(Written by kencraw)

For most of the season I’ve been preaching how using past trends is a mistake as EVERYTHING is different about this Bears team. However, there is one thing that these Bears have in common with the Tedford Bears: Their passing game is mostly an underneath, high percentage passing game.

While the nature of how the underneath passing worked are different and their strategies for how the run game is integrated into it is different, generally speaking, if the opposition could/can take away the underneath passing game, or even turn it into a lower percentage game, the Bears were/are in trouble. Considering this is the reason that Tedford’s Bears struggled so mightily against Oregon State in years past, it’s a very bad omen for tonight’s game.

See, Oregon State lives and dies by their press coverage. You want to know why Oregon State has a surprising number of embarrassing losses to FCS and other low-end teams while still being very competitive later in the same season? Because they don’t change their defensive philosophy, particularly at the beginning of the season, for their personnel. The stubbornly stick with their press-coverage philosophy. As new DB’s come in, particularly early in the season, they get burned. As the season wears on, the good coaching (and Oregon State has an EXCELLENT technique coaching staff) and sometimes minor adjustments to make up for weak spots, makes them far less vulnerable. And once less vulnerable, their press coverage scheme is very effective.

So, the big question is, can the Bear Raid beat the press coverage. My guess is no. If the Bears put up points today it’ll be by going over the top. And for that to work, three things will have to happen: 1. The offensive line will have to hold up to Oregon State’s relentless press-based pass rush. 2. Goff will have to start throwing over the top with the accuracy we saw against Northwestern and has mostly been absent since. 3. Dykes and company will have to have a game-plan that calls for a fair amount of plays well suited to throwing over the top. I have strong hopes #3 could happen. It wouldn’t be out of the question for #2 to happen. #1 is the weak link in the plan.

Perhaps if the defense could up its game a bit, and keep this a lower scoring affair, there would be just enough big plays out of the offense to make it a game. And actually, if the Bears can stay in their 2 safety zone coverages and disguise well when they aren’t going to be in that formation, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the defense have a better than expected game. Mannion might be having a great season, but what I’ve seen thus far doesn’t overly scare me. Looking at the schedule (EWU, Hawaii, Utah, SDSU, Colorado, WSU) it’s not exactly like he’s come up against a defensive juggernaut yet. Of course the big catch is… let’s see raised hands on who thinks the Bears are/could be a defensive juggernaut…. I didn’t think so.

Thus my overall prediction is that the Bears get a few shots over the top, a few mostly futile trips into the redzone, but the defense can’t keep the Beavers in check in part because Buh refuses to give up the defensive formations that are killing the Bears.

Final score: Bears 24, Beavers 37