Transitive property at its worst
(Written by kencraw)
OK, I admit it, I haven’t given 30 seconds thought to Nevada until today.
So I go look up their results to date and I find out two interesting things:
- Nevada is leading the nation in total offense (yards gained) at 592/game. But that’s not what this post is about despite it being interesting since the Bears are leading the nation with the least yards allowed at 160/game.
- We already have a psuedo-common opponent in Colorado State (the point of this post).
As we all know, the transitive property (Team A beat Team C, yet Team B lost to Team C, means Team A is better than Team B) doesn’t work consistently. It’s triple-trouble when you’re using margin of victory, when both teams either beat or lost to a common opponent. Therefore it’s got to be an order of magnitude more trouble to compare a team that only one of you played but the other one played as a common opponent.
But I’m going to do it anyway… 🙂
So, using the dubious transitive property, if Nevada beat Colorado State 51-6 and Colorado beat CSU 24-3, that means Nevada is better than CU. But we beat CU 52-7, so what’s the math for how much we would have beat CSU by? Is it more than 51-6? Could one just take margin of victory, so we’d beat CSU by 66 points?
In any case, I think the most aggressive thing to say about this odd connection point is that Nevada is likely a better team than Colorado, something many people were already saying, and we’ve got to face them on the road, a more difficult task.
So it does look like our “A” game this year is Nevada, not Colorado.
September 13th, 2010 at 11:40 am
Nevada is a well coached team that has strong leadership with a senior QB. Their running schemes are terrific. They will be much tougher than Colorado.
Cal, being a much larger team, should control the line of scrimmage. I think Riley will have plenty of time to throw and Cal’s running game should take a step up.
Nevada will get plenty of ground yards, but Cal’s safeties can do a lot to prevent Nevada rushing from dominating the game. (Like they do to everyone else except Boise State.) Cal should be able to single cover Nevada’s receivers.
The stadium is small and there will be many Cal fans, so it may seem like a neutral field. Even though Nevada is a good team, I think Cal will win decisively.
September 13th, 2010 at 11:44 am
I think you do a road trip with the boys. There are some good buffets up there. Not as good as the ones in Vegas.
September 13th, 2010 at 11:52 am
That was the plan until I was reminded that it was a 7:00 PM game which is too late for them. Now I’m looking for someone else who wants to make the trip with me and get some last minute tickets.
September 13th, 2010 at 1:24 pm
Thanks, Ken, for taking my comments to heart! I’m glad you agree with my “Nevada is Cal’s ‘A’ game” assessment!
Also, while Nevada may have the best offense (and one of college football’s top QBs), their defense is dreadful. According to the NCAA, the Wolfpack owns the #70 overall defense in the country, just under the median.
I am in no way resting easy on this game, but I do believe that Cal is the better team and should win it rather impressively.