Post-Beaver Faceplant Bowl Scenarios
(Written by jsnell)
With Oregon State having been destroyed by Oregon, Cal’s bowl picture has cleared up somewhat.
Most Likely Scenario: Cal to the Emerald Bowl. By all rights, Cal should be headed for the Las Vegas Bowl. However, rumors persist that the Emerald Bowl will beg, borrow, bribe, and steal — basically do anything in its power — to wrest Cal away from the Las Vegas Bowl. So if the two bowls cut a deal, Cal will be playing in AT&T Park on Dec. 27.
Let’s assume that Cal beats Washington to go to 6-3 in the conference. The winner of the Arizona-Arizona State match-up next week would go to 5-4 in the conference and clinch fifth place. What this would normally mean is that fourth-place Cal would be destined for Las Vegas and fifth-place Arizona or Arizona State would be destined for San Francisco. Does it make sense for the two bowls to swap teams in that scenario, so that the Arizonans can drive to Vegas and the Cal fans can cross the bridge to San Francisco? You bet it does. And if Cal loses to Washington, they’d actually be right in the natural slot for the Emerald Bowl.
Even the craziest of scenarios — UCLA beats USC, Washington beats Cal, Arizona beats ASU — lead to the Emerald Bowl. In this scenario, Oregon still drops out of the Sun Bowl due to the no-repeat clause. But now Cal and Arizona are both 5-4 in conference. In this scenario the Sun Bowl would certainly pick Arizona, which has geographic proximity and the head-to-head win over Cal, so Arizona would go to the Sun Bowl. With Oregon kicked to the Las Vegas Bowl, Cal falls once again to AT&T Park.
Or let’s say Arizona State wins against Arizona to become bowl eligible and Cal loses to Washington. In that scenario, Cal and ASU would be tied for fourth place in the Pac-10. Assuming USC beats UCLA, that puts Cal and ASU tied for the slots that go to Las Vegas and Emerald. Emerald will want the team from the Bay Area, and once again, Las Vegas will choose a team from nearby Arizona.
Crazy Scenario: The only other real scenario at this point would occur because of a UCLA upset of USC. I’ll wait here until you stop laughing. Better now? Okay, if UCLA were to beat USC, two things would happen: Oregon State would go to the Rose Bowl and USC would almost certainly drop out of BCS contention, forcing it to the Holiday Bowl. By all rights Oregon deserves the next bowl as the Pac-10’s third-place team, but the Sun Bowl has a clause that allows it to turn away repeat teams, and the Ducks played in the Sun Bowl last year. So if UCLA pulls the upset, Cal is probably headed for El Paso.
A funny thing I’ve noticed in working these scenarios out. The Arizona-Arizona State game seems to have definite outcomes. The winner will play in the Las Vegas Bowl. If Arizona State loses, it’s not bowl eligible. But if Arizona loses, it will be the conference’s sixth bowl-eligible team. As a result, its consolation prize will be a trip to the Hawaii Bowl. Not too terrible.
Sory, Poinsettia Bowl. No Pac-10 team for you.
Ye Olde Bowle Handbooke
If USC beats UCLA: Rose: USC, Holiday: Oregon, Sun: Oregon State, Las Vegas: Arizona/Arizona State winner, Emerald: Cal, Hawaii: Arizona if it loses to ASU.
If UCLA beats USC: Rose: Oregon State, Holiday: USC, Sun: Cal, Las Vegas: Oregon, Emerald: Arizona/Arizona State winner, Hawaii: Arizona if it loses to ASU.
Please, smart readers, let me know if I’ve gotten anything wrong.
November 30th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Sounds all accurate to me.
The only thing I think you under-estimated is the likelihood that a USC team that just lost to UCLA would be invited to an at-large BCS berth. Remember that each conference only gets two teams. So you’ve got two SEC, two Big-12, one ACC, one Big East, one non-BCS (Utah), one Pac-10 and one Big-10. That’s 9 slots. The question is, who gets spot #10? A two loss USC? A two loss Ohio State team that USC creamed? A second non-BCS team (Boise St.)? Looking through the list of the BCS rankings, there aren’t many other options particularly because no 3rd Big-12 or 3rd SEC team is eligible. USC would still have a pretty good shot particularly because of how well their fans travel and how much of a TV following they have. Add in the “rivalry exemption” for the 2nd loss and I’d call it 50/50 that USC would still get a BCS spot if they lose to UCLA.
So assuming that happens, then it goes, USC: Fiesta, OSU: Rose, Oregon: Holiday, and then Cal ends up in the Sun if they beat UW or either the Emerald if ASU beats Arizona or the Vegas, because the Emerald has Pac-10 no team to trade the Vegas, if Arizona beats ASU in the loss to UW scenario.
Of course this is all much ado about nothing as there is no way USC loses next Saturday. I give Washington a better shot at the upset over Cal.
The final other thing: Bowls don’t have to use their “repeat clause” and I wouldn’t call it a shoe-in that the Sun Bowl would use theirs on Oregon. They used it for Oregon State because they travel horribly. Oregon made a pretty good Sun Bowl showing. That’s another 50/50 that I could see going either way.
But yeah, 90% chance we end up in the Nut Bowl.