(Written by kencraw)

Arizona State is definitely the surprise team of the Pac-10 this year. They’re undefeated in Pac-10 play, beating Oregon, Arizona and now Cal on the road in the process. Originally they were a candidate in my analysis along with Oregon State and possibly Washington for the Bears to be able to beat twice to get to the 9-9 Pac-10 record that is likely needed to get to the NCAA tournament. That made last night’s game a critical one because it would show whether Cal had even a remote chance of sweeping the ASU games.

As it turned out, ASU was for real and although Cal put up a valiant effort, they fell in double overtime 90-99. Since the game wasn’t televised, it’s hard to give a detailed analysis, but it looks like the Bears ran out of gas on defense, particularly in the 2nd overtime.

So the question becomes, who can Cal make up the delta on? It now looks like instead of going 2-0 vs. ASU, Cal will likely go 0-2 with the road game against ASU still to come. That’s two games that need to be found somewhere, assuming that Cal still goes 0-2 against both WSU and UCLA.

To me, the candidates for a 2-0 record to offset the three 0-2 teams are Oregon State, who Cal has already beat on the road, Washington, who Cal hasn’t faced yet but did beat Oregon at home last night, Arizona, who’s looking weaker and weaker but hasn’t yet faced Cal, and USC, who Cal beat at home fairly handily suggesting that the Bears have a shot at the road win too.

That makes Saturday’s game against Arizona all the more key to a NCAA tournament appearance. Hopefully the Bears can rebound from the tough OT loss and stick it to a weaker than expected Arizona.