(Written by kencraw)

Well, it’s game day and I can’t quite make up my mind how scared I am of Oregon State. My co-worker who’s a relatively fair OSU alum thinks that Canfield is going to be a real problem for the Bears. He thinks the Bears are going to either have to stop the Rodger brothers at the line of scrimmage and risk getting burned by Canfield downfield, or keep everything in front of them and let the Rodgers brother nickle and time them to death with the occasional big play that’ll kill the Bears. In some sense I’m inclined to agree that if the Beavers win, that’s about what it’s going to come down to.

At the same time, this has the makings of a Pac-10 shootout. There’s a reason that the over/under is at 61 (it averages in the low 50’s for most games).

I like the Bears chances in a shootout. The Beavers might have the Rodgers brothers, but we’ve got a much bigger family of explosive players than OSU. At the same time, the Bear defense is more opportunistic than OSU’s and is more likely to come up with the big turnover. They’re also more likely to force a lot of redzone field-goals when things get more dicey for the passing game. The running game is more important in the redzone and the Bears have the edge in that. These edges, both for the Bears and the Beavers, become most obvious when you look at the statistical preview I did over at BearTerritory.net (subscription required).

Finally, don’t think too much about the history of this match up. Yes, the Beavers are undefeated against Tedford in Berkeley and they’re on a 2 game winning streak, but the Bears were on a 3 game winning streak over the Ducks including a recent victory in Eugene and we saw how that worked out for the Bears. Does anyone really think that if Longshore was healthy against OSU in 2007 the Bears wouldn’t have won that game? They nearly won with a redshirt Freshman QB for who the game didn’t start slowing down until the 4th quarter. Add in that in 2005 the Bears were Booya handicapped and all of a sudden the Beavers winning streak in Berkeley makes a lot more sense and isn’t so intimidating. In each game in Berekely going back to 2003 the Bears have been breaking in a new QB for the OSU game (in 2003 it was Aaron Rodger’s 3rd start overall and he had sat most of the 2nd half of the USC game the preceding week) and the Beavers beat the Bears with press coverage and daring the Bears to beat them over the top.

Going to the games in Corvallis, the Bears destroyed the Beavers in 2004 and 2006, so it’s not like the Beavers “have the Bear’s number”. The game last year was competitive and the Corvallis home field advantage was an important factor. Based solely on last years game, I think if you play that same game in Berkeley, Cal likely wins. Add in that OSU has lost far more talent since then than the Bears and it’s not exactly like past history suggests a Beaver victory even though that’s the way it seems.

The “Beaver struggles” are more like the difficulty Cal has had beating UCLA in the Rose Bowl. The sample size is small and there’s lots of extenuating circumstances. We all saw how that worked out this year in the Rose Bowl. In the end they actually play the game instead of just counting on history to determine the outcome. Most of the time, the better team wins despite what history may have to say.

So, take heart. There’s no jinx here. The statistics suggest an even match up. The recent match ups and talent changes suggest Cal should do well. And finally, the game is in Berkeley where the Bears play very well.

Bring your fan A-Game today and expect a good game with the Bears coming out on top: 35-28