(Written by kencraw)

Well, I finally had a prediction that wasn’t too horribly wrong.  I got the margin of loss correct, but was off by one TD for both teams.  However, what I didn’t predict was that the Cal offense would out perform the USC offense minus turnovers.  Cal definitely could have won this game.  It was very much in reach right up until the ball slipped out of Bowers hands for the easy interception/fumble (it was called a fumble) at the Cal 3 yard line.  At that point, Bower’s youth caught up with him and he made a few too many mistakes.  It’s worth running down each of the interceptions after that point:

• 13 minutes left in 4th quarter:  Bowers tries to split the safeties on a deep pass and completely misjudges their ability to close the gap.  This was the very definition of a youthful desperate throw.  If he had time to think it through and wasn’t giving in to desperation, there’s no way he would have made this throw.  In other words, it was all a mental error on Bowers part.
• 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter: Bowers throws a weak lob downfield to nobody and into USC’s hands.  The key to understanding this one is seeing the receiver on the sideline and the rusher in Bower’s face that prevented him from setting his feet.  I believe Bowers was trying to loft one between the corner and the safety (who appear to be in a cover-2) to the sideline to Wharton.  His goal was to put it where only Wharton could catch it.  However, he couldn’t step into the throw and perhaps at the last second realized that even what he was intending to do was a bad idea.  The result was that he didn’t throw it anywhere near where he intended and it just looked stupid.  So, this one was less of a mental error (call it 40%) and more of a throwing error (60%).
• 5 1/2 minutes left in the 4th quarter:  It’s worth noting that it was 4th and 5 at the opponent 30 yard line.  The QB is allowed to make a low percentage throw if that’s all that’s left to him.  An interception is no different than an incompletion.  However, it looks like the intended pass was a fade to the corner of the endzone but Bowers arm was hit as he threw the ball.  (This is unclear because they never showed a close-up/replay of the throw.)

When one adds that the 1st quarter interception was a deflection at the line, all of a sudden the hard stats of 4 interceptions doesn’t seem so bad as it was really just one huge mental error and one really bad throw combined with two justifiable ones.

Which brings me to my next point: Cal didn’t get any favors from the bounce of the ball.  One could have easily seen this game “bouncing” in favor of the Bears with just a few different outcomes one “luck” plays.  Great teams find ways to overcome that sort of thing, but the Bears are still young and learning, and were playing a reasonably good USC team.  Between the bounces and the mistakes, it was just too much against a team of USC’s caliber.

One thing that is not luck, but isn’t helping the Bears, is Matt Anderson.  What has happened to this guy?!?  I was a little hesitant to be too harsh on him because most of his misses this season have been from outside 40 yards and if Anderson had a flaw last year it was that his kicks aren’t very long and he loses accuracy on the long ones.  But Saturday he missed a sub 30 yard kick.  That’s close to inexcusable.  And he misses them all the same direction: To the left.

And think about the difference in how the game would have felt down 7 as opposed to 10 after the interception/fumble and touchdown by USC?  The game might have played out very differently and Bowers wouldn’t have been so likely to throw up that ill-advised decision only down one score.

But here’s the point I want to finish with: The Bears proved Saturday that they can beat any team in the conference.  They can run and pass against big/tough defenses.  They can defend against just about every kind of offense.  There’s not a game left on the schedule we should count the Bears out of.  This team is for real and they proved it by hanging with USC until youth got the best of Bowers.  But he’s going to learn a lot from that game and the rest of the conference better watch out.  Anyone who circled Cal as an easy game on the schedule better re-think that.

Call me disappointed but optimistic about the future.