Oregon State Preview Published
(Written by kencraw)
Some may have noticed that I didn’t have any articles published in the last couple weeks since the Oregon game. That’s because I ran out of gas. The Oregon game was so exciting that I left Autzen just exhausted. By the time I got home after having published my two articles I had nothing left in the tank. I was only able to get my podcast posted on fumes. Being a father of two young children with a third on the way, while working a full time engineering job for HP, once my tank is empty, it’s hard to get back on track. Add in that last weekend was “do everything I should have been doing on my weekends for the last month” and I was unable to write either a post-Oregon analysis article or a bye week ‘state of the team’ article, both of which were in the plans.
The good news is that I think I’m finally back on level ground and was able to write my Oregon State preview yesterday: Crunching the Numbers: Oregon State Preview. The other good news is that this is a non-subscription article as well so everyone can go read it.
October 12th, 2007 at 10:33 am
Just how good is the Beavers’ run defense? If as good as the numbers suggest at first glance, the Bears might be in for quite a battle tomorrow, especially if Canfield can avoid the interception. But then again, maybe the numbers are misleading.
First, for thoroughly unhelpful reasons, the NCAA subtracts yards lost by sack from a team’s rushing total. Thus, much of OSU’s vaunted “run defense” is actually a statistical artifact of their sack-generating pass rush (which, admittedly, is itself a concern for the Bears.)
Second, if I read your chart correctly, OSU opponents to date only average 78 ypg on the ground, compared to the Bears’ nearly 200 yards. While OSU has held those teams to even lower figures (43 ypg), a comparable percentage drop for the Bears on Saturday still translates into more than 100 yards rushing (sack losses included). Thus, while I don’t expect the Bears run game will have a field day, and Forsett may indeed struggle to get his hundred yards, I’ve got to believe it will be effective enough to slow down the pass rush and allow DJax and Co. to amass some big yards.
Like all seasoned Cal fans, I’m worried, but not really that much. Should I be really be worried more?
October 12th, 2007 at 10:39 am
Any reports on how Longshore is doing?
October 12th, 2007 at 11:15 am
I’ve been wondering/worrying about the same thing, CaliforniaPete. Just how good is OSU defense? Do the numbers reflect a really good OSU defense or more lousy opponent offenses? My guess is both
Having watched a couple OSU games this season, I know, when the games were over, I had pretty strong feeling that the Beavers **shouldn’t** be much of a problem for Cal. Being a LONGTIME Cal fan, those feelings of relief are tempered with much caution.
I’ve commented elsewhere that I think last year’s Arizona game finally had a plus side: Cal knows what happens when they don’t keep the focus, when they let the other guy hang around too long (this was the problem with Colordo State, too). Appalachian State, Colorado (against Oklahoma), and Stanford have, hopefully, embedded that fact deeper in the Bears’ psyche.
I think everything Cal endured last season, when combined with all this season’s craziness, has paved a very special path for the 2007 Golden Bears.
October 12th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
Riley is the x factor in this one. If he starts (and based on Tedford’s comments its looking like he might) I lose all sense of confidence I have going into this game. In fact, if he does start, I might even give OSU a slight edge because their D seems that good and their pass rush could really mess with the young QB’s timing and poise. I don’t care how Riley has looked in practice–he’s looked overhwelmed every time he’s been on the field so far this year in real games. I hope he proves me wrong.