(Written by kencraw)

My weekly post-game OTRH podcast is ready. Have a listen. Here are the list of coach and player quotes at the end after my commentary:

Tedford on offensive struggles
Tedford on pass protection breakdowns
Tedford on Rodger’s performance
Tedford on OSU’s kickoff return
Tedford on schematic failures on kick returns
Tedford on Anger’s struggles
Tedford on things that need to improve
Tedford on regrouping after game
Tedford on Riley’s performance
Tedford on Big Game starter (Riley)
Follett on being frustrated
Follett on refs
Follett on Rodgers
Follett with more on Rodgers
Best on bad field position
Best on touchdown run
Best on OSU’s defensive line slants
Best on getting Ax back
Best on frustrations
Best on kickoff return decisions
Best on dropped pass
Best on OSU’s kickoff return
Best on what offense needs to do to improve
Best on team’s mood
Best on difference from last year
Ross on frustration
Ross on what offense needs to do to improve
Ross on decision to do WR pass
Ross on Boateng being open on WR pass
Ross on getting Ax back
Ross on team rebounding
Hagan on kicking game
Hagan on winning Big Game
Hagan on team mentality
Hagan on holes in zone defense
Riley on OSU defense
Riley on limiting mistakes
Riley on coming out strong
Riley on crowd noise
Riley on touchdown to Tucker
Riley on getting Ax back
Riley on avoiding last year’s collapse
Riley on pass rush
Riley on playing back home
Riley on mentality of team
Riley on OSU’s defensive line
Riley on needing a last minute drive like last year
Riley on benefit of playing consistently behind center
Riley on losing field-position battle

(Written by kencraw)

Here are my first two Oregon State game articles:

Best, Ross, Bright spots in loss
Frustration Reigns

They are both subscription articles.

(Written by kencraw)

Well, I’m here in sunny Oregon on a beautiful day in Corvalis. Jason is at home watching the game. Let’s get straight to it:

12:31 – (before kickoff): The stadium is 85% full here just before kickoff. It’s supposed to be bursting from the seams before too long here. Spirits are high. They just showed the last play of last years game on the big-screen and the crowd errupted. Lots of fireworks as the OSU Beavers come onto the field.

12:33 – Cal has a REALLY small contingent, maybe 200 people, separated in two areas. They did bring the straw-hat band. The team looks patient as they wait their turn to come down the tunnel to the field. They came on pretty quietly without much booing, as is the norm in Berkeley for the visitors.

12:37 – OSU won toss and deferred.

12:38 (kickoff) – A great return by Best. Only pulled down by his facemask at the OSU 40, giving the Bears the ball at the 26 yard-line. What a great start!

12:39 (14:45) – And then Ross does the impossible bouncing off two tackles to give 1st and goal from the 8. A rough spot to be 1st and goal, but let’s see what they can do. Jason says: “Remember when guys would tackle other guys?”

12:41 (13:05) – TOUCHDOWN! 5 wide worked for the Bears. Much better than the direct snap to Best on 2nd down. Jason says: “Direct snap trickery. Maybe that’s the answer — the no-QB offense.” And “Can the offense still look inept and yet score?” Looks like it, Jason. The particularly good news is that it shut the crowd up real quick. 7-0

12:45 (12:54) – Well, it doesn’t do much good to have a great kickoff return of your own when you give it right back. Did both teams leave the special teams defenses at home? Jason says, “So, back to even. Like the first 2 minutes never happened.” Yup, including quieting the crowd. 7-7

12:49 (11:35) – That was a really powerful rush for OSU on 3rd down. That’s going to be a problem if the Bears can’t get it under control. Punting for the 1st time and Anger only gets a 39 yarder off, OSU gets ball at own 47.

12:54 (10:03) – Big win for Bears… they’re not the first to blow a timeout for bad clock management!

12:56 (9:24) – Just like playing center-field, huh Syd? A big momentum changing interception gives Bears the ball back. Also should give OSU some gitters about throwing the ball down the field.

12:59 (7:05) – Bears have to punt after getting one 1st down running the ball. Jason says: “Before the game the TV sideline reporter asked Mike Riley how he was going to shut down the “high-powered Cal offense.” I’d like to know where that offense has been hiding, so we could cart it out and then see if OSU could shut it down… This game appears to be on the shoulders of the defense. Welcome to your 2008 Cal Bears.” But Anger does great punt and gets ball down to OSU 11.

1:00 (6:56) – Announcer says crowd is over 45k and a Reser stadium record. It looks pretty darned full now, but they’re not as loud as they were at beginning of game.

1:04 – Jason says: “USC fans are sending me messages encouraging Cal to win. Has it come to this, Trojans?” I think it has. It’s nothing personal, they’ll be rooting for Arizona next week and Oregon after that if we can’t get it done.

1:07 (3:53) – Nearly anther pick. OSU had better be careful. And also a near punt block. Too bad that Syd got tackled right off the bat.

1:09 (2:58) – Bubble screen doesn’t work for Bears either: “Good to see that our first-down play of choice is the still loss of yardage.” Well, there’s a lot of different ways for the coaching staff to ensure that, so they go with the percentages. Next two plays aren’t any better and Anger is back out on the field. Jason says: “So this is three straight quarters of Riley not looking good.” And “So… kick coverage is not strong today.” Horrible, horrible, horrible. The Bears really need to turn the corner. It only took one play: 7-14.

1:15 (1:02) – Vereen got shaft on 1st down and they took away his forward progress for no good reason. Riley does his best to make sure that the Bears do nothing to recover with two off the mark passes. Bears punting again and while we’re on the subject, Anger is looking down right pathetic. 29 yards. He looks like he’s droping the ball too soon and can’t get through it.

1:30 (9:30 2nd) – Lost my blog connection for a while… Beavers drove the entire field including converting a 2nd and 30. Despite numerous mistakes by OSU, the holes in the zone keep letting them off the hook. Jason had tons of comments during “the break” which can be summed up as “ugh”. Thankfully Cal holds them to a field-goal that bounces off the up-right but good. Cal down by 10: 7-17.

1:39 (7:44) – TOUCHDOWN. Some trickery on the fake WR screen to WR pass from Ross to Boateng. “trickery…Ross, player of the game…Ross for QB…And RB…And returner…And punter.” And “Tavecchio with the efficient extra point.
As little space used as possible.” Not sure I agree on the returner bit. Best did better with chance. But you may be right on the rest.

1:42 (7:37) – Although I’m not happy to see Tavecchio trying to be “efficient” on the kickoff too. Luckily the coverage is better. Mohammed ROCKs the QB so hard the ref thinks it had to be a pass the way the ball flew out on 3rd down. Beavers have to punt.

1:47 (5:54) – Tucker has GOT to come up with that catch. That would have been HUGE! Luckily it should help keep the defense honest. Best has great run on 2nd for 3rd and 2 that Bears convert to get new set of downs.

1:52 (3:32) – But Morrah has to out-do Tucker and sink the Bears on 3rd and 4 by dropping a catch that he’s got no excuse for dropping. Bears then decide to go for it, er, botch the punt snap, er, whatever and give the Beaver the ball around their own 40.

1:57 (2:00) – At least the ref is consistent. He took 5 yards away from Rodgers when he tried to get out of the tackle. It was a similar, although not as obvious case against Cal in 1st quarter.

2:01 (1:29) – I’m not sure I like this call of a timeout by Cal. Do we really want another shot before halftime with less than 1 1/2 minutes? And do we really want to give OSU a chance to re-think going for it on 4th and 6 from the 32 instead of trying to kick the long FG?

2:04 (1:21) – OK Bears, just nothing stupid like a turnover here. Although something more productive than these first two plays would be appreciated… and they take the knee. Halftime score: 14-17.

2:07 (Halftime) – Jason jumps in with the first Valuable Halftime Analysis (brought to you by Charlie Brown for Congress – let the recount continue!): “For a team that has played as terribly as Cal has, it is a miracle that they’re this close.” Got to agree with that. The Bears seem to have gotten their act together in the 2nd quarter. A little trickery shows the Bears are going to keep the play calling diverse. The defense is starting to clamp down and if a few of OSU’s mistakes could bite them a little harder, the Bears could get back in this one. A key possession is the one right after the break because OSU scoring would really hurt. Riley seems to be a 2nd half QB so perhaps he can clean up his act… and then the receivers need to, you know, catch the ball… and stuff.

2:20 – Man, at OSU the ENTIRE fan base leaves their seats at halftime. There were literally 1 out of 15 seats full a couple minutes ago. Theyr’e all out in the parking lot drinking. I know, I know, what’s a parking lot?

2:29 (Start of 3rd) – What!?! Seriously, how do you kick it THAT badly. Nice way to start, giving OSU the ball at the 40.

2:36 (12:36) – There seems to be some corelation between OSU driving and my blog connection… In any case, this will be a key goal-line stand for Bears if they can pull it off. Down by 6 is huge compared to down by 10.

2:39 (11:45) – Well, it wasn’t pretty but the hold does keep the game in reach. Bears down by 6: 14-20.

2:47 (10:22) – Unbelievable. This review booth is ridiculous. The OSU guy who caught the ball out of bounds isn’t over-turned. And then when the ball is clearly moving forward the review both calls it a fumble. Just ridiculous. I don’t mind much the miss on the field. We’re all human, particularly with the time constraints of a ref. But there is no excuse in the booth for, you know, actually seeing something approaching reality.

2:49 (9:20) – On the plus side Anger is still shanking the ball.

2:51 (8:06) – Horrible pursuit by the Bears on two reverses. Both plays the contain men where there and both times they didn’t get there. Now the game is very much in jeopardy. The Bears need a touchdown ASAP and find some ability to hold the OSU offense. This is getting ugly… and Jason is off at a birthday party… notice how these road games always go downhill after he leaves, coincidence?

2:56 (7:38) – Riley’s got to get rid of that ball. Just can’t take this many sacks. Hopefully he can continue to throw like that last ball that bailed out the Bears. 1st down!

2:58 (6:43) – TOUCHDOWN! Well for once the offense did there part and Best gets his obligatory big run for a TD run for this game. Now it’s back to 6 points. That’s workable if the defense can get their act together.

3:00 (6:37) – Tedford yanks Tavecchio for Kay, who at least keeps it in-bounds… albeit at the 17. It’s really not this hard guys.

3:02 (5:30) – Defense holds. No thanks to Conte who comes off his guy to nearly give up the 1st down. Let’s see if the offense can keep the ball moving.

3:06 (4:40) – Man, it’s AMAZING what one penalty can do. The Bears were looking good with 2nd and 4. Then a hold (questionable call too) puts the Bears back and all of a sudden it’s a passing situation and the Beaver defense can force a punt. Defense needs another hold here…

3:12 (end of 3rd) – Well, the defense is starting to look tired and Rodgers is wearing them down. He’s a great runner. I don’t know how OSU keeps finding these great backs but their lineage is incredible considering their recruiting ‘station’. I’m a big believer in taking a timeout on defense when the boys in the trenches look tired. I would have taken it about 2 minutes prior to this when OSU was just out of field-goal range. Now the Beavers are well inside field-goal range and even holding to a field-goal will still put OSU up by two scores. I don’t know that the Cal offense has two 4th quarter scores in them.

3:19 (14:11 4th) Well the Bears get a minor break and the replay booth proves they have eyes overturning a difficult call on the field. Then the REAL break is that OSU misses the field-goal. The Bears are only down by one score and that’s HUGE. The offense needs to take advantage of this!

3:25 (12:40) But they don’t. Punting again. Anger finally punts a good one but the coverage is completely jammed at the line and a big run-back ensues. Thankfully a block in the back sinks OSU’s return and they get the ball at their own 37. Pretty good considering Cal kicked from within their own 5.

3:28 (10:56) Bear defense still looks tired. Perhaps they get it done here, but even if they do, the way the clock is moving, the Bears have two possessions at the most left to score.

3:30 (9:45) Punt is nearly blocked after high snap. They get it off and it rolls down to 12 yard-line. OK Bears. The time is now. You’ve got to find some offense.

3:36 (7:49) I know the Bears need to show some run balance, but it’s not working. I’m not saying you don’t mix it in to keep them honest, but it’s still frustrating the ineffectiveness of the run game. The patchwork offensive line is a problem. Luckily the holes in the passing defense are there when they pass. If only Riley can get enough time to find them.

3:39 (7:01) Another dropped ball kills the Bears again. That was a first down waiting to happen if Best could have just held on. Punting again. The Bears probably get one more shot at this. The talent is there, they just need to execute.

3:42 (6:30) Rodgers is wearing down the Bears. I’m really impressed with his ability to both slip through very small holes but also to power his way forward. He’s another great OSU back in the making as a freshman.

3:45 (4:20) That might have been a back-breaker. Completing a pass for a 1st down when the Bears finally had a break with the false start. Moevao had ALL DAY to throw with no pressure. Zone defenses don’t do well with that.

3:47 (2:25) Moevao makes life real it by getting a first down with just over 2 minutes left and only 1 timeout left for Cal.

I’m going to have to wrap up this LiveBlog now to go down to the field to do player and coach interviews.

(Written by kencraw)

I’ve got a pet theory running about the Bears playing on grass as opposed to artificial turf. It seems the Bears have a lot more trouble when they play on grass than when the play on turf. So, in pursuit of some data about this, I got game data from the entire Tedford era to see how they did on grass versus how they did on turf.

The scariest numbers are the last 3 years, 2006 to 2008. The Bears are 0-9 on grass during the regular season. That compares to 5-10 (33%) overall on the road (of course all home games are played on artificial turf) for the same span. Turn that same comparison over and the Bears are 5-1 (83%) on the road playing on turf, the only loss being to Washington last year towards the end of the slide.

In fairness, if you include earlier years and bowl games, the numbers are more balanced. The Bears are 12-15 (44%) on grass during the Tedford years while they are 23-20 (53%) overall on the road. However, if you just look at the turf road games, the Bears are 11-5 (69%). Seeing as how the overall win record of the Bears during the same time is 66%, it sure feels like the Bears do just fine on the road when the surface is artificial turf.

Are these numbers conclusive? No, they’re not. It could just be that the best teams the Bears face on the road play on grass, USC being an obvious example. However, if one is searching for reasons that the Bears struggle against teams like UCLA, Arizona, Maryland and even Tennessee on the road but seem to do much better against teams like Oregon and Oregon State, this might be another reason to consider.

It sure feels to me like the Bears struggle on grass far more than just on the road.

(Written by kencraw)

OK, there’s only one way and it takes a LOT. But just so it’s out there, assuming USC doesn’t lose to both Stanford and UCLA, ALL of the below must happen:

1. Cal must win out
2. Either Stanford or UCLA must beat USC
3. OSU must win the rest of their games (besides Cal)
4. Arizona must LOSE the rest of their games
5. If UCLA beats USC, they must win the rest of their games

See, it’s not so complicated.

Basically, the key is that there must be a 3 way “triangle of losses” tie between USC, Cal and Oregon State. In that scenario, where Cal beat Oregon State who beat USC who beat Cal (thus the triangle), one or more of the teams will get “bumped” from the tie-breaker based on who their other loss is too. Being specific, whoever lost to the team with the highest conference record is out of contention.

Cal lost to Arizona and Oregon State lost to Stanford. So, we need whoever USC loses to, to have a better conference record than Arizona. Arizona is 4-2 in conference, so the worst they can do is 4-5. That means whoever of Stanford or UCLA must have a record of 5-4 for Cal to have a shot. Stanford would be 5-4 if the beat USC but lose to Cal, so they’d work. In that case, both USC and Oregon State would be eliminated if Arizona loses out. UCLA is 2-4 and still has games against Washington, Arizona State and USC. They could definitely beat the first two teams, so the game versus USC could still matter if they could pull it off.

Of course, if USC goes into a free-fall and loses to both Stanford and UCLA, Cal would control their own destiny by beating Oregon State, so I guess in theory, that’s road #2 to the Rose Bowl.

Sadly, if everything but the Arizona losing streak happens (i.e. they just win one game), USC would go to the Rose Bowl based on their BCS ranking being the highest.

(Written by kencraw)

My Oregon State Press Conference and practice podcast is now posted over at BearTerritory.net:

http://cal.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=876291

As with all my podcasts, it is free to everyone.

(Written by kencraw)

Well, it’s long, it’s painful, but it’s honest. My OTRH podcast is ready for listening. Here’s the list of quotes after my commentary:

Tedford on overall game
Tedford on receivers being open
Tedford on switch to Riley
Tedford on Longshore’s attitude
Tedford on Longshore’s performance
Tedford on defense’s performance
Tedford on penalties
Tedford on sloppiness and penalties
Tedford on playclock timeouts and noise
Tedford on good that comes from game
Tedford on Riley’s interception
Tedford on Jahvid Best’s health
Tedford on USC touchdown replay
Tedford on defensive hustle
Best on USC defense
Best on his injuries
Best on USC’s linebackers
Best on direct snap play
Williams on defensive performance
Williams on recovering fumble
Williams on defensive gameplan
Williams on never having beaten USC
Williams on mood in locker room
Williams on possibility of Rose Bowl
Williams on game going quick
Williams on bobbled USC touchdown
Williams on playing impressively
Williams on it not being enough
Mack on errors and mistakes
Mack on penalties
Mack on not scoring points
Mack on bouncing back
Riley on interception
Riley on pass rush
Riley on illegal receiver down-field and penalties
Riley on impact of penalties
Riley on his head
Riley on game-plan
Riley on USC’s defense
Riley on pass rush and rushing throws

(Written by kencraw)

Here are the published articles I wrote for the USC game for BearTerritory.net:

Miscues too much to overcome

Defense bright spot in loss

Both are free articles this time.

I did record a podcast on the drive home from LA. I’ll be putting it together over the next day or so, so expect to see that posted here at EMFMV by mid-day Tuesday (with player and coach quotes).

(Written by jsnell)

3:13 PT: This is Jason in scenic Mill Valley, California. Ken Crawford is in the belly of the beast, at the Los Angeles Coliseum, for today’s game. We’ll both be reporting live here when the game begins. Feel free to chat in the comments. And Philip Michaels will join us from Alameda.

3:15 PT: Ken reports that “the field is nice and dry, as well as very shortly cut. I think that’s good for the Bears.”

4:21 PT: Ken reports that USC’s fans are cheering the scoreboard, namely Penn State’s loss and the Alabama-LSU game going into overtime. Ken: “This is why I’m not completely convinced that USC won’t overlook this game.”

4:36 PT: Uni watch: Ken reports that the Bears are wearing their white shirts and blue pants.

5:07 PT: And we’re on the air on ABC, in highly-defined splendor. “This isn’t gonna go well,” my wife says. The opening announcer talks about how few of these Cal-USC meetings have been as important as today’s. Which I guess is true, unless you consider three of the last five meetings… Ken: “The L.A. Coliseum is one LOUD stadium.”

5:14 PT: Ken: “The Bears didn’t waste any time having an important 3rd down.” And Best falls down. Maybe not the time for trickery. Ken: “And didn’t waste any time botching it… bad snap by Mack, odd.” Phil chimes in: “I consider it a moral victory that I turned on the TV and Cal is not yet behind. Just in time to see that hideous play call on third and short.” Ken: “And while we’re the topic, have I ever mentioned I HATE the direct snap?”

5:18 PT: Trojans offense making it look easy as they drive into the red zone. Ken: “Right now the Bears are getting outrun and outhustled.”

5:19 PT: Nice defense in the end zone by Hagan. On comes… Buehler? Buehler? Ben Stein says it’s good. USC 3, Cal 0. Phil: “Just defend, Darien, don’t talk.” Ken: “Bears dodged a bullet there forcing the FG attempt.” The defense definitely stiffened at the end there.

5:23 PT: Kickoff out of the back of the end zone. Ken: “Could we buy like 5 yards of USC’s kicker’s leg? He doesn’t need it.” Hey, Kenny Norton is on the sideline. Phil: “I am always sad when they cut to Ken Norton Jr. on the sideline, and he’s not wearing his cowboy hat.”

5:26 PT: Ken: “Looks like the Bears are going to have to, you know, actually throw the ball down the field.” Nice pass there to Boateng. Yeah, the run isn’t working so well so far.

5:27 PT: Longshore trips and falls. That’s the dexterity we’ve come to expect from Longshore. And then he calls a timeout. Phil: “Longshore is vying to be the first Cal QB to start in three USC games and look progressively worse in each one.”

5:29 PT: We’ve broken away for a Taco Bell score update. Phil: “Having eaten at a Taco Bell today, I’ve been having Taco Bell updates all afternoon. If you get my meaning.” Did I mention that I am fortunate that Phil is in Alameda and I am in Mill Valley?

5:30 PT: Oh, yes, USC Band, keep playing that song. I want them to cut over there and show a guy pushing a button on an iPod. There really is no USC band, is there? Phil: “Not true. I dated a girl in the USC band. Or more to the point, went out on one date with the girl in the USC band. (They do not like it when you make fun of their playlist.)” I would only be impressed if you dated a song girl, Phil.

5:32 PT: Cal has to punt after an incompletion on third down. Ken: “The receiver needs to keep coming back to that ball.  Then it’s a first down.”

5:32 PT: I find I am strangely not nervous about this game. That’s probably because I feel like Cal’s playing with the house’s money here. I don’t expect them to win, so if they play well, that’s a bonus. Now if they keep it close I will get nervous later on.

5:35 PT: Big 27-yard run on 2nd and 16. Yeah, that’s not good, Cal defense. Phil: “Apparently, the game plan is to have USC exhaust itself.” Ken: “Those are the moments that the defense needs to convert. They had 2nd and 16 on a penalty and needed to force a punt.”

5:38 PT:It’s actually hard to believe that Cal once beat USC. Long ago. In 2003. In a game that was replayed on ESPN Classic last night. Visualize.

5:39 PT (1:31 1st Quarter): Hey! Squad hit! USC has to punt. Wouldja look at that. Ken: “Luckily the Trojans game the Bears a rain-check with that false start and the Bears were able to force the punt. Interesting to see the D-Line go ‘narrow’ and that seemed to confuse the USC O-Line.”

5:42 PT: Ross drops a pass from Longshore for an easy first down. This is how good USC is: every drop feels like you’re letting the game slip away. But Best gets a first down on an 11-yard completion to Best while Longshore is running to his right. Best fights for the first – well done.

5:44 PT: And the first quarter ends with a 21-yard completion to Morrah to get Cal into USC territory! Ken: “The Bears need to throw the ball A LOT. USC is geared towards stuffing the run. They need to force them to be more balanced.” Phil: “1st qtr summary: kept it close, mantained dignity.” And that’s… one to grow on. USC 3, Cal 0.

5:47 PT: And we’re back for the second quarter. Impressive Boateng reception, hit so hard that his helmet came off (though he wears it loose, I believe) but holding on to the ball. Phil: “Cal players must lead the league in lost helmets. Use the straps. I invented them for a reason.”

5:49 PT: Longshore chased, should just throw it away, tries to complete a meaningless pass, and has it picked off. He is saved only by a stupid roughing the passer penalty against USC. Phil: “hooray negated turnovers! Ticky-tack, but I’ll take it.” Terrible judgment by Longshore, though. A clear force, as are many of his interceptions.

5:51 PT (2nd Q, 12:59): Ken: “USC fans are irate. But that was definitely roughing the passer. That was the right call. It’s one thing to continue with your momentum after the throw. It’s another thing to shove after the ball is released. That’s going to get called every time. Now, the interception… ugly.”

5:54 PT (2nd Q, 12:15): Phil: “not sure I agree with the idea that you call a timeout to yell at a guy.” Yeah, I think Pete Carroll’s anger got the best of him there. And the push on Longshore was while the ball was in the air. Then again, maybe he’s just trying to set up the officials for some sympathy later.

5:55 PT: Illegal snap. Ken: “OK, that’s twice I’ve heard that penalty. What does that mean, he moved the ball but didn’t snap it.”

5:56 PT: Longshore makes a terrible, terrible pass — just a Three Flies Up jump ball. Intercepted by USC. What in the world is he doing? And yet again, USC blows a turnover via a pass interference penalty. And a dumb one — the pick would have happened anyway. Ken: “THAT’S TWICE!” Phil: “hooray negated turn… you know the rest.”

5:57 PT (2nd, 10:53): Ken: “Refs are calling a very tight game.” No kidding. Five USC penalties and Cal’s still trailing here. Gotta take advantage, Bears. Vereen goes inside the 10, but that’ll be another flag — holding on Cal. Back we go. Ken: “VERY tight.”

5:59 PT: Great play on 1st and 25: an inside hand-off to gain a yard. Nice! 24 more of those…

6:00 PT: Screen to Best, and it’s sniffed out immediately. Great play on USC’s part. Ken: “Screens don’t work against experienced and fast line-backers.”

6:01 PT: Sean McDonough has just declared that Cal is excellently running down the clock. That’s just what we’re doing. Running out the clock in the second quarter. Later we’ll hide the ball and replace it with a squeaky toy. Score with that, USC!

6:03 PT (2nd, 8:53): On third and forever, they run short. Ken: “Ah, the classic setup a field-goal attempt play.” Tavecchio kicks it through! Our endless drive is over. Cal 3, USC 3. Phil: “well, it’s three points. even if it looked like a Tim Wakefield pitch.”

6:05 PT (2nd, 8:14): Ken: “An upside to that drive: took 8 minutes off the clock. A short game is good for the underdog.”

6:08 PT: Big gain for USC. Apparently the strategy is, let a guy be totally open and then don’t tackle him.

6:11 PT (2nd, 5:01): Ken: “Very unusual for the Bears.  Gerenally their zone defense is pretty good about not having hugely missed assignments.” Beautiful pass from Sanchez to Turner, Touchdown Trojans! USC 10, Cal 3. Ken: “Williams need to turn around and look for that ball.” Phil: “I, for one, welcome our USC overlords.”

6:15 PT: So that USC touchdown? Maybe not a touchdown. But it’s too late now. Also, Longshore’s accuracy has evaporated. One pass way low, one a bit too high but still caught. What’s up, Nate?

6:19 PT: Washington and Arizona State are tied 16-16 in the 3rd quarter. Before the game Ken predicted this might be the win for Washington, given how terrible ASU had been this year. Ken: “Excellent.  My evil prediction may just come true!” Don’t count Washington out, Ken. They still might blow it.

6:23 PT (2nd, 1:43): Carroll challenges a call, but it’s not overturned. First down Bears. Phil: “I’m sure Pete Carroll is a lovely man. And yet. Highly punchable. His punchability rating is off the charts.” Ken: “I think you could make a better argument for fumble than incomplete. But a Bear picked it up.” Nah, it was totally incomplete.

6:25 PT (2nd, 1:12): Another mistargeted pass from Longshore, incomplete, to the umpire. Screen to Ross, and again, USC is way too fast for that. Ross did a great job to gain 2 yards. Ken: “The Bears are not doing anything to stretch the field vertically like they were in the 1st quarter.”

6:26 PT: Oh, Nate. You fell down. Again. While chased. Ken: “Dexterity at its best, eh Jason?” Feet are complicated, Ken. Very complicated. Phil: “Oh, Lord. Someone revive Riley. Get Dr. Spaceman to give him medical clearance.”

6:29 PT: Cal punts and USC gets a couple shots at it. On the screen, ABC decides to keep the camera on Sanchez. We’re watching him watch the play! See how experimental it is! Phil: “stellar camera work.” It’s like this film was directed by Jean-Pierre Gorin.

6:31 PT (Halftime): And the half ends on a sack. Revenge!! Halftime. USC 10, Cal 3. Phil: “Well, it could be worse.” And it’s time for me to put my kids to bed. See you after the break.

6:39 PT: Ken’s Halftime Thoughts: “Bears are ‘kinda’ in this game. They need to make some substantial halftime adjustments. They need to stretch the field. They need to clean up the missed assignments. They need to find just a little bit more heart on defense and tackle a bit more consistently. But a couple of additional lucky breaks in the 2nd half coupled with those adjustments could result in a Bear win. I wouldn’t quite be headed to the mid-game betting sites with that, though.”

6:40 PT: There are lots of Cal home games where I feel that Cal was never really in jeopardy for the entire game. That’s sort of how I feel here — Cal’s hanging around, yet they don’t really seem to be threatening USC.

6:41 PT: So while I was driving my parents to Sonora today so they could empty their storage shed and complete their move to their new house, my father pointed out that he went to dental school with two members of Cal’s last Rose Bowl team. Pretty cool.

6:53 PT: And we’re back. And Tavecchio starts with a kick out of bounds. Auspicious!

6:54 PT: I love how the announcers are in awe of USC. I mean, yeah, they’re great. But listening to the announcers you’d think that USC could score on any play if they wanted, but they only score sometimes so that they don’t confuse the fans and embarrass the NCAA.

6:55 PT: USC for a nice gain. Ken: “OK, it’s a soften the blow piece of good news, but the good news is that the Bears are having good backside and secondary pursuit to prevent the big play. That run would have been a TD against less determined teams.”

6:56 PT: Sean McDonough says that blogs have been critical about the USC offense. Blogs? Critical? Well in that case, the USC offense sucks. There, what he said is provably true. And on cue, USC punts!

6:57 PT: And Kevin Riley is in. Let’s hope he’s still not goofy.

6:58 PT (3rd, 12:12): And just like that, Riley throws a pass complete for a first down. That’s the way, Riley.

6:59 PT: I like the switch to Riley, assuming he’s not seeing double out there — or invisible aliens. He gives the offense that scrambling dimension, and Nate has not been very accurate so far. Ken: “I was pestering the guys here in the booth that Tedford might make the switch.  Nobody believed me.” Ken knows his stuff, folks.

7:00 PT: Ken: “Well, it’s a big guessing game.  I was the one on the other side at the Arizona game who wouldn’t believe that Tedford was going to switch.” Riley scrambles, coming just short of a first down. Phil: “Not to pick on Nate, but he would have thrown about three different interceptions on that play.” Now here we go again — another time out due to running out of time on the play clock. Oh well.

7:02 PT: Just got accused on the Twitter of being partisan in my liveblogging. Big Cal logo up top, folks. Truth in advertising.

7:03 PT (3rd, 11:16): Deep throw on third and short, and a fantastic one-armed catch by Tucker. Wow. Have we finally found a WR?

7:04 PT (3rd, 11:01): Cal throws a beautiful touchdown pass, but they’re going to bring it back on the — you guessed it — penalty. Ineligible downfield. That’s just… terrible. Phil: “It was fun while it lasted.” Ken: “What goes around comes around.” Ken: “While a blow, the fact that the Bears marched so easily just put the Trojans on notice.”

7:06 PT: ABC has now certified that the penalty on the touchdown pass was complete B.S. Oh well — I guess it all evens out, right? Right??

7:08 PT (3rd, 10:12): And now a PI call on USC on 3rd and long. Phil: “flags work in our benefit! What a horribly played football game.” And so now it’s first down Cal. What a weird, messy game.

7:09 PT: Wow, Ross leaps over guys and gains 5. Phil: “Most dramatic four-yard gain ever.”

7:10 PT (3rd, 9:15): Pass tipped up and intercepted by USC in the end zone. Oh well. Not really Riley’s fault. It was fun while it lasted. Ken: “That was the right play just needed to float it a bit more so it wouldn’t be tipped. Otherwise it was a TD.” And to add insult to injury, the USC band plays “All Right Now.”

7:12 PT: So looking at these crowd shots… Am I right to think that you can send in an 8 x 10 glossy as a USC application?

7:13 PT: Ken: “Important 3rd down here.” Flag down, incomplete pass under pressure by Sanchez. And… penalty is against USC. Penalty declined. USC will have to punt.

7:15 PT: This liveblog is brought to you by Sierra Nevada Porter and the last of my wife’s chili. My wife’s chili: It’s What Was For Dinner.

7:17 PT: Riley sacked! Ken: “That’s one area where Longshore is a better QB. He gets rid of that ball.” Yeah, that’s Riley’s inexperience there.

7:18 PT: Phil’s portion of this liveblog is brought to you by Pacifico Beer and, uh, the Oyster. The kind you eat.

7:19 PT (3rd, 6:20): Third and 12. Riley throws it and it’s caught but dropped because he got smashed by the defender. Hard to ask the WRs to catch all of those. Anger must punt. Don’t Punt Back In Anger.

7:21 PT: Ken: “Riley needs to get better on these deep out patterns and get the ball there a 1/2 second earlier and to the outside. He’s going to get his receivers killed when in reality they’re doing a great job of getting open.”

7:22 PT: This looks like most of the other recent Cal-USC games. Cal hangs in there for a while and then it all goes wrong at the end.

7:24 PT (3rd, 4:22): Terrible tackling on a gain by USC. Phil: “Cal defended there like they thought we switched over to two-hand touch during the break.” Sack on Sanchez by Alulu with Follett. 3rd and long for USC. Completed, but short of the first down.

7:28 PT: Roughing the passer, and boy, was it. USC player nailed Riley in the neck with his helmet after the ball was away. Dirty play. Phil: “Hooray, roughing the passer! That’s our best play!” And then Best runs for 8 on first down.

7:29 PT: Nice Taufo’ou run. Ken: “It’s been a LONG time since the Bears have run the Fullback chrash. You could tell USC wasn’t expecting it.”

7:31 PT (3rd, :44): Now Cal gets very conservative with the play calling. Ken: “Um Tedford, we don’t just need a field-goal here.” Third and long. Aaand… flag. Of course. Phil: “I see we’ve reached the drive-stalling portion of the drive.”

7:33 PT: Cal punts. Phil: “don’t like the punt here. You’re down seven. in their territory. I know it’s fourth-and-long. But you gotta start going for it.” Ken: “Riley’s gone downhill in these last two drives. Can’t help but wonder if knocks are getting to his recently concussioned head. Particularly the cheap ones.”

7:35 PT: End of Third Quarter.Phil: “This is actually much how I envisioned this game playing out. Cal’s offense being largely inept. The defense keeping us in it. And then, in the fourth quarter, the sadness.” They show the Cal players holding up four fingers. What does that stand for, “The Fourth Quarter Is When It All Falls Apart For Us?” “Oh God, It’s The Fourth Quarter?” Ken’s analysis: “That was a pretty balanced 3rd quarter. The Bears could win this if they stop shooting themselves in the foot.”

7:38 PT: Some pretty weak tackling there, defense. First down USC. Ken: “Bears are starting to get worn down. They need to find an extra burst of heart REAL quick.” Yup. It’s strange, since the offense has actually been on the field a lot. But still, it’s hard to keep USC down. And that’s an understatement.

7:39 PT: Terrible tackling on a 16-yard McNight run, and then– he ran too far, so they stripped the ball. Fumble! Cal ball. Phil: “I was about to complain bitterly about the lack of tackling. But I’m quite happy he was not tackled. Someone hit the spin button too much.” Huzzah! Ken: “That’s the kind of break the Bears needed.” Now to do something with it.

7:42 PT: Ken: “Now, uh-hem, I give you, the up until now missing…. drum roll please… California Golden Bear OFFENSE!” To be fair, USC’s defense has been spectacular this year. Ken: “Yeah, but the plays have been there and the Bears aren’t converting.” Fair enough.

7:43 PT: And… false start. Again. Phil: “The next person that jumps loses their scholarship.” Ken: “Was there like a sale on yellow flags at K-Mart today or something?”

7:45 PT (4th, 12:15): And yet another penalty, this against USC negating a sack on Riley. Apparently Cal’s playcalling here is, chuck it down field. Not a terrible idea at this point, I suppose. Phil: “USC will see our stupid play and raise us another stupid play.”

7:47 PT: Riley to Morrah deep, but he readjusted and couldn’t get it. Hit off his hands. Painful. Punty punty.

7:50 PT: Phil: “The guy in this Holiday Inn Express commercial — not the one eating eggs — plays the evil managing editor in the final season of ‘The Wire.'” Watching these commercials makes me long for the home games where we just stare at the guy with the red vest who’s stopping the game and boo him.

7:50 PT (4th, 10:34): This is the point in the game where USC scores two TDs and puts it away. Just saying. Ken: “11 minutes left. Hold out hope my friend. I’m not ready to face reality yet.”

7:53 PT: Ken: “88523 is today’s attendance. Crowd is not happy to be back at commercial.” Blame Pete Carroll for calling a timeout here. Now who’s running out the clock, eh?

7:55 PT (4th, 9:23): USC fails on the third-down conversation, an incompletion, which means Cal will get the ball back. Syd fair-catches at the 12 yard line.

7:57 PT: Best for no gain up the middle. Ken: “Good call with 9:20 remaining, a run up the gut.” Yeah. And Best is at his best without space. Sure.

7:57 PT: And they follow that up with a sweep to the left. Yeah, that’s it, Cal, establish the running game. Now it’s 3rd and 9 with eight minutes to go. Perfect. How about some 10-yard pass routes instead of bombs and sweeps? And Riley on the overthrow. Fourth down. Phil: “Is there a 3rd QB we can try?”

7:59 PT: Nice punt by Anger. A shame Cal can’t punt itself into the lead. But it can’t. Otherwise Cal would have been undefeated in the Nick Harris In Punt Formation years.

8:00 PT: Pass knocked down by Worrell Williams and almost picked off. So close. And yet, this is USC. At the Coliseum. And so here comes the sadness. And USC gains 17 to midfield on the third-down pass. It’s slipping out of reach…

8:02 PT: Here’s the thing. USC’s defense is remarkable. And yet, Cal has had a bunch of chances. And they just haven’t converted. They have had the chances to beat USC, but they’ve just not been good enough. If the other team is good and you’re not, that’s a recipe for a loss if ever I’ve heard one.

8:04 PT (4th, 5:00): Another first down, to the 25. USC keeps moving the ball, hoping to go up two scores and put it away. Cal is definitely wearing down now. It’ll take a major mistake by USC or a huge play by the Cal defense to make a difference here.

8:05 PT: And another first down, and the clock keeps rolling. Phil: “Essentially any score here ends the game. As Cal’s not going to score twice.” I think they aren’t going to score again, period.

8:09 PT: Touchdown Trojans. USC 17, Cal 3. And it’ll be 24-3 once Cal throws an interception that’s run back for a touchdown on the next drive.

8:11 PT: So these days we get eliminated from the Rose Bowl in November instead of September. Is that progress?

8:13 PT: Painful stat. Riley is 3 for 12. Make it 13. It’s a shame that this year’s great defense has such a weak offense backing it up.

8:16 PT: Riley chucks the ball ineptly on fourth down. Phil: “well, that pretty much sums up the game.” Yeah. So it ends. There’s that sadness Phil was talking about.

8:19 PT: Tedford is frustrated. Phil: “Well, he should be. His team just played 60 minutes of undisciplined football. Who does that reflect upon?”

8:20 PT: So, what’s USC going to do here? Kick the FG? Take a knee? No, they go for it, don’t get it. And Cal will get one exciting play with 8 seconds left.

8:22 PT: What do you do, Taylor Mays? Knock it down. Game Over. USC 17, Cal 3. USC has won seven of the last eight against the Bears. And don’t we know it. Good night, everyone.

(Written by jsnell)

(The following was originally posted before the Cal-USC game on November 18, 2006. The situation is not entirely the same: this is not a play-in game, because Oregon State lurks the following week. And yet I feel the need to restate just what’s at stake, in the grand scheme of things. And so here you go: a rerun.)

This is it. The Rose Bowl is on the line. A game that Cal can win to potentially end 50 years of frustration. To help the faithful Cal fans reach one of their lifelong — and, at times, seemingly insurmountable — sports goals.

I have said for many years now that I have only two sports wishes in my life. One is for my beloved San Francisco Giants to win a World Series. (Hope Russ Ortiz still has that ball.) The other is for my beloved Cal Bears to play in (not win, just play in) the Rose Bowl.

And now a (perhaps temporary) sense of calm has settled over me. I can’t play in the game, have no control over the outcome. USC has been, over the last few years, one of the most dominant teams in college football.

And all Cal has to do is win. Win, and erase 50 years of misery. Win, and heal feelings about Bruce Snyder and Roger Theder and Joe Kapp. Win, and give Cal fans something greater to hang their hats on than the crushing of a random trombone player. Win.

Thousands of trees have been chopped down to supply paper for navel-gazing Bostonians to write about what the Boston Red Sox curse, and its exorcism, meant to them. Cubs fans are famous for suffering endlessly at the hands of bad teams interspersed with the occasional moment of hope that’s immediately dashed by painful failure.

I understand what they feel. But it doesn’t go the other way. Most people outside of our little circle do not know the magnitude of what this would mean to us. Cal fans have suffered in silence, suffered through Tom Holmoe and Keith Gilbertson and the Joe Kapp years and many years of poor-to-mediocre play that preceded the appearance of my young self on the benches of Memorial Stadium.

I can’t speak for the new faces that have filled Memorial Stadium the last few years. I’m sure they’re excited, and I’m glad they’re aboard for the ride. But I speak as someone who has seen the lean times, who chanted the mantra “Keep It Close, Lose With Dignity,” who stood outside the stadium and cheered Tom Holmoe because Cal merely lost to Nebraska rather than getting blown out. Who watched Stanford run around with the axe innumerable years and then cap it off with their own inconceivable trip to the Rose Bowl. Who has seen older people from the benches around us disappear from this world during the off-season, never to see the Bears reach that goal.

The other week I was riding the bus to work and began to think about what I would do if Cal played in the Rose Bowl. I really couldn’t even get my arms around it, emotionally. And very quickly I stuffed it all back down under a pillow in a corner of my mind, promising myself that there was no point in running that emotional simulation when the goal was so far off. There would be plenty of time to live the event after it occurred, if somehow a series of ridiculous events that began with Cal hiring a brilliant football coach and recruiting a series of star players culminated in the most ridiculous event of all: a conference championship and a berth in the Rose Bowl.

There would be tears, certainly. And madness, incoherent shouting and whooping. And perhaps the distinct buzzing feeling that we’ve all been transported to some parallel universe where black is white and night is day and man bites dog.

But that’s all hypothetical. And it will remain so unless Jeff Tedford’s team does one thing in the Coliseum. One simple thing.

Win.

(Written by kencraw)

Note to readers: This is part of a two-post thread. The first is Confessions of a Bears fan

So, picking up where I left off, in the face of such a difficult challenge, why is it that I’m so optimistic?

I can say this, I’m not alone. Reading the various message boards there are optimistic people everywhere. A thousand different reasons are given for the optimism but all of them generally overlook the fundamentals of the game, trying to beat a very good defensive team in their stadium where they just about never lose.

So here’s my 6 point list on why there are reasons to be optimistic:

1. A win would exceed expectations: I’ll start with the reason for optimism that has nothing to do with the likelihood the Bears will win tomorrow. The first is that the Bears are in a position to do better than everyone expected. It’s a lot easier to be hopeful about a team that has generally met or exceeded expectations. Everyone expected USC to beat the Bears, so the worst than can happen tomorrow is that the Bears meet expectations by losing
2. Low scoring games favor the underdog: With the defenses being the units that are expected to be victorious, most people are expecting a low scoring game. Low scoring games tend to be good for the underdog. All it takes are a couple of lucky breaks, a missed assignment here or there, and the Bears could have a couple ‘undeserved’ scores that could be the difference in a low scoring affair.
3. Turnovers: The Bears are one of the best teams in the nation, turnover wise. A couple of big interceptions could make a huge difference in the game, particularly ones that either go for a touchdown or lead directly to a score. Sanchez may have his advantages over Booty, but one thing he is not is proven or mistake-free. A couple of timely interceptions could be all it takes to put the Bears over the top, particularly if it’s a low scoring game.
4. This team has heart: Something that has been missing from the team the last few years is heart. The 2002-2004 teams were remarkably determined teams that often WAY over-achieved. Some of their most disappointing losses were proof of that. Sometimes heart isn’t enough. But heart also gives you a shot a games you have no business winning. Heart can help you reel off 23 consecutive completions against USC in LA. Heart can help you go to Michigan and take down a highly ranked MSU team despite coming off a 1-10 season. The last few years, particularly ever since Ayoob collapsed, have lacked some of that heart. This team seems to have the heart back.
5. USC is over-looking this game: With USC still hoping for a BCS championship berth, their attention is on winning with style-points, not just winning. When one does that, they have the potential to forget the little things like holding on to the football and making sure to wrap up a runner instead of going for the big hit. One can’t say for sure whether USC will overlook the Bears, but it’s a possibility. They may come out flat. They may be mistake prone. In a low scoring affair, that may be all the Bears need.
6. It’s bound to happen sometime:If not now, when? Cal keeps going to LA and keeps coming up just a few points short. At some point, they’re going to have to break through. Just like they broke through in Eugene in 2007, at some point they’ll break through in LA. It’s just a matter of time. The question is whether that’s a matter of hours or of years.

Will these reasons matter tomorrow? An honest person would probably have to bet against them (well, if they weren’t getting nearly 3 TDs in the spread). But hope springs eternal and this Bear fan, while accepting that the Bears are probably going to lose, is pretty darned optimistic.

GO BEARS!

(Written by kencraw)

The Bears are going to get slaughtered. This weekend’s USDA butcher’s meeting has been moved to LA from Lincoln, Nebraska in anticipation of the slaughter.

It’s going to be ugly.

It’s going to be depressing.

That’s what I think when ever I look at this matchup both through the statistics and schedule/results analysis. It’s no different when I look at highlights and game-film. There’s just no way the Bears are going to be able to sustain a running game against this Trojan defense and I’m not optimistic that the Bears are going to have enough success through the air to compensate, particularly with Cigneti and Tedford calling the plays where they, mostly in a good way, refuse to give up on the run game.

No, the Bears can’t pull an Oregon state and win on the offensive line and use their running back’s unique blend of small-size, power and speed to control the ball. Best just isn’t that kind of back. Vereen’s actually closer, and although good, doesn’t seem to have the “flair” factor to pull it off. Add in the patch-work that is the Cal offensive line and that’s just not going to happen.

Yeah, the Bear’s defense is pretty darned good, and I think they can keep USC in check. Nevertheless, USC will probably be able to score in the low 20’s, perhaps only the mid to high teens with an excellent Bear performance. But I just don’t see the offense putting up enough points to win even with that good of a defensive performance.

Add to that fact that it’s going to be really hard for the defense to play that well when the offense is spitting out 3-and-outs like a jackpot spewing slot machine.

This isn’t the 2004 Bears that just missed. Heck, this isn’t even the 2006 Bears that only had 3 quarters in them.

The Bears are going to get slaughtered. Accept reality, OK?

Why is it then that I’m so darned optimistic today?

(More on that later)

(Written by kencraw)

My weekly statistical preview is posted over at BearTerritory.net:

http://cal.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=872939

This is a subscription article.

(Written by kencraw)

My weekly practice podcast is posted over at BearTerritory.net:

http://cal.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=872587

As a reminder, these are always free to listen to. Also remember that this week’s game being a road game, my OTRH podcast will have coach and player audio like the BearTerritory podcasts do during the week. Also remember that we will live-blog the game from our homes and the press-box.

(Written by kencraw)

Thanks to Al from mybearterritory.net for dropping me a line to give me a heads up, but ABC has picked up both the Oregon State game on November 15th and the Big Game on November 22nd. Both will be at 12:30 PM.

The Oregon State game was no surprise because of how important the showdown has become with Cal beating Oregon. The Big Game was more of a surprise because there was no ‘official’ ABC slot available for that time. However, the athletic department clearly pulled some strings to get the game on TV because it won’t be on the ‘normal’ regional ABC broadcast. Instead it will be shown just on the northern Cal ABC TV stations. Quoting from the note about this in the USC preview on calbears.com:

For the Big Game on Nov. 22, ABC will show the game over the air in the San Francisco, Sacramento, Fresno and Monterey markets in Northern California. Fans can also access the game nationwide through ESPN GamePlan.

So, for the 2nd year in a row every Cal game will be on TV. The only question remaining is what network the Washington game will be on, but we know it’ll be one of either FSN or ESPN. Here’s the remaining game schedule:

Date	Opponent	TV
11/8	USC	ABC @ 5:00 PM
11/15	OSU	ABC @ 12:30 PM
11/22	Big Game	ABC local @ 12:30 PM
12/6	UW	FSN @ 12:00 or ESPN(2) @ 5:00

UPDATE: Here’s the official release from calbears.com

(Written by kencraw)

#21 in the AP and #22 in the USA Today. All the way up to #16 in the score-weighted Sangarin computer ranking (sadly #35 in the unweighted ranking which results in #20 total there).

UPDATE: 21 in the BCS

(Written by kencraw)

Two weeks in a row of an on-time podcast… must be a trend or something! Unlike my normal podcasts where I try to be pretty professional, for this one, I was just too excited to contain myself and I just let the tape and thoughts flow. Have a listen to a one-of-a-kind OTRH podcast:

(Written by kencraw)

Every Cal fan knows that if the Bears win out, including beating USC in LA next Saturday, the Bears can not be denied the Rose Bowl. But what if they don’t win out? What then?

For starters, they don’t have to win out to win the Pac-10 and go to the Rose Bowl. If they beat USC and Oregon State, they can lose one of their last two games and still be the Pac-10 representative to the Rose Bowl IF (and remember this if) Arizona loses another game. So really, the team Cal most needs to lose a game is Arizona because otherwise they’ve got a one game buffer over Oregon and UCLA and could get a one game buffer over both USC and Oregon State with wins there.

The other scenario that could conceivably see the Bears in the Rose Bowl is the “back door” option with USC headed to the National Championship game. With Texas going down to Texas Tech that option continues to look better, although it is still a long-shot. There are now only three undefeated BCS teams and I think USC with a stong finish could easily be one of the top two one-loss teams. The bigger problem here is Cal has to get into the top 14 between now and the end of the season, and do it while losing to USC (a pre-requisite to this scenario). When you put together the percentages of both USC getting into the championship game AND Cal getting up to #14 while losing one more, particularly considering the lack of respect the Pac-10 is getting this year, it seems pretty unlikely.

So, Rose Bowl wise, it’s pretty much win the next two weeks and then either win out or win one of the final two combined with an Arizona loss at any point down the stretch.

But what about the rest of the bowls?

Here it gets WAY too complicated way too quick. I think if the Bears beat Oregon State and then doesn’t completely fall on their face the last two weeks, another trip to San Deigo and the Holiday bowl in in order. While the lesser Pac-10 bowls aren’t required to observe the tie-breakers, for the most part I expect them to do it unless their is a BIG attendance or TV advantage to a team. Since Cal is a fairly high team on the attendance and TV stage if the game isn’t in Texas, Cal is very likely to get the benefit of the doubt in a number of situations. So Arizona will likely lose out to Cal in a tie, even though they should get the tie-breaker.

Let’s say the Bears lose both of the next two weeks, what then? Then, unless Arizona falls on their face, it looks like it’s either Vegas or the San Francisco Nut Bowl based on how Oregon and Oregon State finish things out.

However, now that the Bears are bowl eligibile at 6-2, even a complete fall on the face means the Bears are going bowling and for those who wouldn’t mind taking their wives on a trip to Hawaii, it might provide some consolation should the Bears find themselves in a free-fall losing 3 or more of their 4 remaining games.

(Written by jsnell)

So, this was pretty much the most miserable I have ever been at a sporting event. Including years and years at Cal. From the mid-first quarter to early in the fourth quarter, it was raining hard.

I didn’t bring my snazzy camera, so all you get is an iPhone shot.

It was an odd game. At the start of both halves, Cal was on the ropes. The game started with a Cal turnover and an Oregon scoring drive. Things looked bad. But then Riley converted on third down (boy, they converted a lot of third downs Saturday) and the Bears were off for a 7-6 lead. Which expanded to the classic 9-6 lead (in a most unclassical way) after the Oregon long-snapper chucked one 30 yards out the back of the end zone.

But in the second half, the same thing happened. Oregon, tired of the terrible conditions, went exclusively to the option run. And it worked great for one drive. But all of a sudden, the Cal defense figured it out, and when Oregon tried to start passing again, it was bad news. The receivers’ hands had turned to stone and the passer’s arm wasn’t much better.

It was also a game where the side of the field you were playing on really mattered. At the end of the third quarter, Oregon was driving toward the south end. But the quarter ended and the teams flipped to the north end, which was full of standing water. All of a sudden the fates shifted with the weather. A failed field-goal at that cursed end later, Cal had the ball. Shortly thereafter, Oregon’s punt returned dropped a fair-catch punt, Cal recovered, and the Bears put the game away.

A weird game, for sure. But hey, a great outcome for Cal. On we go to USC.

Uni Watch: Cal broke out the all-yellow uniform combination for the first time. Can’t say I like it, though it was less awful than I thought it would be. It helps when you break out an odd uniform when you’re on the field with Oregon, because you’re guaranteed not to have the worst uniforms on the field. And in the rainy conditions, it was a little bit like the Bears were dressed as Team Raincoat.

The rest of us were dressed in raincoats, too.

By the end of the game, my clothes were soaked through — guess that raincoat has lost its waterproofing! — and my teeth were starting to chatter. But at least the rain stopped for the second half of the fourth quarter. Combined with Cal reasserting itself, that was enough to allow us to survive till the final gun. Which we did. I feel like we deserve a merit badge of some kind.

(Written by kencraw)

What a game… what A GAME! I’ve never been so happy to be soaked to the bone. Although I suspect if I’d dragged the wife and kids to the game I wouldn’t have been so thrilled about it.

In any case, the Bears won a key game for meeting expectations for the year. Here’s a list of posts that you can expect today from me:

1. On The Road Home podcast posted
2. Early look at bowl game scenarios
3. Video/Picture post on run game issues/success
4. Review of game