Early bowl game scenarios
(Written by kencraw)
Every Cal fan knows that if the Bears win out, including beating USC in LA next Saturday, the Bears can not be denied the Rose Bowl. But what if they don’t win out? What then?
For starters, they don’t have to win out to win the Pac-10 and go to the Rose Bowl. If they beat USC and Oregon State, they can lose one of their last two games and still be the Pac-10 representative to the Rose Bowl IF (and remember this if) Arizona loses another game. So really, the team Cal most needs to lose a game is Arizona because otherwise they’ve got a one game buffer over Oregon and UCLA and could get a one game buffer over both USC and Oregon State with wins there.
The other scenario that could conceivably see the Bears in the Rose Bowl is the “back door” option with USC headed to the National Championship game. With Texas going down to Texas Tech that option continues to look better, although it is still a long-shot. There are now only three undefeated BCS teams and I think USC with a stong finish could easily be one of the top two one-loss teams. The bigger problem here is Cal has to get into the top 14 between now and the end of the season, and do it while losing to USC (a pre-requisite to this scenario). When you put together the percentages of both USC getting into the championship game AND Cal getting up to #14 while losing one more, particularly considering the lack of respect the Pac-10 is getting this year, it seems pretty unlikely.
So, Rose Bowl wise, it’s pretty much win the next two weeks and then either win out or win one of the final two combined with an Arizona loss at any point down the stretch.
But what about the rest of the bowls?
Here it gets WAY too complicated way too quick. I think if the Bears beat Oregon State and then doesn’t completely fall on their face the last two weeks, another trip to San Deigo and the Holiday bowl in in order. While the lesser Pac-10 bowls aren’t required to observe the tie-breakers, for the most part I expect them to do it unless their is a BIG attendance or TV advantage to a team. Since Cal is a fairly high team on the attendance and TV stage if the game isn’t in Texas, Cal is very likely to get the benefit of the doubt in a number of situations. So Arizona will likely lose out to Cal in a tie, even though they should get the tie-breaker.
Let’s say the Bears lose both of the next two weeks, what then? Then, unless Arizona falls on their face, it looks like it’s either Vegas or the San Francisco Nut Bowl based on how Oregon and Oregon State finish things out.
However, now that the Bears are bowl eligibile at 6-2, even a complete fall on the face means the Bears are going bowling and for those who wouldn’t mind taking their wives on a trip to Hawaii, it might provide some consolation should the Bears find themselves in a free-fall losing 3 or more of their 4 remaining games.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
It’s an even year, so the Holiday Bowl (’04, ’06) is looking good. After losing to USC, I see the Bears winning out. Yes, I know this means winning in Corvallis. Cal will get the bowl bid over Zona because the Holiday Bowl people know Cal sells out Qualcomm. Zonies aren’t very popular in San Diego.
USC will not make the BCS championship game. Penn State is a lock for one team. It is highly likely that the SEC or Big 12 willl produce a one-loss champion, and that team would be ranked higher in the polls and computer analysis.
The Rose Bowl will be a rematch between USC and Ohio State. (With the same result.)
Cal will lose to OK State or Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl, finishing 9-4. Not bad for a lot of youth at wide receiver and running back.
Since I’m on a roll…buy stocks now, Obama in the White House and football Giants repeat.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:06 am
You picked all the easy one’s Rick. What about prop. 8? 🙂
The Bears would love a rematch against Texas Tech, particularly this year with how well they’re doing. The Bears will be up for that game and the 3-4 should be pretty successful. I’d be hopeful the Bears would win that game. In my opinion, OK State would be a tougher game, but another one I’d like to see.
I’ve got to agree with the rest of it, including USC in the BCS champ. game isn’t going to happen. The most recent BCS poll shows just how little consideration they’re getting and the rest of their schedule isn’t going to change that because Notre Dame and Cal won’t gain them any respect either (their only two remaining challenging games).
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 am
I don’t think Arizona will beat Oregon in Eugene, which will give them another loss. After watching the ASU-OSU game on Saturday, I am not sure CAL will lose to OSU. OSU didn’t look that good. I think they shot their wad against USC! Your idea of CAL going to Hawaii isn’t bad. We havn’t played in the Sun Bowl, maybe that’s a better choice.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Personally bar, I could care less if the Bears ever played in a Sun bowl. Yeah, it’s got the history of being a really long standing bowl, but I’m not going to spend $1000 going to a bowl game if I’m stuck in the middle of west Texas, particularly if the team is only good enough to be 3rd in conference. If I’m going to spend a lot on a mediocre Bear team bowl game, it needs to be somewhere like Hawaii.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Prop. 8 is hotter than Tedford after last year’s OSU game. I’m not going anywhere near that…
About Texas Tech…
Even though Cal’s defense has played well this year*, I don’t think they could keep Texas Tech under 30 points and the I don’t see Cal’s offense scoring more than 30 points against the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech this year is not the lucky team that beat Cal in the ’04 Holiday Bowl. They have better balance and have an exceptional wide receiver.
*I’m aware of only 2 quarters where the Cal defense played badly. Third qtr in Tucson and first qtr at Maryland. So far it’s been a good year for the 3-4.