(Written by kencraw)

Over at BearInsider.com, they’re continuning on their unparalleled excellent coverage of the court case with their latest article, The SAHPC Case: What Happens Next?. Most of it covers what happens after an assumed favorable ruling for the University. The good news to me was the following:

UC has said they have made full preparations to begin work as soon as they are permitted to do so. One of the first steps would be the removal of the tree-sitters and the oak grove at the site so that excavations could begin.

That’s of course very good news. It’s also good news that the indication is that it will be very hard for the parties to get an additional injunction on appeal, both because of the inherent difficulty of doing so and because of the dollars required to get a bond if the City of Berkeley doesn’t join in the appeal, which is up in the air.

But all of those things are very much tempered by the worst quote in the whole thing:

Olson explained that in an appeal the entire case would have to be argued again in a court system that he said is much slower than the Superior Court where the case was first heard.

Did he just say SLOWER!?! How is that even possible?

So, thinking this all through, here’s what the Bears need:

1. Court to rule in favor of University. AND…
2. City of Berkeley decides not to join appeal. OR…
3. Appelate court refuses to allow injunction on appeal.

Being the pessimist I am on this subject, let’s run those statistical numbers based on my guesses as to the likelihood that they’ll occur. I figure we’ve got a 50% chance that the court rules in the University’s favor on ALL counts (because any count against means additional delays). I figure it’s a 50% chance that Berkeley doesn’t join the appeal. Finally, I only give the appelate court credit for a 25% chance they’ll refuse an injunction because they’ll be suckered by the whole “irrepairable damage” crud for allowing the project to move forward.

So, 0.5 + 0.5*(0.5 * 0.75) = 68.75% chance this project is going to get further delayed by my humble estimates and admittedly somewhat pessimistic numbers.

Those aren’t numbers I like. I don’t pray about football (minus the safety of the team), but every day it keeps feeling to me like only hope for this project’s completion before Tedfor bails is the most fervent, humble prayers.

But maybe I’m just being too pessimistic.