(Written by Ken Crawford)

(Today we start the looking back series for the 2009 season. We’re going to continue the trend of doing these in “matching order” instead of chronological order. Today we match last year’s “C” non-conference team, Eastern Washington with this year’s “C” non-conference team, UC Davis. Go here for past looking back posts.)

Pre-Game notes and thoughts:
What a difference a year makes. It’s nearly impossible to get one’s mind around the thought that the Bears started the season last year ranked 12th and were ranked 10th at the start of this game. Of course there was no reason to fear Eastern Washington despite what Tedford rightly does to pump up his team. Cal had shown no problem with similar teams like Portland State in previous years. The Bears had been firing on all cylinders the previous week against a Maryland team that at the time, people thought were pretty good (it turned out they stunk). Everyone saw this game as a tune-up for the Minnesota game the following week.

Scoring and momentum changing plays:

• The EWU returner slipped while coming out of his shoe and went down to 1 knee at the 6 yard line, putting EWU in a hole off the opening kickoff.
• Alualu got a quick sack at the goal-line on 1st down and EWU barely avoided a safety.
• On 2nd down the Bears were robbed of a safety on a run play. There’s NO WAY the RB got out.
• EWU only managed a 32 yard punt, setting up the Bears at the EWU 36 for their first drive of the game.
• Brian Holley broke a tackle and kept his knees off the ground and extending for a 21 yard kickoff down to the 3 yard-line.
• A QB sneak gets the TD. Bears up early: 7-0
• In a rare mistake by Syd’Quan, EWU’s Bryce get’s quite a bit of separation on the outside for a 30 yard gain down to the Cal 25.
• EWU executes a perfect play-action TE rollout in the redzone for a touchdown. Game is tied 10 minutes into the game: 7-7
• Best busts a 30-yard run through a sizable hole to start Cal’s 2nd drive.
• The Bears have to punt and Anger’s very high punt lands at the 3 but the Bears can’t keep it in.
• The Bears run a creative counter-toss play to Best, who just barely goes out of bounds 30 yards up-field, preventing the 70+ yard TD run.
• Vereen runs two nice between the tackles plays in the redzone and scores the touchdown. Bears back in front: 14-7
• Mohamed gets a sack off the outside, forcing a fumble, and Kendricks scoops and runs, only getting stopped inside the EWU 5 yard line.
• Option pitch to Best on 3rd down and goal is fumbled, but Cal recovers and kicks the short field goal. Bears up by 10: 17-7.
• EWU went for it on 4th and short and the Bears break up the pass, giving Cal good field position.
• Bears run the “Best as WR matched up against a LB” play that worked so well last season for another TD. Bears extend their lead: 24-7
• EWU gets their first sack of the game late in the 2nd quarter.
• Vereen returned a 50 yard kickoff return to start the 2nd half.
• Sofele ran a fly sweep for 15 yards, completely juking a defender out of his shoes.
• Best runs an easy 1-yard touchdown to extend the Cal lead: 31-7
• The Cal defense stuffed runs on 2nd, 3rd and 4th and short to get a turnover on downs on the first EWU drive of the 2nd half.
• D’Amato misses a medium distance field-goal after the Cal drive sputters.
• Vereen gets his 2nd touchdown at the goal-line. Bears up big: 38-7
• Anthony Miller runs a great seam route that Riley hit him with great timing getting the Bears down into the redzone.
• Vereen runs another redzone run between the tackles for his 3rd touchdown, putting the seal on an already out of touch game: 45-7
• Sofele runs a surprisingly easy TD as the backup tailback and the Bears pile on: 52-7
• Chris Little gets a sack (Bear’s 4th of the game) on 3rd down forcing a longer field-goal attempt for EWU, which falls short when the EWU kicker duffs it.
• DeBoskie-Johnson busts a 35 yard run as EWU’s D-line looks exhausted.
• DeBoskie-Johnson finishes off the drive that was mostly his with a 2 yard TD run. Closing in on 60: 59-7

Observations:

• The Bear defense seems to have the EWU offense pretty bottled up early in the game, but only on 2 out of every 3 plays. EWU has no consistency, but got just enough plays strung together on their 2nd drive to get that TD. All the big gains were through the air as the focus was stopping the run.
• On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense early was all about the run game. They were just over-powering the EWU line and so the Bears weren’t trying much through the air. However, when they did, there wasn’t much success.
• In the first half it was quite apparent the the Cal secondary and the zones they were running were not all that effective. The fact that they were so suspect against an FCS team bodes poorly. Of course we learned the rest of that as the season wore on, but this should have been a big warning sign.
• The Bears started substituting in 2nd and 3rd string guys late in the 3rd quarter and the value of the game slowed significantly at that point.
• The wide receivers for Cal were pretty inconsistent. Occasional drops, occasional half efforts assuming they won’t get the ball, etc.. Considering that the Bears stuck to the run game for the most part, the WR’s needed to make the most of their opportunities and they didn’t.
• Despite Tedford doing all the right things to pull off the accelerator in the 4th quarter, the backups and the generic, run out the clock play calling was working surprisingly effectively against a tired EWU. That says a lot about the future of the Bears when the backups are not enough of a step down to not have effect of taking the foot off the accelerator.

Implications for 2010:
This was a bit of a lazy game for the 1st string. The 2nd and 3rd string is who really ran up the score. Part of that is an opponent like EWU (or UC Davis) is going to tend to over-exert themselves early in a vain attempt to pull the upset. Fans shouldn’t be too worried if the Bears are only leading by a little when the 2nd quarter starts. It could still easily be a blowout by the time the final gun goes off. What also should give some optimism is how well the 2nd and 3rd string did. Since the best of these guys are taking over for the graduating seniors, it gives reason for hope that the Bears have a bright future.

Conclusion:
It’s always hard to take too much away from a game against an FCS team, so I won’t belabor the point too much. Overall, the Bears have shown the determination and talent to put the FCS teams away without breaking too much of a sweat.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

The long talked about game-by game predictions are here:

UC Davis @ Cal => 13-38: Many will be picking a bigger score here, and if were purely based on talent and coaching, I would as well, but Davis will come out strong under the delusion that they can repeat their upset over Stanford, keeping the score in check early and Tedford will pull off the accelerator in the 4th quarter right when we could have exploded into a very high score.

Colorado @ Cal => 13 – 35: I know Colorado scares some people, but they don’t scare me. This is a team that is in a free-fall. They were 3-9 last year, losing to teams like Toledo and Colorado State. The feeling on campus is that coach Hawkins would have been fired last year if his buyout wasn’t so big. I expect the Bears to win this one easily.

Cal @ Nevada => 42-24: This is another one that has some people nervous and why shouldn’t they be. We’ve struggled on the road in non-conference play, anyone remember 2008 Maryland? I think that just like last year against Minnesota, these Bears are weary of treating road games lightly and will come with all their force to an over-appreciated (and that’s good, in this case) Nevada team that won’t be able to handle the size and speed of Cal. I do expect Nevada’s quirky offense to give the Bears a little bit of trouble, and that’s why they get 24 points, but the game should never be in doubt.

Cal @ Arizona => 20-24: For whatever reason Cal can’t seem to get the job done in Arizona. I expect it to feel very similar to the 2008 contest in that one feels like the Bears could win this game if they could get firing on all cylinders, but for whatever reason they don’t. I also expect a heroic effort by the Bear defense that keeps our hopes alive for way too long. This game will feel bigger than it is because both teams will be ranked and undefeated coming in and Arizona will be able to milk the win for quite a while.

UCLA @ Cal => 17-45: UCLA is to Cal in Berkeley as Cal is to Arizona in Tempe. They just can’t get it done. Plus, this is a UCLA team that couldn’t beat the Bears in their home stadium, the Rose Bowl. This “pistol” offense at UCLA will have long since been exposed after losses to K-State, Stanford and Texas have them at 2-3, maybe even 1-4 if Houston can have some of their 2009 magic back.

Cal @ USC => 24-31: At first I had this as a defensive struggle because there’s something about Tedford and Carroll that generally result in a defensive struggle. But as much as everyone likes to think USC is some uninterrupted set of greatness and it doesn’t matter that Carroll left like a flash as soon as sanctions looked eminent, it DOES matter. Nevertheless, I think the Bears will come up short in this one even though for the first time since 2004, they’ll actually get some offense going.

ASU @ Cal => 12-35: Dennis Erickson is not long for the Pac-10 and the way I’m reading their schedule, they’ll be on a 4 game losing streak and on the back-end of a 3-game road stretch when they come to Cal. That’s going to be a recipe for a team that has given up and gives up the ghost pretty early in this one, scoring only 4 field goals.

Cal @ OSU => 17-20: The Bears have struggled against Oregon State and generally it’s been the OSU defense stifling the Bear offense. I expect that to remain true in 2010 and the Bears are going to come home from Corvallis a frustrating 5-3. There’s a chance that the Bears come away with this win. The defense is going to have to come away with another strong performance and Tedford is going to have to FINALLY beat coach Riley’s press coverage that has given the Bears so much trouble. It also could be that OSU is pretty beat down as well, as it’s conceivable they’re 2-4 after tough road games to Arizona and UW, back up their tough non-conference schedule. At the same time, this is a team that could be undefeated and very highly ranked when the Bears come a knocking. I’d prefer to take a wait-and-see approach to this game, but a game-by-game prediction post doesn’t have much room for that.

Cal @ WSU => 38-17: WSU will look better this year and be 3-6 (wins over Montana St., SMU and ASU), riding high off keeping their bowl hopes alive versus ASU the previous week in Tempe. They’ll end up falling three games short though and Cal will put an end to those dreams. Hope for a 4 PM kickoff on TV. The 7 PM TV slot could be a more dicey game and we’d prefer for the game to be on TV wouldn’t we?

Oregon @ Cal => 20-31: It’s payback time and the Bears will know it. They’ll be playing loose and hard having ensured bowl eligibility the week before and wanting to show every citizen of Oregon how much of a fluke last year’s game was. Oregon will still be struggling to get back to their former selves with Masoli off the team. Plus, expect them to be a little over-confident with their easy early schedule. They’ll be 8-1, the lone loss being to USC who won’t be in Rose Bowl contention and think too little of the Golden Bears. Then we’ll find ourselves in the odd situation of rooting for them to beat Arizona the following week to keep our Rose Bowl hopes alive and then praying for OSU to take them down.

Stanford @ Cal => 17-38: I’ve got only two things to say: Tedford: 7-1 vs. the Trees. Harbaugh: 1-2 and 0-1 on the road. IT. AIN’T. GONNA. HAPPEN. TREES! As the guy from Berkeley Toyota used to say: Nobody Beats Berkeley! They never have and they never will!

Washington @ Cal => 24-35: This has trap game written all over it. The good news is that if things go the way we hope, the Bears, even after these results, will still have a very real shot at the Rose Bowl. We’ll need the above sequence with Oregon and Arizona, but that should be about it. The bad news is that I have UW at 4-6 coming into this game. With WSU after the Bears, they’ll know bowl eligibility is in striking distance if they can win this one. Add in that the stadium should be half empty and it’s a perfect trap game. You can put that out of your mind now because this game is revenge part II. The Bears won’t forget the debacle in Seattle and will keep their high level bowl hopes alive.

So there you have it, 9-3 with 6-3 in conference play. If the conference beats itself up, with USC out of the mix, the Bears could be Rose Bowl bound. But OSU and Arizona will be the trouble-makers who need to lose those key games as will Oregon, albeit two less since a tie with the Ducks is OK and they’ve got the loss from us on the schedule, where a tie with OSU or Arizona won’t do us any good, so they’ll need to lose two others.

Let’s see how it plays out.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

The beginning of the season depth chart was released. You can get it here.

Here are my thoughts:

• It’s amazing how much weaker the O-Line looks without MSG on the depth chart. Luckily the good news is that he’ll likely get some playing time on Saturday and will likely start vs. Colorado assuming he doesn’t get re-injured. Nevertheless, seeing Edwards back in the starting spot is worrisome, particularly at tackle. It’s no wonder that MSG is targeted for right tackle when he’s healthy.
• It’s been a slow progression, but it’s pretty official now that Sweeney has leapfrogged Mansion. If I had to guess, next year’s QB competition will be between Sweeney and Hinder unless Mansion does something substantial to improve his stock.
• Now that Michael Calvin, someone who for whatever reason I probably have more faith in than I should, has replaced Coleman Edmond (not shown on linked depth chart but reported by Okanes), I think that’s a pretty solid set of WR’s.
• Write this one down: you’re not going to see a lot of fullback play this year. Kapp, while he may have very good technique and be as good as his body allows, just doesn’t have the frame to be a good fullback. Every time I saw him in practice he looked small and over-powered. He did surprisingly well considering that, but you can’t overcome physics for too long. Stevens might end up doing a good job down the road but he’s still growing into the roll. He could be a noted strength in 2011.
• At tight end, I’ve always liked Miller and Ladner has shown lots of potential. I expect those two to continue growing as the season progresses and could be a key position in keeping defenses honest.
• I haven’t got to see the running backs practice this spring/fall, but I was pretty surprised by Sofele beating out DeBoskie-Johnson. Maybe they’re thinking that Vereen gives them the power they need, so Sofele is a better change of pace, but I’d sure like to see the power DeBoskie offers. Going further, I’ve always been very impressed with DeBoskie when I’ve seen him. While Sofele offers something sweet particularly in things like the fly-sweep, he hasn’t shown to me to be an every-down type of back. It may be when we lose Vereen that DeBoskie takes over that role, even though Sofele will have been the backup in the meantime and will still get plenty of playing time.
• I’m pretty excited about our D-Line. These 3 guys, Jordan, Payne and Owusu have the fundamentals, the size and the potential. If Jordan get’s consistent, and Payne and Owusu make the jump, this could be the Pac-10’s best defensive line.
• Linebacker is the defensive equivalent of the O-line. I look at that group and am very underwhelmed. I guess Kendricks and Holt have potential, but something in me says they won’t make the leap. Browner will be serviceable in the same way that Edwards can be, but don’t expect anything special out of him… ever.
• The much maligned secondary doesn’t look as bad to me as I feared. Hagan can still do well. I’ve always been a Josh Hill fan. In fact, those 4 safeties, Conte, Campbell, Hill and Cattouse, that’s a talented group in a position to make an impact. I think between Marc Anthony and Nnabuife there will be some mistakes that’ll cause some groans, but they’ll be serviceable, probably even more so than Edwards and Browner.

Overall, this feels like a solid group. There’s no area that’s worse that serviceable and good scheming can limit that exposure. Even when the opponent’s scheming exposes those areas, they’ll still be serviceable, so we won’t be seeing massive collapses anywhere from my view.

In the end, Riley will likely be the key. If he can make the senior leap, this could be a special season. If not, it could be another “disappointing” bowl season.

(Written by Jason Snell)

We’re back like a recurring hamstring strain!

In this first podcast for 2010, Jason Snell and Ken Crawford discuss the podcast that we never bothered to post, and preview the entire 2010 football season. Plus, Jason talks about where he’s sitting — that part’s truly riveting, by the way — and we pretty much yammer on for an hour. But hey! You’re not tired of us yet, right? RIGHT???!

 Hope Springs Eternal [65:16m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

(Written by Ken Crawford)

The unedited, unbalanced thoughts that rattle in my skull and make me want to travel to every game while buying tickets for the Rose Bowl right now:

• Never underestimate the senior QB: There’s a long lineage of Pac-10 QB’s who were question marks after multiple years as a starter who make a HUGE leap their senior year. Dixon at Oregon. Canfield at OSU. Boller at Cal. It’s not like Riley’s been horrible and there’s every reason to expect him to make the senior-leap. Just look at what Tedford’s been saying about him!
• Keenan Allen: The last time we signed a 5-star wide receiver his name was DeSean Jackson. He started his freshman year, even with Hawkins and Jordan around him. Allen broke into the starting lineup too. Why shouldn’t we expect great things? Add in Marvin Jones on the other side, who’s been getting better with every game plus Jeremy Ross backing them up and we could have a pretty good WR core.
• Shane Vereen is much better suited to Tedford’s offense: Best was awesome, but he wasn’t the grind it out RB that Cal’s offense depends on. When a defense was committed to stopping Best, they could. Sure Best might still break out a 95 yard run for a TD, but otherwise he’d be pretty bottled up. Vereen gets the hard yards. Everyone who saw him at the Big Game knows what he’s capable of and it’s going to open up a lot of possibilities in the passing game as Vereen continues to get 6 yards a carry even with a loaded box.
• Anthony Miller is healthy: Anthony Miller was pretty good before he got injured and never really got back to 100% in the last few games after coming back. Now he’s 100% and there’s every reason to believe he’ll be a key component in the 2010 offense.
• Defensive line ready for a breakout year: Cameron Jordan was awesome at times, inconsistent at others. Owuso and Payne have shown great potential. Those 3 are ready to come of age and be a dominating force on the defensive line.
• No substitute for experience on the O-line: Sure they’ve had some struggles and losing MSG for a while hurts, but there’s no substitute for experience and years of working together and this unit has that. All these guys have seen a lot of playing time, even Galas as a sophomore. They’re ready to take it to that next level, particularly now that it’s their 2nd year with their coach, Steve Marshall.
• Pendergast will give us the same edge the 3-4 did: Remember how that 3-4 had all the offenses in the Pac-10 off balance in 2008? Well, get ready for version 2 of that as Pendergast is going to unleash a new defense, an NFL grade defense, on an unsuspecting Pac-10 this year. That alone will make up for any deficiencies in personnel.
• Better recruits are going to make an impact: Sure we lost a guy or two, but we also kept the vast majority of the recruits of the last two years. People forget how thin our recruits were a few years back: 2007 and 2008 had only 5 4-stars. 2009 got the number to 6, but more importantly 2010 took the number to 8, and one of those is a 5-star. These players are going to make a difference, even this year. But just as importantly, it’ll make a bigger difference in years to come. Cal already has 4, 4-stars lined up for 2011.

See, things aren’t so bad in Berkeley. Why is it we’re ranked so low? Oh yeah, the final reason for hope: no high expectations to mess with the team’s psyche.

Next up: review of the depth chart

(Written by Ken Crawford)

This is the first in a two part series. Reasons for hope comes next.

The unedited, unbalanced thoughts in my head that cause me to despair:

• Recruits leaving or having problems: Before this season, the last 5 star Cal got was DeSean Jackson, so Cal fans were pretty stoked when we got 2 in the off-season in Keenan Allen and Chris Martin. Then Chris Martin drops the bomb that he’s transferring to Florida. What the heck!?! Not a week later we hear that 4-star Cecil Whiteside will grayshirt for academic eligibility reasons. What the DOUBLE heck!?! Why can’t we keep our best recruits? WHY!?!
• Riley hasn’t progressed: There was so much promise for Riley after 2007, but it hasn’t really materialized into a great QB. In 2008 we shook it off because the competition between Longshore and Riley didn’t help Riley’s confidence or consistency, frequently getting swapped out for Longshore. He was also still “young”. But 2009 it was all his show and he didn’t take the next step. We’ve now waited two seasons for the next step and have seen consistent mediocrity. Only a fool would think he’s going to make the next step in 2010.
• Key players have the injury bug: The last two years Best couldn’t stay healthy, but sadly the injury bug didn’t leave with him. Matt Summers-Gavin is awesome when he’s not on the bench and he’s hurt yet again. In fact, he’s not even on the depth chart right now. Derrick Hill has had his problems and now has GOUT!?! Vereen’s been injured in camp too. Now Cattouse is injured. There’s just not the depth on this team needed to overcome these problems.
• O-Line doesn’t have what it takes: While Tepper doesn’t seem like that big of a loss, with MSG out, the line is rebuilding. Sure Edwards is a senior, but when he’s playing at one of the tackle positions, that’s a bad sign. He’s never shown the ability to be better than mediocre. Add in 2 sophomores who have talent (Galas and Schwenke) but are relatively green and this unit is going to under perform again this year.
• Secondary has problems: With Syd gone, an already dicey secondary got far worse. Hagan has shown signs of brilliance but is far too inconsistent. Nnabuife’s inexperience was clear last year, despite being a junior. He’s got upstaged by Anthony who’s got very little experience. And Conte, everyone’s favorite kicking-boy is starting at safety. If that’s not a reason for despair, what is?
• Linebackers just not there: We’ve been used to great LB’s and while this group won’t be horrible, don’t expect a return of 2008 anytime soon. Mohamed is the real deal, but outside of him, everyone else has been inconsistent or has surprisingly little experience for their age. Kendricks was hit and miss last year. D.J. Holt has seen surprisingly little playing time and is now a starter and Browner is a senior who’s just now breaking into the starting lineup. This isn’t a recipe for success.

There you have it, all the worst thoughts from the worst corners of my brain. Don’t slit your throats yet, the reasons for hope are coming soon.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

The ExcuseMeForMyVoice Pick’Em league is ready for people to sign-up for the 2010 season.

Those who have participated in the past know that our league is unique in two ways that make it worth adding to whatever other fantasy/pick’em leagues you’re in:

1. You pick ALL Pac-10 games, both conference and non-conference, not games for the top-25 or other contrived group of teams. Let’s be honest, we’re Cal fans and we know the Pac-10 best. One’s ability to pick the winner of the Tennessee Tech @ Arkansas in week 1 and likely the Indiana State @ Cincinnati (Cinci being a team that you won’t get to pick for week 1, but at virtual #26, will likely be in the poll week 2) in week 2, doesn’t impress me. If it doesn’t impress you either, this is the league for you. Plus I’d like to be in a league where I get to pick the Cal game even when Holmoe is coach.
2. Scoring is not based on the spread or on confidence points, but instead on predicting the score accurately. You don’t just pick a winner, you predict the score, which adds another dimension and gives bragging rights for picking the exact score.

For those who didn’t need the sales pitch, the lone change this year is that I finally got the notification e-mails working so you’ll be less likely to forget to make a pick, something that is a bigger disaster with our scoring system than with traditional leagues. I’m 98% confident we won’t have a repeat of the 2008 debacle where most of you got a flood of 20-50 e-mails when the old system broke down. I also changed the way I get the game data that will no longer impact page load times, so the site should seem snappier, particularly on game days.

Sign up now by clicking on the “Pick’Em” link on the top or by going to:
http://excusemeformyvoice.com/pickem/

UPDATE at 10:30 AM: Login’s from last year won’t work. Everyone has to sign-up fresh each year. Of course you can re-use the same login info from the previous year, but you do have to sign-up again.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

There will be plenty more to come, but some opening thoughts:

• I can’t remember a season as potentially wide open as this one. Seriously, USC is already weakened and has a new coach and sanctions, Oregon is without its star QB, Oregon State is rebuilding in more ways than people care to admit, and up-and-coming teams like Stanford, Arizona, Washington and perhaps UCLA, well, what can I say, some kernels pop, some don’t. About the only thing clear is that WSU is going to still be in the losers bracket and ASU will likely be joining them.
• The “Old Blue” in me says, “Great, for 5 years we we’re poised to win the Pac-10 and now that the Pac-10 is open, Cal is struggling a bit.”
• The optimistic fan in me says that Cal is more in the mix than anyone wants to admit. If Riley can put it together and the new attacking defense can more resemble 2008’s performance as opposed to 2009, there’s no reason this team couldn’t be Rose Bowl bound.
• Personally, I think Washington is the most over appreciated team in the conference. They’ll be just like Stanford in 2008. After getting to 5-7 in 2007 with a generous schedule and a couple lucky wins, they were sure bowl eligibility was coming in 2008. Nope. 5-7 again. Same for the Huskies. I guess if they go 2-1 in non-conference play and beat BYU, they’ve got a shot at 6 wins, but I see them losing to USC, OSU, Oregon, Arizona, Cal and Stanford in conference play. Last I checked that would only get them to 5-7.
• Stanford is also on my “I’m not so sure about them” list, albeit not to the level of UW. AT Oregon, AT Notre Dame, and Oregon State late in the season won’t help them this year. Add in that USC will be out for revenge and it won’t matter that the game is in Palo Alto and the close Big Game will be in Berkeley, somewhere Stanford has struggled of late, and it’s not feeling like a year that they go even further than last year, particularly without Toby. Nevertheless, they’ll be a good team and we’re not talking about missing a bowl game, just not challenging for the Roses.
• The wildcard team of the conference is most definitely UCLA. This is a team that could end up at the losers table pretty early in the season but could also challenge for a Rose Bowl if all the pieces fall into place. Having Arizona, Oregon State and Stanford, 3 teams that are in the mix but not over-powering, at home will help them. If they could have swapped UW and WSU to get the Huskies at home it would have been their best scenario. At the same time, this team really hasn’t shown signs of putting it together yet, so God only knows what will happen with them other than that they’ll lose in Berkeley.
• The upward surprise of the conference in my humble opinion is WSU. OK, you can get up off the floor now, because I’m not predicting a run for the roses or anything. What I am predicting is 3-6 in conference play. They’re going to get overlooked by 2 teams, I’m not sure who, but it’s going to happen and then they’ll win one out-right, likely either ASU or UW (who will have just lost bowl eligibility in Berkeley the week before). They could easily be 5-7 overall this season with their non-conference schedule.

Next up: Reasons for despair (followed by reasons for hope)

(Written by Ken Crawford)

I know things have been quiet here on EMFMV for the last month or so, but now that the season is getting close you should expect to see a lot more action… but not for a couple more weeks.

I’ve got a big regatta that I host every year in early August (this year it’s 8/14, so closer to mid-August) and that really consumes my time in July and early August. Once that’s done, then football becomes hobby #1 (behind God, family and job of course, that’s why it’s a “hobby”). So, starting 8/15 expect to see the following:

• My game-by-game predictions (for what it is worth, I was 8-4 last year, missing USC, ASU (what was I thinking there?), OSU and UW (still ticks me off), but bravely predicted the loss to Oregon, the win over Stanford and Arizona even though they were unfashionable at the time.)
• Looking back posts for the last 3 2008 games (I’ll do the 2009 mid-season like I did for most of 2008 before I got overwhelmed by the reporting gig).
• Podcast from Jason and I
• New Pick’Em league, much like past years

Jason always takes an off-season sabbatical, but he should start posting sooner rather than later and get back into his regular flow.

Looking forward to a great season…

(Written by Ken Crawford)

Well, ironically, the “Pac-12″ part isn’t official, no new name has been officially chosen, but the fact that the conference will have 12 teams, the traditional 10 plus Colorado (announced last week) and Utah (announced officially today), is official.

Other than that, we don’t know a whole lot yet.

One thing we do know is that the conference HAS NOT decided on how to split the divisions. This is a bit of a surprise considering the information that had Colorado AD indicating they had been promised that they’d be part of the Pac-12 South with the AZ and southern Cal schools. However, from what I’m reading, people have been over-stating the confidence of that fact.

I suspect this is a bit of the telephone game. Larry Scott indicated to the Colorado AD something like “he’ll push for it” or “it’s the most likely case” and the Colorado AD told his contacts that “it’s what I wanted and they are agreeable” and that got morphed into “Colorado was guaranteed it”. Or some similar scenario. Since there’s no official quote from either the Colorado AD or Scott, it’s hard to take those indications as gospel.

We also don’t know for sure there will be a conference championship game (although there will be) or whether the Pac-10 will setup their own TV network (I’d say it’s got a 70% likelihood). Additionally we don’t know if there will be 8 or 9 conference games. We also don’t know what year Colorado will be joining, although it’ll either be 2011 or 2012.

What we do know is that Utah will join in 2011, and that indicates that it’s likely that there will be an attempt to have Colorado come at the same time, however the Big-12 leaving early penalty might impact the decision away from what the Pac-12 would like.

I think I’ve said my peace on what I think is best for the conference, and if Cal can get in the South, my mind will rest easy with what has happened, even if I’m not a big proponent of it. We’ve gained two quality programs and although I’m no big fan of it, the benefits of a conference championship game are hard to ignore. However, if we end up in the North, I’ll be grumbling about it for a long time to come.

More, including possible extended grumbling, to come… (I’m sure)

(Written by Ken Crawford)

Well, it appears my worst fears have come to pass. Texas has declined the offer to join the Pac-10, thereby killing any chance of any other major Big-12 team from heading our way either. That leaves 3 likely possibilities:

1. Pac-11: The “default” answer at this point is that nothing else happens, leaving the Pac-10 with 11 teams now that Colorado has officially joined.
2. Pac-12 and Cal in South: The Pac-12 picks up one other team, everyone is assuming it’ll be Utah, but there are some other possibilities that could be pursued, particularly if Utah turns us down. In either case, the assumption is that the conference will be split north/south and Cal and Stanford/the new two with Colorado are the border teams. For this scenario, we’ll assume Cal and Stanford end up in the South and the new two end up in the North.
3. Pac-12 and Cal in the North: Same as above but Cal and Stanford end up in the North and the new two end up in the South.

In my opinion, all three of these are a downgrade over what the conference has now, and only option #3 is anything but a disaster.

For what it is worth, both Denver and Salt Lake are at higher latitudes than Cal and Stanford, although they’re admittedly close (Berkeley is just south of latitude 38, Stanford is just north of lat 37 and Denver and SLC are north of 39 and 40 degrees respectively. To define close, by comparison Portland, Oregon is at 45 and LA is at 34). But as we all implicitly know, latitudes are likely to be one of the last things to decide the split up.

Here’s what I see as the “storyline”. When the teams met for their annual conference, the question of expansion came up and both the Pac-16 and Pac-12 were discussed. In the end both were approved. I’m absolutely confident that both Cal and Stanford were very clear that for the Pac-12 situation that they wanted to be in the South with USC and UCLA. The only question is whether Larry Scott talked them out of it. His point of course would be that we’d be far more likely to attract new teams if we paired them with USC and UCLA.

What’s the answer to whether Larry Scott talked them out of it? Nobody knows for sure, but the Colorado fans seem to think that they’d be paired with USC and UCLA. However, that could easily just be their hopes influencing their thoughts as much as any real info.

It also could be that no promises were made to Colorado, meaning they’d be put in the North if possible, but Larry Scott is keeping the USC/UCLA pairing in his back pocket for negotiations with Utah or whichever team makes team number 12. It might be that Colorado wasn’t insistent, but the next team will be.

So it’s very possible that the answer isn’t even known by insiders like Scott.

In either case, the Pac-11 stinks, stinks, stinks like replacing a toilet with a failed wax seal. Colorado by itself just isn’t worth the lost symmetry and all that made the Pac-10 awesome and we don’t gain anything meaningful like a conference championship game or a notably easier schedule. While the Pac-12 offers something more, a conference championship game and not having to play our difficult full round-robin, being paired with the north will stink worse than the Pac-11.

The north will get less respect and it’ll actually be the more difficult division, particularly if the UW rebound continues apace and UCLA can’t put it together. Plus we’ll lose out on our yearly games versus USC and UCLA. Sure the other teams don’t care about that as much as we do, but there’s no other way to look at it than Cal and Stanford are getting the shortest straw of the group.

Put Cal in the south and it’s closer to an equal situation as the current setup. Obviously we gain a fair amount in the conference championship game and the TV revenue upsides, but I like the round-robin myself. There’s ups and downs to either equation.

But think about this: What’s clear is that neither the north nor the south really want these two new teams. They both want Cal and Stanford. What does it mean when nobody wants the two teams that are supposedly brought in to improve the conference? Doesn’t that say something about whether this is inherently a good deal?

In any case, let’s just hope that scenario #3 works out because everything else is a significant downgrade from where I sit.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

If you think the big news on Thursday June 10th, 2010 is that USC is getting a two-year post-season ban and losing 20 30 scholarships over a yet unknown period of 3 years, you are absolutely, moronically wrong (not that there’s anything wrong with that!).

The Big News is that Colorado has officially joined the Pac-10.

Thirty years from now, the USC news will be a footnote, the Pac-10 expansion will be a key moment in the conference.

People have asked what I think about the “Pac-16″ (or I’ve heard it referred to as the SAT (surf and turf) conference) and I haven’t completed a post on the subject because I can’t make up my mind. But here’s what I am confident of, I have no interest in the Pac-12 with Colorado and Utah. That scenario loses all that is special about the Pac-10 with its round-robin and natural rivalries without gaining enough in return. So I guess at this point, I just became a proponent of the Pac-16 since the only alternative is either the Pac-12 or even worse, the Pac-11, now that the Colorado announcement is official.

As for the Pac-16, I like the fact that we’re looking at a Pac-8 division in the conference. That’ll work out nicely. I like the fact that the conference championship game will help us in publicity as a conference. I also like the fact that we’ll get access to the Big-12 bowl lineup which is far better than the Pac-10.

However, there are some downsides. We end up losing some bowl slots in bowls that formerly had both a Pac-10 and Big-12 alignment. They’re not going to keep two slots, so the combined conference will lose a spot. If it was only one bowl, but it’s 2 1/2: Alamo, Holiday, and Sun every other year. Add that to the fact that there’s going to be a whole lot of extra competition for those bowl slots and it’s at least a bit worrisome that perhaps the added bowls won’t be enough to improve the situation for the existing Pac-10 teams. I’d want to see the bowls be forced to pick fairly based on team success and not just “pick in order”, which gets very complicated with a two division conference.

I’m also VERY against conference games against the other half that COUNT (and I can’t emphasize this enough) for who is the division champion. I’d love to play Texas every few years, but I most definitely don’t like the idea that the year that we play Texas in Texas ends up being the year we’d otherwise win the Pac-8 division except for that loss sinking us. The same goes for Oklahoma. No, it better be just the 7 games in the division that determine the division winner. I hate, hate, HATE how the current 12 team conferences do it and it’ll be even worse with 8 teams because at most there will only be 2 out-of-division conference games and there’s just no way to “balance” those games so that it doesn’t unduly affect the division standings.

So, from where I sit, if we either only play 7 conference games or if we play 8 or 9 but only the 7 within the division count for the division standings and our new bowl alignments are significantly better than our current alignments (so much so that even though we’ve got these extra teams and lost a few spots, we’re in better shape), then I’d be happy if the Pac-16 came to pass.

Particularly now that the deed is done with Colorado and expansion is officially underway.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

Word on the street is that USC has been hit with a two-year bowl ban, starting in 2010 and 20 lost scholarships over a yet undisclosed period of years (likely either 2 or 4) Update on 6/11 at noon: when the official report came out yesterday afternoon it turns out it was 30 over 3 years, which means no more than 15 new signees each year and no more than 75 total for the next 3 years (end update). It’ll also have to vacate its wins in 2004.

Some people think this is big news, but other than the Bears having a slightly better shot at winning the Pac-10 and going to the Rose Bowl the next couple years, I don’t think it means much. It’s not enough to effect USC’s program overall. The recruits who have yet to commit are very unlikely to be effected. Plus, particularly if the 20 30 scholarships are over 4 3 years, it’s not going to prevent USC from getting many recruits. Over 2 years may have a larger effect.

So from where I sit, USC will be back to it’s dominant position in two three years time, unless Kiffen turns out to be a bust (which I don’t think he will).

(Written by Ken Crawford)

Continuing on from the depressing Bottom-10 worst games, I give you the Top-10 favorite games. Let’s be clear about what this list is. It’s MY favorite games. It’s not the best games the Bears played. It’s not the most important victories. It’s the games that I carry close to my heart and was very thankful to be a part of (similar to how the Bottom-10 are the ones that pain me the most, which were not necessarily the games that were the worst for the program).

You’ll notice that all of the games were games I was in attendance for. That’s because no game, no matter how special, can rank well against the emotions that go along with being there in person. Luckily I’ve been in attendance for just about every meaningful game during the Tedford era (the 2003 USC game and the 2003 Insight Bowl being the most notable exceptions, both missed because of a recently born son). So without much further adieu, here’s the list:

#10 – 2008 ASU game

Something about ASU always gets under my skin. Maybe it was their constant over ranking in the last decade. Maybe it was the personalities of their key players and coaches. Even still, the 2008 edition particularly got under my skin, what with their undeserved 2007 esteem (that was one of the most schedule aided over-ranked teams in history), Carpenter’s whiny yet cocky attitude and Erickson’s smugness. Add in their completely undeserved victory over the Bears in 2007 and I couldn’t have disliked them more. So, despite them being 2-2 when they headed to Berkeley in the fall of 2008, I was more than ready to watch ASU take a soul-crushing loss at the hands of the Bears. And boy did the Bears deliver. Of course Follett’s sack of Carpenter was a high point, but the Bears gave me a warm feeling inside all afternoon with their dominating play.

#9 – 2006 UW game

The 2006 Washington game is a cautionary tale to anyone who is considering missing an “unimportant” game. The Bears were supposed to cruise to victory that day. Instead the crowd in Strawberry Canyon were treated to an epic thriller. The Bears trailed for most of the day but Marshawn was unwilling to let the Bears lose. Between his halfback pass play that was busted up and turned into a cross field romp down to the 1 yard line and the final drive of regulation that put the Bears in front, he was unstoppable. The 2-point conversion to make that touchdown a 7 point lead and the ensuing Hail Mary that tied the game turned what was already an exciting game into an overtime thriller. Toss in Bishop’s interception that ended the game in overtime (after another Marshawn TD) where he was unsatisfied with taking a knee and tried to run it back the length of the field for a touchdown, followed by Marshawn jumping in the equipment cart to go pick up Bishop who ran out of gas before he got to the endzone and you’ve got one of the most enjoyable and memorable games in Berkeley.

#8 – 2005 Las Vegas Bowl

After such a disappointing 2nd half of the season in 2005, it was so nice to see the Bears finish of the season on a high note. The Big Game of course got it started in the final game of the season, but had the Bears lost to BYU in LV, I suspect the 2005 Big Game would have an emotional asterisks attached to it. Add in that it was the first bowl game I attended in person, and it’ll always hold a special place in my memory. That I had a great vacation on the back end of the game visit my Uncle’s desert ranch in Arizona after the game only makes the game that much more memorable. Not to overlook the game, Marshawn was in as fine form as he was in the UW game the following year and DeSean had his coming out party gaining him plenty of national attention that he took with him into his banner year in 2006. What a great game!

#7 – 2006 Oregon game

This day could properly be titled “The Day Memorial Came To Life”. Up until then, Memorial was a enjoyable place to watch a game, but it wasn’t feared by most opponents. Tedford had once or twice admitted he was a bit jealous of the home field advantage teams like Oregon (his old stomping grounds) and USC had, so he challenged us fans to bring the vocal heat that Saturday evening. Boy did we and boy did Oregon find themselves surprised by it. Ever since then, Memorial has been a place that opponents had to prepare for. Again, not to overlook the game itself, the interception on the first play of the game, the resulting TD on a classic Tedford TE slide out, the DeSean punt return for a touchdown, the hard hits on Dixon… another game with more great memories on the field. But really what sticks out in this one was it was the day us Bear fans realized there could be a 12th man in Berkeley. I remember thinking to myself, “This can’t be good for my young children’s eardrums and I’m loving every moment of it.”

#6 – 2006 Holiday Bowl

Obviously this is Cal’s biggest achievement as far as bowl games go and it was a great game. While TV viewers likely remember the end of game mutiny by Levy, for those there that was a non-incident. What was clear was watching a Cal team that hit harder, ran faster and made quick work of Texas A&M’s 300 lbs. running back who was supposed to be something special. All I saw was how hard 300 lbs. can fall. Also interesting is that despite going to only one of the three bowl games in San Diego, I picked the one the Bears actually won. Minus that aside, it was really the pinnacle of the Bears success. Everything since has been a bit more humble.

#5 – 2009 Big Game

The best games are the games that you REALLY want the Bears to win but fear the Bears won’t have what it takes. The top-5 with the exception of the 2002 Big Game fit that criteria. I was among the more optimistic about the Bears chances in Palo Alto last fall but I was enough of a realist to know that predicting a win was trouble. Then to watch the Bears quickly go down 0-14, all of our worst fears had come true. But how the rest of the 50 minutes of that game played out, oh what a sweet comeback. Add to it the end of game interception that sent me into a level of cheering that I doubt has ever been matched in my lifetime of Cal fandom. I think it was the first moment my kids realized that their father was just a little bit crazy.

#4 – 2000 UCLA game

While I have been a Bear fan my whole life, raised the son of an alum in Oakland, I didn’t go to my first game until I was out of college and got season tickets for myself. That was 1999. It was the depth of the Holmoe era. A new non-donor season ticket holder got tickets in section E, albeit in row 60. The bleachers were not packed and one could spread out a bit. The first two games I attended in 1999 were actually wins (one thing Holmoe did that kept him around longer than he otherwise would have been was he won a fair number of games at home to keep the home crowd happy), but by the time mid-2000 and UCLA came to town, any delusions of grandeur I had as a season ticket holder were long since erased. The Bears were 1-4 when UCLA came to town with a 4-1 record. We were going to get crushed and everyone knew it. But the Bears put up what was perhaps their best performance of the Holmoe era. While the details of the game escape me what I remember most was overtime. Overtime rules were relatively new to college football so there was a novelty there, but in addition the half full stadium created an environment that likely will never be seen again. As overtime started the ENTIRE fanbase slid out of their seats and down into the end of the stadium where the first overtime was held. All of us were on one end of the stadium. For the second overtime everyone slid down to the other end and then they came back again for the third overtime to the other side. In addition to getting in some extra walking in, it also was a special environment. We as fans were in this together. Seat assignments meant nothing. And we were rewarded for being a part of it with a thrilling triple overtime victory.

#3 – 2007 Tennessee game

There’s been no game in the last 10 years that had the magical and unique environment that existed on September 1st, 2007. It was opening day of what looked to be a promising season, the treesitters were in full force in the grove, the Cal game was nationally televised and we were playing the most prominent non-conference opponent of the Tedford era. The game could have crushed our souls, but instead we were treated to a wonderful performance by our Bears. Who can forget the Follett forced fumble on UT’s first drive and the ensuing scoop and run for a TD by Williams? Who can forget that punt return by DeSean, what was unquestionably his best punt return of his career? Remember Jahvid running stride for stride with him into the endzone? The Bears played a great one that day and it will not be forgotten.

#2 – 2002 Big Game

This is the only game in the top-5 that the Bears were “expected” to win. But nothing about the Big Game, particularly in those days, that could be called “expected”. The Bears had been favored other times in the 7 year losing streak. It was far too close to games like the 1990 game from the Bottom-10 to be anything but nervous. For those of you who are relatively new to the Cal Bear football scene, the games of the last decade have been some of the most predictable Big Games in the history of the series. 2007 to 2009 are more close to how things have gone over the history. ‘75, ‘82, ‘86, ‘90, ‘91, that’s the norm. Add in the reality that for all the years from when Snyder left until Tedford arrived, the only way Bear fans could hope for success was to pray for a Big Game win. God knew that there was no hope of winning seasons or much less bowl games, the Big Game was all we had to rest our hopes on. So despite the rebound during the rest of the season, nothing about what happened in 2002 would be complete until the losing streak to Stanford had been ended. All of that is a long way of saying there’s only one word to describe the resulting beat down: cathartic. It to this day marks the only time I’ve run onto the field after a game and I intend to save my next time for a similarly momentous occasion.

#1 – 2007 Oregon game

I hemmed and hawed over whether this belonged above or below the 2002 Big Game. But in the end it has three qualities that make it unique and thus put it over the top: It was a road game, I was working it as a reporter, and the teams were very highly ranked. For those who don’t know/remember, I ended up working this game as a mere coincidence. After working the 2006 season I had been relegated to analysis articles in 2007. Rivals wasn’t sending reporters to away games at that point. But I had an opportunity to go to the game with my brother and his friend Angel but I needed to get a ticket. Since I could do it on the cheap I called AW and asked him if he’d like me to work it for free, thus getting me into the game, and that’s how I ended up at the biggest road win of the Tedford era. The Bears were in top form that day and it was REALLY hard to keep my emotions in check in the pressbox where anything more than a tortured smile was not allowed. But what a game it was and I looked like an epileptic trying to keep my reflexive desires to jump up and down in check. Of course the highlight of this game was the Oregon fumble at the goal line and the ensuing long review, but there was so much more. It was DeSean’s best day of his career with a number of key grabs and one juke and run that left Oregon’s corner searching for his shoes while DeSean celebrated in the endzone. Longshore was at his best and Forsett gave a strong effort as well. It was something very special to be a part of, so special that it was the motivation for my proposals to BearTerritory.net to work road games for the 2008 and 2009 seasons. More than anything this game defined my path as a sports reporter and for that I’m truly grateful for how the Bears played that day. But even ignoring that, it was something special to be a part of and I’m thankful that I was there to witness it. The day ended with trying to interview Tedford and the team on the field while the small but loud Cal contingent partied in the stands. I knew the audio was going to suck and I probably wasn’t going to get many good quotes from being unable to transcribe the tape, but I didn’t care, let them cheer. It was probably the greatest moment of their Cal fandom for most of them too.

(Honorable mentions: 2008 Emerald Bowl: Would have made the cut if I didn’t have the flu, might have even still made the cut if I wasn’t working the game with the flu. 2005 Big Game: Great highs, Steve Levy at his peak, last Big Game with my brother at Stanford stadium, but a little too much like shooting fish in a barrel in retrospect, 2005 WSU game: A nail biter the Bears really needed to win on cold October night and I never felt more like a family with my fellow fans as that night, but in the end it was more relief that euphoria, keeping it off the list. 2008 Oregon game: Probably the closest of the honorable mentions to making the cut, I never had so much fun in the rain as the “standing water bowl”, but somehow 2008 ASU ranks a little higher. 2009 ASU game: Has the virtue of being the only game I was on the field for the game winning play and a great trip overall, but doesn’t cut it in the end for similar reasons to the 2005 WSU game.)

(Written by Ken Crawford)

Kat brought it to my attention that the comments had been effectively turned off. One had to have an account to comment and since we give readers no way to create an account, nobody but Jason or I could comment.

This happened to my other blog which also uses the wordpress software. When it happened there, I assumed I had made some mistake and accidentally enabled that “feature”. Now that it has happened on this blog I’m convinced that what happened is that some wordpress upgrade reset some portion of the settings and that was the result.

The worst part is that Jason and I were blind to it since we’re always logged in as users so that we can write posts. The result is that I’ve been fat, dumb and happy yet wondering why nobody has commented in the last couple months.

In any case, comments are now re-enabled. Enjoy!

(Written by Ken Crawford)

Over at CGB they’ve been doing some game lists, the most recent being ranking the Big Games of the decade. I’ve always been one to think that emulating a good idea is nothing to be ashamed of so I decided to make a couple lists myself. I wanted to put a personal touch on it, so I’m picking games that mean a lot to me. The first one, this one, will be the games that when I think about them I want to cry the most. The next post will be the games that carry a special place in my heart.

So, to get the bad out of the way, I give you my Bottom-10 personally most soul-crushing games:

#10 – 2004 Holiday Bowl

There are only two moments that are candidates for the high point in modern Cal football. One was when Cal was ranked #2 mid-season in 2007. The other was just before the 2004 Holiday Bowl started. I was slated to go to the game with my brother and uncle, but my wife was due with our 2nd baby in early January (if I’m remembering correctly the due date was January 7th). At my wife’s weekly prenatal checkup the week before the game, I waited with anticipation to hear the answer the question “how soon?” and found my hopes of going to the game crushed with the answer “any day now”. I’ve since learned that the medical profession’s ability to predict a due date ranks second only to the weather forecast in accuracy. In the end, even though Andrew wasn’t born until January 17th, it was probably a good thing I wasn’t there as this game would be much higher on my list if I had been forced to watch it in person. Nevertheless, deep in my subconscious, the question “where is the secondary?” continues to rattle in my brain to this day.

#9 – 2005 UCLA game

If there was an upside to the 2005 UCLA game it was that I was ahead of the curve in picking up Jones-Drew in my NFL fantasy league when he turned pro, but watching that game on TV and seeing the defense and special teams abused over and over by him makes that upside of little comfort. It took another 4 years for it to happen, but this was the day Alamar, the long loathed special teams coach, officially went on the hot seat. To add injury to insult, if my memory serves, this is still the largest 4th quarter lead blown (12 points) by Tedford’s Bears.

#8 – 2001 Arizona game

I know for those of you who’ve ramped up your fandom after Tedford’s arrival, this game probably seems like a random pick. But for those who were there, this was a disastrous loss. Arizona shared the bottom of the Pac-10 with the Bears on that fateful day, both being win-less in conference play. The fan base in those days had much lower expectations and the Bears being able to keep out of the cellar, while not exactly comforting, was at least something to build on. Win that one, pull off a miracle against Stanford and win at the 9-11 delayed game at Rutgers and the Bears could turn 0-7 into a then-respectable 3-8. Instead the Bears got owned that day with Holmoe showing off his patented “Let’s run it into the middle of the line on 3rd and 8. They couldn’t expect us to do that AGAIN!?! could they?” strategy. Somewhere mid-third quarter when it was clear that any halftime adjustments would not be saving the day, I completely lost it. I stood up and yelled out, “I CAN’T TAKE IT ANY MORE!” Then I walked out of the stadium. It remains the only time I’ve left a game early.

#7 – 2009 USC game

What can one really say about this one? We all remember all too well what happened. This was co-blogger Jason’s turn to walk out of the action and I think that speaks as much about the game as my walking out of the 2001 Arizona game. What a dreadful game that was. I think what makes it worse is that our pre-game hopes, that USC was weak that year, turned out to be every bit as true as we had hoped. What we didn’t expect is that the Bears would play their worst game against USC since Gilbertson was head coach and lost 61-0 to USC. (Caveat: the Bears lost 55-14 to USC in 2001, but that game, while the score was worse, was less of a blowout in principle IMHO.)

#6 – 2000 Big Game

All of the last 3 of Holmoe’s Big Games were a disappointment and I toyed with which of them would be the representative in the list. ‘99 had the distinction of the being the game where all of the scoring came from one of our cornerbacks (one INT for a touchdown and one kickoff for a touchdown), but in the end 2000 takes the cake because it went to overtime. After so many years of weak performances the Bears managed to get to overtime in the only overtime Big Game in history (there are number of ties in the series from the days before overtime). Sadly overtime was more reminiscent of the previous Big Games than it was of the previous 60 minutes and the game was over before we knew it.

#5 – 2008 Maryland game

In the big picture, this game wasn’t a horrible loss, but when you’ve traveled across the country and you aren’t used to humid heat, a loss like that sticks with you. Of course the storyline was that the Bears didn’t wake up in time for the game with the 9 AM PDT kickoff, but for those who were there, the heat was the key. Whenever the cloud cover grew thicker or the wind blew a bit it made a noticeable difference in the game. In the end, why the Bears lost is irrelevant because it was a REALLY long way to go to watch them show up so flat and yet again re-affirm both the East Coast idea that the Bears are a joke and so is the Pac-10.

#4 – 2007 Big Game

It’s interesting that two of my top 10 are games immediately before the birth of one of my boys. In this case it was my youngest, who was due a mere 5 days after the game (he was also late – 12/14). But in this case, two things had me going to the game anyway: One, it was driving distance from the hospital so I’d be unlikely to miss the birth, but just the first couple hours of the ordeal. Two, none of my kids have ever missed a Big Game in their lives and I intend to keep it that way. (I even had plans for my brother to take the boys to the game if labor arrived shortly before the game.) In any case, everyone knows what happened. The team that had been in a free-fall, but one that in everyone’s mind had to come to an abrupt stop with suck a weak Stanford in their way. Instead we were treated to another poor effort albeit against a stronger than expected Cardinal. Just like the 2004 Holiday Bowl, the depression of this loss was only ended when I was able to welcome a new son in to the world shortly thereafter.

#3 – 2006 Arizona game

At the time the game was a bit disappointing, but in retrospect this game eats at me like almost no other game. At the time, win or lose that game all the Bears had to do to get to the Rose Bowl was beat USC. But if the Bears had beat Arizona, it turns out they wouldn’t have needed to beat USC to go to the Rose Bowl. What a terrible fate. What horrible officiating. What a bad break on the size of DeSean’s shoe. What a terrible trip by Hawkins at the 1 yard line. What bad play calling on those failed goal line conversions. What ill advised passes by Longshore in those interceptions. What an amazingly depressing game.

#2 – 1990 Big Game

I’ll admit it, before I went to college I was a bandwagon Cal fan. My Dad’s alum, but he wasn’t (and isn’t) that into football. So when the Bears were good, I’d pay attention, but when they weren’t, I didn’t much care. I didn’t listen to the miraculous 1986 Big Game and I missed a lot of heart breaking losses during those poor years of the 80’s. But the late 80’s and early 90’s were good years and I was watching the 1990 Big Game on TV (one of the few in those days that was on TV). I still can’t believe they lost that game. I mean, it was just unbelievable, Stanford touchdown with 12 seconds left -> 2 point conversion that failed (hurray!)-> fans rush field and resulting 15 yard penalty -> onside kick recovery -> roughing the passer call -> 40 yard field goal and a win for the Cardinal. WRETCH! I’ve never felt so sick in my life as that night.

#1 – 2007 Oregon State game

The top two share the same essential elements: Highly regarded team and last minute melt down. Poor Riley to have to be the one who made the mistake, to get tackled with no timeouts and 13 seconds left when in field goal range to tie the game. To make matters worse I had brought my friend who’s an OSU alum to the game (what could it hurt to let him watch his team get beat, right?) and the memory of him jumping up and down going nuts while the rest of us hung our heads will pain me forever. It makes it even worse to have seen the team fall so far after that.

Honorable mentions: the 2003 Utah game that got 2003 off to a bad start, the 2004 USC game that prevented a national title run, the 2002 Air Force game that ended the great start to the Tedford era, the 2001 Big Game that made it 7 losses in a row, the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl that made 2009 so mediocre, the 1999 Big Game that mostly consisted of Stanford keeping the ball out of Delta O’Neil’s hands, the 2006 Tennessee game that only missed the list because of how good the 7-game win streak that followed was, the 2006 USC game that officially ended Cal’s runs at the Rose Bowl, the 2009 Oregon game that made me regret making the trip, and the 2007 ASU game that made me hate Dennis Dickson and his robot-celebration for life.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

There was an interesting set of posts over at CGB about how many games the Bears will win in 2010 and they got feedback from everyone asking what they thought the percentage chance that the Bears win each game from a bunch of people. End result was that the consensus was 8-4 with a likely loss to USC, 50-50 shot at Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona and UW (slightly better than that for UW, but close enough), accounting for 2 losses, and us likely losing to one of ASU, UCLA, Stanford or Nevada (i.e. a 75% chance of beating each). That more or less get’s one 8-4.

That felt about right to me. Then just because I was trying to escape the pile of work in front of me I watched both the Stanford and Arizona highlights that Danzig and crew put together and I think I’m a lot more optimistic on this season. Let me break it down:

I’ll concede the loss to USC and the 50/50 on both Oregon and Arizona. That gets us two losses. But here’s what I can say with confidence is NOT going to happen, in order of my confidence:

1. We’re not going to lose to ASU in Berkeley. No way, no how. That team has nothing of note to build on and things just look ugly for the “getting too tired” Erickson. Looks like 2007 was his last hurrah and even that was a heavily schedule aided hurrah.
2. We’re not going to lose to UCLA in Berkeley. 95% sure of that. We beat them in Pasadena last year to break the curse and they haven’t beat us in Berkeley going back a LONG ways, even including some Holmoe time. Add to that history that they’ve only got slightly more going for them than ASU and it’s just not going to happen.
3. UW is the most over appreciated team in the conference and the reason is that they beat Cal at the end of the season. If they had lost that game, nobody would think them any better than UCLA or ASU. But they beat Cal in a game the Bears never showed up for. That’s there entire resume minus beating a WAY over confident USC who was without their QB early in the season and Arizona having players who’s shoes shoot the ball 15 feet in the air. By the time they get to Berkeley after Thanksgiving having been beaten down with their tough road schedule and still having no hope of bowl eligibility, the Bears will handle them easily, particularly after the cautionary tale of 2009. Call me 90% confident of that win.

So that leaves Stanford, Nevada and Oregon State. To be fair, I could see the Bears losing two of those, but in the end I don’t think it’s going to happen. A loss to OSU is the most likely but something says to me that the OSU run of over-achieving has ended and the Bears will be hungry. Nevada is likely over-feared by Bear fans, which is a good thing, but the Bears notoriously do well during the non-conference games. That leaves only Stanford, which I think 7-1 vs. 1-2 speaks volumes for. Stanford is my #2 for most over-ranked team in the conference. Everyone will be onto their shtick in 2010 and Toby was more important than people realize. Luck won’t be so lucky in 2010.

So from my vantage point, they lose one of those three games, not two, and this is a 9-3 team, with upsides to 10-2 and 8-4 being the floor of acceptability.

Going back to the Stanford and Arizona videos. I really believe that Vereen is a better running back for the Cal system than Best. Best was spectacular, but he didn’t “grind it out”, which is what Tedford wants from his run game. I think the O-Line responded better to Vereen than they did to Best, not because they didn’t like Best (Best was dearly loved by the whole team), but because Vereen was the sort of back that got their testosterone pumping. His style had them hitting harder and playing harder. And that helped Riley too on the passing downs. That’s what I saw in those videos and I think it’s the key to 2010.

Add that to a new defensive scheme that won’t hang our secondary out to dry and a number of the weaker areas of the last couple years having a bit more experience on them, and I’m more optimistic than most.

So if we’re going to do an over/under for the 2010 season and 8-4 is the benchmark, put my money firmly on the over side. I don’t have delusions of a Rose Bowl run (OK, maybe in that part of me that’s truly delusional), but I do think this Cal Bear team is better than people think.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

Amenities… that’s what every stinking article about moving to AT&T park is all about. Amenities this, amenities that. Blaw, blaw, blaw, shortcomings this and that, but who cares, great Amenities!

At first I thought, OK, people like their nice amenities, I mean, it’s a big part of the reason for the renovation of Memorial, so I told myself to chill out and not worry about it.

But I’ve reached my breaking point. I read the word ‘amenities’ one to many times and now I’m going postal (or the blog equivalent thereof):

What the @($#@$#@!(R@!#$(@!#$P&(@!asld$!(@#$*@!#)$@!$#&(@!#$@!#$(* BS are you guys talking about!?!

We’ve played in amenity-less Memorial for 75+ years, with one more year to go. Why does it matter what kind of amenities our ONE YEAR replacement has? Why is this on the top of the priority list? Said another way, EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THE OPTIONS HAS S*I*G*N*I*F*I*C*A*N*T*L*Y BETTER AMENITIES THAN MEMORIAL!?!

So it’s not like we’d be taking a big step back to go play at Candlestick park. It’s not like they’ve been feverishly working to improve the amenities in Memorial in the EIGHT YEARS they’ve been working on this project. It’s not like this is a permanent move that if we didn’t have amenities, we’d be missing the point of a move. No, it’s ONE YEAR, and it’s one year that no matter where we go it’s going to be an amenity upgrade to Memorial.

To be clear, it’s not that there aren’t other upsides to AT&T, public transportation being the biggie. But that’s not what I’m reading over and over. What I’m reading over and over, just to belabor the point 3 times too many is:

Amenities

Amenities

Amenities

And a word for the wise: If you think you’re going to be getting beer at the games, think again. It’s still an NCAA and Pac-10 football game. This isn’t a bowl game where everyone looks the other way. It’s the regular season. I’ll make a bet with anyone who desires that I’ll buy them a domestic beer if they have it for the first game at AT&T if they’ll buy me a large soda if they don’t. Anyone game for that bet?

To be clear, I’m not against AT&T park, every option had their upsides and downsides (even, GASP!, without considering their amenities, GASP!).

But amenities should have been at the very bottom of the list of criteria. Talk to me about public transportation, gaining new fanbases, surrounding neighborhoods for pre/post-game stuff and a feeling of safety, financial considerations, quality of the field (oops! wrong choice!), seating capacity (oop! wrong choice!), scheduling issues (oop! wrong choice!), heck, even weather (oops! wrong choice!) but don’t talk to me about amenities.

So please, someone tell me why amenities are such a big deal?

(Written by Ken Crawford)

Word is coming down from two sources (Rich Lieberman and Okanes) that the deal has been finalized on where the Bears will play in 2011:

AT&T Park

As we all know, this is where the Giants play in San Francisco and where the Emerald Bowl is held, and it has the upside of being the nicest facility of the candidates (Oakland Coliseum, Candlestick and AT&T), but has the downside of small capacity, playing with a dirt infield in September (and maybe October if the Giants make a playoff run) (which the Coliseum has the same downside via the A’s), plus the weird sideline/odd corners problems that squeezing a football field onto that baseball field has. (UPDATE: It appears Cal will re-work the field so that both teams will not be on the same sideline like in the Emerald Bowl.)

Personally, this was my last choice of the 3, and it wasn’t even close. I wanted the Coliseum and actually waffled with wanting Candlestick as my #1 because there would NEVER be any baseball conflict issues. Part of that is I travel from a long way away no matter what so where it is in the Bay Area doesn’t matter much to me. Part of it is that I don’t care about nice amenities (even the Stick is a HUGE improvement over Memorial, so what do we care?). Add in the low capacity crowd and AT&T just doesn’t speak to me.

But I’m just one guy and lots of guys feel differently. It’s not a horrible situation, in fact it’s anything but. The way I see it, the headline should read something like this:

“Bears confident enough that renovation of stadium will actually happen in 2011 to enter into contract with replacement stadium for that season!”

For me, the prospect of sitting in a renovated Memorial stadium in just 28 months from now is something that will keep me smiling all day, even if AT&T park wasn’t on the top of my list.

(Written by Ken Crawford)

The Chronicle had an article on the settlement with the Panoramic Hill Association today:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/04/09/BA391CRRS7.DTL

Key quote:

The settlement with Panoramic Hill states that the university will pay $75,000 to cover the group’s attorney fees. It also allows the university to host only nine or fewer events that draw crowds of more than 10,000 people over a three-year period. Cal football games and graduations do not count.

So, basically, we had to pay them off, albeit it with a pretty small sum considering the hundreds of millions of dollars at stake here. The extra events limitation is not a big deal from where I sit. I always saw the University’s advancement of having more events there as a way for the University to keep its options open. The University never had any explicit plans to hold events there.