(Written by kencraw)

I’ve said multiple times that I think the talent on this Bears team is high enough that there’s a good chance they surprise someone this year. That magical game where everything just clicks happens now and again for under-performing teams. Long time Cal fans have seen it many times. Last year against UCLA was a good example. Holmoe had a few. So did Gilby. Joe Kapp made it a Big Game specialty (as a coach).

But the trick is finding the right game to predict it. Wins over Arizona or Colorado wouldn’t be it, in my humble opinion. Those are both games we’d BETTER be competitive in. So that leaves Washington, USC and Stanford.

USC is a mess and figuring them out is nearly impossible. They’re under-performing even worse than the Bears. They could kick the crud out of our beloved Bears or just as easily be the big upset. Stanford is pretty dang good and seems like a long-shot, although anything can happen in the Big Game.

But is it UW?

There are few indicators that suggest it might be. For starters, UW’s offense is not exactly lighting it up. In particular, their passing game has been pretty weak. Price has been OK, but nothing spectacular. Also, it’s an offense that is more traditional, one that is closer to the traditional offense that the traditional 4-3 was designed to beat. (At least when Price doesn’t run the ball.) That they’re towards the top of the conference in rushing yards seems to play right into the one area of the Cal defense that hasn’t been hugely exploited.

Also, confidence on the team can’t be that high. They survived the losses to Stanford and Oregon in tact, but the 24-53 beat down by Arizona State has to have taken it’s toll. As for the Bears, I think they’ve reached that “nothing to lose” point in a disastrous season.

So overall, there are reasons for hope tonight. However, to be balanced, the more troublesome is their defense, which has been pretty good. Their pass defense is their best unit, which will probably keep the Bears in check. If they have a weakness, it’s their rush defense, but considering that is inflated by playing Oregon already and we haven’t exactly been lighting it up on the ground, it doesn’t give me a lot of hope.

So by the numbers, the Bears should lose. Our history in Husky Stadium in recent years only makes hope more dim. But as I’ve said before, throw the trends out the window. This isn’t Tedford’s team that Sarkesian knew like the back of his hand how to beat. Tosh’s inside knowledge is no longer of use.

So this could be it. This could be the game. If the Bears can get their passing attack working and then get the ground game working behind it, the Bears could have a shot.

Final score: Bears 23, Washington 30

I’m not THAT bold.