(Written by kencraw)

There are two games each season I find it most difficult to predict. The first is the Big Game and I think it goes without saying. There’s always some surprise, particularly historically. Minus 2007, the last 10 years have probably been one of the most predictable stretches of the Big Game with the favored team winning the vast majority of the time but even still I find it near difficult to predict what’s going to happen.

The other game is the game before us. USC.

Here’s what I can tell you about what I expect from the USC game:

1. Both teams are going to play physical.
2. It’s going to be close, closer than the pundits generally think.
3. The Bears are going to lose… AGAIN!?!

But somewhere in my heart, every other year or so, I get the notion in my head that this is the year. In 2004, it was a great shot. Same with 2006, and that frustrating Arizona loss wasn’t going to matter when we beat USC. In 2008, we’ll I wasn’t quite as confident as 2004 or 2006, but we had to pull it off eventually and that USC team seemed vulnerable.

But yet, somehow, we lost every one of those. Ironically, the one year I was most sure we were going to lose, 2003, ended up being the year we beat them. (OK, that’s a partial lie, I suspect I was less confident in 2005 by the time that game rolled around than in 2003, but they were the bottom two games anyway.)

So here I find myself, yet again, thinking that this feels like the year. But is it? Well, here are the reasons it just might be:

• This might be the worst USC team since Carrol took over. If you want a break-down of just how bad this team is, checkout The Bear Will Not Quit’s USC preview. This team has lost so much and the new guys just haven’t gelled yet. Add in the bad run with injuries and this is one vulnerable team.
• The Bears get USC at home during an ‘up’ year. So far the Bears have been getting USC at home during the down years and have had to travel to the Coliseum in up years. That’s made this match up even more frustrating. Well, I guess it still is possible we’ll look at this year like it’s a down one, but it feels more like 2007 and 2008 were down and 2009 is an up year.
• The game is early in the season. When the Bears beat USC in 2003, it was early in the season. Just about every USC loss, including this year’s loss to Washington happens early in the Pac-10 schedule. The reality is that USC has the most talent and by the end of each season their talent is dialed in enough to beat everyone. However, earlier in the season a lack of experience can hurt those talented but light on experience USC players. Yeah, other teams have inexperience problems too, but nevertheless this levels the playing field.
• The 3-4 defensive scheme. I still have a lot of faith in this scheme, yes, even after the Oregon debacle. It allows teams with less than USC talent to put tremendous pressure on the USC quarterback through creative blitzing schemes and generally make up for the talent differential with creativity and scheming. The 4-3 is basically lining up and telling USC to let us have it. Not so with the 3-4.
• Offensive balance. The other years that Cal played USC tough and had a shot at winning, Cal had balance, 2004 and 2006 being the most notable. In the other years, when Cal had balance during the game they succeeded when they couldn’t find it, they struggled. I know we’re all scratching our head about what happened to Riley in Eugene and that leaves us unsure, but generally speaking Riley has done well at home and I’m optimistic he’ll give us that balance tomorrow.

That’s a pretty good looking list, yes?

Well, hold onto your boots because for every point I’ve got in the positive, I’ve got a negative:

• Our 2003 win was a standard early USC loss. I hate to crush the popular belief that Cal beat USC “straight up” but lets face it, Cal’s win was closer to Oregon State’s two wins, as well as Stanford and Washington’s than it is to Oregon’s victory in 2007. Why does 2003 matter now? Because it means we’ve never really beat USC outright, it’s always been a “charity win”. OK, I know I’m going to hear it for this one, but tell me, why was that fairly untalented and 7-5 finishing team able to do it but the 10-1 and 9-3 teams not able to do it? Why? Because we’ve never beat them straight up.
• USC has already had their early loss. If you look at they’re history, once they have that early loss, they go on a tear and you don’t want to be the next pile of meat they get to devour. That early loss wakes the sleeping giant every year. Unfortunately for the Bears, Washington already woke them up.
• Talent, talent and more talent. In the end, USC wins year after year because they’ve got more talent. There is no denying that it’s true this year just as much as any other year.
• Their defense is still pretty darned good. This was what most struck me when writing the statistical preview for BearTerritory.net (subscription required). They’ve held teams WAY below their averages. This may not be the monster defense that stifled Cal to the tune of 3 points last year, but it may hold the Bears to 10 or 13. Do we really think we can win this game with 13 points on offense?
• The Oregon factor. I’m sick of talking about it, but any list of reasons why we’ll lose this week that doesn’t include it isn’t worth listing. I’m hoping the Bears will respond well. But don’t tell me that in your heart of hearts that you don’t visualize a Cal offense that is forced 3 and out for a handful of possessions in a row that starts emotionally breaking down as they start to see a repeat of last week. We all know that if things get just a little bit ugly, the Oregon game might make it so the Bears don’t have the fortitude to rebound.

So, where does that leave me? I’m not sure to be honest. I can’t even find that sense deep in my heart of who’s going to win. The only thing down there I can find is hope. Jason says these things so much better than I (which is why he’s the real professional journalist and I’m the pseudo-pro) but down there deep inside all I can do is hope. This has to be the year!

Doesn’t it?

(OK, just for the record, I’m picking the Bears to win 21-17)