Northwestern game preview
(Written by kencraw)
The first thing one sees when one digs in to what is happening at Northwestern is a distracted team, full of controversy. They’re of course the epicenter of the players rights movement, where the players sued for the right to unionize. That’s been a big story all summer and one can’t help but think that it affected their focus and cohesion as a team (coaches included). The 2nd headline on the site I visit for news is “Union talk fades as Northwestern begins”. One thing I’ve grown quite confident about is that if the headline is “Team not distracted by X” you can take it to the bank that they’re distracted.
But it doesn’t end there. First their starting running back is suspended for 2 games for breaking team rules. Then he decides he wants to be closer to home and transfers to Texas A&M. Then their leading receiver from 2013 went down with a season ending knee injury.
This is NOT a team that is coming into the season firing on all cylinders.
So we have a Cal team that could have won the game last year had their true freshman not thrown 3 key interceptions in the 2nd half of the game, and a Northwestern team that appears to be reeling. Plus, last year Northwestern was ranked 22nd and was coming to Berkeley with a lot of confidence. They don’t come into this season with any high expectations.
How much more evidence do I need that this game should go the Bears way?
Well, apparently I need more than that. My gut just can’t shake the idea that the Bears aren’t as good as they need to be. As much as I want the offensive line and the secondary to make the big leap the team needs them to make, what I’m hearing so far isn’t giving me comfort, particularly on the road where offensive lines can struggle with crowd noise. In my mind there’s almost a “they protest too much” factor. I just keeping hearing over and over how improved they are. At some point one can’t help wonder why they’re working so hard to sell us on the idea.
Speaking broadly, my gut is the defense loses this one for the Bears, giving up too many big plays and the exact wrong moments (like last year). The offense, while strong enough to score some points, will not be as mistake prone as last year’s game, but will still be far too one-dimensional to control the game. We’ll see our fair share of points, but not enough to make up for the defensive mistakes and it being an away game takes it’s toll late in the game. As a result, the Bears can’t put together the drives they need to win at the end.
Here’s hoping I’m wrong… Final score: Cal 34, Northwestern 38
August 29th, 2014 at 7:10 am
Ken,
For grins, I’ll play the contrarian role.
Northwestern is a weak team. They only won one conference game last year, and that was against Illinois. Add to that all the off field issues and their quality QB graduated.
If N’western was beatable last year, they should be beaten soundly this year. I think you should take the Cal coaching staff at their word. The Oline and the secondary will be better this year.
That means Cal will be able to run the ball, thus showing huge improvement in the Red Zone. I predict the defense comes through and holds a mistake prone N’western to 32 points.
My score – Cal 45 N’western 32.
The real reason why I’m picking Cal, is if they lose this game, it’s going to be a very looooong season. If they can’t beat N’western, they can’t beat anyone in the Pac 12.
Also, Sonny Dykes had a very unambiguous task – fix the Oline and secondary. If he’s a reasonably competent college level coach, we should expect improvement. If Cal can rush for more than 180 yards, they should score 40 or more points easily. Sonny knows this is a requirement to keep his job and stay in desirable California. Otherwise, it’s back to Texas, Louisiana or some other distant outpost.
August 29th, 2014 at 8:22 am
The only thing I’d disagree with in your comment Rick is “I think you should take the Cal coaching staff at their word.” There’s two things I don’t take the coaching staff at their word on:
1. The quality of the recruits they just signed.
2. How improved the team is in spring/fall practice.
Nevertheless, what you said about Sonny knowing exactly what he needed to do in the off-season, is quite true. It’s also true that if he’s at all a good coach he would be able to fix it. We’re about to find out just how good he and his staff are.