Arizona preview
(Written by kencraw)
Today’s game is both very important (for bowl eligibility) and very dangerous. And it just got more dangerous:
We all know how much COVID shortages messed with the Bears in 2020… the big question is: Who’s out?
But the game was dangerous before that for a few reasons:
- It’s a road conference game in a place that has always caused the Bears trouble. There’s something about Tucson. The last time the Bears won in Tucson: 2004 (That’s not a typo)
- Winless teams are dangerous. They’re desperate for a win and they particularly bring out their best for the teams that seem vulnerable. And while the Bears play the last couple of weeks has raised the status of the team, I can guarantee you Arizona sees Cal as one of their few remaining “good” shots at a win (remaining teams: Cal, Utah, @WSU, @ASU).
- Winless teams are lull inducing. While I’m hopeful this won’t be the case, it’s not too hard to see the Bears looking past them to the critical USC game behind it.
With that caveat aside, let’s do the common opponent analysis:
- Both lost @ Oregon, Cal in a nailbiter, UA got blown out.
- Arizona went to boulder and got blown out, Cal blew out Colorado at home.
- Both lost a nailbiter to UW, Cal on the road, Arizona at home.
Only the last game suggests these might be comparable teams.
But I think this game comes down to heart. Does Cal come out ready to play and with no excuses in the back of their mind? And a big part of me thinks Wilcox has this team in a place where that’s a real possibility. I could see the Bears starting like they did against Nevada, but that being so demoralizing for a team already tempted toward despair and the Bears win a blowout.
I could also see a game where Cal comes out flat, gets down something like 10-3 at halftime and then has to battle their way back with an offense short a couple of key guys due to COVID. And I could see that not going well.
But my official prediction is that it’s a dog-fight where some might accuse the Bears of coming out flat but really it’s the missing players and Arizona coming out ready to win. But come the 4th quarter, the Bears run game wears them down and wins going away: 30-20