and pace will wear WSU down more than the previous opponents. As long as Goff doesn’t throw a bunch of interceptions, and I do think that’s more of a risk today with the similar minds on the other sideline, we should see a pretty balanced Cal attack.

I think we see a relatively close one early, but Cal opens it up a bit in the 2nd half and never looks back.

Final score: Cal 41 – WSU 27

(Sorry for the lack of posts. I briefly considered temporarily turning this blog into an America’s Cup blog for the two weeks in between the games, but I didn’t. Yet that’s where my focus has been, so no Cal posts.)

Bad news… I’ve been all too accurate in predicting doom for the Bears in the right games this season and my DOOOOOOM meter is off the charts today.

Traditionally the Bears have played Oregon tough. In the early Tedford years Cal beat Oregon more often than anyone else and even when they didn’t, always played them close. The victories in 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2008 drove Duck fans nuts because overall they were the better team. In 2010, despite losing, Cal held Oregon to their lowest total in the Kelly era outside of his very first game. Think about that… in 4 years, nobody, not even the national champions, held them to a lower score.

So there is a temptation to think the Bears might just find some mojo tonight.

But the fundamental problem is the defense. And in this instance, the problem I’m going to highlight isn’t even the technique and experience/talent weaknesses that have plagued the Bears on defense in 2013.

See, the reason Cal did so well against Oregon is that it’s defense in years past, was built to beat teams like Oregon. It was a forward looking defense, even back when it was a 4-3, it had the newest spread offenses in mind at it’s most fundamental level.

This years defense is fundamentally built to beat a power Big-10 team.

So here’s my prediction on defense: The Bears will actually be vastly improved over weeks past. We’re not going to give up 21 points, just for giggles, to start the game. For those looking at the details, the defense will be far more fundamentally sound. Tackling will be better. Gap assignments will be better. Movement to the ball will be better. The bye week will have worked magic both in terms of who’s on the field and how well they’re playing. If you watch closely, there will be lots of reasons for hope.

But it won’t make a lick of difference in the final score.

This defense is going to be run ragged all over the field. They’ll be able to get some (and I emphasize only some) stops early, but by the mid-2nd quarter will be completely gassed and this game will get away from them. The big plays will start to pile up after an early game where Oregon’s offense is effective, marching the ball down the field most of the time, but not running wild and somewhat held in check.

And to make matters worse for the defense, when the offense fails, it’ll be putting them back on the field so fast they won’t know what hit them… or should I say what ran by them.

If there’s some good news, I expect the offense to execute fairly well today. I was tempted to think that Oregon will be all too used to seeing a spread offense and thus will shut Cal down. After further reflection, the differences between the Oregon spread and the Bear raid are so significant, that I don’t see any meaningful advantage for Oregon in this regard.

Since the bye week will have been very good for this young offense as well, I expect to see them executing well in Autzen tonight, particularly considering their fast paced offense should be mostly immune to the noise in Autzen that paralyzes so many teams. In fact, I’ve got my hopes that the offense might just be good enough early to give us some hope that Cal might win this in a shoot out.

But in the end, Oregon’s offense will operate at a far higher level and our defense will get really tired. Bears lose again: 31-55

I wish I had better news to report, but the Bears are going to get skunked today. I was nearly appalled reading some of the comments over at California Golden Blogs… yeah they somewhat admitted they were using wishful thinking, but it bordered on delusional. I take that back, it had well crossed over the line into delusional.

The Cal defense stinks. The game starts and ends right there. Even if by some miracle the Bear offense clicks today, which I’m not sitting on a ton of confidence about, we lose this in a shootout. Last year the defense kept Cal in the game, but this is not last year’s defense. Last year’s defense had an NFL minded defensive coordinator with lots of juniors and seniors who had a number of years in his system. It was a defense that was far more sophisticated than Ohio State was used to. Add in the speed of that D, and it kept Cal in the game despite offensive struggled.

This year we have an old-school Big-10 defense, the type that Ohio State schooled all last season going 12-0 with ease (the Cal games was one of their toughest, ironically) and players who are both young and new to the system. Plus we’re decimated… heck technically we’re quadruple decimated… by injuries.

So, the only way Cal wins this game is by winning a shootout where both defenses look pathetic.

And while I’ve got a lot of hope for this offense in the long run, it’s just not clicking enough yet to do that. It struggled against a far less physically talented and less dominating in the trenches Northwestern. It just couldn’t get in rhythm. I think it’ll be even worse today with Cal’s weak offensive line getting pushed around by Ohio State. The defense will be able to come up and play press coverage to take away all the short stuff knowing the Goff just won’t have the time in the pocket to throw over the top.

Don’t get me wrong, the Bears will score some points, but not enough to win a shootout.

Final score will be an embarrassing: 23-52

Continuing to save myself time by using this post from last year and will continue using it for future years

The Bears are playing [city name] State tomorrow, in the [week] of the season. It’s interesting how these games never seem to be on the first week of the season.

There’s not much to say about this game. The Bears should win easily. And unless the game is close, we won’t be able to tell anything about whether the Bears have improved over their disappointing performance over [non-conference team we shouldn’t have lost to] the previous week (new for 2013 commentary: lol… how bad is it that that line still works this year?).

I expect to see a heavy dose of [running back name] today. I also expect to see a very vanilla offensive and defense today. I also expect we’ll get to see a lot of backups playing in the second half. This might be the [only or last] time this year we get to see [backup quarterback] playing. That might be the most interesting thing we’ll see tomorrow.

Final score: Cal: [random number between 50 and 59], [city name] State: [random number between 6 and 17]

It’s been a long time since I’ve not had a clear opinion of what was going to happen on game day. I mean, sometimes I would think “if X happens, the Bears will win, otherwise they lose” so I’d be uncomfortable making an uncaveated prediction, but not since the day Tedford took over have I been so unsure of what to expect.

And that’s the key phrase: ‘since the day Tedford took over’

New coaches are the biggest wildcard in all of college football. It doesn’t matter if they did really well at a previous school. It doesn’t matter if they have experience in your own conference. It doesn’t matter if they are an internal promotion from a coordinator position. It doesn’t matter how talented or experienced the team he takes over is. No matter what, it’s always a wildcard when a new regime takes over. Sometimes internal promotions work out great (Shaw, Kelly) sometimes they don’t (Holmoe). Sometimes external promotions work out great (Tedford (at first)), sometimes the Peter principle comes into play. Sometimes getting them from the NFL works great (Pete Carroll), sometimes not so much (Kiffin). Sometimes grabbing from a lower tier school is great (Harbaugh, Urban Meyer (from Utah)), but that Peter principle is always lurking (just about every coach who left Boise State). Even lateral transfers have their perils (Willmingham to Notre Dame).

If that weren’t challenging enough, the Bears also have the second biggest wildcard: a young team. While generally speaking, a young team is considered a bad thing, history is not as clear, particularly with a highly recruited one, and we see this in some of the language/questions used. The most notable example is “rebuild or reload?”, an implicit admission that not all young teams are bad. Or there’s the concept of the “sophomore slump” when a QB has a great freshman season but can’t duplicate it in his sophomore year.

All of this is a long way of saying that this is a very difficult game to predict. That aside, I will now bravely wade into these uncharted waters:

Starting with Northwestern, I don’t think this team is as good as their #22 ranking nor their 10-3 2012 record indicates. Last year was a very easy year for them. Their 4-game non-conference match-ups were full of weaker teams and the most marque name, Boston College, had a very weak year. I guess one shouldn’t overlook that both Syracuse and Vanderbuilt were better than their traditional positions last year, but still, they were no juggernauts. When one looks at the conference slate, they missed two of the three best teams from the other division (Ohio State and Wisconsin), and didn’t beat anyone in the conference with a better conference record than 3-5. The best thing about their conference record, frankly, is that they took Michigan to overtime, and played a nail biter with Nebraska, despite losing them both.

In addition, a big part of what made Northwestern’s success is that they’re ahead of the curve in the Big-10 in going away from a power-run offense. It made them more difficult to defend in the big, corn-fed linemen conference that is the Big-10. Yet while being ahead of the curve in the Big-10 is a bonus for them back home, over here in the Pac-12, their offense is pretty run of the mill. Said another way, there’s nothing that Northwestern will throw at Cal that they haven’t seen before.

Thus there’s no reason to believe that Cal can’t beat Northwestern. If this was the 2011 Bears or the 2008-2009 Bears, I’d easily be predicting a victory.

That said, my gut says that the combination of such and young team and a new scheme is going to be a real challenge in the first game. This isn’t week 2 or 3, it’s week 1. The team grows more between weeks 1 and 2 than during any other week of the year, doubly so for young teams. So even if it was just a case of a young Cal team playing a familiar scheme versus an experienced Northwestern, I would have my concerns. But when one adds on the new scheme, on BOTH sides of the ball, in week 1, I just find it too hard to ignore.

All of that is a long way of saying that I’m going to go against the grain of both Cal fans and of the pundits I usually read (including Ted Miller, who has DOOOOOMED us by picking us to win), and say that Cal comes out on the losing end of this one. It’ll be entertaining. It’ll be encouraging. It’ll be a breath of fresh air. We’ll ultimately feel good about the future and see the potential. But a handful of defensive mistakes that results in big plays, too many drives where the offense can’t get in rhythm and perhaps an extra turnover or two that young teams are known for doom the Bears in this one.

Final score: Cal 33, Northwestern 42

Now that we’ve got the depressing stuff out of the way, here is why I have optimism:

• There’s lot’s of talent on this team: When most struggling teams get a new coach, one of the first things the pundits do is try to tamper optimism. “Turn arounds take time.” And they point at teams like WSU and Colorado or even ones that have shown success like Kansas State, South Carolina, Michigan State or even Dykes’ previous school LA Tech, all of which took at least a couple years before the wins started coming. But one of the things they overlook is part of what takes time is gathering talent. If one goes looking for teams that had a down turn but had lots of talent, one often sees very quick turn arounds. UCLA and ASU last year are examples of that. Frankly, our beloved Cal benefited from that when Tedford took over. For all of Holmoe’s problems, one thing he did pretty well is identify under-appreciated talent and also convincing at least a few recruits that “shouldn’t have” come to Cal that Berkeley was the place to be (such as Boller). In any case, this year’s Cal team more fits the 2002 Bears or the 2012 UCLA team than it does the Colorado or WSU mold.
• Jared Goff looks like the real deal: Both from seeing high school footage and seeing snippets from practice, it sure looks like he’s the real deal. The only negative I hear about him is that he doesn’t have “a cannon” of an arm. If that’s all they have against him, I’m pretty excited. Most high school QB’s that have “a cannon” end up sucking in college. They have problems developing touch, bouncing balls off receivers hands and unable to drop a ball into a small window. They learned in high school they could make up for all sins by rocketing it in there and that just doesn’t work at the next level. In contrast, those without that crutch in high school actually tend to learn better fundamentals, better quick decision making and seem better at anticipating how things are going to develop. Plus, when your early-enrolling QB is throwing the least INTs in practice of all the QBs and is the only one who can somewhat consistently throw a ball in the garbage can (it’s a drill they do), that’s an exciting/promising sign. This team is stocked with elite 11 QBs and if the new guy is outplaying them, he’s got to be pretty good.
• Sonny Dykes’ system looks pretty leading edge without being gimmicky: There have been a lot of different offensive systems in college football that have come and go. Some worked for a few years. Some worked for a long time, but were eventually dismissed. Still others changed the game forever and even new systems integrate what was innovative from the original. I think it is a challenge when a new system comes along to tell what you’re looking at. Is it a gimmick that will be ‘solved’ in a few years? Or does it have some staying power? Yet with that caveat aside, when I look at what I’ve seen from this system it sure feels to me like the next logical step in what the Air-Raid spread (as opposed to the read-option spread) promises, and integrates some of the best ideas that came from the read-option spread (pace of play in particular). Said another way, Cal won’t be running the same plays that the conference has seen from Oregon or even WSU. As WSU has shown, running plays that the conference now has experience defending, but at a novice level, doesn’t work well. We’re not going to out-Oregon, Oregon. And the good news is that it doesn’t look like we’re trying to. It looks like we’re running a system that forces the defense to make tough choices and be reactive in lose-lose situations. It also looks like at the same time that it isn’t overly complicated and is tailored to college players who have to go to school in other things besides the huge playbook.
• The game won’t be over before halftime: One of the things that truly frustrated me about the end of the Tedford years was that there was ZERO ability to recover from a slow start to a game. Tedford always talked about how important it was to “start strong”. The reason was we were doomed if we ever got 2 scores down. That team just had so little ability to come back from a deficit. The clock would look like it was smoking it ran down so fast in the 2nd half, with both the opposition trying to run down the clock and Tedford’s offense poorly built to conserve it. Dykes’ system is the polar opposite. If I have one piece of advice worth listening to, it is this: If you’re the type who likes to leave early, don’t! You’re going to miss some wild endings under the new regime.
• Tedford’s “cursed games” are no more:In the middle of the schedule there’s a stretch of games that, for those of us accustomed to the patterns of the Tedford years, scare the crud out of us. UCLA in LA? Just about un-winnable, right? Oregon State in Berkeley? That’s where all of Cal disasters start, right Riley? UW in Washington? That where dreams go to die, or is it freeze? We’re DOOOOOMED! The problem with that sort of thinking is that it overlooks that the particulars of how Tedford ran things were what made those trends. For most teams, Oregon State wasn’t nearly the hurdle it was to us. Plenty of teams didn’t seem to collapse whenever inside the confines of the Rose Bowl stadium nor when making a trip to Husky stadium. We need to purge from our mind the patterns of Tedford. Thus, there are more winnable games in the middle of the schedule than people think.
• After a tough start, Cal will be battle tested for a strong conference run: There’s no doubt that 3 of the first 4 games are a real challenge. But after that Cal gets WSU at home, a very winnable game, before entering the stretch I mention above. I think UCLA takes a step back this year and Washington doesn’t make the jump to elite status (and hopefully that will have sunk in on their team by the time we get to them). So, if one wants to take the positive road, if Cal can pull the upset over Northwestern on Saturday, something we’ve got a shot at (the Pac-12 always does well against the usually one-dimensional B10), we’ll be 2-2 after the opening stretch. With a strong performance, Cal could win all of the next 5, but let’s say they drop one to UCLA/UW/OSU. The team would be 6-3 and have a lot of confidence going into the final tough stretch. While I still hold out hope that the early games will bear fruit in November against USC and Stanford and we could pull at least one upset, even if they don’t, I won’t be unhappy with 7-5 with a win against Colorado in between those two tough games.

In summary, looking at both this post and the prior one, I say the glass is half full.

GO BEARS!

What do you want first, the good news or the bad news?

That wasn’t really a question, but just a way to do introduce that this is the first of a pair of posts, the first about our issues going into this year, and the second being the reasons to be optimistic. Since I’d like to finish on a positive note, let’s start with the bad:

• True Freshman QB: The history of true freshmen quarterbacks is littered with highly touted, highly ranked recruits who’s last moment looking good is when trotting onto the field before the first snap. After that, it’s all downhill, the young man often permanently scarred going through such a painful season, never to recover, never to be heard from again except in cautionary tales by bloggers who’ve been around for a while. And while I’ve got some reason for optimism (for another post), there’s no denying that Jared Goff is battling odds that are stacked heavily against him.
• The injuries seems to be piling up early: Every team sustains injuries during fall practice, but it feels like the body count is a bit high at this point. The result is that you’re going to see a lot of new and young faces on Saturday. RS Freshmen Steven Moore starting at Right Tackle (Ouch!) with Bill Tyndall out, Hardy Nickerson at middle linebacker with Nick Forbes not healthy yet, and Damariay Drew at strong safety if Avery Sabastian can’t play on Saturday. And that doesn’t cover the lesser player injuries.
• Young offensive line: As mentioned above, there will be a RS Freshman offensive linemen starting on Saturday who we didn’t expect, but in addition to that, we’ve got another RS Freshman on the right side (guard Matt Cochran). While the left side looks stronger with Tagaloa and Rigsbee, they’re both only sophomores and our lone upper-classman, Adcock at center, hasn’t exactly impressed me (yet). If there’s good news, 2014, and 2015 in particular, look very strong with a lot of experience. But this year there’s going to be a lot of growing pains.
• New systems don’t take hold over night: I’ve been doing my best to understand the pros and cons of Dykes’ offensive system and I’ve still got a lot to learn. But one thing I know for sure is that this system is about as different as one can get from Tedford’s system. There’s just no way they’re going to be operating at 100% efficiency, particularly in the 1st game. To pile on top of that, while I was pretty soft on the defensive change to the 4-3 in my earlier post, it would have been nice if the defense wasn’t going through an overhaul as well, at least for 2013.
• The worst possible schedule for a young team: A young team does best when they ease into their schedule. If I could have dictated the schedule for this year, I would have played Colorado State to open the season, then our FCS team, then Maryland or Rutgers (or similar). After that I would want to see Colorado, then Arizona, then moving up to a tougher team like Oregon State and Washington, then a bit of relief with a game like WSU, then USC and Oregon, then the other one of UW and OSU, before wrapping up with Stanford. Or in way of summary, back-load, but don’t OVER back-load. Instead we get a ‘returning just about everyone from a 10-3 team’ Northwestern, #2 Ohio State and #3 Oregon in the 1st 4 games. After that, things look a lot better, but it sure would be nice to have gotten some easier games early.

That’s what on the top of my list anyway.

This was one of my favorite lines from My Cousin Vinny long before Utah joined the conference…

(sorry for the poor quality video… Best I could find quickly)

It’s been pretty surprising to me to see how quickly both the fan and pundit impression of the Bears have changed, and multiple times at that.

The Bears were done for after the first two games.  Then they played a close one against tOSU and all of a sudden they just might be able to beat USC (despite the fact that USC was probably better than tOSU).  Then the Bears lose to USC, as was to be expected even if an upset was possible, and the Bears were terrible again.  They were even more terrible after the loss to ASU (I’ve got no excuses for that one).

Then there was the VERY pleasant surprising dominant win over UCLA and the bandwagon was officially open for business again.  It gained even more steam after an all too easy win over WSU.

Then came the Big Game beat down and all of a sudden the question is just how terrible the Bears are.  Utah is all of a sudden a better team.

Look… maybe, just maybe, the Bears are just mediocre.  Nothing more complicated than that.  Mediocre teams can on occasion play a good game, some times even getting the upset, but most of the time they lose to the best teams.  (tOSU, USC, Stanford)  Sometimes it is ugly.

When mediocre teams play other mediocre teams, sometimes they win, sometimes they lose.  Sometimes all the breaks go their way and they win pretty big and sometimes it is exactly the opposite (ASU, UCLA, Nevada)

But when mediocre teams play crummy teams they win almost all the time and they make it look like they are better than they are.  Ocassionally they play a bad game and lose to a crummy team, but it is the exception, not the rule.

So I ask you, is 2-5 Utah a crummy team or a mediocre team?

I say crummy. They have been man handled by every team in the conference they have played, including the same UCLA team Cal handled easily.  They also lost far worse to ASU than Cal did.  The fact that their low score loss to OSU is considered progress further underlines how they are on the wrong side of mediocre.

People will bring up that they went 0-4 in conference last year before going on a run… but that was AFTER Cal made easy work of them to put them at 0-4 in conference.  Cal showed last year who has the better players and not much has changed since last year.

To the game itself…

The gameplan for this one is the same as it was for WSU and it will work again:  win this one at the line of scrimmage with superior athletes.  (The fact that we has the same gameplan against Stanford… well that is why Tedford’s job is at stake.)

But make no mistake, Cal is the better team and as long as they show up to play with a reasonable amount of heart (which I expect), the Bears should win.

Final score: Bears 27, Utes (what is a Ute?) 13

Sorry for the lack of posts this week. I know it’s Big Game week, but it doesn’t FEEL like Big Game week, does it?

There’s a lot to discuss in this week’s preview, so let’s get right to it.

The first thing I want to bring to everyone’s attention is the obvious… although plenty of people seem to be ignoring it. Last year’s score was Stanford 31, Cal 28. Last year the Bears proved that when the brought their best effort, they were very close to Stanford in their ability to execute.

Thus the question one has to ask is how the teams have changed since last year. Stanford lost Andrew Luck and has tightened things up a bit on defense. Their offensive line is still strong, but has taken a little bit of a step back. But they don’t have Andrew Luck.

The Bears on the other hand have improved their wide receiver play, have replaced their losses on defense for the most part, but due to injury have struggled a bit on the offensive line. In other words, the team is about where it was last year.

So we’ve got one team that has lost a critical player and has taken a step back and one team that is basically in the same shape it was last year. And who is favored here?

OK, I get it. Stanford wasn’t all about Andrew Luck. But their ability to put up points both at home and on the road was a lot more dependent on Andrew Luck than people are giving them credit for. Last year’s lowest score: 28 points (at home vs. Notre Dame). This year they’ve only reached 28 in two of their six games (Duke and Arizona). They have yet to score an offensive touchdown on the road. Andrew Luck’s Stanford would NEVER have let that happen.

Then there’s the little matter of the quality of their wins: San Jose State, Duke, USC and Arizona. Other than USC, there’s no team on the list that Cal wouldn’t be favored against.

Which brings us to our one common opponent, USC. Of course it is easy to look at their 21-14 victory and our 9-27 loss and say that Stanford is a better team, and it’s not entirely dismissable, but there are a lot of caveats.

First of all, that was one sloppy game between USC and Stanford. 3 interceptions in 3 plays? (2 by Barkley) Ridiculous. (and a 4th 5 plays later.) USC played a horrible game and I’m not sure if you play it again that Stanford wins. Secondly, one was in the comfy confines of Stanford stadium, while Cal had to go to the Coliseum. Finally, Stanford clearly has some voodoo curse on USC the same way Oregon State does on Cal ever since 2006. It’s a mistake to judge either USC or Stanford based on their matchup. Stanford’s struggles since then and USC’s victories (including over the common opponent that Stanford lost to, Washington) are proof of that.

Before I oversell Cal’s chances in this game, let’s get to where this game will be won… In the trenches. And I think both defenses will have the advantage.

Cal’s defensive line has improved steadily this season and there’s good reason to think they’ll hold their own against Stanford’s offensive line. I think this is particularly true because Cal doesn’t need a ‘win’ but more a stalemate in this battle. Stanford’s one-dimensional team is not going to be all that successful throwing the ball. Nunez has struggled on the road so far and I think he’ll throw a bunch of picks to Cal if Shaw takes the handcuffs off of him. I expect to see a heavy does of Taylor up the middle tomorrow. Thus Cal doesn’t have to win… just plug everything up and limit the inside run game.

Things don’t fare as well on the other side of the ball. Stanford’s front seven has the talent to cause MASSIVE trouble for the Bears. Our offensive line is getting better, but is still a work in progress. One has to believe that Stanford will win that battle handily.

The way I see it, the keys to victory is for Cal to mimic what it did against UCLA on offense. The ball needs to come out quick and they need to get REALLY diverse with their play calling. ‘Running Stanford’s front seven ragged’ should be the constant goal.

Can Cal do it? Yes, they CAN… but whether they will is a far more difficult question to answer. I’m expecting either a low scoring affair that could go either way or a low Stanford score and Cal wins going away, a-la UCLA.

Let’s be optimistic again and assume Stanford scores what they have in the last two road games and Cal scores the lower of their two scores in the last two weeks: Cal 31, Stanford 13