Worst loss since analysis
(Written by kencraw)
OK, I’ve done my thorough analysis and have the results for you.
Here’s the criteria for the magnitude of a loss (from most important to least):
- Disproportion of outcome vs. expectations. In other words, getting blown out when you were expecting a loss isn’t nearly as bad as getting blown out when one is expecting a big win.
- Objective difference in records or ranking. The lower the team is versus where Cal, is the worse it is.
- Implications on bowl eligibility or positioning, or ranking
- What it seems to indicate about the program’s state
- Actual score differential, with emphasis on low Cal scores
- Games one attended are worse (I realize this criteria makes it more subjective, but frankly there’s no avoiding that)
- Home games losses are worse
Working backwards in time:
- 2017 28 – 44 loss @Colorado: This was a hard one to take, and it officially put Cal in doubt of making a bowl. It also hurt because they had just lost to WSU who Cal had beat 37-3 just a few weeks earlier. However, Colorado and Cal were both middle of the conference teams and Cal only lost by 16 points on the road. Bad, but not 2018 UCLA bad.
- 2017 7 – 38 loss @ Washington: Point differential is similar, but on the road to an undefeated UW squad doesn’t match 0-5 UCLA at home.
- 2017 24 – 45 loss @ Oregon: This one hurts a lot in part because Oregon was without their starting QB for half the game and the Bears still couldn’t claw back in it. But objectively, the road game and Oregon’s historical quality make it fall short. Another bad, but not 2018 UCLA bad.
- 2016 21 – 56 loss @ WSU: WSU was pretty good that year and the game was on the road.
- 2016 27 – 66 loss vs. UW: Another good team. This one really hurt because it was the turning point when we knew the Cal defense was never going to be any good under Dykes. But still, that UW team was too good to match 0-5 UCLA, despite both games being at home.
- 2016 24 – 45 loss @ USC: I think we’re all too numb to losses in the LA Coliseum to be too affected by a loss like this anymore. Side note #1: Anyone as foolish as me and thinking of going to the USC game in LA this year? #2: That’s 3 games in a row in 2016 that made the list. Ouch!
- 2015 28 – 44 loss @ Oregon: This one hurt because Oregon wasn’t very good this year and it was a relatively good year for the Bears. But a 16 point loss on the road just doesn’t cut it here.
- 2014 7 – 31 vs. UW: I don’t remember much about this game other than it was a letdown after a few close games that preceded it. Overall the Bears were on an upward trajectory and it wasn’t hard to accept this loss as part of the growing pains.
- Ignoring all of 2013: We knew the cupboard was bare and it was going to take Dykes time to rebuild.
- 2012 14 – 62 @ OSU: This seems like a real contender to be the one. It ended Tedford’s career at Cal after all. But OSU was 7-2 going into that game. If this was the 2018 Beavers, then it probably would be the previous worst loss.
- 2012 17 – 59 vs. Oregon: The wheels had fallen off the bus on the Tedford era by this game. Oregon was an exceptionally good team. It stung, but not like last Saturday.
- 2012 27 – 49 @Utah: Another real contender. I had the misfortune of going to this game. I was so angry after the game I put $137 on a table, took a picture of it and said it was for the Fire Tedford fund. Cal was 3-5 entering the game against a 2-5 Utah that was relatively new to the conference. Cal had an outside shot at bowl eligibility with a weak UW team immediately after that game. It would then just take an upset over either Oregon or OSU to get to bowl eligibility. Instead Cal didn’t win again in 2012 and Tedford was fired. This one scores high on criteria 1, 3, 4, and 6 with partial points for 2. While I think a strong argument could be made for this game, let’s keep going and see what we can find.
- 2011 14 – 31 @UCLA: I remember how much this game hurt. Luckily the Bears finished strong down the stretch. There’s no arguing that UCLA team was worse than the 2018 team and the margin was far closer.
- 2011 9 – 30 vs. USC: Another game that would have really hurt if we weren’t so used to getting our butts kicked by USC.
- 2011 15 – 43 @Oregon: Another stinker, and at a time hope was re-building after 2010, but Oregon was the Pac-12 champs that year and thus it doesn’t compare.
- 2010 13 – 16 vs. UW: Sometimes it’s not just about the score. Last game in the old Memorial stadium and a win would have made the Bears bowl eligible. UW was mediocre. And it all came down to 4th and goal at the 1 and all Cal had to do was stop it. Somehow the Bears let them run up the middle for a score. UGH! But, as much as this one still sticks with me, the score was too close to really be a contender.
- 2010 14 – 48 @ USC: This was one of those USC games that got Cal fans very used to losing big to USC.
- 2009 10 – 42 @ UW: Another real contender. Cal was 8-3 and lost HUGE to 4-7 UW. To make matters worse, this was my last game as a Cal reporter and I got food poisoning at the game. I was throwing up all night. The flight home was horrible (I went with the don’t eat anything so there’s nothing to throw up on the flight strategy). Yeah, this was a really bad one. It came on the back of two really uplifting wins over Arizona and Stanford (the Bears last Big Game win). It also pushed the Bears WAY down the bowl priority list and they ended up in the Poinsettia as opposed to the Sun or Holiday. Yup, definitely one worth considering as worse. Scores high on criteria 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6, with partial points on 4. But a few more games back there’s one that tops it.
- 2009 3 – 30 vs. USC: USC beat downs are so boring at this point. However, if the Bears hadn’t lost big at Oregon the week before this game would be a contender. There were very high hopes entering 2009 and to lose this bad to USC early in the season was very disappointing.
- 2009 3 – 42 @ Oregon: And this is where it ends for me. This was the game that was worse that 2018 UCLA. Oregon had lost to Boise St., and barely beat Purdue and pre-Pac-12 Utah. They were very weak this year (or so we thought). Cal was undefeated and back to it’s powerhouse Tedford self (or so we thought). I was there. And it was one of the most soul crushing experiences of my football watching life. The Bears were beat so badly that sites like CGB were in full melt-down mode (like this week). I remember that Danzig (I think that’s who made it) who was known for making highlight YouTube videos every week made a video that was merely a minute and a half of Oregon cheerleaders. Not a single play of the game. This one fits criteria 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 and partial points for 2 (OK, Oregon wasn’t considered top end, but they weren’t 0-5 either).
So there you have it, in my opinion, the UCLA game was the worst game since 2009 Oregon, where 2012 Utah and 2009 UW are the possible other contenders.