(Written by jsnell)
I was perusing Jeff Sagarin’s computer ratings this morning. His composite ranking places Cal 17th in the country overall, though his Predictor rating (which is more accurate, though less politically correct because it takes into account margin of victory) places them 28th.
I was more amused by the ratings of the teams Cal has played this year. Talk about three stinkers: Maryland is rated 115th overall (below a few I-AA schools), Washington State is rated 119th, and I-AA Eastern Washington is rated just one slot below the Cougars at 120th.
Cal’s other wins were over Sagarin #42 UCLA and Sagarin #59 Minnesota.
In contrast, Cal’s losses? To Sagarin #3 Oregon and Sagarin #5 USC. That’s the good news. The bad news? Cal has yet to play Sagarin #14 Arizona, Sagarin #23 Stanford, and Sagarin #24 Oregon State. In terms of the pure Predictor rating, Sagarin would predict that Cal will finish the season 9-3, with wins over Arizona, ASU, and Washington and a loss to Stanford (!). I can’t really call that an unreasonable prediction. It might even be optimistic.
But as always, computers don’t play the games. So we’ll see.
For what it’s worth, Cal’s current ratings in the computer systems that make up a portion of the BCS standings: 26, 17, 27, 20, 15, and 21, for an average computer rating of 20th in the country. (Hat tip: Jerry Palm’s CollegeBCS site.)