(Written by kencraw)

The first thing one needs to do when predicting a game like this is figure out what to make of the last game.  Even though Cal lost by about the amount I expected, they lost in a very different fashion than I expected.  I can’t think of the last game a Wilcox Bears team was that mistake prone.  And part of why that was so disappointing was that the Bears mostly seemed to play an even game against Oregon… except for the big mistakes.

There was one exception to that… the pass rush.  Cal couldn’t get a pass rush on Justin Herbert to save their life.  The few times they did, they did it by letting themselves be very exposed in the secondary and Herbert took advantage of it.  So at a minimum it suggests that Cal’s D-Line is a bit suspect against a good O-Line.

Of course it’s tempting to go to Cal and Arizona’s one common opponent thus far.  Arizona was manhandled by BYU at home in their 1st game of the season.  One week later, Cal went to BYU and won, fairing pretty well in the trenches (I won’t go so far as to say they dominated at the line, but I think Cal  got the better end of it).  That would suggest a Cal win, yes?

Well… maybe.  Arizona had a really slow start to the season.  They seem to be improving.  The embarrassing loss to Houston seems to have been a turning point for their team.  So on one level, I tend to discount their BYU performance at this point.  On the other hand, the one part of a team that seems to be less likely to see big changes over the course of the season is the lines.  Linemen win with size and power.  Size and power doesn’t change much from week to week.  Thus there’s reason to believe that Cal’s ability to win against the BYU lines that manhandled Arizona suggests Cal will win in the trenches.

That’s a very good place to be.

If the game was in Berkeley, that would be enough for me.  But Cal dreams go to die in the desert.  At first I was thinking, “Well, maybe the trip to BYU suggests the Bears have gotten over their road woes.”  But then I remembered last season the Bears beat North Carolina on the road early and then proceeded to lose every single conference road game, including two embarrassing ones (Colorado and UCLA).

So ultimately, I don’t have faith in this Bears team to win on the road in conference yet.  I think Arizona and Cal are overall equally matched, as demonstrated by last years double overtime heart breaker in Berkeley.  I think Cal may have a slight advantage on the lines, although I’m concerned the D-Line’s performance against Oregon is a sign of things to come.  I think Arizona is improving.  But I’m also optimistic about the level of play Cal demonstrated against Oregon if they could just clean up those mistakes.  Speaking of which and repeating myself, I’m terrified of a game in Tucson.

Add that all up and I expect another close loss that comes down to the last couple possessions: Cal 27 – Arizona 30.