End of season thoughts
(Written by kencraw)
A handful of random thoughts now that the season was over:
- Cheez-it bowl? I liked the name a lot better when it was the Copper bowl or the Insight Bowl. Nevertheless, I’m happy to see the Bears in a bowl game. I think the outcome will be pretty important for the trajectory of the program. 8-5 looks a lot better than 7-6 and beating another Power 5 school in a year where the Pac-12 was pretty lowly regarded (not without cause) will be to Cal’s benefit.
- When I look back at the season, I see a combination of both missed opportunities and a lot of good luck. The missed opportunities start with Arizona. I’m still not sure how the Bears lost that game, although I think it starts with the Bears forcing a turnover that somehow became a forward pass to Arizona’s benefit. Add in the McIlwain experiment gone wrong, and it’s so disappointing Cal lost that game. Then of course there is WSU, the other most obvious case of the McIlwain experiment sinking the Bears. That’s two games that it would have been REALLY nice to have in the win column and there’s every reason to think that a couple of bounces/mistakes goes the Bears way.
- At the same time, don’t forget how many times the Bears got just enough bounces to their benefit. The USC win had a few. What if Weaver ends up 3 yards short of the endzone against UW? What if Colorado doesn’t spot Cal 14 points? (Admittedly those interceptions are a combination of good defense and opponent mistakes.) The season was a lot closer to being a big failure than we want to admit. Cal lost 2 games (Arizona and UCLA) that based on how they finished, Cal can’t afford to lose to if they want to be a bowl eligible team on a regular basis.
- Then there is the big question: Should Cal fire Baldwin and find a new OC. I’ve thought about this a lot and my final conclusion is ‘no’. I don’t feel very confident about that ‘no’, because Cal hides a lot of player information (most notably injury information). But if we assume that Bowers was injured in week 1 and it really was the plan for him to be the 2018 starter, then it’s hard to look at Baldwin and say he should be fired. As much as I was frustrated with the offense, there were enough things that broke the wrong way injury wise that one can be sure that Baldwin needs to be fired. He deserves a chance at redemption next year. He has enough history of HUGE offensive success at EWU as head coach that he deserves another shot. Plus, one of the things that this team is building is a good culture. I think having a former head coach as a coordinator is part of what is making that work.
- But it is important to finish with the positives, because overall this season was a good one. Wins over both USC and the eventual conference champion (UW) are hard to argue with. The only think that kept it from far exceeding our expectations was the Big Game loss. But a trip to a bowl game was the goal, and the team cleared that hurdle with a game to spare.
December 12th, 2018 at 12:43 pm
Bowers did have an injury: https://www.sfchronicle.com/collegesports/article/Cal-seeks-to-stop-skid-against-Oregon-State-13321382.php
“Ross Bowers was pulled in favor of the more mobile Chase Garbers and Brandon McIlwain at halftime of the season opener Sept. 1. Since then, it has been learned that Bowers, the incumbent, has a thumb injury believed to have occurred when he hit his hand on a helmet while throwing a pass in training camp.”
December 12th, 2018 at 2:43 pm
I could have written the sentence about the Bowers injury a little clearer.
It was not whether Bowers was injured that requires assumptions, but *when* he was injured. Cal confirmed the injury on 10/13, but at least as I’m aware, never confirmed when it happened. Some sources said it was in practice 4 or 5 weeks into the season while others said it was in the game during week one or like the source you quoted, all the way back in fall practice. We were told he got an MRI on 10/9. Some say that shows it was on the late side. And while that’s a reasonable thought, it’s also not proof. It’s a little odd if the injury was in early September or even August, but not completely unbelievable.
And the reason *when* makes a difference is it significantly changes how one might analyze Baldwin’s decision making process. If it was as late as week 5, then Bowers had already been benched and it’s not really helpful in a defense of Baldwin. But if it was early, including during the UNC game, then Baldwin didn’t have any choice in going to Garbers or McIlwain.