Power Rankings – week 10
(Written by kencraw)
Updated power rankings after this weekend. Remember my personal criteria (If the team were to continue playing to the level they did last week, here is where they would end up at the end of the season in the conference standings):
- Stanford: Stanford won a signature game against an ever improving USC in a place where very few teams can beat USC. Hard to come up with any reasons not to put them on top, since they’ve beat the other key contenders in the conference minus Oregon. That showdown in two weeks appears to be for the top spot.
- Oregon: Oregon continues to under perform a little bit compared to what was expected of the returning champion. True, they are undefeated in conference play, but based on how they’ve been playing the last few weeks, I don’t expect them to beat either USC or Stanford.
- ASU: The only reason ASU is this high is because they already beat USC and don’t play either Oregon or Washington, at least one of which I expect they’d lose to. Based on how they’re playing right now, they’d be 2nd in the south and 4th overall, but with the schedule and already having beat USC, I can’t put USC above them.
- USC: USC continues to get better and I expect them to win out at this point, including over Oregon. I’m sure they’d like to get a second shot at playing ASU because the way they’re playing right now, I’d fully expect them to win.
- Washington: UW is stuck all the way down here because I have to put ASU above USC. Otherwise I’d have ASU and UW in a dead-heat, although their relative performances last week would probably put ASU on top… at least for one week.
- UCLA: UCLA is officially back from the dead and in theory is still a strong contender for the Pac-12 south title. But let me put that idea to rest. In practice there is NO WAY. Even if they were to pull the upset over ASU, based on their remaining schedule I’d still expect ASU to win, as UCLA still has USC on the docket whereas ASU’s toughest opponent is likely Arizona.
- Arizona: Arizona continues to play much stronger than before Stoops was fired, which frankly continues to surprise me. But whether or not it does, it moves them substantially up the list. I’d put them even higher except for their remaining schedule, which includes USC and ASU (likely losses) and they dug themselves too deep of a hole with the early season struggles.
- WSU: WSU played Oregon strong and that is a big reason for their rise in the standings. One has to believe they’ll beat Cal just based on last week’s results (although I have more hope than some in the Bears being able to rebound). With that win, they’d end up 3-6 in conference play and that loss to San Diego State should weigh heavily on the Wougs minds. In either case, 3-6 should be enough to save Wulff’s job, particularly considering how competitive WSU played in their losses.
- Cal: Based on how they played on Saturday, you’d have to think the Bears didn’t have another win in them. However, OSU played just, if not more, miserably in losing to a team the Bears demolished a week prior. While I think both teams can play much better, and OSU might just beat the Bears, based on that recent performance the Bears would have to come out on top. And since they’ve also recently beat Utah I have to put Cal as the top 2-win (at end of season) team.
- Utah: Utah actually played the best game of the 3 teams in this grouping last week, but for the reasons stated in the Cal line, Cal has to go on top.
- Oregon State: Just when I thought OSU was coming out of their early season funk, they laid a HUGE egg in Salt Lake City. Their loss was even worse than the Bears and they’ll have to get much better to eek out another win in conference play.
- Colorado: Poor Colorado. 13 games in 13 weeks against too many good teams. To make matters worse, while their schedule looked to be getting lighter, just about everyone they still have left is showing signs of improvement right now (Arizona, Utah, UCLA and USC (who they wouldn’t have had a shot at in any case)).
November 1st, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Ken,
Your analysis is always very good. You look at all the objective data and make rational conculsions. I find myself seldom at odds with your insights.
However, I think one area that most fans/analysts undervalue is luck. Believe it or not, there are a few areas where luck can be quantified.
Here’s a good one — we all know that turnovers have significant impact on the outcome of a game. The last three Cal games demonstrate that.
So turnover margin has a correspondingly big impact on the team’s record. Let’s look at the current leaders in turnover margin per game(TMG):
OK St +2.4, LSU +2.1, ASU +1.9 and K State +1.7. See a pattern here? These four teams are doing much better than predicted.
However, it’s true that better teams have better turnover margins because there are just better. Coaching and player execution have a positive impact on turnover margin. We need a way to cancel out the margin that a well coached team should have.
In turns out this is easy to do. Compare a team’s turnover margin from year-to-year. If there is a significant change, then that’s where the luck comes in.
OK State last year had a TMG of +0.9. That is typical for a well coached team with good players. This year the TMG is +2.7. Quality of play can’t account for such a big change in a short time — therefore luck must be at play.
ASU has a TMG of +1.9, last year it was -0.7. That’s a whopping gain of 2.6 in the TMG — that’s huge. It easy to conclude that ASU will not be so lucky next year, or even for the remainder of this year.
The outcome of college football games often are the result of luck. And I feel the last three Cal games demonstrate that very clearly.
Furthermore, some teams just have lucky years. And that means that some teams must have unlucky years. In football, you don’t always make your own luck.
In golf, we credit luck to the fate of the golf gods. I think football is ruled by the golf gods, too.