(Written by kencraw)

When I did my pre-season predictions I predicted the Bears would go 9-3 and fall just short of the Rose Bowl, ending up somewhere around the Holiday Bowl. If you had told me at the time that the Bears were going to go 6-6 and end up in the Holiday Bowl I would have told you to do some basic math that the rest of us learned in Kindergarten.

But it turns out not everything we needed to learn was in Kindergarten because it appears that if the Bears win this Saturday, there’s a VERY good chance the Bears go to the Holiday bowl. Here’s what needs to happen:

Of course Cal needs to beat Washington, or everything else is a moot point. Also…

• Stanford needs to beat Oregon State, keeping them on track for an at-large BCS game (seeing Auburn lose helps that scenario too, opening up a Rose Bowl slot for Stanford with a non-AQ team in the BCS championship game, but is not necessary… there’s no reason the Fiesta wouldn’t want Stanford at 11-1).
• Oregon needs to win out and go to the National Championship game (also ensures OSU is not bowl eligible, in combination with OSU’s loss to Stanford).
• Finally, although again not absolutely necessary, USC and Arizona winning their rivalry games against UCLA and ASU respectively, keeps the math easier and the Holiday bowl doesn’t even get to pick between Cal and ASU or UCLA.

That seems like a lot of conditions, but in every case the favored team winning is to our advantage. But to be fair, the worst case scenario could see us FAR down the list:

If both Oregon and Stanford lose to OSU, they’ll take the Rose and Alamo bowls. Arizona and Oregon State will take the Holiday and Sun. In theory UCLA, if they beat ASU and USC could leap-frog Cal into the Vegas leaving Cal in the nut… er… Kraft “Fight Hunger” bowl in SF.

So, anywhere between the Holiday and Hungry Nut… but more likely close to the Holiday than the Fighting Nut.