2008 game-by-game predictions
(Written by kencraw)
Each year I do my best to predict the score of each game for the upcoming season after Spring Practice wraps up. This year it has taken me a long time to decide how to go about it because there are more question marks about the team than any year since the beginning of the Tedford era. To resolve that, I’ve had to make a couple of assumptions:
The #1 assumption is regarding the quarterback. I really have no idea who is going to start. The way I have resolved this is to assume a “level of play†out of the quarterback. The level I have assumed is the play of Longshore pre-injury in 2007 and Riley in the bowl game. I believe these two levels of play to be about the same. There is a significant mobility difference, but since Tedford tends not to modify his game-plan for who is at QB, I suspect the difference will be minimal in the end.
The #2 assumption is that the running back situation is going to be about the same as with Forsett in the backfield. In many ways I believe this is selling the team short as the combination of Best, Vereen, Slocum and perhaps Deboskie will likely result in a 1-2 punch (if not 1-2-3 punch) that is stronger than what Forsett provided. In the end I think it balances out because I may be over-selling the quarterback situation.
The rest of the team’s starters are predictable enough that my job is to figure out not who will start but how those starters will perform against a bunch of teams that are themselves in flux.
Cal 41, Michigan State 27:
On paper, MSU looks to be a formidable opponent. Early pre-season polls have them ranked in the high teens to low twenties. The offense is also experience laden with senior quarterback, Brian Hoyer, in this third season starting under center, a senior running back coming off a nearly 1500 yard season and over 2700 yards in his career as well as an offensive line with 3 seniors and 2 juniors. On defense MSU doesn’t look quite as strong up front but will have a formidable secondary with all four spots manned by players with lots of experience. All of that aside, my gut says that this is a well over-appreciated team because of their noble effort, albeit a loss, in their bowl game versus Boston College. The team was 7-6 overall last year and 3-5 in a VERY weak Big 10. Call me an optimist if you wish but Cal will keep the MSU running game in check and that will be all that is needed to ensure a win with the offense clicking early.
WSU 13, Cal 35:
If for some miraculous reason WSU is able to pull the upset against Oklahoma State in their opening game, this game may not be the walk in the park I expect it to be. With a new head coach a big upset can fuel a team to play above its pay-grade. Since I don’t expect that upset to occur, I don’t expect this game to be a tough one and the Wougs will go down easy.
Maryland 10, Cal 45:
Maryland is a very young team going into 2008. Their presumptive starter at quarterback has never taken a snap. Their running back has only one year of experience under his belt and it wasn’t a very good one. The rest of the roster is full of freshmen and sophomores and the occasional inexperienced junior. Considering the team just snuck into a bowl game at 6-6 with their experienced roster last year and couldn’t pull off the victory despite Oregon State spotting them 14 points in the 1st quarter, I don’t think there is much to fear from Maryland, despite the fact they will enter the game undefeated after beating up on two patsies.
Cal 26, Colorado State 13:
If the Bears had not squeaked by versus Colorado State last year I would say that this game would have the potential to be a letdown game. Colorado State had a rough year last year, losing their first six games (including a 28-34 loss to Cal) before playing .500 ball to finish out the season 3-9. However, the team lost very little of its now ‘school of hard knocks’ battle tested squad and looks quite experienced coming into this season. Colorado State could themselves be undefeated if they can pull the opening week upset against Colorado before playing two patsies of their own. Nevertheless, the Bears won’t forget what happened last year and will be ready to show the home crowd why we have reason to be excited about 2008, even though the end score reflects a dirty, drag ‘em out victory.
Cal 30, Arizona State 24:
ASU will be fresh off having their teeth knocked out of their heads versus the highly regarded Georgia Bulldogs when they come to Berkeley. Nevertheless, they’ll still be 3-1 after beating up on two patsies and Stanford (who needs a whole different word for their weakness). The pundits are pretty high on ASU mostly because Rudy Carpenter is back under center and their experience on the offensive line. What is forgotten is just how much talent ASU lost to graduation, particularly on defense. Expect Cal to be out for blood against this finesse team and romp to an early lead before the resolve of ASU under Erickson tightens the score.
Arizona 27, Cal 21:
Normally I would say that Cal getting Arizona before November is a good thing. However, I think this is the year that Arizona breaks through from sub-mediocrity to enter the game versus Cal 4-2, losing only to UCLA and one of Washington and Stanford. Arizona will be desperate to get back on track versus the Bears to put them only one game from bowl eligibility before getting to the meat of their schedule. As much as I hate to say it, this is Cal’s letdown game on the road and the 5-0 curse continues. It’ll feel eerily like 2006 where it looks like the wildcats are going to go down early before clawing back into it in the 2nd half and taking the lead late in the game.
Cal 49, UCLA 27:
The quarterback situation at UCLA is one that should make every legitimate college football fan feel sorry for UCLA. How many QB injuries can one team sustain? There will be even more reason to feel sorry for them after their brutal schedule to open the season where they could enter the game as low as 2-5, although they could be as high as 4-3. Nevertheless, Cal won’t let a repeat of 2007 occur particularly with this game at home and the home win streak in this series will grow to 10.
Cal 20, Oregon 23:
Here’s a sure betting tip for all you gamblers out there: NEVER take the over for the Cal-Oregon game. This game is always lower scoring than everyone expects. If this game was early in the season I would expect Cal to win and win easily. By this point however, the inexperience that Oregon will have had early in the season, particularly at the skill positions, will be long gone and Oregon will be clicking on all cylinders. If the Bears can win this game it would set them up for the key showdown with USC the following week. Alas, the very experienced Oregon defense will stifle the Cal offense and Oregon wins this one in one that comes down to the wire yet again.
USC 27, Cal 20:
My gut says that USC will lose another uncharacteristic Pac-10 game in 2008. I’m guessing it is either Arizona or Washington because I don’t think WSU has it in them and Oregon and ASU wouldn’t qualify as ‘uncharacteristic’. Nevertheless, the one loss in conference play will ensure that this game is for all the marbles yet again and yet again the USC defense will be the deciding factor. Sorry Bear fans, no Rose Bowl in 2008.
OSU 13, Cal 41:
I don’t know if I’ll ever figure this out, but a trip to Corvallis may help me understand why the Cal-OSU series is the antithesis of the Cal-UCLA game. The home team hasn’t won this game since 2002 when the Beavers actually won at home in Tedford’s first year. That trend will continue this year as the Bears are desperate to get back on track after back-to-back loses to Oregon and USC. OSU will also be having difficulty filling all the holes in the depth chart as the usual injuries pile up this late in the season. Expect Cal to romp and romp early.
Cal 38, Stanford 3:
Two words: RE – VENGE! The Cal defense will be out for blood in this one and the offense will be back to clicking like early season form. Stanford will be fairing far worse than most with the injury bug depleting an already thin depth chart. With the ‘new coach’ and ‘we beat USC’ mojo long since faded from memory, Cal wins this one in a walk similar to the previous Tedford Big Games. The one difference is that Stanford’s offensive line should be good enough that Stanford won’t need 3 QB’s and Cal fans won’t find themselves answering the difficult question of whether it is more morally bankrupt to feel sorry for whoever is the next Stanford QB to take that beating or to show no mercy.
Cal 31, Washington 17:
The only reason to fear this game is if it was in Seattle, since it is now early December or if the Huskies are but one victory from bowl eligibility. However, my guess is that Washington will have likely found their 7th loss against UCLA two games prior because of their BRUTAL non-conference schedule. They may just have the nation’s toughest schedule two years in a row with non-conference games against Notre Dame, Oklahoma and BYU. Add in having to play the conferences three toughest teams (USC, Oregon and Cal) on the road as well as the Apple cup in Pullman and it’s going to be tough for the Huskies to get to their last game with only 6 losses. Expect Cal to grind this one out on the ground and only go to the air when necessary with the young defensive front being unable to hold off the determined Cal offense.
Cal 35, Kansas 19:
The Holiday bowl is not a happy camper faced with a Texas vs. Cal match-up “by the numbersâ€. Unwilling to pick below their ranking on both sides, they pick Cal because of their good historical showing in San Diego and because Texas was just there the prior year. Instead they go for Kansas who has taken the #2 spot yet again in the Big-12 north. Their other choice was Texas Tech. in third place in the Big-12 south but they didn’t want a rematch of 2004.
Expect to see an update of these predictions at the end of Fall practice.
June 24th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Brilliant analysis Ken. Great insights. I agree with almost everything except these points:
MSU (win in squeaker, not blowout)
I have seen many of MSU’s games last year including the boston game. I think the bookmakers will have us as a dog, but I think we take it simply because graduation has been harsh on MSU. However, i don’t think this game will not be a blowout b/c of Ringer and Hoyer.
Strengths: Ringer is the Justin Forsett of the east – they are so similar. Also I don’t like that Hoyer is very good under pressure, so a pass rush sometimes hurts us more than it helps. They also have a great screen game and Ringer works his blocks well. Plus it worries me that Dantonio is constantly being called the new Tedford.
Weaknesses: No more Jehuu Caulcrick, their short yardage star RB. Without Jehuu their 1st down efficiency and time-of-possession drops dramatically. No more Kellen Davis, their star TE and Hoyer’s primary dump-off man. No more Devin Thomas, their one season wonder (1260yrds,8TD) and KOR star who averaged 30yrds per KOR. No more Jonal Saint-Dic who was the Trevor Laws of the Big10. No more Terry Love, their 2nd best return guy and WR. No more Travis Key their best DB. Plus, I think their star freshman WR Dell is overrated.
AzState (loss)
I’ve been thinking about the Georgia matchup too. They’ll get DESTROYED. With such a weak OL up against such a NASTY DL, I expect Rudy to be crying by the end of the game. However, they get a bye before they come to Cal and they’ll be fired up after the loss. Herring/Nance will finally come-of-age and so will their WR core of Jones/McGaha/Burgess. They might have the most “seasoned” offense of the Pac10. I think this is closer than anyone would expect, maybe even a loss.
Arizona (win in squeaker)
I disagree with your Arizona call. This isn’t a letdown game for precisely the same reasons you think it will be. Its not in November (no more jinx). There is a possibility that they are 6-0 by the time we play them. They have the softest first-half season schedule out of the whole conf. Like you said, they’ll be 4-2 by the time we see them. They might even be ranked. Plus by then we might be 4-1 so this will be a Pac10 significant game. We will not overlook this game, in fact it might be televised on network. I do think Grigsby will have a breakout year if they decide to finally call a few running plays; he’s good. However, without Cason I think we can rip up their secondary. Cason ruins everything and he was a force multiplier. Without Cason we take this one in a squeaker.
Oregon (win in squeaker)
This game will be the battle of the ground games. Best/Vereen vs Johnson/Crenshaw; on a neutral field this would be a toss up, but at home we take it by six-ish. Well, i guess this isn’t really disagreeing with you, but I think we win this one.
BIG GAME
It’s prob safe to assume the Big Game will NOT be a blowout for either team. This game is always close and with the ‘surge at the furd’, this game might be a challenge for us.
– I totally agree with every other game including kansas. We always win when our head coach weighs less than the opposing head coach. This is one statistic you can bet on.
June 24th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
Good counter-analysis. Of course all of this is by the seat of our pants so I’d have to say your scenario is just as likely as mine. The key thing for me in the prediction is that the team ends up 9-3 or so and falls just short of the Rose Bowl. The one I most strongly disagree with you is ASU. They’re the most over-ranked team in the conference and will have the ‘sophomore slump’ with their new head coach. Remember that they won a lot of squeakers last year. The ball won’t bounce so kindly for them this year.
So in your scenario, with losses to USC and ASU spoiling an otherwise spotless schedule, do the Bears get an at-large BCS bid or does ASU get it by playing a good season to be approximately 10-2 as well or do both of us get the shaft?
June 24th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
you’re slightly more optimistic than me, but as i mentioned on your last post, i’ve learned to trust your prognostication skills.
personally, i would find a cal-texas tech rematch intriguing.
June 24th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
“So in your scenario, with losses to USC and ASU spoiling an otherwise spotless schedule…”
Good point ken, I do not think we’ll be 10-2. I think we’ll lose Maryland and OSU too but have no rational explanations for these predictions. We bog down when we play OSU and I have this irrational respect for the terps since I download and watch many of their games:
http://elliottsmithbootlegs.com/terp/FB/
Of course, the fact this guy only posts winning games might have something to do with it. Plus I am aware of all their skill position graduations and their crappy home record. Like I said, my respect for the terps is totally irrational and is mostly for the coach. Best guess:8-4.
—
“Of course all of this is by the seat of our pants so I’d have to say your scenario is just as likely as mine.”
– trust me, your scenario is always more likely than mine. Are you reading my comments?… i got mad respect for your football knowledge.
—
As for AState, I think they’re pretty good. True, Erickson can do a soph-slump but his offensive players will be made up of seniors and juniors – at all the skill positions. Nance and Jones are players that we haven’t seen the best of yet (like Grigsby @ AZ), so as long as Rudy doesn’t implode like he did in ’06, they’ve got a solid squad.
However, i concede that if Rulon and Ernest are healthy during that game we might have the edge b/c I remember how we stuffed their offense during the 1H of the 07 game when we actually had Davis back and some kind of a pass rush. I kept thinking, “what a difference a pass rush makes”… didn’t you?
June 24th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
While I do not know if Cal will be 10 – 2 at the end of the regular season, I do think if they are they will get a BCS bid. Like last year, I do not see dominating teams in College football this year, and I think that 10-2 gets the Pac 10 some love. Maybe not the Rose Bowl, but perhaps the Fiesta. Which would be huge.
June 24th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Not to give too much away, but I think this team has 7-9 wins in it.
Hopefully we’ll have a podcast to explore this more soon!
June 25th, 2008 at 8:38 am
Oski88, I’d like to agree with you on a 10-2 Bear team in a BCS bowl, but the BCS is always a crap shoot and the team on the losing end of the table always seems to be on the Pac-10 end of the table. I thought for sure that ASU at 10-2 would get a Fiesta Bowl bid in their home town, but then the Rose took 9-3 Illinois (it’s worth noting that the 9-3 Cal team wasn’t eligible the previous year) which caused a domino effect that left ASU out.
The way I see it, if you’re a Pac-10 team fan who wants to watch them play in the new year, you’d better hope your team wins the conference because a 2nd Pac-10 team has yet to play on New Years day or later.
June 25th, 2008 at 11:18 am
not true! on New Year’s Day 2003, Wazzu played in the Rose Bowl, while USC got to play in the Orange Bowl that year (I don’t recall whether the Orange Bowl was on the 1st that year or not).
June 25th, 2008 at 11:50 am
I stand corrected by Ragnarok. I’ve got a “hole” in my football memory from late in the 2002 season to early in the 2003 season. My wife was pregnant with our first child and football was not on the top of the priority stack, particularly for games that didn’t explicitely involve Cal. The 2003 victory over USC brought me out of that funk…
In any case, I’ll revise my above comment to be factually accurate:
“The way I see it, if you’re a Pac-10 team fan who wants to watch them play in the new year, you’d better hope your team wins the conference because a 2nd Pac-10 team has yet to play on New Years day or later if their name is not USC.”
Next it’ll be Hydro’s turn to find the next hole in my football memory…
June 25th, 2008 at 11:59 am
I don’t think I can find a hole in your football memory, Ken. But I was thinking how your wife giving birth to your first child is absolutely no excuse for missing out on the 2002-2003 college football season. I think you have your priorities out of order.
Just kidding.
As Robert Jordan would often write on the tape around his wrists: “FAM1LY F1RST”
June 25th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Ken, I like your predictions. I find them interesting. I am not going to critique them because I just don’t think anybody can. It’s early in the year, speculative, and based on the assumption that Cal won’t sustain any serious injuries to key players. Personally, I think the Cal team next year has anywhere between 6-10 wins in them (anything less than 6 would be a complete disaster). I think an 8 win season should be a reasonable par for the year with a 6 or 7 win season being a bit of a disappointment. I’m not one to make individual game predictions either so I can’t disagree with your picks of the games. Now, I am interested in seeing how your picks change based on the information we get from fall camp.
June 25th, 2008 at 12:44 pm
Good analysis, Ken.
I’m with HydroTech, I think this team could range from 6 to 10 wins. It’s early, and there are a ton of questions on both sides of the ball that need to be resolved. That said, Cal has the talent to play with anyone on their schedule.
With my wife due to give birth to twins the weekend of the Arizona game, I’m sure Cal will go on an unprecedented run right around that time. I guess my newborns will have to get used to the soothing sounds of Joe Starkey.
June 26th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Posts like these, albeit entertaining, are one of the most frustrating to really digest because at times it’s like proving what time Santa Claus will come in the middle of the night.
Okay, even that analogy flew over my head.
I will say though that I would hate to lose to ‘Zona again. Something about losing to a Mike Stoops squad…