In all of us, there are two football fans. There’s the heavily biased guy who’s got all sorts of preconceptions and scoffs at data that appears to contradict what in his heart he knows to be true. This guy, for example, doesn’t care that Iowa is undefeated and has beaten Penn State and only has Ohio State, who is struggling with teams like Purdue, left on the schedule. He knows Iowa is Iowa and there’s just no way they belong in the national title game if Texas loses.

The other fan in all of us is the rational one. He knows that football teams change and that he has to do a very careful analysis of every game and every injury and every schedule to even come close to understanding who’s good and who’s not. This guy is a lot more unsure than his biased counterpart.

So you can imagine these two fans sitting on each of your shoulders like the angel and devil in the stories/movies/books of old, albeit without the explicit goodness and badness of each. And just like that old imagery, in some of us the biased fan is very strong and it appears the rational guy doesn’t exist. In some of us the rational guy is so strong it appears that there is no bias. Personally, I like to believe that in me I lean towards the rational guy most of the time.

The reason I bring this up now is because my biased guy scoffs and scoffs LOUDLY at ASU. He doesn’t care that ASU beat Cal in 2007. He knows that ASU team was the luckiest team in modern football, squeaking by against a crippled Cal team in a game they in no way deserved to win, as well as many others that year, and perhaps was the worst 10-2, Holiday bowl losing team in history. His suspicions were confirmed when ASU fell of a cliff in 2008, not even reaching bowl eligibility. And he knows that this year’s ASU team with their “dominant” run defense is a joke for the ages.

He knows Cal can destroy that team if they put up even a modest effort, perhaps not even as good as their performance in the Rose Bowl and definitely not as good as their performance in Minnesota.

I mean, COME ON! It’s the over-the-hill, Carpenter lacking, Erickson show. Those guys don’t know defense in Tempe, right?

And I’ll be honest, my biased guy is WAY over-powering my rational guy.

Sure, my rational guy tries to get in a couple of points arguing that giving up 82 yards a game on the ground is impressive no matter who you’ve faced (Phsh, did you SEE what Stanford did to them on the ground?) and they played a noble effort at Georgia despite losing, something that is always difficult to do (Chsh, yeah and those wins over Idaho State, not even Idaho proper, and Louisiana-Monroe really bolster the resume, who have the actually BEAT!?!) and that win over Washington, who lets not forget beat the USC team that creamed us, shows they’re dangerous (Fttt! Did you SEE the non-defense that UW put on the field in the winning play at the end of that game?), and yeah, my statistical preview over at BearTerritory.net shows a fairly even game but in the end, the biased guy is winning the battle of hearts and minds in my head.

Maybe it’s because my rational guy just doesn’t have many arguments to work with or maybe it’s because my biased guy is so strongly biased. However, my rational guy and my biased guy were on the same page about WSU and they don’t feel on the same page about ASU. Nevertheless, I just can’t believe that Cal is going to lose this game. The biased guy is winning the argument with ease.

It’s exactly the way I felt in 2007 and my biased guy just doesn’t care:

Bears 38, Sun Dopes 17

There are two games each season I find it most difficult to predict. The first is the Big Game and I think it goes without saying. There’s always some surprise, particularly historically. Minus 2007, the last 10 years have probably been one of the most predictable stretches of the Big Game with the favored team winning the vast majority of the time but even still I find it near difficult to predict what’s going to happen.

The other game is the game before us. USC.

Here’s what I can tell you about what I expect from the USC game:

1. Both teams are going to play physical.
2. It’s going to be close, closer than the pundits generally think.
3. The Bears are going to lose… AGAIN!?!

But somewhere in my heart, every other year or so, I get the notion in my head that this is the year. In 2004, it was a great shot. Same with 2006, and that frustrating Arizona loss wasn’t going to matter when we beat USC. In 2008, we’ll I wasn’t quite as confident as 2004 or 2006, but we had to pull it off eventually and that USC team seemed vulnerable.

But yet, somehow, we lost every one of those. Ironically, the one year I was most sure we were going to lose, 2003, ended up being the year we beat them. (OK, that’s a partial lie, I suspect I was less confident in 2005 by the time that game rolled around than in 2003, but they were the bottom two games anyway.)

So here I find myself, yet again, thinking that this feels like the year. But is it? Well, here are the reasons it just might be:

• This might be the worst USC team since Carrol took over. If you want a break-down of just how bad this team is, checkout The Bear Will Not Quit’s USC preview. This team has lost so much and the new guys just haven’t gelled yet. Add in the bad run with injuries and this is one vulnerable team.
• The Bears get USC at home during an ‘up’ year. So far the Bears have been getting USC at home during the down years and have had to travel to the Coliseum in up years. That’s made this match up even more frustrating. Well, I guess it still is possible we’ll look at this year like it’s a down one, but it feels more like 2007 and 2008 were down and 2009 is an up year.
• The game is early in the season. When the Bears beat USC in 2003, it was early in the season. Just about every USC loss, including this year’s loss to Washington happens early in the Pac-10 schedule. The reality is that USC has the most talent and by the end of each season their talent is dialed in enough to beat everyone. However, earlier in the season a lack of experience can hurt those talented but light on experience USC players. Yeah, other teams have inexperience problems too, but nevertheless this levels the playing field.
• The 3-4 defensive scheme. I still have a lot of faith in this scheme, yes, even after the Oregon debacle. It allows teams with less than USC talent to put tremendous pressure on the USC quarterback through creative blitzing schemes and generally make up for the talent differential with creativity and scheming. The 4-3 is basically lining up and telling USC to let us have it. Not so with the 3-4.
• Offensive balance. The other years that Cal played USC tough and had a shot at winning, Cal had balance, 2004 and 2006 being the most notable. In the other years, when Cal had balance during the game they succeeded when they couldn’t find it, they struggled. I know we’re all scratching our head about what happened to Riley in Eugene and that leaves us unsure, but generally speaking Riley has done well at home and I’m optimistic he’ll give us that balance tomorrow.

That’s a pretty good looking list, yes?

Well, hold onto your boots because for every point I’ve got in the positive, I’ve got a negative:

• Our 2003 win was a standard early USC loss. I hate to crush the popular belief that Cal beat USC “straight up” but lets face it, Cal’s win was closer to Oregon State’s two wins, as well as Stanford and Washington’s than it is to Oregon’s victory in 2007. Why does 2003 matter now? Because it means we’ve never really beat USC outright, it’s always been a “charity win”. OK, I know I’m going to hear it for this one, but tell me, why was that fairly untalented and 7-5 finishing team able to do it but the 10-1 and 9-3 teams not able to do it? Why? Because we’ve never beat them straight up.
• USC has already had their early loss. If you look at they’re history, once they have that early loss, they go on a tear and you don’t want to be the next pile of meat they get to devour. That early loss wakes the sleeping giant every year. Unfortunately for the Bears, Washington already woke them up.
• Talent, talent and more talent. In the end, USC wins year after year because they’ve got more talent. There is no denying that it’s true this year just as much as any other year.
• Their defense is still pretty darned good. This was what most struck me when writing the statistical preview for BearTerritory.net (subscription required). They’ve held teams WAY below their averages. This may not be the monster defense that stifled Cal to the tune of 3 points last year, but it may hold the Bears to 10 or 13. Do we really think we can win this game with 13 points on offense?
• The Oregon factor. I’m sick of talking about it, but any list of reasons why we’ll lose this week that doesn’t include it isn’t worth listing. I’m hoping the Bears will respond well. But don’t tell me that in your heart of hearts that you don’t visualize a Cal offense that is forced 3 and out for a handful of possessions in a row that starts emotionally breaking down as they start to see a repeat of last week. We all know that if things get just a little bit ugly, the Oregon game might make it so the Bears don’t have the fortitude to rebound.

So, where does that leave me? I’m not sure to be honest. I can’t even find that sense deep in my heart of who’s going to win. The only thing down there I can find is hope. Jason says these things so much better than I (which is why he’s the real professional journalist and I’m the pseudo-pro) but down there deep inside all I can do is hope. This has to be the year!

Doesn’t it?

(OK, just for the record, I’m picking the Bears to win 21-17)

Well, I keep going back and forth on this game.

On the one hand, Oregon has had a LOT of problems to date and they’ve been masked by just how weak their opponents the last two weeks have been. Both of their lines are not getting the job done and there have been mistakes galore on the offense with turnovers. Then when you look at the statistics in my statistical preview article over at BearTerritory.net (subscription required) it paints an even more ugly picture for the Ducks.

But through it all I’ve had this lingering feeling in the back of my head that the Ducks could just be a sleeping giant. Well, not quite a giant, but a large guy that you don’t want to mess with on their home turf. Then I re-watched the 2008 match up between the Bears and the Ducks last night and was struck by just how potent the Oregon offense was. It’s really hard to tell because there are so many variables, but the Bears may not have won that game if it wasn’t The Lake Bowl. All of a sudden I wasn’t feeling so good about the game.

At the same time, this isn’t the same Oregon team. Gone are Reed who caused all kinds of trouble in the Cal backfield and Byrd who caused all kinds of trouble in the secondary. The lines have been decimated. So, this isn’t the same team that impressed last year.

In the end, I keep coming back to Masoli’s throwing problems. If Masoli can’t prove that he can hurt the Bears through the air, the Bears will have no problems plugging up the Oregon running game. So, since the way I see it, Masoli lost something in the offseason with his passing game, I think the Bears are going to be able to shutdown Oregon’s offense. Add in Cal’s offensive balance that they didn’t have last year, combined with the Cal offensive line being able to likely win the line of scrimmage battle and I think the Bears win this one, probably easier than my heart is willing to believe.

Bears 31, Ducks 20

I feel like I’ve talked myself to death talking about the upcoming Minnesota game, so this preview will be shorter than usual (“phew!” says all the non-fanatics who visit the site).

My initial impression of Minnesota was that they were a one dimensional run team, but the more footage I’ve watched I’ve realized that they’re more than that. They’re a one dimensional run team with a single receiver their QB loves to lock on and throw to. I guess that makes life a little bit more difficult than if they were just a run team, but this Cal secondary has proven time and time again that you can’t beat them with just one threat. You’ve got to spread the ball around.

So, on paper, particularly when one adds in talent levels and both team’s 2009 game performances, this should be a pretty easy win for the Bears.

But everyone here knows that’s not the real story. The real story is whether these Bears are going to be able to go on the road and win. I feel a lot like I would if Cal had to travel to Arizona this year (not last year where they actually had a pretty good offense). I feel like the Bears should win but I know all to well how dangerous it is to go into the desert and come out unscathed. Particularly with the Gopher’s new stadium, a topic that I think is being under discussed emotion wise because teams don’t like to see their new virgin stadium defiled by a loss, I’m a lot more nervous about this game that I’d like to admit.

All one has to do is read my statistical preview over at BearTerritory.net (subscription required) to know just how much us Bear fans have to be nervous about in the history of non-conference road games for Tedford’s Bears.

Nevertheless, I’m going to ignore those fears and predict the Bears cruise to an easy win 35-17.

What can one really say about this match up? About the only interesting thing about the Eastern Washington game is what the final score will be. I mean, it could be interesting if the Bears had a penchant for under-estimating lower teams. But let’s be honest, at home in Memorial Stadium, that just about never happens. I call as my first witness Sacramento State, then Portland State and even Colorado State (who won’t hold up under cross-examination as they’re not a I-AA/FCS school). Even on the road, Cal has beaten the lowly schools. It’s the middle BCS conference and higher schools that have proven troublesome on the road.

So, what is there to say about this game?

Well, read my Statistical Preview over at BearTerritory.net (if you’re a subscriber) where you’ll find just about all the interesting statistics I could dig up about FBS versus FCS match ups, particularly those that include teams in the AP top-25.

But beyond that, I think we just need to be looking for Cal to come out early and score some points in rhythm. We want to see Riley be effective early in the game. Other than that, we want to see the starters take a seat early so we avoid key injuries (remember that we lost Best against Colorado State and Nate Longshore (the first time) against Sac State). Plus it gives us time to see the lesser players in action.

Here’s a list of players to watch for (with jersey numbers):

• #10 Brock Mansion: He mostly just got to hand the ball of to DeBoskie in the 1st game, so it’ll be nice to see him throw some balls. What few he threw against Maryland didn’t look very sharp so hopefully we’ll see some improvement here.
• #9 Beau Sweeney: It sure would be nice to see him get some reps just to see if he’s as much of a gamer as he looks in practice and the spring scrimmage.
• #40 Tavecchio and # 16 D’Amado: It’ll be interesting to see who gets how many kickoff opportunities in this game. Can Tavechio kick like he does in practice? How good is D’Amado’s leg for the long kickoffs?
• #22 Will Kapp: Brian Holley proved himself well against Maryland, but fullback is still the position with the most risk, depth wise. It will be nice to see how Kapp can do. It’ll also be interesting to see if Tyndall (#31) gets any playing time.
• #53 Donovan Edwards: He’s our 2nd stringer for both tackle positions. There’s a good chance he’ll need to start a game or two at some point so look for how he does against rushes off the edge.
• #92 Trevor Guyton: Guyton is our 3rd string nose tackle behind Kendrick Payne who showed his strength versus Maryland and our 2nd string defensive end backing up Alualu. With Owusu showing so much strength as a backup DE, it’ll be interesting to note how good Guyton does both at DE and at NT.
• #55 Jerome Meadows: Backup linebackers Price and Bishop showed a lot last week. Meadows got playing time but didn’t really stick out to me. It’ll be interesting to see how much this JC transfer can contribute.
• #15 Bryant Nnabuife: Josh Hill had an excellent game backing up Hagan last week who had cramps and other minor injury problems. Nnabuife is the other backup and need to be more evaluated as a corner (he’s a great special teamer).

Those are the numbers I’m going to be watching for.

Finally, expect a 52-10 victory from these Bears even with all the backups playing.

Whenever I put my thoughts together on a Cal opponent, two questions first come to mind:

1. What worries me about the team?
2. What weaknesses will the Bears be able to expose?

In this case, there are only two things that scare me about Maryland. First, I’m a little bit scared of their running game. Maryland was really able to control the 2008 match up through the running game. With Scott back as their lead tailback, I’m a bit concerned he’ll be able to have that balance of power and speed that can give any team trouble. Overall, this concern seems a bit overly worrisome to me because in 2008 although the run game hurt the Bears, it wasn’t the leading reason that Cal lost.

The second scary things is this new Maryland defensive scheme. Now, it may be that their new scheme will result in lots of easy and long scores for the Bears, but their high pressure highly variable blitzing defense could also be very confusing to a team that doesn’t know what to expect from the Maryland defense. I would not be surprised at all to see the Cal offense take 3 or 4 drives to figure out how to defense the Maryland defense.

Which leads in perfectly to the weaknesses of Maryland. What Cal will hopefully be able to expose is the youth and inexperience of this Maryland team. This could be true on both sides of the ball with the Maryland offense sputtering behind their inexperience offensive line that can’t open up holes for Scott or protect Turner and the young receiver core that may not be on the same page with Turner (who will need that when he’s under lots of pressure). On the defensive side, it could burn Maryland in two ways. For one, even if they kept to the old defensive strategy, there would be coverage holes and mistakes of youth that the Bears could expose. However, when one adds on the new defensive scheme, something that will occasionally confuse even experience defensive players, Maryland could be ripe for getting burned a lot.

So overall, I think that Cal should win this one in a lower scoring affair than the betting line suggests. If I was a betting man, I wouldn’t give the points. 3 touchdowns is a LOT, particularly if the game ends up being a lower scoring affair.

I’m going with 31-17 Bears for the final score.

Finally, don’t forget to read my Statistical Preview article (subscription required) over at BearTerritory.net.
Finally,

Each year I do my best to predict the score of each game for the upcoming season. I take a great deal of pride in my predictions and give them an exhausting amount of thought. One the one hand, it’s hard not to boast about picking the exact score twice in the last two year (Oregon 2007 and Emerald Bowl 2008). But more importantly, if you look at my 2008 predictions, other than missing the Maryland loss, my only oversight was picking which of Oregon and Oregon State Cal would lose to. (OK, there’s the small matter of thinking 6-3 in the conference would get Cal into the Holiday bowl too.)

So, at the risk of boasting too much and being way too bold (too late!) here are my predictions for 2009:

Cal 31, Maryland 17:
Cal will get its revenge in Berkeley. Between the game starting at 10 PM Eastern time (could this game be going at 2 AM Eastern!?!) and the cold Berkeley fog rolling in, it’ll be just as much of a shocker as the muggy heat at 9 AM was to the Bears. But more importantly, the Bears will get their revenge by playing a solid game with the new and improved Kevin Riley under center.

Cal 45, E. Washington 10:
This game should be about as interesting as Sac State in 2005 or Portland State in 2006. The most interesting aspect of this game will be how many backups get how much playing time to get a sense in a real-time game environment just how deep this Cal team is.

Minnesota 13, Cal 27:
This game will play out just like the last Minnesota game. A one-sided Big-11 team will find out that Pac-10 defenses are just not going to be beat by a one-sided team. So forget everything you’ve heard about how good they are this year. They’ll be too one-dimensional to win. What might happen, and might just get a number of Bear fans nervous is that the Bear offense won’t be firing on all cylinders so far from home. However, it won’t be enough to lose.

Oregon 31, Cal 28:
If there’s one game on the schedule I feel least comfortable about, it’s this one. I’d almost like to put two scores, one were Cal wins somewhat handily because every reason one has to be suspicious about this Oregon team (problems on both sides of the line, secondary issues, new head coach, etc.) come true and one where those weakness are no big deal and Cal loses handily. I feel that it’s unlikely this game will be as close as the previous matchups have been, I’m just completely unsure who’s game it’s going to be. In the end, I’ll go with a close loss where the Autzen crowd does in the Bears. But if there’s one game where I’m most sure I’ll have different thoughts by game time, it’s this one.

Cal 24, USC 13:
Yet another game where I’m uncomfortable, but after just watching the ’07 edition and having the ’08 edition still in my mind, I’ve got to think this is the Bears year for finally bringing home the win in Berkeley. Between a crowd that’s going to be louder than these USC players have ever heard in Berkeley (similar to the 2006 Oregon game) and USC not firing on all cylinders without the defense to keep them in a game they’d otherwise be able to pull out, the Bears win in the shot heard round the Pac-10.

UCLA 20, Cal 38:
There are two games between which I’m going to pick a road loss for the Bears, UCLA and ASU. My gut says to go with UCLA because the Bears have had so much trouble in LA in the Tedford era where they’ve done fine, minus the 2007 debacle, in Sun Devil stadium. But I feel this is the year that Cal exercises the Rose Bowl/LA demon. UCLA has also been hit hard by the injury bug.

Cal 45, WSU 17:
WSU will be improved over 2008, but not THAT improved. Expect the Bears to run over them again in Berkeley.

ASU 31, Cal 27:
In my heart I just can’t believe I’m picking the Bears to lose this game. ASU should be bordering on terrible this year and I can’t see how the Bears lose this one. So consider this the wildcard road-game loss. And I just can’t see who else to pick. It’s not Washington and I don’t think it is UCLA. Stanford and Oregon don’t count because Oregon is too good to be a “letdown loss” and Stanford, well, the Big Game just defies the whole road game difficulty scenario.

Cal 38, OSU 20:
Yet another demon to be exercised in 2009 is the OSU monkey on our back (BTW, that’s another reason to pick Oregon to beat us, they view us as their monkey who’s been stiffling them). OSU just won’t have the talent this year and their defense that was the real key to their success won’t get it done. When one adds in that the fly-sweep mumbo-jumbo they over-used last year will no longer be novel in 2009 and OSU won’t stand a chance.

Cal 27, Arizona 17:
The Arizona defense is going to keep this game closer than it should be well into the 2nd half, but Cal is going to win this one easier than the score indicates. Cal only struggles with Arizona in the desert and I don’t see that changing this year with Tuitama gone, perhaps the most under-appreciated QB in the Pac-10 the last couple years.

Standford 20, Cal 45:
The Tin Bowl in Palo-Alto is only going to steal a Cal victim once. I call Stanford’s bluff that Luck is going to be a great QB right out the gate. He’ll be well exposed by the time Cal gets to game planning for this one and Riley with his nearly 2 full years of experience is not going to fall to a gimmicy Stanford defense. Cal has yet another Big Game romp, proving ’07 was just an exception.

Washington 24, Cal 28:
I think Washington is going to be vastly improved in 2009 and perhaps the most under appreciated team in the conference. I think they can give Cal a scare but can’t win the game. The only possible exception to that might be if Washington is 5-6 and needs the victory for a bowl appearance and Cal is already short of a Rose Bowl shot (like if Oregon only has 1 conference loss) and it’s looking too crowded for an at-large BCS berth. Probably not even then, but that would setup a scenario where the Bears might just not give it 100%.

So, is 7-2 in the conference going to do it for a Rose Bowl appearance? It’s going to be a tough call. Oregon probably has two losses in them, but they do get USC in Eugene. I think USC has two losses in them too, so it just may come down to a 3-way tie between Cal, USC and Oregon where we’ve each beat each other once. As such, whoever has lost to the best team in the conference will be the deal breaker (see my recap on how the Rose Bowl tie-breaker works). With Cal losing to ASU, I doubt that eliminates Cal, but who USC and Oregon lose to also effect the final outcome, (if Oregon loses to the higher team, their out and Cal wins the head-to-head over USC but the opposite is true if USC loses to the higher team) it’s a very tough call.

I’m going to say Oregon loses the Civil War whereas USC loses to Arizona, putting Cal in the Rose Bowl because OSU is the best of those 3 teams, record wise.

What does everyone think?

Maybe because that’s the score I predicted on national TV! If you fast-forward to the 3:57 mark in this youtube video you can hear it for yourself.

I seem to be able to pull the exact score about once a season. I did it last year for the Cal vs. Oregon game with a 31-24 pick, a pick that many derided me for as well under what should be the actual score. Some would call it luck, and there is no doubt that the exact score is all about luck, but to get that lucky you’ve got to be picking scores that are in the right ballpark pretty often for the odds of getting lucky to be high enough for it to happen even occasionally, much less once a season.

Beyond that, I seem to have a knack for picking the exact score for the big ones that aren’t the Big Game. Last year’s Oregon game was the only game I covered in person for BearTerritory.net and was of course a huge game at the time including GameDay showing up in Eugene. I’ve come pretty close with the USC game once or twice too. Not sure why that is other than to say I bring my ‘A’ game for the big ones.

Alright, that’s all the last of the bragging you’ll hear about this (well, the yet to be published podcast has some too 🙂 ) until I nail another one. Just couldn’t help myself.

Well, I don’t know for the rest of you but the break between the Washington game and the bowl game went by like a flash. Let me tell you, I went to every game this season in person, driving to every one of them but WSU and Maryland, and the Emerald Bowl will make it 13 games in 4 months. I have an entirely new appreciation for how the wear and tear of the season affects the players. It’s a long season and when you’ve got to be a full time student at the same time, or in my case have to work full time and support the family, it definitely takes its toll over the course of the season.

In any case, here are some ‘as they come to me’ thoughts on the upcoming game:

• About 10% of the fans will be Miami fans. They sold 4000 tickets through UM. While some of those were to Bear fans I’m sure, I think it’ll be offset by Miami fans who bought tickets through other sources. As a comparison, Stanford accounted for about 15% of the Big Game crowd.
• Speed, speed and more speed. Both teams love to emphasize speed on both sides of the ball. Of course Javhid Best is all about speed. So are the Miami RBs. Perhaps Cal doesn’t have the speediest wide-receivers, but there is speed there. Miami’s are even faster. The same goes on defense.
• Generally speaking, teams that rely on speed, rely on the big play and I think that has proven out this season for the Bears. It’s also true that the key to the Bear defense is preventing the big play while also getting pressure on the QB and good run stopping. That’s what the 3-4 is all about. It’s why the Bears were able to beat Oregon. So while I don’t expect the Cal offense to run wild on the Miami defense because they’ve got a lot of defensive speed, I do expect the Cal defense to do even better at coraling Miami. Particularly considering how mistake prone they can be, I think that’s something to be optimistic about.
• Playing in SF seems to be working out just fine for the Bears. Nobody seems to be complaining. If anything the low expectations for the bowl environment has helped them appreciate it more. Add in the comfort of practicing at home and the heavy fan bias at the game and I think the Bears should come ready to play.
• If you ever want to feel better about the Cal QB situation, read up some on the Miami QB situation. It’s a big difference between what Cal is dealing with where you’ve got two capable guys who just haven’t been able to make the leap to being good/great consistently and Miami where they’ve got really young guys who are very mistake prone and have fundamental problems. It feels more like Ayoob vs. Levy than Riley vs. Longshore.
• Miami is up to 5 suspended players. While most of them don’t seem like big hits to their on the field success, it does feel to me like there are some control issues for Miami. Remember that this is a program that is trying to clean its act up after a number of years where it was ‘anything goes’. While everyone was OK with that when they were winning national championships, now there is a renewed desire to see them play more cleanly. In any case, I’m not sure it will affect the outcome, but it’s one of those indicators that suggest not all is well inside the Miami camp.
• There seemed to be a certain lack of comfort/confidence of the Miami players at the Tuesday press conference. I could even be so bold as to say they looked tired and dazed. I suspect that San Francisco rain, a biting cold rain that is as dreary as it gets, just isn’t what they expected when they came to “California” for a bowl game. The more I think about it, if one team is going to come out of the tunnel under-prepared and lacking intensity, it’ll be Miami.

Those are my thoughts. But before you go thinking I think this game will be a walk in the park, if Miami comes to play and does a good job of coraling the Bears, I think it’ll be a tough one for them to win. It’s really about the Cal defense playing to their potential and tackling well. They’ve got to give the Cal offense plenty of chances to score and not require too many scores to win.

(The following was originally posted before the Cal-USC game on November 18, 2006. The situation is not entirely the same: this is not a play-in game, because Oregon State lurks the following week. And yet I feel the need to restate just what’s at stake, in the grand scheme of things. And so here you go: a rerun.)

This is it. The Rose Bowl is on the line. A game that Cal can win to potentially end 50 years of frustration. To help the faithful Cal fans reach one of their lifelong — and, at times, seemingly insurmountable — sports goals.

I have said for many years now that I have only two sports wishes in my life. One is for my beloved San Francisco Giants to win a World Series. (Hope Russ Ortiz still has that ball.) The other is for my beloved Cal Bears to play in (not win, just play in) the Rose Bowl.

And now a (perhaps temporary) sense of calm has settled over me. I can’t play in the game, have no control over the outcome. USC has been, over the last few years, one of the most dominant teams in college football.

And all Cal has to do is win. Win, and erase 50 years of misery. Win, and heal feelings about Bruce Snyder and Roger Theder and Joe Kapp. Win, and give Cal fans something greater to hang their hats on than the crushing of a random trombone player. Win.

Thousands of trees have been chopped down to supply paper for navel-gazing Bostonians to write about what the Boston Red Sox curse, and its exorcism, meant to them. Cubs fans are famous for suffering endlessly at the hands of bad teams interspersed with the occasional moment of hope that’s immediately dashed by painful failure.

I understand what they feel. But it doesn’t go the other way. Most people outside of our little circle do not know the magnitude of what this would mean to us. Cal fans have suffered in silence, suffered through Tom Holmoe and Keith Gilbertson and the Joe Kapp years and many years of poor-to-mediocre play that preceded the appearance of my young self on the benches of Memorial Stadium.

I can’t speak for the new faces that have filled Memorial Stadium the last few years. I’m sure they’re excited, and I’m glad they’re aboard for the ride. But I speak as someone who has seen the lean times, who chanted the mantra “Keep It Close, Lose With Dignity,” who stood outside the stadium and cheered Tom Holmoe because Cal merely lost to Nebraska rather than getting blown out. Who watched Stanford run around with the axe innumerable years and then cap it off with their own inconceivable trip to the Rose Bowl. Who has seen older people from the benches around us disappear from this world during the off-season, never to see the Bears reach that goal.

The other week I was riding the bus to work and began to think about what I would do if Cal played in the Rose Bowl. I really couldn’t even get my arms around it, emotionally. And very quickly I stuffed it all back down under a pillow in a corner of my mind, promising myself that there was no point in running that emotional simulation when the goal was so far off. There would be plenty of time to live the event after it occurred, if somehow a series of ridiculous events that began with Cal hiring a brilliant football coach and recruiting a series of star players culminated in the most ridiculous event of all: a conference championship and a berth in the Rose Bowl.

There would be tears, certainly. And madness, incoherent shouting and whooping. And perhaps the distinct buzzing feeling that we’ve all been transported to some parallel universe where black is white and night is day and man bites dog.

But that’s all hypothetical. And it will remain so unless Jeff Tedford’s team does one thing in the Coliseum. One simple thing.

Win.

Note to readers: This is part of a two-post thread. The first is Confessions of a Bears fan

So, picking up where I left off, in the face of such a difficult challenge, why is it that I’m so optimistic?

I can say this, I’m not alone. Reading the various message boards there are optimistic people everywhere. A thousand different reasons are given for the optimism but all of them generally overlook the fundamentals of the game, trying to beat a very good defensive team in their stadium where they just about never lose.

So here’s my 6 point list on why there are reasons to be optimistic:

1. A win would exceed expectations: I’ll start with the reason for optimism that has nothing to do with the likelihood the Bears will win tomorrow. The first is that the Bears are in a position to do better than everyone expected. It’s a lot easier to be hopeful about a team that has generally met or exceeded expectations. Everyone expected USC to beat the Bears, so the worst than can happen tomorrow is that the Bears meet expectations by losing
2. Low scoring games favor the underdog: With the defenses being the units that are expected to be victorious, most people are expecting a low scoring game. Low scoring games tend to be good for the underdog. All it takes are a couple of lucky breaks, a missed assignment here or there, and the Bears could have a couple ‘undeserved’ scores that could be the difference in a low scoring affair.
3. Turnovers: The Bears are one of the best teams in the nation, turnover wise. A couple of big interceptions could make a huge difference in the game, particularly ones that either go for a touchdown or lead directly to a score. Sanchez may have his advantages over Booty, but one thing he is not is proven or mistake-free. A couple of timely interceptions could be all it takes to put the Bears over the top, particularly if it’s a low scoring game.
4. This team has heart: Something that has been missing from the team the last few years is heart. The 2002-2004 teams were remarkably determined teams that often WAY over-achieved. Some of their most disappointing losses were proof of that. Sometimes heart isn’t enough. But heart also gives you a shot a games you have no business winning. Heart can help you reel off 23 consecutive completions against USC in LA. Heart can help you go to Michigan and take down a highly ranked MSU team despite coming off a 1-10 season. The last few years, particularly ever since Ayoob collapsed, have lacked some of that heart. This team seems to have the heart back.
5. USC is over-looking this game: With USC still hoping for a BCS championship berth, their attention is on winning with style-points, not just winning. When one does that, they have the potential to forget the little things like holding on to the football and making sure to wrap up a runner instead of going for the big hit. One can’t say for sure whether USC will overlook the Bears, but it’s a possibility. They may come out flat. They may be mistake prone. In a low scoring affair, that may be all the Bears need.
6. It’s bound to happen sometime:If not now, when? Cal keeps going to LA and keeps coming up just a few points short. At some point, they’re going to have to break through. Just like they broke through in Eugene in 2007, at some point they’ll break through in LA. It’s just a matter of time. The question is whether that’s a matter of hours or of years.

Will these reasons matter tomorrow? An honest person would probably have to bet against them (well, if they weren’t getting nearly 3 TDs in the spread). But hope springs eternal and this Bear fan, while accepting that the Bears are probably going to lose, is pretty darned optimistic.

GO BEARS!

The Bears are going to get slaughtered. This weekend’s USDA butcher’s meeting has been moved to LA from Lincoln, Nebraska in anticipation of the slaughter.

It’s going to be ugly.

It’s going to be depressing.

That’s what I think when ever I look at this matchup both through the statistics and schedule/results analysis. It’s no different when I look at highlights and game-film. There’s just no way the Bears are going to be able to sustain a running game against this Trojan defense and I’m not optimistic that the Bears are going to have enough success through the air to compensate, particularly with Cigneti and Tedford calling the plays where they, mostly in a good way, refuse to give up on the run game.

No, the Bears can’t pull an Oregon state and win on the offensive line and use their running back’s unique blend of small-size, power and speed to control the ball. Best just isn’t that kind of back. Vereen’s actually closer, and although good, doesn’t seem to have the “flair” factor to pull it off. Add in the patch-work that is the Cal offensive line and that’s just not going to happen.

Yeah, the Bear’s defense is pretty darned good, and I think they can keep USC in check. Nevertheless, USC will probably be able to score in the low 20’s, perhaps only the mid to high teens with an excellent Bear performance. But I just don’t see the offense putting up enough points to win even with that good of a defensive performance.

Add to that fact that it’s going to be really hard for the defense to play that well when the offense is spitting out 3-and-outs like a jackpot spewing slot machine.

This isn’t the 2004 Bears that just missed. Heck, this isn’t even the 2006 Bears that only had 3 quarters in them.

The Bears are going to get slaughtered. Accept reality, OK?

Why is it then that I’m so darned optimistic today?

(More on that later)

The Oregon game is BY FAR the most exciting match up Cal plays each year these days. If you’re looking for the next edition of ‘The Play’, don’t expect it to come from the Big Game, expect it to come from the Oregon game. Just look at all the “amazing, sensational, traumatic, heart rending, exciting thrilling” things that have happened in the Tedford v. Belloti series:

1. 2002, no game: The potential best match up of the year gets the shaft in the 8-game Pac-10 schedule, delaying the start of what has been a great series. Thankfully, the Pac-10 shortly resolved this problem by going to a full 9-game round-robin just a few years later.
2. 2003, turn out the lights: Cal came into this game 5-5 after destroying the Arizona schools in back to back weeks. Oregon was 5-4 having just got drubbed by U-Dub. Cal played a strong first half but could only squeak out a 10-7 halftime lead. However, in the 2nd half, the team came alive and was up 17-7 and was driving to score again when 1/2 of the stadium lights went out. Yes, you read that right, 1/2 the lights went out. It took them close to a half-hour to get the lights back on and when they did, the Bears couldn’t recover, eventually losing 17-21, capped by an Oregon touchdown with less than a minute left.
3. 2004, hands of stone: Unlike the previous year, Cal was a BIG favorite in this game, ranked #4 in the country. Their only loss was to #1 ranked USC in LA in what was perhaps the most thrilling game of the 2004 Pac-10 season. Oregon on the other hand was having a more mediocre season at 5-4 (again). However, it was Oregon who attempted to return the favor of Cal’s tough play the year before taking a 27-14 lead in the 2nd quarter, their only mistake being a missed extra-point. However, being a day-game, the Bears had to find a different bag of tricks to use to rebound than the Ducks. Aaron Rodgers got his groove back and the defense made strides against the Oregon offense, finally taking the lead back early in the 4th quarter, 28-27, the missed extra-point now being of critical importance. It all came down to the last Oregon drive of the game where with less than 2 minutes left when a wide open Keith Allen dropped a pass on 4th down. The catch would have both kept the drive alive and put the Ducks well within field-goal range.
4. 2005, going backwards to kick hurried field-goal: The tables had turned on the two teams in 2005 with Oregon 7-1 with their only loss being to USC and Cal in a free-fall after starting the season 5-0 and now 6-2 after barely escaping Berkeley with a win over ailing WSU. It was a back and forth game where Ayoob shot himself in the foot numerous times preventing Cal from dominating. It setup the critical juncture of the game with the scored tied at 20-20 where Cal had the ball and drove all the way to the Oregon 33, marginal field-goal range with one timeout and just under a minute left. However, Cal lost ground on both 1st and 2nd down pushing them back to the 44, well out of field-goal range. To add injury to insult, Cal had to use their last timeout on the 2nd down busted play. Cal needed a 10+ yard play that stopped the clock to allow for a field-goal attempt. Instead Ayoob ran the ball to the Oregon 37 and went down in-bounds setuping up a 20-second scramble to get off a 54 yard field goal attempt in the rain. The kick was short by less than a yard, a kick that would have been good from the original 33-yard spot. Cal then lost in overtime.
5. 2006, the exception that proves the rule: This was SUPPOSED to be the next in the line of great games, this time between two ranked teams. However, Cal’s defensive pressure proved too much for the relatively inexperienced Dixon who made a number of mistakes including an early game interception in his own redzone that set the tone of the game in this blowout.
6. 2007, fumble for a touchback: Probably the best game of the series, two undefeated teams and highly ranked teams met in Eugene, along with the ESPN GameDay crew, for what was a a battle for the ages. After trailing for most of the game, albeit by one score at the most, Cal put together a handful of good drives as the defense came up with some critical stops mid-2nd half to take a 31-24 lead. Oregon tried to come back but a handful of turnovers in the 4th quarter stiffled their otherwise good progress. It all came down to the last drive yet again with Oregon down by 7 with 1st and goal after a long drive down the field. When Colvin reached for the endzone on a quick pass to the outside, he was hit REALLY hard by Ezeff, who managed to somehow knock the ball out of Colvin’s hands. What was particularly odd about it was that the ball didn’t go the direction of the hit, but squirted forward into the endzone and out of bounds for a touchback, sealing the win for the Bears.

What’s going to happen this year?

UPDATE: My prediction for the unusual thing that tips the scales this year is special teams. Between Belloti’s penchant for the trick play on special teams, Cal’s uneasiness in some special teams situations while at the same time having some pretty big run back potential, I think this year there is going to be a late-game special teams disaster for one of the two programs that will end up being the deciding factor. 60% likelihood of a blocked punt, 30% likelihood of a big run-back, 10% likelihood of a fumble on a runback.

Here are my updated predictions for the season now that everything has settled out:

Cal 41, Michigan State 27:
On paper, MSU looks to be a formidable opponent. However, between the spring and now expectations have fallen a bit with them no longer in the top-25 of any major poll. The offense is also experience laden with senior quarterback, Brian Hoyer, in this third season starting under center, a senior running back coming off a nearly 1500 yard season and over 2700 yards in his career as well as an offensive line with 3 seniors and 2 juniors. On defense MSU doesn’t look quite as strong up front but will have a formidable secondary with all four spots manned by players with lots of experience. All of that aside, my gut says that this is a well over-appreciated. The team was 7-6 overall last year and 3-5 in a VERY weak Big 10. Call me an optimist if you wish but Cal will keep the MSU running game in check and that will be all that is needed to ensure a win with the offense clicking early. (Change from spring: none)

WSU 13, Cal 35:
If for some miraculous reason WSU is able to pull the upset against Oklahoma State in their opening game, this game may not be the walk in the park I expect it to be. With a new head coach a big upset can fuel a team to play above its pay-grade. Since I don’t expect that upset to occur, I don’t expect this game to be a tough one and the Wougs will go down easy. (Change from spring: none)

Maryland 20, Cal 35:
Maryland is a very young team going into 2008. Their starter at quarterback has never taken a snap. Their running back has only one year of experience under his belt and it wasn’t a very good one. The rest of the roster is full of freshmen and sophomores and the occasional inexperienced junior. Considering the team just snuck into a bowl game at 6-6 with their experienced roster last year and couldn’t pull off the victory despite Oregon State spotting them 14 points in the 1st quarter, I don’t think there is much to fear from Maryland, despite the fact they will enter the game undefeated after beating up on two patsies. (change from spring: reducing from the absolute blowout of 10-45. One should never expect that big of a win when going cross country.)

Cal 26, Colorado State 13:
If the Bears had not squeaked by versus Colorado State last year I would say that this game would have the potential to be a letdown game. Colorado State had a rough year last year, losing their first six games (including a 28-34 loss to Cal) before playing .500 ball to finish out the season 3-9. However, the team lost very little of its now “school of hard knocks” battle tested squad and looks quite experienced coming into this season. Colorado State could themselves be undefeated if they can pull the opening week upset against Colorado before playing two patsies of their own. Nevertheless, the Bears won’t forget what happened last year and will be ready to show the home crowd why we have reason to be excited about 2008, even though the end score reflects a dirty, drag ’em out victory. (change from spring: none)

Cal 30, Arizona State 24:
ASU will be fresh off having their teeth knocked out of their heads versus the highly regarded Georgia Bulldogs when they come to Berkeley. Nevertheless, they’ll still be 3-1 after beating up on two patsies and Stanford, who will be a tougher challenge this year than people originally thought. The pundits are pretty high on ASU mostly because Rudy Carpenter is back under center and their experience on the offensive line. What is forgotten is just how much talent ASU lost to graduation, particularly on defense. Expect Cal to be out for blood against this finesse team and romp to an early lead before the resolve of ASU under Erickson tightens the score. (change from spring: none)

Arizona 27, Cal 24:
Normally I would say that Cal getting Arizona before November is a good thing. However, I think this is the year that Arizona continues their trend of mediocrity to enter the game versus Cal 3-3, losing to UCLA, Washington and Stanford. Arizona will be desperate to get back on track versus the Bears to stay in the hunt for bowl eligibility before getting to the meat of their schedule. As much as I hate to say it, and when reviewing this in the fall I’m even more loath to say it, this is Cal’s letdown game on the road and the 5-0 curse continues. It’ll feel eerily like 2006 where it looks like the wildcats are going to go down early before clawing back into it in the 2nd half and taking the lead late in the game. (change from spring: closing from 27-21 to a field-goal margin)

Cal 35, UCLA 20:
The quarterback situation at UCLA is one that should make every legitimate college football fan feel sorry for UCLA. How many QB injuries can one team sustain? There will be even more reason to feel sorry for them after their brutal schedule to open the season where they could enter the game as low as 2-5, although they could be as high as 4-3. Nevertheless, Cal won’t let a repeat of 2007 occur particularly with this game at home and the home win streak in this series will grow to 10. (change from spring: revising scores down from 49-27)

Cal 20, Oregon 23:
Here’s a sure betting tip for all you gamblers out there: NEVER take the over for the Cal-Oregon game. This game is always lower scoring than everyone expects. If this game was early in the season I would expect Cal to win and win easily. By this point however, the inexperience that Oregon will have had early in the season, particularly at the skill positions, will be long gone and Oregon will be clicking on all cylinders. If the Bears can win this game it would set them up for the key showdown with USC the following week. Alas, the very experienced Oregon defense will stifle the Cal offense and Oregon wins this one in one that comes down to the wire yet again. (change from spring: no change despite QB issues at Oregon… although if it turns out as nasty as it could, Oregon could disappoint a lot of people and this game could be much easier than I think)

USC 27, Cal 20:
My gut says that USC will lose another uncharacteristic Pac-10 game in 2008. I’m guessing it is either Arizona or Washington because I don’t think WSU has it in them and Oregon and ASU wouldn’t qualify as “uncharacteristic”. Nevertheless, the one loss in conference play will ensure that this game is for all the marbles yet again and yet again the USC defense will be the deciding factor. Sorry Bear fans, no Rose Bowl in 2008. (change from spring: none)

OSU 13, Cal 41:
I don’t know if I’ll ever figure this out, but a trip to Corvallis may help me understand why the Cal-OSU series is the antithesis of the Cal-UCLA game. The home team hasn’t won this game since 2002 when the Beavers actually won at home in Tedford’s first year. That trend will continue this year as the Bears are desperate to get back on track after back-to-back loses to Oregon and USC. OSU will also be having difficulty filling all the holes in the depth chart as the usual injuries pile up this late in the season. Expect Cal to romp and romp early.

Cal 38, Stanford 17:
Two words: RE – VENGE! The Cal defense will be out for blood in this one and the offense will be back to clicking like early season form. Stanford will be fairing far worse than most with the injury bug depleting an already thin depth chart. The one difference is that Stanford’s offensive line should be good enough that Stanford won’t need 3 QB’s and Cal fans won’t find themselves answering the difficult question of whether it is more morally bankrupt to feel sorry for whoever is the next Stanford QB to take that beating or to show no mercy. (change from spring: revising up Stanford’s score significantly from 3 points. This team showed to have a lot of heart and plucky resolve Thursday. It’ll still be a Cal win, but not an absolute blowout.)

Cal 31, Washington 17:
The only reason to fear this game is if it was in Seattle, since it is now early December or if the Huskies are but one victory from bowl eligibility. However, my guess is that Washington will have likely found their 7th loss against UCLA two games prior because of their BRUTAL non-conference schedule. They have the nation’s toughest schedule two years in a row with non-conference games against Notre Dame, Oklahoma and BYU (even if the national rankings show them as #2, there’s is the toughest because Notre Dame is better than people think (See Danzig, at least it’s consistent Catholic homerism)). Add in having to play the conferences three toughest teams (USC, Oregon and Cal) on the road as well as the Apple cup in Pullman and it’s going to be tough for the Huskies to get to their last game with only 6 losses. Expect Cal to grind this one out on the ground and only go to the air when necessary with the young defensive front being unable to hold off the determined Cal offense. (change from spring: none)

Cal 35, Kansas 19:
The Holiday bowl is not a happy camper faced with a Texas vs. Cal match-up “by the numbers”. Unwilling to pick below their ranking on both sides, they pick Cal because of their good historical showing in San Diego and because Texas was just there the prior year. Instead they go for Kansas who has taken the #2 spot yet again in the Big-12 north. Their other choice was Texas Tech. in third place in the Big-12 south but they didn’t want a rematch of 2004. (change from spring: none)

So, no major changes here. I was tempted to change both the Arizona and Oregon games or at least one of them to a win, but in the end, this feels like a 9-3 team, even with Riley under center. Mark my words: there will be a moment this season where Riley makes a big mistake that sinks the Bear’s hopes in that game. I say this not because I don’ think Riley is good, but because only one quarterback in 1000 don’t, if that. Riley is still very young with only 7 quarters under his belt and two of them were not very sharp (albeit the first two).

So, 9-3, losses to USC and Oregon and one other “unexpected” loss to a team like Arizona. That’s my ‘general’ prediction. We’ll see how it turns out.

The last week has been an absolute blur for me. Between a busy week at the day job, bookshelves and desks in the woodshop that I’m furiously trying to finish before the deadline I promised my wife of “before football season starts” (I got an extension until Labor Day), going to practices and press conferences for BearTerritory.net and a TV interview, the amount of time I’ve had to think about the upcoming game is pretty small.

But as I showed on TV, not having time to think has never stopped me from blathering away.

So I looked up my post-Spring Practice game-by-game predictions to see what I had to say about MSU (as an aside, expect updated preditions for the season before tomorrows game):

Cal 41, MSU 27

While I think the numbers might be a bit high (perhaps 34-24 feels more right at this moment), I think my thoughts on MSU were about right. Cal is not going to overlook MSU because they’re a mediocre Big-10 team, which is good, and the fact is that they’re a mediocre Big-10 team, which is even more good.

In an lot of ways I expect MSU to be very similar to Minnesota who Cal played in 2006. They’re just a little too one-dimensional to be a true threat to the Bears. The one thing that the Pac-10 teaches its teams is balance. Defenses need to be ready to stop both the pass and the run. There’s not a single team in the conference that shutting down one aspect of their game is going to completely shut them down.

As such, when Cal faces a one-dimensional team, whether they be run-oriented or pass-oriented, they usually do well. Playing defense is A LOT easier, when the other team is one-dimensional. MSU would be well suited to start the game on a passing spree because the Bears are going to be very geared up to stop the run. They won’t at all be expecting a pass-heavy set of play-calling.

But here’s to thinking that MSU is just as incapable of doing that as Minnesota was a couple years back. I expect this game to be easier than everyone expects. While it won’t be a walk in the park, when it’s all said and done I expect there to be a lot of fans thinking “what were we so worried about?”.

So I’m sticking with my spring prediction: 41-27

Each year I do my best to predict the score of each game for the upcoming season after Spring Practice wraps up. This year it has taken me a long time to decide how to go about it because there are more question marks about the team than any year since the beginning of the Tedford era. To resolve that, I’ve had to make a couple of assumptions:

The #1 assumption is regarding the quarterback. I really have no idea who is going to start. The way I have resolved this is to assume a “level of play” out of the quarterback. The level I have assumed is the play of Longshore pre-injury in 2007 and Riley in the bowl game. I believe these two levels of play to be about the same. There is a significant mobility difference, but since Tedford tends not to modify his game-plan for who is at QB, I suspect the difference will be minimal in the end.

The #2 assumption is that the running back situation is going to be about the same as with Forsett in the backfield. In many ways I believe this is selling the team short as the combination of Best, Vereen, Slocum and perhaps Deboskie will likely result in a 1-2 punch (if not 1-2-3 punch) that is stronger than what Forsett provided. In the end I think it balances out because I may be over-selling the quarterback situation.

The rest of the team’s starters are predictable enough that my job is to figure out not who will start but how those starters will perform against a bunch of teams that are themselves in flux.

Cal 41, Michigan State 27:
On paper, MSU looks to be a formidable opponent. Early pre-season polls have them ranked in the high teens to low twenties. The offense is also experience laden with senior quarterback, Brian Hoyer, in this third season starting under center, a senior running back coming off a nearly 1500 yard season and over 2700 yards in his career as well as an offensive line with 3 seniors and 2 juniors. On defense MSU doesn’t look quite as strong up front but will have a formidable secondary with all four spots manned by players with lots of experience. All of that aside, my gut says that this is a well over-appreciated team because of their noble effort, albeit a loss, in their bowl game versus Boston College. The team was 7-6 overall last year and 3-5 in a VERY weak Big 10. Call me an optimist if you wish but Cal will keep the MSU running game in check and that will be all that is needed to ensure a win with the offense clicking early.

WSU 13, Cal 35:
If for some miraculous reason WSU is able to pull the upset against Oklahoma State in their opening game, this game may not be the walk in the park I expect it to be. With a new head coach a big upset can fuel a team to play above its pay-grade. Since I don’t expect that upset to occur, I don’t expect this game to be a tough one and the Wougs will go down easy.

Maryland 10, Cal 45:
Maryland is a very young team going into 2008. Their presumptive starter at quarterback has never taken a snap. Their running back has only one year of experience under his belt and it wasn’t a very good one. The rest of the roster is full of freshmen and sophomores and the occasional inexperienced junior. Considering the team just snuck into a bowl game at 6-6 with their experienced roster last year and couldn’t pull off the victory despite Oregon State spotting them 14 points in the 1st quarter, I don’t think there is much to fear from Maryland, despite the fact they will enter the game undefeated after beating up on two patsies.

Cal 26, Colorado State 13:
If the Bears had not squeaked by versus Colorado State last year I would say that this game would have the potential to be a letdown game. Colorado State had a rough year last year, losing their first six games (including a 28-34 loss to Cal) before playing .500 ball to finish out the season 3-9. However, the team lost very little of its now ‘school of hard knocks’ battle tested squad and looks quite experienced coming into this season. Colorado State could themselves be undefeated if they can pull the opening week upset against Colorado before playing two patsies of their own. Nevertheless, the Bears won’t forget what happened last year and will be ready to show the home crowd why we have reason to be excited about 2008, even though the end score reflects a dirty, drag ‘em out victory.

Cal 30, Arizona State 24:
ASU will be fresh off having their teeth knocked out of their heads versus the highly regarded Georgia Bulldogs when they come to Berkeley. Nevertheless, they’ll still be 3-1 after beating up on two patsies and Stanford (who needs a whole different word for their weakness). The pundits are pretty high on ASU mostly because Rudy Carpenter is back under center and their experience on the offensive line. What is forgotten is just how much talent ASU lost to graduation, particularly on defense. Expect Cal to be out for blood against this finesse team and romp to an early lead before the resolve of ASU under Erickson tightens the score.

Arizona 27, Cal 21:
Normally I would say that Cal getting Arizona before November is a good thing. However, I think this is the year that Arizona breaks through from sub-mediocrity to enter the game versus Cal 4-2, losing only to UCLA and one of Washington and Stanford. Arizona will be desperate to get back on track versus the Bears to put them only one game from bowl eligibility before getting to the meat of their schedule. As much as I hate to say it, this is Cal’s letdown game on the road and the 5-0 curse continues. It’ll feel eerily like 2006 where it looks like the wildcats are going to go down early before clawing back into it in the 2nd half and taking the lead late in the game.

Cal 49, UCLA 27:
The quarterback situation at UCLA is one that should make every legitimate college football fan feel sorry for UCLA. How many QB injuries can one team sustain? There will be even more reason to feel sorry for them after their brutal schedule to open the season where they could enter the game as low as 2-5, although they could be as high as 4-3. Nevertheless, Cal won’t let a repeat of 2007 occur particularly with this game at home and the home win streak in this series will grow to 10.

Cal 20, Oregon 23:
Here’s a sure betting tip for all you gamblers out there: NEVER take the over for the Cal-Oregon game. This game is always lower scoring than everyone expects. If this game was early in the season I would expect Cal to win and win easily. By this point however, the inexperience that Oregon will have had early in the season, particularly at the skill positions, will be long gone and Oregon will be clicking on all cylinders. If the Bears can win this game it would set them up for the key showdown with USC the following week. Alas, the very experienced Oregon defense will stifle the Cal offense and Oregon wins this one in one that comes down to the wire yet again.

USC 27, Cal 20:
My gut says that USC will lose another uncharacteristic Pac-10 game in 2008. I’m guessing it is either Arizona or Washington because I don’t think WSU has it in them and Oregon and ASU wouldn’t qualify as ‘uncharacteristic’. Nevertheless, the one loss in conference play will ensure that this game is for all the marbles yet again and yet again the USC defense will be the deciding factor. Sorry Bear fans, no Rose Bowl in 2008.

OSU 13, Cal 41:
I don’t know if I’ll ever figure this out, but a trip to Corvallis may help me understand why the Cal-OSU series is the antithesis of the Cal-UCLA game. The home team hasn’t won this game since 2002 when the Beavers actually won at home in Tedford’s first year. That trend will continue this year as the Bears are desperate to get back on track after back-to-back loses to Oregon and USC. OSU will also be having difficulty filling all the holes in the depth chart as the usual injuries pile up this late in the season. Expect Cal to romp and romp early.

Cal 38, Stanford 3:
Two words: RE – VENGE! The Cal defense will be out for blood in this one and the offense will be back to clicking like early season form. Stanford will be fairing far worse than most with the injury bug depleting an already thin depth chart. With the ‘new coach’ and ‘we beat USC’ mojo long since faded from memory, Cal wins this one in a walk similar to the previous Tedford Big Games. The one difference is that Stanford’s offensive line should be good enough that Stanford won’t need 3 QB’s and Cal fans won’t find themselves answering the difficult question of whether it is more morally bankrupt to feel sorry for whoever is the next Stanford QB to take that beating or to show no mercy.

Cal 31, Washington 17:
The only reason to fear this game is if it was in Seattle, since it is now early December or if the Huskies are but one victory from bowl eligibility. However, my guess is that Washington will have likely found their 7th loss against UCLA two games prior because of their BRUTAL non-conference schedule. They may just have the nation’s toughest schedule two years in a row with non-conference games against Notre Dame, Oklahoma and BYU. Add in having to play the conferences three toughest teams (USC, Oregon and Cal) on the road as well as the Apple cup in Pullman and it’s going to be tough for the Huskies to get to their last game with only 6 losses. Expect Cal to grind this one out on the ground and only go to the air when necessary with the young defensive front being unable to hold off the determined Cal offense.

Cal 35, Kansas 19:
The Holiday bowl is not a happy camper faced with a Texas vs. Cal match-up “by the numbers”. Unwilling to pick below their ranking on both sides, they pick Cal because of their good historical showing in San Diego and because Texas was just there the prior year. Instead they go for Kansas who has taken the #2 spot yet again in the Big-12 north. Their other choice was Texas Tech. in third place in the Big-12 south but they didn’t want a rematch of 2004.

Expect to see an update of these predictions at the end of Fall practice.

Two big pieces of news came in through the beat-writers for Cal yesterday:

1. “First and foremost, coach Jeff Tedford announced that wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Robert Jordan, as well as free safety Thomas DeCoud, will not start today’s Armed Forces Bowl against Air Force because they violated team rules.”
2. “backup quarterback Kevin Riley will see some limited playing time today. Tedford said Riley will probably play a series or two, because he wants to get him some experience in a bowl game.”

The first item I doubt will have a substantial impact on the game outside of a series or two. I suspect Tedford will put them back in pretty quickly as the infraction was “minor” according to Tedford. The more important aspect of this news is that it reinforces the idea that the 2007 Bears had crushing team chemistry and leadership problems down the stretch. I’m sorry, on teams that have good team leaders, you don’t get players breaking team rules enough so that the coach pulls them as a starter in their bowl game. That’s a sign of a coach and players not being on the same page.

The second news falls into the “Too little too late category”. While I haven’t been one to say that Longshore should be benched, I have been one to say that in the last few games of the season, Tedford should have been getting Riley playing time so that he’d be in a far better position to compete for the starting job in 2008. It sounds like Tedford is figuring that out now.

While I haven’t been blogging due to the birth of my third son, it doesn’t mean that I haven’t been thinking about the Bears, their collapse and the upcoming bowl game. The more I thought about it, the more I realized a singular truth: The Bear’s success and failure have nothing to do with their opposition and everything to do with themselves and their own effort.

I could spend a ton of paragraphs talking about the triple option, but Ragnarok did a great job of it here. I could go over the Bears struggles against it in 2002 and their success against it in 2004. I could talk about the new aspects of Air Force’s attack including a more balanced attack. I could talk about Air Force’s mediocre to good defense and their weak schedule. But all of that, while usually important in previewing a game, is pretty much meaningless for the bowl game.

Why?

Because everything important is about the Bears getting their mojo back. The Bears have the potential to be great on both sides of the ball. If you’re worried that the Bears can’t play assignment defense, I’ve got some game film from the Oregon game to show you. If you’re worried the Bears can’t play the physical ball needed to beat a disciplined defense, I’ve got more game film from the Tennessee game to show you. But the problem is the team that beat both Tennessee and Oregon is the same team that more recently stunk it up against Washington who’s usually pathetic defense looked world class against the Bears and Stanford in a game that was as depressingly mediocre as the bowl the Bears have sunk to.

So, do the Bears get their mojo back? I think the honest answer is that I have no idea. That said, here’s my list of reasons why they may:

• The report from beat writers like Jonathan Okanes is that the Bears practices have gotten back to the fun yet intense mode they were in fall practice.
• The month break can heal a lot of emotional wounds
• The month break can heal a lot of physical wounds
• The time off gave Tedford and staff to focus on the lack of team chemistry that is hard to spend time on when practices are focused on game-planning.
• Seniors want to go out on a good note
• It’s the Bears last chance to prove themselves
• The Bears seem to play better when they’re the underdog, something they’ve rarely been despite the tumble

On the other hand, there’s a few reasons that it may not happen:

• Team chemistry is a difficult thing to repair no matter how much time is allowed
• Almost nothing has changed since the Big Game (like injured players who are now available)
• Lack of confidence can be masked for a while, but often re-appears at the first sign of adversity

So which Bears will show up tomorrow?

I’d like to believe that whatever has been wrong with the Bears will have been patched during the break but after listening to myself and my Big Game podcast it may just be that the passing of time helps one to forget just how bad the collapse has been. Add in that having a baby makes everything in the world look more rosy and I don’t trust my desire to be confident. Maybe it’s best summed up by the phrase…

The Bear will not quit, the Bear will not die… but the Bear does worry.

I didn’t do a preview article for Rivals this week, just too much going on, so I’m not as up to speed on the Huskys as I’d like to be. Nevertheless here are a few things that should be known about them:

• Young QB Locker has been the key to the success they had early in the season. As teams adjusted to this new wrinkle in their offense, the lost the ability to win games. It doesn’t help that he’s now injured and won’t play (at least that’s what I last heard).
• Their defense is horrible. They actually had a shot to beat Oregon about a month ago but their defense couldn’t get a stop to save their lives.
• The weather in Seattle is supposed to be rainy today with a game-time temperature just under 50 degrees. Sounds a lot like last week for the Bears.

All of that said, I think this game comes down to the Bears ability to execute and rebound emotionally from the USC loss. On paper, I think the Bears are a better team at 3/4ths of the positions on the field. But this game has very little to do with what’s on paper, particularly considering the rainy conditions. This game is about who wants it more. Do the Bears want to salvage some respect and win out? Do the Huskys want to finish off the season strong to give them momentum going into next year?

Whoever wants this game more is likely going to win.

Many may ask why this site has been so quiet the last few days. Could it be that Ken is following Jason’s example of “if you don’t have anything good to say, don’t say anything at all.” Or perhaps my perpetually upbeat nature can’t find any angle on which to predict a win?

Nothing could be farther from the truth.

Nope. The only thing keeping me from posting is that I’ve been CRAZY busy this week. I’ve had a huge project due at work today and at home I’ve been on kid duty while my wife has been finishing up her Master’s Thesis. I’ve been dying to find time to post, but it just hasn’t been there.

See, there’s lots to feel good about. This Cal team is VERY capable of beating USC. I don’t think this team could beat the 2004-2006 USC teams, in fact I think this team is weaker than either the 2004 and 2006 Bears which both lost to USC (although I do think the 2004 Bears would have been the 2006 Trojans, but I digress). But the 2007 Bears don’t have to play those Trojan teams. They have to play the 2007 Trojans.

The 2007 Trojans are not a team to be scared of. They’ve lost to Stanford… AT HOME! They’ve struggled against Arizona and Washington. They lost to Oregon on the same field that Cal beat the Ducks… and that game was not as close as the score or the final opportunity to tie.

So there is no question that the Bears are capable of beating USC, the question is can they put together the same type of game they put together to beat Oregon. I mean, they haven’t played a game at the level of the Oregon game since Longshore got injured in the 4th quarter of that game.

But to me, that’s the key. I think the Bears struggles start and end at the quarterback position. The Bears are such a balanced team that when they lose that balance they give the opposition an opportunity to hide their defensive weaknesses. When they have balance, there is no way the defense can keep from being exposed. And the Bears haven’t had offensive balance since Longshore got injured.

Don’t get me wrong, I think they had potential to have offensive balance. By putting more trust in Riley in his start or being willing to let Longshore sling the ball around when he first came back I think the Bears could have had the balance they are capable of. But whatever the reason, the Bears haven’t had that balance. So the question remains, can Cal get that balance back?

I think the answer is an unqualified yes. I think between Longshore getting health and Tedford growing more comfortable with his team’s strengths and weaknesses with Longshore less than 100%, I think the Bears will get their mojo back.

Bears win 24-17.