Oregon game preview
(Written by kencraw)
Well, I keep going back and forth on this game.
On the one hand, Oregon has had a LOT of problems to date and they’ve been masked by just how weak their opponents the last two weeks have been. Both of their lines are not getting the job done and there have been mistakes galore on the offense with turnovers. Then when you look at the statistics in my statistical preview article over at BearTerritory.net (subscription required) it paints an even more ugly picture for the Ducks.
But through it all I’ve had this lingering feeling in the back of my head that the Ducks could just be a sleeping giant. Well, not quite a giant, but a large guy that you don’t want to mess with on their home turf. Then I re-watched the 2008 match up between the Bears and the Ducks last night and was struck by just how potent the Oregon offense was. It’s really hard to tell because there are so many variables, but the Bears may not have won that game if it wasn’t The Lake Bowl. All of a sudden I wasn’t feeling so good about the game.
At the same time, this isn’t the same Oregon team. Gone are Reed who caused all kinds of trouble in the Cal backfield and Byrd who caused all kinds of trouble in the secondary. The lines have been decimated. So, this isn’t the same team that impressed last year.
In the end, I keep coming back to Masoli’s throwing problems. If Masoli can’t prove that he can hurt the Bears through the air, the Bears will have no problems plugging up the Oregon running game. So, since the way I see it, Masoli lost something in the offseason with his passing game, I think the Bears are going to be able to shutdown Oregon’s offense. Add in Cal’s offensive balance that they didn’t have last year, combined with the Cal offensive line being able to likely win the line of scrimmage battle and I think the Bears win this one, probably easier than my heart is willing to believe.
Bears 31, Ducks 20
September 25th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Good analysis. Although you missed spelled week, which is pretty weak. 😉
I’m guessing your score prediction is accurate, but is that on a neutral field? What about the Autzen factor?
September 25th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
I think both teams will come into the game with similar strategies on defense. (For totally different reasons) Oregon and Cal will both stack the box to stop the run. Oregon, because they need to stop Best; Cal, because they want to force the struggling Masoli to a passing version of the dual threat that he is. Although the stats of both teams are night and day (advantage: Cal), keep in mind the quality of opponents these teams have faced. Maryland? Eastern Washington? Even Minnesota…. not such an intimidating start to the season. Now look at Oregon’s schedule so far… @ now #8 BSU, Purdue, and then #18 Utah. Night and day. All I’m saying is that Oregon is prepared for this game, and wants this game BAD. Is Cal ready for the “Throwback” Uni’s and a fired up Autzen? We will see at 12:30pm tomorrow… I respect Cal and their program… but I do NOT fear them.
GO DUCKS!!!!!
September 25th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
I’m kinda with you on this one, Ken. My head says the Bears look like a 2-score favorite, but my heart says this’ll be another nail-biter.
September 25th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
TwistaDuck-
I will grant you that the schedule strength for the two programs is different, but your characterization as night and day is off the mark IMHO.
@ BSU well I wouldn’t go pounding my chest about that one cause of just how terrible the ducks looked against a team that just kept letting them stay around.
Purdue you barely beat, then went on to lose to Northern Illinois – sounds like a weak competition at home, very similar to Maryland who Cal crushed.
As for Utah, well I think you better remember that #18 cause you’ll never see it again on that team this year – they have not looked good all year and I see another 3 losses plus on their schedule.
Cal has gone half way across the country and defeated a solid team. Fortunately for Oregon this is played at home or I think Cal wins by 2-3 touchdowns. At home it will be a much closer game – momentum and confidence are funny things, if Cal gets down early it could be a long day. If Cal gets up early I don’t see Oregon coming close.
September 25th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
I see this as the game that the Ducks shake the Bears jinx they’ve had the past few years. You know they are going to be fired up, and I don’t think they are as bad as their stats indicate. I’m seeing a close game that goes the Ducks way in the friendly confines of Autzen: 31-28.
I really hope that I am wrong.
September 25th, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Mr. Crawford. Again, you seem to be copying for my score predictions. Let’s hope for both our sakes, we’re both right. 🙂
September 25th, 2009 at 9:34 pm
I was feeling borderline over-confident before reading this post, now I’m all anxious. If you look at this purely from a football perspective Cal wins relatively easily, but the revenge factor combined with Autzen freaks me out.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:33 am
Matt, yeah, that was pretty weak. The downsides of being so busy when you just have to push the publish button because you’re run out of time to re-read and re-edit.
TwistADuck, the prediction is for the game on this site. After doing reasonably well on the road last week and not struggling in Autzen two years ago, I think the Bears will be able to handle the very difficult environment in Autzen. I would have picked a bigger win in Berkeley.
Also, while Cal’s opponents have been weaker than I’d like, I think you’re WAY over appreciating the strength of Oregon’s opponents. I don’t think Purdue is any better than Maryland and Utah was only ranked 18th as a “obligation rank” because of how they finished last year. You should always be suspicious of your own thoughts when you’re being inconsistent with “now ranked” for some teams and “then ranked” for others. Utah is unranked right now for a reason.
Bub, that’s my job in life I think, to keep people who are borderline over-confident not just grounded, but curled up in a ball cowering in fear.
September 26th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
@ Ken Crawford,
I hate to brag, only because Cal fans are so nice, but maybe you need to take a little of your own medicine and start underestimating your own team a little bit? Hm? Maybe that should be your job in life?
Purdue is MILES ahead of Maryland. All three of the ducks pre-conference match-ups would dominate all three of Cal’s.
I would have picked a slightly lesser win in Berkley.
42-3
The ducks DESTROY the “#6” California golden bears.
TIME TO GO CURL UP AND COWER IN A BALL OF FEAR. For one week. Then come out into the sunshine and rip $C a new one and win out.
@ Javid. Now go win the Heisman. I only wanted you to have a mysterious inability to get past the line of scrimmage for four quarters. I guess so did the ducks’ d-line…
We owe you that for the two near-victories of the last two years. Now go home and learn how to play offense against a good team. And maybe learn some humility while you’re at it.
GO DUCKS.
September 26th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Ray, it’s you who needs to go learn some humility. Try not kicking people when they’re down for a start.
Every single statement I made was defensible and you’re over the top rhetoric is not even worth responding to.
If you know any history of my blogging you’ll know that I have a very realistic sense of the team and don’t over-estimate them on average, more the opposite. I didn’t think they’d do as well against their previous opponents as they did. Go look it up. It’s right there on the blog and feel no need to defend myself further.
You on the other hand, chose to come here and rag on some Cal fans while they’re down and accuse them of a lack of humility because they thought their team would win. Well done, jackass.