Optimistically Pessimistic (EMFMV 2010 #3)
(Written by jsnell)
Rehashing Colorado and pre-hashing Nevada, it’s the latest EMFMV podcast with Jason and Ken! We do what we always do: break down the last Cal game unscientifically, discuss other games around the Pac-10 — wow, is UCLA bad or what? — and then preview Cal’s potential “trap game” against Nevada. Plus there’s a secret word and yet more about buses. Join us or die! Okay, that was a little dramatic. Please listen, won’t you?
You can also subscribe to the podcast on iTunes.
September 16th, 2010 at 8:59 am
A pet peeve: Riley is very accurate. He is not *consistent* enough. These are not the same things.
Also, most of Riley’s mistakes in the CU game were forced errors due to pressure. Riley has room for and needs to improve under pressure as he doesn’t have Matt Leinart’s 2005 OL to sit behind (to say the least). But he’s been very accurate when given adequate protection.
September 16th, 2010 at 9:25 am
Quite true abaddon, those are two different things and Riley tends to suffer from the latter. One can debate the practical difference so that’s why I think most people don’t bother with the distinction.
I’ve got to disagree with the pressure bit though. True, every quarterback loses both consistency and accuracy when under pressure, but he had a few throws, particularly in the 1st half, where pressure was not an issue and he still delivered a poor pass. While the O-Line at times isn’t helping him, I think his consistency problems extend beyond pressure issues.
Furthermore, a QB who’s only good when he’s got no pressure, really isn’t that good a QB. It’s part of the job description that you need to do everything while dealing with pressure.
This is all not to say that Riley isn’t doing a reasonable job, but we’ve still seen some inconsistency that is a bit troubling, both with and without pressure.
September 16th, 2010 at 9:38 am
“True, every quarterback loses both consistency and accuracy when under pressure, but he had a few throws, particularly in the 1st half, where pressure was not an issue and he still delivered a poor pass.”
Sure, and Marvin Jones dropped about the easiest pass I’ve ever seen. In percentage terms, I’d say Marvin made a greater percentage of catching mistakes than Riley made throwing mistakes. Does that mean Marvin is a poor pass-catching WR? Clearly not. Expecting perfection is ridiculous. If Riley misses “a few throws” each game that are errors on his part, I’ll gladly accept that.
“Furthermore, a QB who’s only good when he’s got no pressure, really isn’t that good a QB. It’s part of the job description that you need to do everything while dealing with pressure.”
Riley isn’t only good when he’s got no pressure. But there were some games last year where he was absolutely *awful* under heavy pressure. And worse, the heavy pressure got to him such that even on plays when he wasn’t pressured at all, he couldn’t make the play.
If he is unable to improve under heavy pressure and improve his composure when things are going horribly wrong (most notably against USC last year), that will be a big limiting factor for team success this year. We won’t really have any proof of that one way or another until we face a better defense.
One other thin I like: despite being statistically successful, Riley called his performance against CU “average” and said he had some bad throws that he needs to clean up. That doesn’t mean he can, but he is aware that things aren’t perfect by any stretch and that’s a requirement for improvement.
September 16th, 2010 at 10:06 am
I know everyone is referring to Nevada as a better test/indicator type of game, but I think they still pretty much expect us to win. I unfortunately can’t help but occasionally think about what would happen if we actually lost, and in utterly humiliating fashion at that (true blue to the last). There appears to be so much “promise” now, and I’m not sure which sinking feeling would be worse: Cal’s wheels falling off or Niagara Falls in a barrel… Actually Oregon State ’07 was probably a pretty good example.
If Cal does happen to dominate this game, I just hope it translates similarly into later stopping Oregon’s option attack and UCLA’s pistol (oh wait I guess we don’t have to worry about the latter, take THAT baby blue).
(yeah, and if you guys can cheat, so can I)
September 16th, 2010 at 10:14 am
Abaddon, I don’t want to split hairs, but in my mind, consistency is a part of being accurate. If you give a guy 10 footballs and tell him to hit a target on the side of a barn, and four times he hits it dead center and the other six times he misses the entire barn, he’s not accurate. If you give another 10 footballs and he hits the center of the target twice but never further than a yard from the target, THAT’S accurate. In my definition of the term. If you would prefer, let me redefine my judgment of Riley this way: “his accuracy is erratic.” In a way that, say, Aaron Rodgers’ accuracy was/is not.
September 16th, 2010 at 10:17 am
@Valenyal
I suggest you join our new club, the Friends Of Reno, Nevada Interceptions Alliance.
September 16th, 2010 at 10:59 am
I see, that makes sense, except Riley is hitting 65% of his passes (and his PER is #2 in the country last I checked) and he’s not playing against a BARN. Other than that, great analogy.
Riley is certainly not the second coming of AR (who had a piss-poor game against the Eagles last week, by the way) but if that’s the standard we expect our QBs to reach, we’re going to be reaching for a very long time.
September 16th, 2010 at 11:26 am
The field is a barn. Or the receiver. Or something.
I agree with you about waiting for the next Rodgers by the way. I mentioned that on a podcast last year — at some point you just have to get past the fact that we were really lucky to have him and QBs like that don’t come along that often.
Hey, remember Justin Vedder?
September 16th, 2010 at 11:58 am
Yep, Justin gave everything he had, and was unfortunately not up to the task. But frankly I have (some) positive thoughts about almost all ex-Cal players assuming it seems like they tried their best.
September 16th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
I’d just like to agree to the point that Bryan Anger is definitely an NFL Punter. I hope he makes it and that teams are scouting him. I remember his first year, and his kicks were just crazy! I have to say that last year, he was quite inconsistent, but after witnessing that 60+ Yard Punt last Saturday, I just hope he can improve even more this year.
I didn’t hear much comment about Vereen or Mohammed this week… is it because they haven’t really done much?
With all the time with all the early games, might as well stop by Fornia Fortune Cookies and snack up, just down the freeway in Oakland 🙂
September 17th, 2010 at 5:39 am
Riley will do fine this year. I think we can already see some imrpovement. Does he have any interceptions? Did you mention his scrambling?
We all agree that Kevin is no Aaron Rodgers. It’s fair to say he’s a bit prone to pressure. But he does seem to choose the right receiver to throw to.
It’s a good point that defenses play run first with Cal. That explains the OL doing well in pass blocking but having a harder time with the run. Clearly, the offense will go as far as the passing game will take them.
Don’t worry Kevin, while some fans are still against you, many more fans like myself are fornia!
The Nevada game will reveal the quality of Cal’s defense. We’ll learn how effective the more agressive strategy will be against an offense that is on the Pac 10 level.
Cal’s offense should overpower Nevada’s undersized defense. Riley should have plenty of time to throw. This could set up a strong, second half running game.
Cal is a sure bet to beat the point spread in Reno.